Gez where did all that hidden intrinsic heaps of value suddenly disappear to ? ;)
SR will be most p*ssed off when the takeover docs hit his inbox ;)
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Gez where did all that hidden intrinsic heaps of value suddenly disappear to ? ;)
SR will be most p*ssed off when the takeover docs hit his inbox ;)
Takeover talk usually starts when punters are in the red and are past capitulation and want instant relief. I would be disappointed if it happened. The NZX is pretty small and all options seem cyclical, every one that goes off the board is one less future opportunity.
If you take a good look at the current casualty list on the NZX it is extensive. Some were my fav did payers and the day will come again for those I'm sure. People always say you should take at least a 5 year view here and if you think you will need money even in 10 years be careful. I think that is forgotten easily.
Where will OCA be in 5 years? Hopefully in my portfolio.
Frankly, with current government (no matter whether Labour or National flavours) policy settings, I think the NZX is doomed to remain small and cyclical with a large number of de listings as a result of takeover or migration to overseas exchanges. I thought MET was a nice recovery stock. So with ARV and OCA, which will be the next RV to head into some other country’s portfolio?
Absolutely right, mike2020 regarding talk of takeovers. There are some rather sore-bootie OCA shareholders!
It astounds me that MSCI announced OCA's indexing exit on Feb 2 and people kept buying the shares - anyone with any market sense should & would know that OCA's sp was only going to go one way until index exit day!
In fact, there were 21m shares traded - allowing the selling shorters and institutions to make a nice gain.
5 years or 1 week, knowing or being aware of market dynamics is important.
I'd argue anyone with any market sense should know there is no certainty in markets. There are plenty of reasons why the SP could have bottomed before index day and it did in fact find a low two days prior.
30M shares sounds like a lot but the reality it is chump change for any institution looking to take a significant stake in OCA. It was an optimal time to buy with the additional liquidity being sold on market eg ANZ purchasing 10M+.
No one knows who else might have been looking to take advantage of the forced selling.
Takeover rumblings? We will see.
Hi Maverick, first time poster, I really enjoy your analysis of OCA. When I look at the HY 2024 cash flow statement I see $105m in ORA receipts, how does this relate to your HY number of $130m for what seems like the same line item (ORA new and resales)?