From a psychiatrist?
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:lol: :lol: Not a good idea to deliberately inflict pain on yourself. Stumbled across this today....might help someone owning too much of the pain and problems in their organization https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...tail&FORM=VIRE
Air New Zealand out of the OZ All Ords - that is a major achievement.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc....asx-3A589203/
Usually most of the action in terms of index tracking funds happens in the 15 minute closing price match process the Friday before the change is effected, 18 March 2022. No idea of the weighting, sorry.
Down 7.5% over the last week.... Incoming capital raise finally or just rebalancing selling pressures?
US airlines are being smashed 20-30% the past week so AIR down less as they aren't really using much jet fuel = cheaper to keep the planes on the ground than be flying!
I jest, or do I?
Yes, finally dropped below $1.40. Unbelievable that the SP was able to hang around mid $1.50 for so long. But with the high fuel prices and borders still largely closed, I would not touch it. Even AIA dropped below $7 for only the 2nd time in a long time.
Jethole are known to do that A LOT. Lots of last minute cancellations if they don't get sufficient load to make it a profitable trip. They simply blame it on engineering or staffing issues. You cannot rely on them for any business flight...they really couldn't care less about their obligation to make all possible efforts to get people where they need to be. That's my perception of them. My perception could be wrong but I would never fly them again for a business trip. AIR could be headed down the same rabbit hole, who knows..., anyway what do I care, if I can't drive to where I want to go at present I'm not going, simple as that. Breathing in all that recirculated virus laden air...no thank you, not even if the flight was free or AIR paid me !
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127...on-lower-wages
Air NZ senior cabin crew to strike in support redundant staff re-hired on lower wages
Quote:
Air New Zealand international cabin crew leaders have issued a strike notice in support of crew who are returning from redundancy on much lower pay.
E tū head of aviation Savage said experienced crew on the long-haul Boeing 787-9 and Boeing 777-300ER fleet who were made redundant because of the Covid-19 pandemic were being re-hired at a much lower wage.
Air New Zealand senior cabin crew earned an average salary of between $53,645 and $62,117.
But many leaders made redundant at the start of the pandemic were being hired back at the starting rate of $42,917, which over a 40-hour week worked out to be $20.60 an hour, he said.
Darn - just when .. more storm clouds appear ;)
strongly down on larger than usual volume
Attachment 13614
Perhaps these senior crew should all take a 20% pay cut instead, to show their support to both their colleagues and the company in this difficult time. I suspect mostly it's about the principal than making enough to pay the bills. After all, with so much of their living expenses paid for, while on the road, I'm sure the crews can all come together to support the airline to ensure that they all have a job and continue to enjoy the life style they love so much. I reckon the recent high inflation would hit the airline's clerical staff hardest, as they're on fixed salary, with no overtime or allowances like the crew.
If you were paid redundancy then your old job disappeared. Coming back you a accept the terms of the new job you applied for and the pay it comes with. It isn't the old job.
Furloughed staff probably have a previous employment terms they can resume.
Given the airline is largely a Govt entity now I expect the union feels emboldened...
Not to mention +/- 30% of the non operations staff package is bonuses which have been cancelled for the foreseeable future.
Not surprising the co. has to engage with consultants, eg. IBM, at 3x the rate of a locally employed worker: No one wants to work there! Kick in the guts for the loyal staff that have to work with them
Seems cap raise by end of month
Existing shareholders - you all ready for the action
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...-3b-in-capital
Will someone please indulge me in a small wager that somewhere in the marketing propaganda, (opps sorry, capital raise documents), the words "revive" and "thrive" will be used more than once ;)
You know he was. You'd need to be pretty brave and have great endurance to get on one of those so called Dreamliner's with their sardine can sized seats and sit next to a bunch of strangers breathing in all their expelled breath as well as all the recycled air for 13 hours all the way to Vancouver. Whatever's in their lungs, is definitely in yours :eek2:
Any guesses on what AIR Ords are really worth now ahead of the coming "Fill in a Large Hole"
at any price exercise ? ;)
$1.43 currently definitely looks more than slightly out the door fresh AIR material than reality :)
Current market cap (sp $1.43) - $1.6 billion
Capital raise - say $1.3 billion.
Expect highly dilutive rights issue for capital raise - will have to be done at a deep discount to current sp for underwriters to be comfortable.
So 2:1 at 60 cents to raise $1.3 billion as a possibility?
Thanks for the article. The increasing volume the past few days stands out like dogs *****. I will reiterate 1 cap raise(I assumed 1.5 bil last year) is not enough. 2 more likely needed. Here is its next issue. Today I brought business return AKL to BNE to see dear mum for the first time in 2 and a bit years. I paid cash of nzd$200. The rest was paid via using a credit from an earlier non operating flight. Hope the $200 is used wisely. Oh and only $1bil more of that noncash flykng to go. And yes that is after adjustimg for the airpoints
More than just polish the turd, they are cutting it into a princess cut style turd.
But they're not going away, or bust, are they? That won't happen. It's just another 'once in two decades' opportunity to time a decent stake. Patience.
This could be a bloodbath of a capital raise once reality hits. I remember Fletcher Forests doing a 2:1 at 25 cents and the share price went from about 70 cents all the way to the issue price because of the obscene number of new shares to be issued.
A 2:1 at 60 cents will raise the cash but the 2.3 billion of new shares should see the price head towards 60-70 cents as there would be 3.5 billion of shares in issue. Wow!
Probably then do a Sky and consolidate maybe 5:1 to get a $4 share price again to be respectable.
Remember Fletcher Forests well - ouch!!!!
The recent Sky rights issue (2.83:1 @12c) when the sp was 30c is the best recent example of a highly diluted rights issue. Sp went all the way down to 12.9c - painful for holders.
But there’s obviously an opportunity here - matter of seeing how low the sp goes.
Suspect that most of Air NZ would be held by retail investors these days so most of them are going to have the shock of their lives when they are ‘invited’ to put in more money into the airline.
it’s amazing/scary how quickly humans have gone back to previous behavior despite CV being everywhere. In US, despite lack of foreign tourism, air travel passenger levels in 2021 was within striking distance of pre-pandemic volume (84%) and by Dec 2021 Hollidays it was actually above the prepandemic level.
I myself am surprised how my own sub-conscious changed now that Omicron has become widespread. A month ago I thought it would be many years before contemplating international holiday travel again, but now that Omicron is everywhere in NZ I see little difference in going to Queenstown vs going to Melbourne or Honolulu.
You're obviously a young pup...I see them everywhere at bars and restaurants, jam packed in wearing no masks. That's one thing but sitting next to a whole bunch of strangers in a thin aluminum tube breathing their exhaled air, that's another thing. I won't be flying to Queenstown or anywhere else anytime soon.
Like other old hands above I also remember the Fletcher Forests thing but more importantly I remember the last time this crashed and burned when capital was raised at 25 cents a share. As many have already noted the share price inevitably gravitates to the rights issue price as shareholders are shocked with the extent of the capital raise. I can see the Sharsies crown, already reeling from a shocking start to the market in 2022 feeling like a Jumbo jet has run them over when they're asked to put their hands in their pockets for heaps more capital ands then watching the share price head down to a very similar level. Who is brave enough to underwrite this capital raise ?
and that last time i'm sure non government shareholders didn't get the chance to participate ....they just had to grin and bear it as the government loaded up their coffers and ended up with 80% plus of the company
So sharesies people (and others) might not have to find any spare cash
Of course that won't happen this time around will it
So if that happened those currently holding might see their $1.40 shares be worth only $0.30 or something (and no extra shares) …..and if AIR ever pays a divie again it will be pretty small with the zillions of new shares.
Doesn’t seem much sense holding at moment but then what do I know
Actually I think you've hit the nail directly on the head ! Any divvy will be many years away and even then probably only 5 cents a share and that's after yet another 1:5 share consolidation like last time. Rinse and repeat next time there's another crisis. Don't you absolutely adore socialism hand in hand with airline investment...what could possibly go wrong ;)
The lack of comment from the company is telling.
Welcome to the Thunderdome!
"Two men enter. One man leaves."
I am one of those men. Disc Short
If you look at it through a political lens will the issue take place?
The haste with which the Government acted to reduce motor spirits duty suggests they are sensitive to economic damage suffered by voters following the recent adverse political poll.
Will Grant Robertson risk bringing down the hammer on mom and pop Robertson Airlines investors?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
No matter how desperate the government might be to please voters ... what would you propose they could do in the context of AIR's issues to achieve an outcome which satisfies both shareholders as well as the general public?
I only see a rock and a hard place ... and am only surprised that so many buyers willingly queue up to get there.
But hey - people are back to air tourism in the US as well as in Europe ... who knows, maybe things are not too different in NZ give it another handful of months ...
Every time Robertson Airlines hits a sticky patch taxpayers have to open their wallets. An ordinary Kiwi Joker has to endure a sub standard education for his kids because the Koru Taniwhia got all the cash.
This should not be allowed to continue. Grant Robertson needs to grow a pair, be Dr Evil not Mini Me.
If Grant Robertson in Dr Evil mode asked me what he should do to protect taxpayers alone I would tell him this;
Do not subscribe to the share issue, that is just peeing money against the wall.
Write off the advances already made, what can't be paid won't be paid.
Let it go bust. If it survives fine but whatever happens he didn't throw another wad of taxpayers cash at it.
Offer the receiver slightly above break up value. If someone else comes over the top, fine it is their problem now.
If left holding the baby reconstitute as a different entity restricted to single isle aircraft. This will give the ability to cover domestic, across the ditch and the South Pacific but limit the scope of damage to taxpayers wallets next time things get sticky. If the new entity wants to operate larger twin isle aircraft the rules are it needs to be done by an arms length outfit whose losses are not a hazard to main entities balance sheet.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
PS. If this post comes to the attention of the tea drinkers and biscuit nibblers in the Civil Aviation Authority Policy Division a chorus of offended pretense will arise.
Is there any chance of a multibagger lurking somewhere in the clouds & haze ? ;)
Politicians (the smarter versions) at the steering wheel of just about anything corporate
still generally ends in some form of grief somewhere (as for the less smarter versions .. well .. )
it might be worse than a wheel, wing or engine falling off .. ;)
Perhaps some revisions of the ACC cover might be needed to cover failure of
Robertson Air even while most of the birds are sitting on the tarmac :)
Perhaps ACC and/or the Large Super Funds should buy out AIR @ somewhere around $1.80
a share or north - based on the Hon Finance Minister's blind future faith in things looking
down into the bottom of the empty bucket being thrown around for frequent top ups..
Or even make it a buy out subsidiary of NZ Post - seeing as the NZ Post Camp like things
that require squillions of bucks thrown at them - as seen with Kiwibank :)
It could be a marriage made in heaven and save the Retail punters a bit of bother & pain down the track :)
Interesting.
Not sure though, one isle planes are more economical to operate - but I guess it depends on the number of people you want to transport (and who want to be transported).
Just wondering, though. Do we know whether the taxpayer lost long term money with Air New Zealand?
While the taxpayer had to chip in money at times (and lots) ... they made as well huge profits at times with AIR, e.g. by selling half of what's now worth peanuts for a huge amount of money to clueless retail investors, and just by cashing in all the nice dividends over the last decade or so (well, minus the Covid years).
I didn't took the sums, but I am pretty sure that over the years the tax payer had worse things to carry than AIR ... and yes, now seems to be again one of these darker periods.
While I think that AIR will turn out for current retail shareholders a disaster ... I would not be surprised if whoever is minister of finance in say five to ten years from now can cream them again ...
Govt made heaps up to 2016.
Put in $1043 million and up to 2016 got $1234 million cash back up to 2016 and still had shares worth $1341 million
Pretty good eh
I might quickly look at what’s happened since …it’s been about $572m in divies and current holding worth about $830m ……so last few years only slightly ahead (divies 572m v cap loss 511m)
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publica...aland-part-1-3
SORRY CHART DOESN"T POST EDIT
Here is the chart prior to the bailout out in 2002. Feb 01 2000 share price at $9.42. It fell for 2 years til finally in October 2001 a rescue package was announced giving the government 82% at 24 cents, the cash available early 2002. A further cash injection was required in 2004 at 27 cents. In 2013 the Crown sold $365m and its stake dropped to 53%. So the lessons are 1. The government can wipe out minorities with the 2001 bailout at 3% of the price less than 2 years before. 2. It can then use "investors" later, and 3. It can own much more than 52%(its current position). Now while this is not the same government than the other 2, this govt's ideal's are clear. And shareholders are not as important as voters.
One last thing, I understand that the take-up by Sharesies clients of recent cash issues and placements has dropped off a proverbial cliff. So unless this cash issue is priced at a level that institutions believe there is an investment case then the cash issue will not fly or the government, as an assumed underwriter, will own all but the lot.
When the government find there is no support the price will be cut to the bone and they will own it. Some of the recent broker research is fascinating. One well known broker says AIR will have to raise $1.3B. The derived numbers show a cash issue of 1.3 B shares at an issue price of $1. So about 1.2 new shares for 1 old share, or an entry price at CMP of $1.42+$1.20 = $2.62 /2.2 shares means avg entry price of $1.19 per share. At that issue that broker says NTA is circa $0.50-60 (not going to use precise so the broker is not identified). Goodwill of 60 to 70 cents per share on 2.4B shares or $1.45 to $1.7B. AIR only ever achieved that level of goodwill very briefly over the past 15 years(won't bother with before) when it was paying big dividends and flying in clear blue skies.
Then that broker says it will need to borrow ALOT(keeping the number out) in FY23. Cashflow from operations and after capex is negative. Just wow. Who is going to lend to them and at what rate??
As I say this first cap raise will be followed by 2 raising a similar amount. The first cash issue at 50 cents, non renounceable but you never know. That means
Good post Dassets. I forgot about the subsequent cash injection in 2004, two years later.
I think they're on the same flight path here. The first cash issue will solve their immediate needs and a second one will be required to restore operational solvency 2 years hence if not earlier. Maybe a third as well. You're dead right about this Govt's ideologies so the potential to treat existing minorities with complete contempt should be readily apparent to all, especially with the benefit of looking at the previous history of how this was handled 20 years ago.
Buying the shares now is analogous to taking a hospital pass on the Rugby field...you're going to get absolutely smashed.
think we have clearly seen that this GOVT doesnt know what financial accounting actually is.
and as MR B has been saying for while its flying on fumes and some hot air currents.
one wondered when the SHAZ would come to understand what a sharp spin operation SHAZ HQ is..
what till this stock drops it hat onto the market and the SHAZ get taken out to the wood shed....
GUY's fav saying ...
A few days before the 2001 bailout AIR boss proudly announced 'no worries, we have a billion dollars in cash'
Does AIR have a billion dollars cash on hand at the moment
LOL I remember that like it was yesterday. They have been touting their so called liquidity lately...which is really just the amount of the Governments bailout loan that's left and of course that does not account for the other liability which is ticket sales in advance. I think we all know the airline is properly insolvent so there is unlikely to be any talk about a billion in cash this time but you can set your watch by the fact that in several places throughout the capital raise documentation the words revive and thrive will be used....probably many times in an attempt to put lipstick on this pig.
I found the recipe in my trusty "Harry Potter and Robo's Enterprises' Kitchen of Magic" omnibus(given to me when I left the West Coast(Central) Socialist Curling Club).
To Rescue An Airline
Add
1 x Poultice of self Folding Cash(add 2 to 3 times poultice for severe cases)(if not enough on hand request more from the printer)
Pay rises to Pilots(no need for other in flight personnel) as required
Chant the Phrases " Light at the End of the Tunnel", "Revive", " Thrive" and "Growth" at least 53 x each.
Note for this recipe to work you must gather as much cash as possible from muggles offering flight to such muggles without giving them flight(in itself another magical spell may be required).
should it even be trading at this point....should come with a health warning.
But in classic Winner(*n) speak, the Finance wizard said better days are coming!
Its all good then... up up and .....
over 600,000 today passed over the counter.
Sharsies customers likely up for $60m as their part of the capital raise…..:scared:
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/m...e-hook-for-60m (paywalled)
Part of the revive/thrive/survive......??
Air New Zealand reveals new launch date for non-stop New York flights | Stuff.co.nz
the team at SHAZ continuing to offer weekly prizes.
maybe then the AIR cap raise come they will double the prizes that week!!
its not a share broker, its a supermarket selling slices of an investment company.
Its an investment company in any other name....
It milking its sheep, its shaz base, its almost third hand car sales man ship.
Yes you can bet your last dollar they will try and "sell the sizzle" with all sorts of references to "revive and thrive"...probably the investment banking teams are going through this online thesaurus as we speak working out how many different ways they can say the same thing www.thesaurus.com without being too obvious about it. Any forecast will contain more fine print caveats than the Russell McVeagh library has law books explaining the term.
its about to become a plane wreck....
millions of shares on order ... are they all covering shorts or just unaware?
Jeez Foran was like an excited kid on the TV news just now
Super excited about NY and how bright the future looks ..... think that is what he said ....but he was beaming
I'd not be surprised if Ed Sim is named the next CEO if Greg choose to retire after this mess is all over.
Has there ever been a more widely announced shareholder capital cremation? Perhaps we've missed the point, like maybe the government just loans them another Bill or so at some extortionate % with another Bill if required. Debt/interest repayments replace dividends, to govt. Airline recovers eventually. Shareholders not too badly capital screwed, but don't expect dividends for a long time.
" shareholder capital cremation?"
brilliant !
yes loans would actually be the way to go; sell some bonds to the reserve bank...
I feel sorry for Greg. What was it - in charge for 2 days before Covid hit? Seems like a good bloke, was well regarded at Walmart, but got hit by the proverbial (air)bus. Always in hindsight might have done things differently, but unprecedented situation.
Hope he sticks around for a while, and would be interested to see how he goes "situation normal-ish".
Yeah, I think he was doing the informal rounds, meet and greet of senior staff a few days before it hit and he formally took up his role.
Talk about getting a "hospital pass' but I agree that top his credit he's carried the ball well as anyone could have been expected too in these extraordinary times.
I also loved Baa Baa's "capital cremation" comment, absolute classic.
Attachment 13634
Screenshot from the app
The fact it states "Not available" may mean they are fully booked. I get the same on that date but one week later there are seats.
If that is the first flight out it is probably loaded with free loaders.
Likely in April, Billion dollar plus, will be interesting to see how much blind faith can have to holding up the SP when the Cap Raise price is released. Likely to see a massive share dilution resulting in SP testing previous lows. An ,abundance more shares surely even those faithful believers can understand its written on the wall what the cap raise will do to the SP. Amazed haven't seen a sell off already, but understandably until it is announced and in the public media limelight where the general public are reading about it will we then see the card stack start to tumble. Nerves of steel to holders trying to ride it out though.
A long flight to new York is not for me, I would need a stop over in LA but there must be a demand
they need a new add series !!
Susie Q Paul!!
or another over 50 year old make over gal super model babe!!!
Rachel Huntress!!!
at what point is the marketing to the SHAZ from SHAZ HQ need some guidance from the FMA.
"Come and Get Some"
2 million odd short covering ...
"Come and Get Some"
Yeah will likely see some serious shorting start to play out, ahead of cap raise price being released, going to be a bit of a bloodbath ahead. Makes little sense the volumes resting on the buy side currently. Blind faith, or simply excited coming out of lockdowns and boarders opening, yet oblivious to the enormous debt the cap raise will simply be paying back. Dilutiing shareholders ownership and value of their existing shares?? Surely most investors can see that?
We're connecting to the world says Greg ..... connectivity is an important part of the Kia Mau Thrive strategy
is that "Thrive: or "DIVE!!!!!"
the buy side cant be all shorts right?
who's SHORT!!!!
this almost needs a Tax Payer funded film from the NZ FILM Commission...
the same executives at FILM NZ that ran away from the Tax Payer interview over MILKED!!
WHO's GETTING MILKED HERE!!!!
cant wait to read the preso from SHAZ HQ!!!!
Book your seats now for the ride of your life!!!!
Its just like a when you AVERAGE DOWN Folks!!!
Step right up and we will double the Gift prize this week if you take up this offer from your host and hostess at AIR NZ!!!
Complete with Photo of a beagle in a biplane with goggles!!!
here he is folk's your friendly local stock market advise complete with goggles!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOjZAN5bo2g
handsome looking beagle and very very popular!!!