Yes, 1987 through until 2018.
31 years.
Let me know if you need the data.
I think the total market cap was bigger in 1987 nominally than now even and in real terms FAR FAR bigger.
Printable View
NVDA is the canary.
Google's obnoxious AI overviews is getting trashed everywhere you look online as it is pants (coming to NZ soon). Such a visible failure suggests the end of AI for AI's sake is near.
Will lead to a focus on revenue and that is where the AI boom like most booms will be found wanting. A focus on revenue, will lead to optimising capital expenditure and further efficiency improvements along the lines of GPT-4o. Doing a bit less, faster with much smaller models. All leads to less need for Nvidia's products and ultimately data centre capacity.
Thanks Sailor, that's shocking.
Our entire market, according to that blackrock guy on cnbc, is just $90b USD.
I had no idea it was that low.
I wonder if we're approaching that 1987 moment where NZers walk away from our market for 20 plus years...or forever.
Here ya go. Its a log scale chart. Monthly. Sorry, it looks like its been re-scaled smaller when I added it
Attachment 15110
Thank you, Cause. That's incredibly interesting.
A great chart.
Now my thoughts are this. I only got to retire early because I held my nose and invested in that stomach churning period from 2009 to 2013 and kept on investing.
I'm only 8 per cent NZ shares, partly because performance has been so poor relative to everything else. I never started at 8 per cent!
I do like to tinker, which almost always never works out. Nonetheless, I'm tempted to do a bit of rebalance and increase my NZ shares to 10 percent. I'd do it via Simplicity's NZ Share fund because of its very low fees.
I always have 5 per cent cash, so I might dip into that.
Just thinking out loud here.
Everything feels like such a turd sandwich in this country now.
But have we reached peak turd sandwich. I don't know.
@Bull, did you see this? Interesting
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wa...ly-capitulates
Like you I only have a small % in NZX. I think your fund tracks a Morningstar index so the following is not really a comparison. Nonetheless, I am of the view that the NZ20 is a better index to follow that the NZ50 and is a truer equivalent as NZ's S&P500. Even though sector composition is similar to NZ50, the number of companies are in proportion to the size of the NZ market and under performing companies are dropped faster (and vice versa). The NZ20 well outperforms the NZ50: 1.58% per annum over the last 11 years. The higher market cap companies of the NZ20 also attract more coverage and investor interest.
That's an interesting point.
Kernel Wealth like their NZ20 index I see. It appears to have performed better than the broader NZ market.
Feels like many possibly waking up to the fact that while NZ might be a great place to live, that doesn't automatically mean it will be a great place to invest?
I have naively believed this until now. But the rose-tinted glasses are off.
With the access we all have to international markets and rising migration, alternative investments, etc hard to see the trend reversing?
We already have no CGT on NZ shares and the FIF regime. What else can the Govt really do?
It has to be said Bobdn, you are almost certainly one of the best investors in NZ and I would bet good money that you have destroyed all of the professionals by a very wide margin.
How?
By sitting on your arse.
All of these people doing all of this analysis and work and trading and god knows what else.
You just index and don't mess with the formula that you know will win out over the long term. You look at the evidence and act accordingly.
You know when you pick individual stocks it doesn't work out, so you don't. You keep it simple and stick to the rules you've set and that is that.
You don't give a crap about the news or all the pros calling for massive recessions or wars or anything.
I'd say you're within the top 1% easily.
It is a breath of fresh air.
Tried to tell my GF's Dad the same thing but he said it was too boring. I asked him if travelling the world playing the top Golf courses would be boring.
Thanks Sailor! You're too kind. Many failures along the way but I got there in the end.
Just asking. What does retire 'early' actually mean.
I found that going fishing, surfing, down hill mtb (golf but not for me) etc is just not the same unless it's adrenaline plus unwinding the stress.
That's why I chucked the desk job and bought a farm. So that I can work and play.
Well done on the $$$ from investing. I will learn and get it right one day.
Retired at 51. I lead a modest life and am not wealthy by most NZ sharetrader standards. Never bored. Schedule adventures from time to time so I can talk about my adventures and sound like I'm having a productive retirement.
YouTube is an essential element of retirement as is Audible.
I think you are probably one of the "richest" participants in this forum. It strikes me you have set yourself up in a way you can enjoy your life and seem happy with your lot. It is a rich man that can choose what they want to do rather than be tethered to the tyranny of work or the endless need to make more paper. Congrats.
I'll admit I am more than a little envious :)
I started a bit too late. My investment journey didn't start until quite late in my life and I had kids later than average as well. Not that I would swap them for all the tea in China. Mind you my 20's and 30's have some memorable moments ;)
rbnz leaved unchanged , but track pushed out with posibility of more rate hikes :scared: nzd rally big time on that
It's hard to disagree with Adrian's position. But it hurts!
Orr put big dagger through the hopes of any rate cuts this year, there goes the housing market to trash.
The RBNZ is a joke.
They screwed by giving it away and the poor ignorant NZer went berserk and forgot they had to pay it back at higher rates in 2/3 years something Jacinda, Robertson and Orr left out when telling everyone to spend up. Regardless of the dribble from Orr today I still think we get a cut last quarter of the year unless he really wants to send the economy into to total oblivion..
But someone on sharetrader said they tots feel rates are coming down soon.
Actually, everyone on sharetrader
I'm confused.
With Banks falling over each other in trying to get some business from few buyers in the property market ...all trying to reduce rates as much as possible
RBNZ statement was expected to curb premature loosening in bonds market ...but will it last ...we will see ...last qtr rate cuts very much on horizon
Its a big hit to property sentiment for sure - the OCR being such a headline figure. Many people I know of have re-fixed on 1 Year will be a bit gutted. My guess is many an investor waiting for this announcement before deciding on whether to take advantage of the brightline changes in July will see a bump in the number of properties on an already saturated market
Unemployment still rising. We will see
Economy is a slow moving beast, but feels like its tipping down pretty hard now. One after the other NZ stonks reporting bad numbers, KMD, WHS, Micheal Hill, Fletcher, ARG, SML...
Feels grim in Wellington I tell ya, the Kainga Ora restructure will be pretty massive in terms of job losses and their massive build programme drying up. I have been told that they have got a full build prog until June 25, and past that they arent making committments due to the review.
I am one of those who think/thought RBNZ will need to cut by the end of the year. Only a few months left, so maybe they make it into early 2025.
Lets all do a BOBDN and buy during the horrible recession of 2025. Hoping my ~30% bond allocation gets a lift and I can swap out into some depressed blue chips (Im looking at you Comvita, Fletcher, SML...lol)
I just spent a few moment perusing the comments on various outlets regarding reactions to this announcement. The ignorance is staggering. There is so little understanding of banking. To be fair its complicated but we live in an age where we can educate ourselves easily.
My read is Orr is trying to get bang for interest rate buck, playing it hard in rhetoric without having to do anything to spook spending further.
I was short NZD up until yesterday, closed out and reset bigger at 61.45 as I figured it would drift off after the announcement & so far so good.
It will be interesting to see what Europe / London does on the open.
Yeah then he will cut to hard to quick and create another asset bubble.
It will be a dark winter for everyone. I suspect spring could be the time we see a little brightness, thou we won't see this the the figures until like you say early 25, unless we see data late 24.
Yes, and created by a bunch of inept socialists. Go figure
Sharetraders, think carefully about this, I just sent to my agent.
Even if I can save one of you it's worth it.
Hi *******,
Hope all is well, I'll have to drop in sometime to pick up my gift or whatever it was.
Nearly a year since the below exchange, all the sophisticated insiders that you and/or Ray White have access to... who were telling the agents that rate drops were imminent... Guess they are still getting paid to make forecasts! I remember you earnestly telling me what was going to happen to interest rates over the coming Summer at the table like it was yesterday.
What surprises me more is that you will not have one single client that remembers what was getting said last July and is now reminding you about it. All those same people will now be listening to the new forecasts being made.
Reserve Bank now saying 3rd quarter of next year... Of course they have zero clue either.
If any professional ever makes any forecast, the very first question is, what is their prior record with this forecasting. But nobody ever asks that.
Agreed,
Soon enough he ( or someone else in his seat) is going to be pulling down the OCR as hard as they can, trying to stimulate a stagnating economy…and it will be no different around the world…just like it was before Covid…
Quantitative easing provided the stimulus, now is over we cannot but go back to what the true state of affairs was…
UK inflation down to 2.3%
sb9.
Read again Toddys post.
This dagger....geez...
I ask you do we have the highest valued residential mkt in the world.
NZ inc I believe has relied on house price appreciation....past administrations have relied on this for decades.
Surely any collapse is inevitable.
Volatile night after Fed notes published.
I think the market was looking for an excuse to pull back after stretching to record highs in many areas.
Enjoying the volatility.
Picked up some gold, in & out of the DOW & NASDAQ & still short Kiwi.
Will look to establish a NASDAQ short on the volatility of the NVIDIA earnings.
NBDA revenue $26b beating expectations $24.65b up $260% yoy. EPS $6.12 beating expectations $5.59. 10 to 1 stock split. Going from 90 to the moon sounds easier than 900 to the moon :)
you should be studing nvidia from your value perspective to work out where you went wrong in your thinking that OCA is superior to nvidia in growth outlook based on your anaylsis. your $1000 per mth in nvidia would have made you much more money than 1000 IN OCA.
I recall you suggested nvidia was way overvalued at a much lower price.
I think he is getting at the ongoing spat between SR and yourself daytr. Dont rise to any bait, stay in your lane, ignore the jibes....
We all suffer when you respond, have to read the back and forth drivel...
I suggest re-reading what I actually posted bull. Yes I called it overvalued. I stand by that statement today.
No doubt it's an amazing company that I'd love to own shares in at the right price, but no way am I willing to pay 2.5 trillion USD for a company earning less than $100 billion in revenue. No way can I (or anyone) predict Nvidia's revenue growth, and margins 10-20 years out, which is likely what is required to justify such a valuation. NVIDIA as an already large company needs to have revenue growth, and margins better than any other company in the world in order for someone to make even an average return at this price.
bit short sighted there
if the ai market compounds at say 25% per annum then nvidia earnings could soar 100s of % more over the yrs considering its dominant position. stock might be very cheap still
OCA on the other hand market might grow in single digits and oca doews not have a dominant position.
nvidia wins hands down
green energy rush is on in NZ
Resources Minister Shane Jones announces plan to double export earnings from mining, says industry is 'back in business'
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/polit...-business.html
The Draft Minerals Strategy for New Zealand to 2040, which is now open for consultation, proposes producing a critical minerals list for New Zealand and undertaking a detailed stock take of the country's known mineral potential
cool we need something other than cows to make NZ wealth , esp with fonterra going backwards
'The price is an integral part of every complete judgment relating to securities. In the field of common stocks, the danger of paying the wrong price is almost as great as that of buying the wrong issue. The new-era theory of investment left price out of the reckoning, and this omission was productive of most disastrous consequences'.
1934 SA
No body knows the market direction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QETkeRCBkXw
The Power of Fear: Why Great Companies Go On Salehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_liJyYaCVuE
The NZX is trash. Prove me wrong.
With a different timeframe I think very differently. After seeing nothing I wanted to buy for a whole year, now I see bargains everywhere. I see similar opportunities today that were available over those crazy Covid low days. Today's market is an absolute dream for value investors like me. I couldn't imagine market conditions that would suit me better, with a war chest of cash I have been waiting to unleash on just such a market opportunity such as this.
SNOOPY
PGW for one - down 25% from when mentioned just a couple of weeks ago.
This is not meant to be criticism of Snoopy at all (we are all grown ups responsible for our own investments) and I value their posts, but I think even the big dogs of ST have been caught off guard by this weakness.
SPK (the highest yielding large cap, the yield bump caused by temporary drop in large enterprise projects which has lowered the share price) , HGH (now funded and poised to refine the Australian business arm) , SCT (on the lowest historic PER for 14 years, yet divie was just boosted) , and PGW (bought low, waiting for the rural recovery).
Although there is a caveat on PGW, which potential investors need to be aware of:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...=1#post1054092
I have topped up on all of those this year, so far.....
SNOOPY
What is the opportunity cost of investing in NZX? While other global markets are making ATH the NZX is in the doldrums. How much did it cost you not being invested in say, the S&P500 from the end of '23?
Anyone with capital snapping up discounted NZX stocks should do very well in the medium term.
It's just about timing. Go too early then yes, there is an opportunity cost. Get your timing right and you could see eye watering returns.
Lower interest rates, recovery of the rural sector and increased GDP per capita through technology efficiencies and dare I say it, working harder for longer.
Only a fool would give up on NZ. And for those that think the grass is always greener living overseas, then go for it.
Oh I would have been heaps better off if I had put that money in an S&P500 at the start of the year, no doubt about it. But the thing that puts me off the US markets is their dependence on the so called 'magnificent seven'. And some of the valuations in that company set are so sky high, that as the investment fashions change you could find your portfolio going backwards in value very quickly. That is not a risk to the hindsight investor of course. But it is a real risk nevertheless. The other issue if I did that would be that my investment would be cashflow negative as I would fall under the FIF income tax regime.
If you think in terms of where your NZX investments sell their products or services, you can get good exposure to overseas markets, even if the majority, or even all, of your investments are based here on the NZX.
SNOOPY
Perhaps part of the issue with the performance of nz share market .
KIWISAVER TURNS SHARPLY INTERNATIONAL
The RBNZ's monitoring (T43) of the funds sector shows that total KiwiSaver assets rose to $115.234 bln bln as at March, a new record high. However there was a huge fall in assets invested in New Zealand, now under 41%. Recall it was just over 50% in December 2020, and was 60% in 2008. If it had held at 50%, that would have involved more than $10 bln more invested locally. 62% of all assets are in equities or unit trusts (19% in NZ, 43% overseas).
Just buy the equal weight SP500 fund. Problem solved.
You don't get good exposure to overseas markets by NZX investments selling product there when we are at the arse end of the world and cant produce anything desirable efficiently.
Or just buy Berkshire which will destroy any return you can get from the NZX and do it with less risk.
nvidia on fire after those results .
Hope MLN.nzx hold some of that nvidia stock