im guessing you brought companies in such sectors as data science , AI , 5g services , robotics , cannabis edibles etc
carg of these industries massive going forward heaps other industries as well with good growth prospects.
Printable View
Things must be bad:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...JFZBSUL4BBQDY/
Smith & Caughey’s closing: Stores including historic Queen St building set to close in 2025, with loss of almost 250 jobs
Probably just the tip of a larger iceberg on what is happening at Retail overall
Caught in a perfect storm I think. Smith and Caughey's has always been an expensive place to shop and with all the luxe brands opening their own stores in downtown Auckland and Newmarket mall, plus David Jones now having a presence in the market as well, it was always going to do it tough. You add in the ongoing hassle of trying to get around the Auckland CBD, particularly mid-city where their main store is based and foot traffic must be well down.
added $500b market cap in three days seriously nuts....
Attachment 15129
nvidia hands down. contrary to what many think im only short term trader i do have some long term stocks. longest one held is nearly 30yrs now. but anyway i look at carg of industry long term and then pick stock in that industry.
as example carg of ai industry could easily be 30 - 50 % next 10yrs , RV sdector will be fraction of that. nvidia having dominant position will pick up huge % of that growth. oca not dominant will pick up fraction of that growth
anyway just basic view
What was the CAGR of the automobile industry when it was in its heyday?
And the commercial airline industry?
Telecommunications?
The Internet?
And how did each fare for the companies involved and the investors?
Keep up the great basic views Bull, you are a savant.
Lollll you asked me to prove the carg of OCA will be better than OCA.
Then you say I'm all talk when put on the spot.
Well Bull, you prove to me the CAGR of Nividia will be better than Nividia...
I cannot prove the growth rate of something will be greater than the same thing you are asking me about...
For Nividia market cap to double from here would mean that it would be by far the largest company in the history of the world, this would be achieved in one of the most cut throat capital intensive industries in existence. In all of recorded history when we have rapid tech shifts like this, they all end one way. At a cap of circa 6 trillion it would be a massive part of the entire US economy. The base rates for anything like this ever happening is zero.
For OCA market cap to double will just be a non event, nobody will even notice and it will still be a gutter cheap stock.
Take your bets.
How many people listened to Mary Holm today (RNZ 1515 hrs)
Black Monday ..could extend for a while.
Dear Trovvdh
Do you mean “Your Money with Mary Holm”
Anything is possible. It depends on the breakdown of the financial system. So far, there had been temporary solutions to get away from various crises.
I was wary about extended stocks. Even if there is a future growth no need to pay insane prices to acquire assets. As history is repeating in markets in a different manner, I periodically adjust my portfolio exception is If I smell characteristics of a multi bagger stock. I also found people need basic things and some commodities in any crisis.
Will there be black swan events like stock market crash of 1987 and the 2007- 2008 subprime meltdown. Crises can come suddenly and unexpectedly. Eg: Covid-19.
Dear value.Did you listen to it.
With respect I find your post quite bewildering.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
I have to ask did AI assist you in the post.
Re black swan...are you serious ....those 3 events were surely inevitable.
Sorry I have to ask...how old are are you...Im 67 cheers.
Bugger...why do the administrators allow this.....who is "we" cheers.
Man I miss Phaedrus and Brian Gaynor.
Chris Lee I believe is doing a stellar job.
Phaedrus yes definitely, taught us the basics of TA which set me up for a lifetime timing the market. Gaynor, absolutely, one of the few honest and believable FA media commentators.
Chris Lee, maybe but wading through the weekly rambling of his cohorts nowadays is mostly tedious and boring. Maybe he should revert to telling the story himself? Might get a few customers back on side or even interested again.
Bloody funny, was just watching this after our exchange, link begins at the point I mean.
Well Terry, you aint met Baa_Baa!
No human he has encountered or heard of in 40 years can time the market, and he is as involved as anyone in the world.
https://youtu.be/UfNb22qXCig?si=wBzELAqg4m0bH9n_&t=1969
From the same video - this is extremely profound and what I have tried to teach Percy who believes the exact opposite;
In fact everyone should watch the whole thing, it's all amazing stuff.
But this particular section and the one at the end about what you MUST do before investing a cent of your capital is the best;
https://youtu.be/UfNb22qXCig?si=vFCF83TwREVoT0oF&t=1172
ValueNZ make sure you watch the whole thing.
I read with interest C. Lee's latest "Taking Stock". Love a bit of confirmation bias. To summarise:
* The NZX has well underperformed compared to other index's. Especially, when considered its recorded as a gross index
* NZ investor's are investing offshore
* Investment in NZ is handcuffed to out economy and allocation decisions based on policies and leadership. Offshore investment has dwindled. Debt has traditionally attract 60% offshore investment. Down to 20% currently
* The world does not applaud our lack of capital gains tax
* NZ headwinds are strong, not least because policies may be resisted because of social dysfunction and a Wellington cabal with a social ideology that is not attractive to foreign investment
https://www.chrislee.co.nz/newslette...=May&year=2024
Was thinking if this AI thingy works out like expected ...it will seriously undermine the human labour value thus countries like China / India etc which are relying heavily on their human resources for progress will have difficult time ahead .... If any company can fulfil its business with less people ...it will surely choose that option ...similarly if any factory can produce equivalent goods with much lesser human labour then that will be the way to go .
China progressed by being world's factory and India being world's back office ...but if AI can do then why involve China or India or even humans
AI will need electricity / energy and raw materials ....electric companies and resources ...Australia for hard commodities and NZ for softer
In long run AI is big threat to labour rich countries ...thus to their economies .
Hard to replace manufacturing with AI so china will do better (though have a crippling aging population issue). India yes will likely have major disruption.
Those on employment contracts that are hard to terminate may be protected (we saw how easy it was for US tech workers to be fired, it wouldn't happen in europe).
All know AI will have extensive use in factory automation and controls ...thus China is actually more at danger end then anyone else ...moreover they have a very export dependent economy unlike India
I don't really follow this stuff, but wasn't yesterday a massive day on the NZX?
Like the biggest maybe in years, or up there?
Thought people would be talking about it.
Yes, Tiwai Point deal reached. Massive day for MEL NWF and MCY.
Thank you. One good thing is both food and energy stocks are suited for all types of macroeconomic situations. After getting experience in all types of situations I got more exposure to global companies which produce basic things when they were massively undervalued. Good time to go against the crowd and pick real winners. I just want to sit and wait for the next 5 to 10 years. Currently NZ energy stocks are bit expensive but still has more room to go up.
bull the legend
new berkshire share holder in brk.a
paid 15000
now 631k :t_up: time to retire
this might happen to your stock , rumour of buffett death ?
Trading data provided by Refinitiv shows that Berkshire Hathaway changed hands at $620,700 as of 9:44:32 on Monday morning. And then, without any explanation, the stock crashed to just $185.10
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/03/i...onal.%E2%80%9D
US 10Y dropped dramatically after recent inflation data ...NZ10Y shud follow ...helpful for stocks ...should be good follow up session after electric companies led heroics plus index balancing dynamics ...
Back before the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco was the stock. The company brought internet networking to the masses just as the entire world took its first tentative steps into cyberspace. If it happened online in the 1990s, Cisco had a hand in it. As such, the stock price soared and — for a brief moment — Cisco reigned as the most valuable company in the world.
If you, as an investment manager, did not have Cisco in your portfolio, you would hear about it from unhappy clients. They didn’t much care that the stock traded at 220x earnings — but only that their neighbors and friends and a guy called Bull on Share Trader were getting rich from Cisco’s rapid ascent and they weren’t.
Envy is a cruel mistress — and an even worse stock-picker. In the late 1990s, as value investors languished far below the S&P 500’s results, one of Rich Pzena’s clients taunted him that, “My grandmother is a better investor than you!” All because Pzena was not a believer in Cisco at nose-bleed prices.
“Cisco has a $500 billion market cap,” explained Pzena. “Let’s say you’re going to buy the whole company. You’re rich and you’re going to write a check for $500 billion and you want to make a 15% return on your investment. That’s $75 billion. They have to make $75 billion every year. They’re making $1 billion [now]!” His client was unfazed. “You just don’t get it.”
David Winters tells a similar story. At the height of the dot-com bubble, he received a handwritten letter from a lady who called him a dinosaur for not investing in Cisco. “There were relatively few of us who maintained the core belief in value investing at the bottom,” he said. “There was tremendous pressure from multiple directions to capitulate.” Pzena and Winters did not capitulate — but countless others did.
How Roaring Kitty’s wealth went from $53,000 to nearly $300 million — and could one day top $1 billion
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/how-...1-billion.html
his handle was deepf.uckingvalue maybe value and sailor could learn a thing or two from him
Buy call options in a damn near bankrupt company and shill it on reddit?
Those guys on reddit are degenerate gamblers. Some of them are bound to do stupid things and win massively.
I don't spend much time on there but sometimes I go for a laugh, like yesterday I saw multiple people who placed market orders for BRK.A stock during the nyse glitch which got filled about 100k above the current market price. Mind you these people had like $500 in their account and managed to lose 100k :scared:. No clue who will end up fronting that bill...
Tesla likely to spend $3 bln-$4 bln on Nvidia hardware this year
https://www.reuters.com/technology/t...ar-2024-06-04/
Commodities have pulled back in the last week or so. Dr Copper is particularly what I have been taking notice of as is usually a litmus test or canary in the coal mine. Copper is down 10% + from its recent admittedly record highs.
Gold down around 5%.
Oil down 15% from recent highs, lowest in 3 - 4 months.
USD mixed but generally weaker.
I think we are perhaps going through a transitional period where commodities are forecasting a slowdown in particularly the US but also global economy.
I think it's likely the FED will react and bring rate cuts back to the table & I expect commodities to regain losses in dollar terms.
Also note that China has built up quite a commodity stock, some to alleviate its reliance on Australia as they transition away and for copper I suspect it's also about a forecast global deficit of supply.
im not that good at top and bottom picking.
Azz actually got me interested in it
ill keep investing for ever no need to retire in this profession or any profession if able too if you enjoy it
i dont need to provide any proof cause i dont care if anyone believes or not
you just need to believe nvidia will beat OCA hands down
you should check out these deep value plays im into
DRO.ASX
ELS.ASX
the future
the future is coming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfKc8U4iwg
nvidia on fire , over 1200 now
I dont want to be a SailorRob, but quite a few companies coming down to prices we could only dream of earlier.... this is when the $$ gets made. That COVID pull back in 2020 when everyone thought the world was ending was the best time to buy.
NZ economy in the toilet and looks like no escape from here... Once this becomes consensus we should see some amazing long term buys. Need to property market to tank first to really put the boot in. Feels like its coming.
Must the top when Jensen is signing bra's lol
Attachment 15146
Canada's CB cut rates.
Could be the start of a global change.
Good for commodities.
Kiwi might have a bit more upside unless they join the party.
Datyr...do you mean ...rates falling indicating inflation is under control...
Scary stuff...the Dow recently topped 40000.
Meanwhile Putin and Xi are upping their game.
Interesting times.
The Ticker CA$H seems to be doing comparably well on NZX lately weathering winter storms - not sliding downwards, not recording huge losses aside from a bit of interest foregone, not losing 20% in one session, not stopping paying any dividends, unaffected by ditsy & docile dithering Fi$h heads, not suffering from huge losses of NZX spectator confidence & ever useful elsewhere ;)
Bird flu in US cattle has caused concern amongst milk-drinkers. Is cow's milk safe to drink? :scared: If it spreads look out bubonic plaque 2 spread by dairy cows ?
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...-safe-to-drink
Bird flu has been detected widely in pasteurised milk products in the US. We asked experts about the safety of drinking pasteurised and raw milk
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-...nza-dairy-milk
Thats a beat up Bull !
The important bits
" Most of them have had close contact with infected birds."
"However, to date, these H5N1 viruses haven’t spread effectively from person to person, limiting their potential to cause a pandemic"
"Three infections of people working with dairy cows have been picked up by virus surveillance methods. So far, symptoms have been mild."
"These temperatures mimicked those used in milk pasteurization. The experiments suggest that heat may be able to neutralize HPAI H5N1 in dairy milk."
Still bird flue has not become a major issue. They come and go. Whenever there's a bird flu somewhere competitors have benifitted. I have invested in stocks and gained considearably by analysing bird flu worldwide.
Not yet. Naturally, stocks will go under a dollar when they cannot maintain growth and generate reasonable cash. Whenever there is a crisis there is an opportunity. Only recently I learnt that. My shopping list included PGL and SKL as well. But I avoided as I found another two. After realizing there’re going to be value traps, potentials are remote and unpredictable and seeing danger signals sold before the big drop. Actually, some stocks are still falling. I can see the trend. Only stocks I like is once I buy, I want to sit and wait.
So essentially you guys rate bird flu as more of a risk over Putin and Xi ?
Wow.
Have you guys read much history.
Vast numbers of people in history died due to pandemics/illness, more than any war.
In most wars until ww2, the casualties were from sickness and not combat.
-- double post
Panda you are correct.
However I will add trump to Xi and Putin.
He I understand when president (being conspiracy theorist/profoundly stupid etc) was probably responsible for say a third of the million US deaths through covid denial.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...ra/ar-BB1nyk6H
Stock volatility may pick up in June after ‘cracks in the ice’ formed in May - CFRA© Provided by Seeking Alpha
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/...=768&h=320&m=6
If volatility pick up in June It could follow with big market sell-off. I tried my best to avoid bad investment.
Dear VG ..I understand some folk dont believe you exist.
Could you please forward your cell number to me privately.
cheers.
Apparently AÍ and related stuff now stands for Artificially Inflated
Yes when the music stops and investors expect a ROI on the billions spent we will see who in the nuddy, to mix my metaphor's
Fed week. Always makes it interesting
Euro and European stocks are weak.It’s going to be very crucial week for markets from this Monday to the following Monday. I don’t rule out some huge selling as well.
https://www.investing.com/news/stock...ection-3476872
Australian grocery giant introduces egg limits amid flu outbreak
Coles has introduced national limits on egg purchases due to a growing bird flu outbreak in Victoria
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/06/10/a...-flu-outbreak/
https://www.tradingview.com/news/zac...l-room-to-run/
Have you been paying attention to shares of Vital Farms ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 49.3% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $44.81 in the previous session. Vital Farms has gained 184.5% since the start of the year compared to the 3.1% move for the Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the -1% return for the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cr0VagmhhNk&t=1s
yep when outbreak of bird flu occurred in 22 smart investors do research into outcomes and possibilities.would haVE known from research egg shortage would happen at some stage if bird flu did damage
maybe nothing comes of it but better prepared investors make money with these type of opportunity and get in early if the headlines turn into substance.
now that bird flu has migrated to other countries opportunities present there two. 1 example was if you had inghams . asx on your watchlist from research into birdflu you have done yr or so ago fell sharply on news of bird flu on farm in aus smart cookies who brought on the dip made big bucks within the hr.
now bird flu spreading to some dairy cows do we need to do research into if it happen with dairy related stocks. a what if senario to be prepared and have watchlist ready for bargains.
eg PGW or SKL and others in NZ ? of course you have to work out if its good for stock or not