Who said AAPL was dead....7.26% pump to all time highs on the back of their long awaited announcement they are leaning into AI and mostly that an upgrade cycle of the iPhone will be accelerated by this
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Who said AAPL was dead....7.26% pump to all time highs on the back of their long awaited announcement they are leaning into AI and mostly that an upgrade cycle of the iPhone will be accelerated by this
I thought Musks comments on that interesting. He has a point about your data being handed off to a third party. He also has a vested interest in that he founded a competing AI company in xAI. Tomorrow is important - as they all are. I think the Fed has too many media calls but thats a discussion for another day :) I can't help but feel the market is on bit of an edge around this more than normal
Seems we are increasingly not as an attractive place to live for some. New PB for NZ: net loss of 56,500
https://nzherald.co.nz/business/leav...LG5LNKQRIKSXE/
Interestingly, migrant departure up 109% to 17,700. I wonder how many come here as a stepping stone to Australia
out today as well
New Zealand house prices plummet in May, Trade Me says
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...e-me-says.html
Thanks.The coronavirus also led to break down in the poultry supply chain. I, am fully into food sector. Poultry is my top food commodity. Way to go behind this sector is going behind strong companies with good management. Going to read "Hot commodities again". I like this sector because it gives
more returns than tech sector in the mid and long term. People can postpone luxury items but they can't postpone basic things.
its a bit foggy at the moment , to many lapdances and beers after a big day and not to mention my sore shoulder from throwing bills at those gyrating hips :drool: but anyway as expected sept on cards my pick for first cut. that mean nov for NZ eh
anyway need go home for sleep
plenty of news in NZ last day about bird flu , you can never be too ready.
good to see mpi taking steps now to talk about dairy cow strategies etc if it arrives. Of course big risk period is when wild birds fly here for migration time from infected country.
• " Our monthly add up shows that consumer prices fell 0.7% in May, with annual inflation trending lower. • Pricing pressures are cooling. Monetary policy is working. • Annual CPI inflation remains on track to fall below 3% before year end. This could provide scope for the RBNZ to deliver OCR cuts in 2024 providing that the circumstances warrant it. Consumer prices fell 0.7% in May (ASB estimates). Sharp falls in airfares and petrol contributed to much of the falls but underlying pricing pressures look to be moderating. The softening tone of the monthly pricing data provides us with greater confidence that CPI inflation will fall below 3% by year-end. The inflation fight is not yet over, but today’s data will be encouraging to the RBNZ. "
Things must be bad:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...K4ES5H34QIFKM/
Buy now pay later operator Laybuy suspends payment service
European stocks are heading for a another worst week. Sell-off has deepened in French markets. Time to hide in
defensive stocks.
Some guy on TV says dollar up strongly and 10y yields down (4.2%) is a warning sign that shouldn't be ignored
Usually when shares go down I'm scared to buy more because they might keep going down. So I invest when they're going up. But I think that's all wrong, now is the time to add.
but interest rates high, business failures are high, my guess is degree of pain out there is similar with more to come. This is no temporary dip as the waves of Covis wash in (again), but there are still more of those in the depth of Southern Winter. What do Agriculture, NZ Industry & Exports look like ?
What do defaults & foreclosures likely look like glancing ahead ?
Already evidence of pain underway in Unemployment figures, throw in accumulated affects of COL
further ramped up costs - rates, interest, insurance, electricity etc etc leads us where ?
Any domestic sectors showing outwards signs of romping ahead or prosperity now or ahead .. or not many ?
I'm afraid I'm more conservative & not prepared to call it the bottom or all over or anywhere near .. not just yet. NZX & sectors of ASX look vulnerable IMO
The decline in some NZX lines may continue further .. there aren't many still there that haven't reported some sort of collateral damage already or expected to impact going forward.
Being overly negative when the tide is about to turn can make one miss the best part of turnaround ...if one is investor and not trader then no need look for the juicy and surest middle part of the rally .....worst that can happen if one invests now in good quality scrips like MFT / SUM /IFT / FPH etc is just 3-6 months of timing mismatch ..am surely not talking about small caps with retail exposures ...also bear in mind its always the large caps which turn around and. run for. a while before the economy has actually bottomed. ...small caps join the rally when rally has actually matured ...see the example of US large cap vs Russell 2000 ...our large caps are already off the. blocks and making yearly highs ...FPH /CEN / IFT etc
PS : Reason maybe our local retail investors dont invest in our large caps like FPH etc ...they are controlled by intuitional investors and they are the ones investing now ...retail investors will join much latter when. they feel more sure !!!
Yeah it will be interesting to see where the signs first display themselves. I do wonder if the very NZX companies you describe already have a high concentration of investment due to their safe haven status and it will be perhaps the next tier down that gets the real wriggle on.
Indications of residential house price correction are appearing.
The consequences will be significant.
Only any good to the reduced pool unscathed out of the carnage so far & ready / game enough to jump in..
might be plenty on offer in a newly reappearing Buyer's Market & sea of high usary rates however,
with so many running for the door overseas, those trying to escape Equity wipe-out oblivion or slow
punishment by ever inflating costs, etc . The waiting buyer interest might be only a very brave bunch, no queue either seen & encouraged by the Gods of Inspired Crisis in recent past now largely absent ..
REINZ HPI data out today
National median house price down to $770k in May down from $790 and $800 in April and March, respectively
HPI decline a further 2.9% three months to May with Auckland prices down 4.2% for the same period
NZ GDP data out Thursday. I fear it will make for sad reading, especially when taking all that immigration into account
Volume of sales has been increasing all year.
At the start of a turn in a market, first volume increases and as supply gets sucked up then prices start to move.
Re immigration, most immigrants can't buy as they need to gain residency first. This is why rents spiked so hard last year. We should be at the start of those new residents, the ones that can afford to buy at least, start entering the market.
Sharon at ANZ says annual house price inflation in +ve territory
I would ignore that. Just look at sales volume compared to a year ago.
Cyclone Gabriel was a factor to take into account for sure, but March volume for instance was the highest month in two years.
I'll take a deeper look at the report over the next 24 hours and revert with more.
Winner, perhaps we should be backing up the truck to load with OCA. 🤣
yes new lows coming :scared: just like the NZ stock market , breadth is very poor. market held up by a few leaders while the overall market declines.
rest assured though one day a new boom in property and stocks will commence maybe when the great intergeneration transfer of wealth from baby boomers to kin begins in the next 10 - 20yrs may well be the greatest stock market boom ever.
might get 3% more tomorrow though .. an extra 10% next week ? worth the wait ? ;)
Not a bad discount for waiting, depending on what & how long the real wait is ..
With the tide going out daily, must be signs of that deep value breaking the surface some day soon .. or not ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...CM2MQSGEXSKG4/
‘Absolute plunge in business profits’ could be just the start of downturn - economist
Interesting penning by an 'independent' Economist
and even bigger to come
Services Sector Index Drops To Lowest Level Outside Covid Lockdowns
Activity and sales were the weakest amongst key indicators, with levels significantly below the long-term average, while new orders also fell sharply, indicating a strong drop-off in demand
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU24...-lockdowns.htm
should see some big company downgrades come later this yr and early next yr
Don't forget bad news is good news nowadays. Cuts on the way, stocks usually bounce before economic conditions bottom.
Is it agreed that NZ has the highest valued residential property market supposedly in the world.
Given income etc.
And if so ...can values go higher ...especially given the economic climate currently.
In addition I believe there is this thing called "wealth effect" where people spend the supposed increased value of their homes...travel chattels etc.
We live in interesting times.
The reserve bank only cares about inflation though (unlike others around the world).
We're in the process of chemotherapy to get to the target range.
There is so much negativity on here and in the media it's telling me we are close to a buy signal.
To quote Buffett, to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
In reality, I wouldn't be surprised to see another leg down in NZ which would be the opportunity I will be looking for and that could be driven by a shake out in the US where their markets are looking expensive. I.e the 2nd part of Buffetts quote.
Absolutely. I got caught out in the GFC big time. Kids were real young, too much debt.
This time around the debt is small, kids are older. So the downturn just provides opportunities to buy.
Everyone who gets caught out with too much debt learns their lesson. That's why these down cycles are life savers in the long run.
Now is the time to empty the bank accounts and buy assets. Any company with a solid balance sheet will be difficult to lose on.
Given current policy settings, the untaxed inherited wealth will likely ended up reinvested back into residential land - a trickle may be reinvested into NZ listed companies.
Much of family wealth in NZ is already wrapped up in family trusts, so in those cases the death of the older settlor won’t be such a pivotal moment from an estate point of view.
Is this opportunity to invest in SpaceX on catalyst real?
Should ignore high inflation when it comes to stock market.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/turk...high-inflation
Yet, if you are just looking at Turkey’s stock market, you’d think it’s an incredible place to put money to work. The benchmark BIST 100 index is up more than double the S&P 500 so far this year, making it the world’s second-best performing large-cap index, after the U.S.
Guy on telly can’t really work out why when there’s a new high in the Nasdaq more stocks falling to 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs ……and that’s happened 9 days out of the past 20.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...t-up-shop.html
Media whining has started ....how long will. RBNZ resist ....time will tell ...Nov pivot fully possible ...
@bull. Bonds being bid up right? Yields going down. My silly old bond heavy funds just reached all time highs this week.
Or maybe that was because of the 2 per cent allocation to NVIDIA in this particular conservative 40/60 fund. A little bit goes a long way.
interesting stuff .. firms starting to get shaky & falling over .. at a time when Export is not it's strongest - could be a difficult wee session ahead :)
How's the local fiat holding up against the foreign coins .. still asleep or just starting to stir ?
bound to be an increasing queue of captive residential owners starting to scream more loudly soon against the approaching ravages
I agree bull...it will not be pretty.
As Warren said "you discover who is not wearing togs when the tide goes out".
Thats the kiwi version.
Excellent. Hopefully it will work out. If I had cash I'd be tempted myself.
In theory maybe my dividend aristocrats might start working as well. Compare and contrast Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund vs it's Dividend Aristocrat Fund. I have both but wish I had only one.
Yeah I'm leaving everything as is. They'll start working one day. Maybe.
Just checked. So the 5 year returns (not my returns - Ive been with Kernel for just three years) for the Global 100 fund is 19 per cent per annum and the divided aristocrat fund has returned 5.6 per cent per annum.
19 per cent per annum is a lot. $10,000 compounding at 19 per cent for 50 years is almost $60,000,000.
I'm guessing it won't always be returning 19 per cent.
It is just AI driving the NASDAQ higher isn't it? Nvidia now worth 3.34T, up 43% in a month and now the most valuable company in the world.
The thing is people are working out it is not real AI, just algebra and therefore derivative. Thus the hallucination problem is built in. Sam Altman has a problem with the truth and has oversold what it can do.
This would be fine, except that AI is very expensive, both to train and to answer queries. Lot of effort now going into more efficient models like GTP4o and caching which need less hardware. Sure the models become a bit less accurate but since you can't rely upon them to be 100% accurate anyway who cares.
Andriy Burkov's twitter makes for interesting reading.
IFT seems to be running into this trap, why would anyone use data centres in Aus/NZ for AI where it costs (way) more to do so?
Pretty near the peak of the bubble IMO.
What stonks you looking at bull? For me SKC is the no brainer at the bottom
Sorry leemsip.
"stonks" a concentrated artillery bombardment.
Much like the NZ sharemarket eh at present.
I know what you mean. Super hard mentally to add to that fund with the three companies Apple, MSFT and NVIDIA making up over 30 per cent.
However, adding all my Kernel funds together I'm only about 5 per cent NVIDIA, for example. And across all my equity funds I'm only 2.8 per cent or half the S&P500 weighting.
So I tell myself not to touch anything and any spare cash (small amounts) I come across I hold my nose and send it to growthy funds via Kernel or Simplicity's global offering. Feels dirty and I don't want to do it so it's probably the right thing for me to do. I don't need anymore value type stuff.
Everything has a cycle. Sometimes international stocks outperform domestic stocks. Sometimes domestic stocks outperform international or emerging markets. Smart fund managers know how to get peace of cake in every market. As growth stocks are expensive Intelligent smart investors and traders will look elsewhere. Now there are stocks trading under a dollar. Still I won't touch until I see coming turnaround as I got caught to few in the past. I did a small study. One traded somewhere around $24 in the past. Its Downfall is massive. They can go down further unless there is a turnaround.
NZ GDP up 0.2%. More telling GDP per capita down for the March quarter 0.3% and down 2.4% for the year ended March
RBNZ loving the Philips Curve at the moment ….we’ll Allie OK
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/pro...lips-curve.pdf
More RBNZ ass covering. Rising wages didn't cause inflation. Fuel and other imports drove up inflation. Consumption data spiked during covid lockdowns and monetary stimulus then service inflation grew as restrictions eased and the cost or borrowing grew. Wages increased in an effort to catch up the cost of living crises not as the cause of it. Other than that it is an ideologically driven fantasy. The RBNZ is simply trying to fit a model that attempts to justify their engineered lowering of the standard of living in NZ. The rest of the world has denounced and debunked the Philips Curve
Wage increased has certainly impacted inflation, it may not have been the underlying cause as you point out but it certainly has had an impact and probably extended the inflationary impact in NZ. I'm not suggesting it wasn't necessary as again you point out people needed more money just to stay afloat, but it certainly pushes up the cost of a latte.
In the last 10 years, the minimum wage is up 63%.
It feels like an own goal, us farmers working too hard and are the reason for the economic data not flashing a recession.
Nasdaq breaks 20k!
Now short, we will see.
Small posi with fairly tight stop.
It has a chance to go up further. After sometime When a stock or an index hit some price barriers they tend to go up further. Difiintely,they will fall and history will repeat. At some point AI bubble will burst along with semi-conductors. I want to buy tech stocks in fire sales as they are way too expensive.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EVGXLKEWQQDDM/
NZ bank’s trading in government bonds sparked FMA complaint over market manipulation
Brilliant - the mostlly toothless old mutt gets sent in to sniff around some steam arising off a pile of Govt Bond mutters & whispers ;)
Will it be a peppercorn token, the Court & Legal Costs & a 'Be a Good Bank' card issued .. assuming .. when finally they find a trolley with all wheels intact to push it into a Court in distant future ? ;)
Wonder how much other digging and shuffling went on around the acres of Robbo's other growing pile
of Govt IOU's thrown out to fill his widening gap ? ;)
Failing Businesses are being weeded out - Tony Alexander
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...alexander.html
Forget failing businesses, at least they work for a living. I suppose what can you expect from a (former?) bank economist.
NZ desperately needs cheaper residential housing.
"Nvidia’s surge reveals a pitfall of passive investing: Morning Brief"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidi...100128356.html
Crikes,this rebalancing will be interesting ! TIMBER?
"Micron (MU), Qualcomm (QCOM), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Lam Research (LRCX) also closed at all-time highs on Tuesday, catapulting the broader S&P 500 Tech Index to its own record and bumping up its year-to-date return to an enviable 31%.
But the closest investable match — the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) — is underperforming its tech sector benchmark by over 10 percentage points this year."
"After the close Friday, the XLK ETF will be rebalanced to drop Apple's 22% share down to 4.5% and increase Nvidia's 5.9% share up to 21.1%, based on Bloomberg estimates."
Dozens of empty shop fronts on one stretch of Wellington road as sales 'drop right off'
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...drop-right-off
Temu, Amazon and AliExpress cash in as local shops do it tough
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...ps-do-it-tough
More needs to be done to offset the loss of millions of dollars in property and business investments to Australia caused by a growing exodus of wealthy Kiwis, says an industry expert
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...ross-the-ditch
A real estate agent wanting to prop up the market with foreign buyers. Nothing new there.
It's not going to solve anything, but what it will do is make easier for others to exit and make property more unaffordable for Kiwis.
What really is required is a capital gains tax to put investing on an even keel with income, so its more attractive to build a business and less incentive for NZs fixation with property.
It doesn't pay to work in NZ, it pays to invest.
NZ Residential RE is way overvalued for our economic wealth, but the loss of the business investment funds is not good news. These fleeing folk are not convinced that the new government will make the tough reforms to make business investment for economic growth per person a priority?
Ask not what you can do for your country. Go to Australia instead.
One has to ask anyone with Capital to invest - "Is this where you could safely & securely put your business investment funds ? "
Or put it in the bank & let the bank carry the risk & can if wherever it gets lent out to from there falls over ..
I think the reports in the media, NZX of recent times, recessionary phases, closures, business failures, etc apparently with worst not all over yet may provide a few pointers on answers
The 20 bucks a week will apply from July 31. If you are lucky enough to get that and not 2 bucks/wk (most pensioners).