Originally Posted by
Dassets
Beagle, absolutely agree. I have been in and out of this for circa 30 years. At one point a fund I was investment manager for was one of the larger insti holders. IMO AIR's go forward business model is unknown. They will need a freight component but how is an issue.The govt can't keep propping up it up when the a/c are not freight aircraft but mixed revenue. There is no chance of conversion or new buys or old. So dilemma because if NZ loses or seriously degrades that freight capability then NZ exporters are in Big Trouble in Little China territory. Long haul, imo, is effectively gone to any meaningful level. Short haul has lesser but no means insignificant challenges but hard to see it anywhere near 2019 levels for at least another 5 years.
The directors(and auditors) have to sign the accounts of soon as a going concern I presume. Problem is there is no business clarity at all. It is losing money even with subsidies. At some point the WTO may be pressured over the subsidies because long term they are illegal.I wonder how far AIR/GONZ can push it.
At $1.00 there will be a big shortfall and Govt underwrite will be called. At 50 was where I pitched it 12 months ago but maybe 75 is right given the Labour Govt approach to life. They would like to buy all of it actually but with the lack of money bailing out AIR or paying nurses is a no brainer.