Thanks for draining the country dry Robbo.
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That would be the Aussie banks.
We had a credit rating upgrade if I recall under the last lot.
Ministry of Primary Industries warns chances of bird flu outbreak in New Zealand are rising
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...re-rising.html
have you done your homework to work out which stocks will get hammered if it did come here ?
Large Caps Vs. Small caps, value stocks and commodities https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQg7ppLDd-A
You're right. Time for smart professional trading and smart intelligent investment. Anything is attractive I will be
there. Even in a steep down market I have 2 smart trading. I can sell my 2 Australian ETFs and rotate them and add to my intelligent investment.Fingers crossed.
High unemployment can cause next crisis. Fortunately, still unemplyment rate has not gone up rapidly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih0LgO2cTgc
Sadly VG ...history I believe indicates that a major conflagration is well overdue.
This egg producer is riding high up by more than 4% and bucking the trend. Bird flu there has not affected and poultry stocks there going to get hit 52 weeks high. I took positions in consumer staples.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CALM...ycsrp_catchall
All going to plan ..eventually
From Westpac NZ Employment Confidence -
Turning for the worse
Employment confidence fell by 13 points to 91.4 in the June quarter, reaching its lowest level since 2020.
Jobs are seen as increasingly hard to come by, signalling a further rise in the unemployment rate in the months ahead.
Perceptions about pay growth and job security also declined.
Confidence was down across all regions and age groups.
History is repeating. If markets get hit with black swan events like banking crisis, debt crisis or any other asset crisis unemployment rate will be rocketed. As Long as depression is not there once markets enter bear market, it will follow the bull market. Much needed major corection in all time high assets are on the way.
I'm not sure that this is nothing more than a profit taking pull back. US stocks do seem expensive especially when sitting in depressed NZ, but profits of the tech titans has largely kept growing and some at pretty strong rates.
I am yet to see the catalyst for a sharp correction, obviously something from left field could eventuate, but then interest rates would probably be dropped quickly.
That got old quick...
Just kidding, NVDA in someways are taking the least risk by being the supplier to the other big tech firms who are making the big promises on the benefits AI will deliver.
There will always demand for faster chips well unless chip tech gets surpassed which is quite possible in the future.
That's not to say NVDA won't be at the front of the next evolution, but who knows, the risk to them and its a big risk, is its another player from left field.
Hard disagree. NVIDIA is equivalent to a mining services company, boom and bust.
Look at Sun or Intel during the dot com boom to see what happens to the share price.
Or Nvidia's history itself. Michael Frazis says this well.
Quote:
If you’ve been reading these notes you’ll know how bullish we’ve been on semiconductors, with Nvidia our top pick. We set extremely optimistic profit targets across our semiconductor exposure, and these were hit in the recent surge.
I am sure we’ll get another entry point - perhaps quite soon - and will go again. If you applied this approach systematically to Nvidia over the last 25 years, covering the dotcom crash, 2008-2009, COVID, 2022, and multiple 65-90% drawdowns, you earned nearly 3x the return of the stock itself (1500x vs 500x), with substantially lower drawdowns (53% vs 90%).
Australia CPI SHOCKER 4.0% …increase from May and higher than expected
Seems Reverse Bank Australia will have to hike rates in already stumbling into Recession economy.
All over the world employees have a high level of financial stress, particularly low-wage employees.I met a couple from Canada last week and they told me even with two people working buying a house is not that easy. Main reason for the current situation is all types of assets and things we use have rocketed.
VG essentially I believe that history...reading etc is no longer valued.
I understand that there is saying.
Fear those whose TV screens are bigger than their book shelves.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...antly-anz.html
Writing was on the wall long ago but now many more beginning to SEE it ...time to act for investment for future is NOW not 12 months later ...imho
No company is 100% risk free.
When a company is riding high, get crowded and trading historically high PE ratio I will try to find answers to the following questions.
1. Do they have a sustainable business model?
2. Is the current price reflects its real businee value? Is it overpriced or underpriced!
3.Are there better options in the market? I have.
4.will the history repeat in the tech sector like before? I think so 100%.
5.Will there be competitors?
6.Do they have a long term plan and sustainable growth?
if your invested big in the us markets the trump vrs biden debate on at 1pm nz time today
After the incompetent bumbling performance by Joey in the Presidential debate, expect a 500 point plus drop in the Dow overnight?
I understand that 70 % of Americans believe in angels and heaven.
20 % of Americans believe the moon landing is fake.
I reckon they get the president they deserve.
Every time Trump was asked a simple question he avoided answering it by going backwards to the previous issue. This was because he didn't know. But never mind he will sort it quickly with his charisma and negotiating skill ie brinkmanship. The world will become an even more scary place if he is elected.
The rot is deep.
I was listening to marco rubio (running for Trump VP) and apparently Europe wants to avoid spending on defence to fund expansive social programs. Really, like social security and SNAP in the US?
Yes, they avoid spending on defence but they also have the same pension liabilities (Social security is probably worse for the US) as they do and spend much less on healthcare and prisons per person. Lies upon lies.
As I said in a previous post, avid believers won't question. To not question makes you a dullard.
How many times has he said he is the most popular President in history? 🤣
He didn't even get the most votes in 2016, the archaic electoral system got him in.
And if it wasn't for the email debacle just before the election Hillary would have won.
Apparently he had the biggest crowd at an inauguration in history. 🤣
I watched about 15 minutes of the debate today & I would say he lied at least a dozen times just in that short period. "Everyone agreed" Etc. How many times did he say that?
Thank gawd we ain't America.
I can't disagree with any of what you say, except that ... get this, 74 million people, FFS, 74 million people voted for him! I find it difficult to get my head around 74 million "dullards" voted for this compulsive lying alternate universe egomaniac far quit. But almost more amazing, 81.3 m i l l i o n "dullards" voted for a senile candidate who would be better consigned to a dementia facility than the White House. Unbelievable, truely unbelievable, except it happened, and OMG ... it's happening again!!
Baa Baa I dont believe you are wrong.
Putin and Xi will be overjoyed if he gets back in.
He adores both.
Indeed they will be overjoyed, Trump is a kindred spirit and as close as you'll get to being a dictator in a democracy, and as the worlds largest superpower (for the time being), he would preside over powers to once again cuddle up to the other dictators like he did last time. Strange thing happened though, when he did that last time, global tensions subsided, USA withdrew from global conflicts, wars stopped. As he might say, he drained the swamp, or some of it at least, and the swamp didn't like it one bit.
Besides that, the USA was and might be again ruled by the same benign dictator immersed only in his own ego, but the world might again be in a less tumultuous space because of it. Quite the conundrum, hating someone because of their abhorrent behaviours but in TOTO thinking the world might be in a better place if it happened, if US hegemony and hubris were used to defuse global tensions, instead of inflaming them.
Bird Flu is not a dead cert to being a problem yet
"With avian influenza spreading quickly around the globe, the virus has more opportunities to mutate and cause problems for people. By some calculations, H5N1 bird flu is still at least two mutations away from widespread human infections, but experts warn that new flu symptoms in individuals at high risk are likely to start turning up in health systems this summer."
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle...&impID=6626722
"In 1997, a high-pathogenicity H5N1 avian influenza virus caused serious disease in both man and poultry in Hong Kong, China. Eighteen human cases of disease were recorded, six of which were fatal. This unique virus was eliminated through total depopulation of all poultry markets and chicken farms in December 1997. Other outbreaks of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) caused by H5N1 viruses occurred in poultry in 2001 and 2002. These H5N1 viruses isolated had different internal gene constellations to those isolated in 1997"
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1457...ecember%201997.
In US inflation expectations seem to be “well anchored”. University Michigan long-term inflation expectations just jumped to their highest level in … 31 years
Rather, I will worry about other types of bacterial and viral infections. Eg: Flesh eating bacterial disease.
https://www.outbreak.gov.au/current-...vian-influenza
The PCE index was better than expected, in fact probably couldn't have asked for better.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...ly-2024-06-28/
Deleted wrong thread
Company insolvencies and liquidations up, 474,000 people now behind on payments
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...nd-on-payments
And just to think Adrian Orr said at the last meeting they discussed the possibility of raising rates... As mentioned, I viewed this as talking tough rather than any likely action.
I think Orr will continue to talk tough until they are ready to act. A skill he should have learned a lot earlier, rather than saying too much.
Take a look at the nzsx50 and the snp500 over the last 6 months. One is nearly the same and the other is up close enough to 20%.
You couldn't find a rental in our area a year ago, people begging for one on Facebook, now there's a few and mostly new builds that are not selling or renting as quickly.
And moving to Aus seems as popular as it was in the late 80s.
employment and house prices havent really been smashed yet.... I guess they are both pretty slow moving so might play out over the next 18 months or so....
Salt Funds comment.........
"The key question for NZ investors to ask right now is how willeach stock fare when the OCR is suddenly cut by 50-100bp?We have been buying those names that should benefit, whileaccepting the risk that they may still have a little earnings riskstored up. At some point, our market will buy the lastdowngrade. We vividly remember how dreadful the recessionwas in 1990/91 but how strong the bull market was on theback of rate cuts in 1992/93."
Bull.... like you I have some bonds which will need selling early next year for huge profit so I can charge back into the sharemarket.....
He overshot it on the downside with .25 % OCR and was too timid to raise rates both fast enough and agressively to stop inflation.
It's no surprise he is overdoing it on the topside as well. They are not helped by using data that's 3 months out of date for their decisions .
They are always looking in the rear view mirror, when he should have daily data ( The banks have the EFTpos spend by the minute ) can't be that hard in an electronic age ....
So just like any commodity , or market in Boom or bust it overshoots and undershoots , the Governor is doing the same .....
He did overshoot, but that's easy to say in hindsight when no one really knew what was coming with Covid.
He was also the first to raise rates & they were raised aggressively compared to the rest of the world, but his biggest mistake imo was the language he used. Go hard, go early so we can bring rates down again quickly.
The latter part of that statement meant banks weren't passing on the full extent of the rate increases and the 2 & 3 year rates weren't where they should have been. That in turn meant rates had to stay higher for longer.
He obviously wasn't to know the impact of Gabriele, China's very lagged Covid response that impacted supply chains or that the Labour Government would continue spending like no tomorrow.
Most of those things have now passed, and I would hope that would start enter his thinking, although if he's smart, keep shum until they want to act on rates.
He needed to take a leaf out of Greenspan's goblygook speak which was quite a deliberate attempt to confuse markets and no one would have any real idea what he was thinking.
Hi Daytr "He was also the first to raise rates & they were raised aggressively compared to the rest of the world,"
This is a bit of misinformation , South Korea,Norway & the Czech republic beat him to it. When you say aggressively , initially they were only 25 point hikes . If 2.5 % was a neutral rate
back then he should have been hiking in bigger increments earlier to at least get it to a neutral rate.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...0%99s-business
OCR maybe heading down by end of this year (this is what I felt for a while)…… Many have been saying this who talk to business owners on the regular
May be overvlaued assets could have sell-off. I don't have any overvalued stocks.
https://www.aliteq.com/jp-morgan-predicts-a-major-us-stock-market-crash/#google_vignette
JP Morgan predicts a major US stock market crash
Deleted the duplicate message.
Retail spending slump nearly surpassing '80s sharemarket crash
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...remarket-crash
Global dairy prices fall to near three month low
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...hree-month-low
might be a cut in pay for farmers soon
Yep the media doing a great job on picking up and further sensationalising all the gloom and doom that economic commentators are coming up with.
The lady of TV1 news is one of the best at it.
Hope Adrian not listening and swayed into doing something rash
Meanwhile Rod Duke just getting on with it and doingnOK
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...AJR76JVHIP2IY/
Rods a legend.
Quoted from Bill Gates
"Saving like a pessimist,investing like an optimist"
Things can’t be too bad in NZ as 760,000 going to fly over the school holidays.
According to NZ Herald …..Nearly half a million customers are set to fly on the domestic network, and a further 274,000 are headed overseas, the airline said.
Just in Singapore airport after 6 weeks in Europe too. Boy it’s hot there!
Bleating? lol come on. Even King Duke said it is very very tough out there. All NZX co's (bar one or two) reporting is down and flying red warning flags..
Just need to take a walk down main street or your local mall to see vacancies. Go talk to the local cafe owner, or bookshop or florist or builder etc etc and ask them how things are going..
Maybe one last round of holidays for some living beyond there means. The middle class rolling over onto the new rates will drain the last reserves and then the economic hell will really kick in. Orr is going to be too slow to move so here comes the doom. Can hear the drums beating already.
Im talking the middle class and the small business owners which is the backbone of the country that are hurting. Not the top 10% of this country.
I've been looking at the JPY lately and it's come a very long way due to the interest rate yield differential. I've recently averaged a position at 161.510.
The NIKKEI has pretty much done the inverse of the currency in the last year or two & I have seen not so long ago a few big players talking up Japanese stocks.
I do wonder if buying now is more a currency play I.e they expect the JPY to strengthen once interest rates are cut in the US, or a more cynical view might be to entice buyers that they can sell into, to offload their position.
Either way I think the JPY could be a major mover once US rates start coming down.
What for people with a mortgage?
What about people without a mortgage, won't you decrease their disposable income if you lower rates on their savings?
As I write this I guess people have larger mortgages than savings accounts or term deposits. I guess I need to understand a bank's balance sheet to appreciate what the economy is built on. Sounds like hard work.
According to the Perplexity AI search results, 32 percent of New Zealand households have a mortgage on their primary residence. This means that approximately one-third of homeowners in New Zealand are currently paying off a mortgage.
It's important to note that homeownership rates in New Zealand have been declining over the past few decades.
Home ownership peaked in the 1990s at 73.8 percent of households, but by 2018, it had fallen to 64.5 percent, and 55% in 2019. This decline in overall homeownership rates may impact the proportion of homeowners with mortgages.
The data also reveals some interesting trends related to mortgages and homeownership in New Zealand:
The median property debt has increased significantly in recent years, reaching $260,000 in the year ended June 2021, which is up $56,000 over the previous three years.
Among older New Zealanders (aged 65 and above), the percentage of those who are mortgage-free has decreased from 78% in 2007 to 72% in 2017. This suggests that more retirees are carrying mortgage debt into their retirement years.
The number of New Zealanders with mortgages past the age of 65 has risen by 15% since June 2018, from 118,000 to 136,000.
Only 38 percent of people between the ages of 55 and 64 are mortgage-free, indicating that a significant portion of pre-retirees are still paying off their homes.
These statistics highlight the changing landscape of homeownership and mortgage debt in New Zealand, with more homeowners carrying mortgage debt later in life and facing higher property debt levels overall.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/mortg...ehold-debt-up/
Total household debt increased 29 percent from the year ended June 2018 to the year ended June 2021, Stats NZ said.
https://retirement.govt.nz/policy-an...home-ownership
Good stuff there moka …interesting
That home ownership rate decline is a bit of a worry
Home ownership rates started declining when RMA was introduced …message there somewhere
The $25.2 billion mortgage debt hanging over Kiwis aged 65-plus
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/the-25-2-billion-mortgage-debt-hanging-over-kiwis-aged-65-plus-44076
15% spike in the number of retirement-age homeowners still saddled with debt.
Since June 2018 the number of New Zealanders with mortgages past the age of 65 has risen 15% – from 118,000 to 136,000, according to data from credit bureau Centrix.
Even worse, is the 49% rise in total mortgage debt for over 65s in the same period, from $16.9 billion to $25.2bn.
The most recent figure, from June this year (2023), means that mortgage holders in the 65-plus age group have an average mortgage debt of $185,294.
While a third of homeowners in New Zealand are mortgage-free, the figures are a reminder that many Kiwis are likely to be heading into retirement saddled with sizeable mortgage debts.
McLaughlin says the trend has been partly driven by the higher cost of homes, failed marriages, and low interest rates over the past five years have made people more comfortable to take on debt than they might have been in the past. Back in the 1980s no one had mortgages over the age of 65, says McLaughlin. “You couldn’t get one. Nor could people extract money from their mortgages for consumer spending, or house renovations as they can now, says McLaughlin. Today over 65s have borrowed for a wide variety of reasons. “They are borrowing [against homes] to finance businesses, second homes, investment properties, beach houses. Lifestyle has changed.”
Some might argue that the house price to income ratio was best when interest rates were highest. Haven't interest rates been dropping for 20-30years since then, while debt has been growing as a percentage of GDP or as Moka points out over 65s entering retirement with debt.
Wouldn't lower rates just exacerbate the house price and debt problem.
Maybe we should just wait for the CPI figures. That should still work for asset owners unless consumer prices are still going up while house and asset prices are stable/down. That would be a conundrum, I suppose the CPI figures could be fiddled.
Disclaimer I don't currently have any debt (appreciate this is not the way to get rich but I am a conservative investor/saver). How about you RAWZ? We might be selfishly arguing what is best for us personally but mostly I would like to see that my kids and grandkids are able to afford a house without taking debt into retirement.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...CGZXD4PLHC354/
And another bank says things are tough. OCR should go down by end of this year, unless something silly happens.
Aaron...When interest rates were highest ...so was inflation.High inflation is great...it kills debt.
Assets like houses increased in value (in the 80s at least) insanely.
I could be wrong but I reckon taking on debt in a low inflation enviornment is well risky and could be considered as reckless.
I have a $1m mortgage and just refixed. Payments going from $5100 a month to $7150 a month. Yikes. But strong household income and decent pay rises saves our bacon. Plus the odd dividend.
Those 65+ with mortgages… honestly how the heck does that happen. What was the price of a house for them back in their 20s/30s?? $10,000 or something? How have they gone through life and grown their debt all the way to 65+?
The reverse mortgage product. What a wonderful thing.
I did wonder about immigration, and then there are those on student visas, and temporary workers, in 2017 abut 300,000 people.
For the year ended January 2024, New Zealand experienced a record net migration gain of 133,800 people. This represents a significant increase of over 114% compared to the net migration of 62,469 recorded in 2017.
In the year ended September 2023, there was a provisional estimate of 237,100 (± 2,200) migrant arrivals, which was up 183% compared to the previous year.
For the 2016/17 financial year, New Zealand had a net gain of 72,300 permanent and long-term migrants, which was 4.7% higher than the previous year and the highest net gain recorded at that time.
The number of people approved for residence in 2016/17 was 47,684, which was an 8% decrease from the previous year.
As of June 30, 2017, there were 75,578 student visa holders present in New Zealand, which was a 1% decrease from the previous year.
Also as of June 30, 2017, there were 152,432 temporary workers present in New Zealand, which was a 16% increase from the previous year.
It's important to note that immigration figures can fluctuate significantly from year to year due to various factors, including policy changes, economic conditions, and global events. The most recent data shows a substantial increase in net migration, largely driven by arrivals from countries such as India, the Philippines, and Fiji.