Not intending to pick on you ... but this post is an excellent example that religion (a believer!) and investment strategies don't match.
Obviously - nobody (including me or you) can predict how the share price will go from here, but blind faith it will recover is as bad and non-sensical than shear fear that the world will end for this company.
So - what do we know?
- A2M is an easily scalable and so far fast growing marketing company for a product consumers want (and some of them need).
- (forward) Revenue CAGR around 40, well yes until the blip they announced for the current year.
- (forward) earnings CAGR around 30, will be less now, but no doubt they will stay profitable even during the blip.
- ongoing expansion into the worlds largest domestic market (the US)
- Very healthy balance sheet (liabilities to assets something like 21%);
- huge cash balance (i.e. war chest);
Yes, the current year clearly will provide a deviation from the growth trend, but trends have a habit of regressing to the mean, don't they? Is this Covid thingy really likely to destroy A2's future growth opportunities in eternity by inconveniencing one of their sales channels if we assume that mankind gets Covid within the next 12 months or so under control and that even A2 managers might be able to think about different sales channels and different markets if they have time to think hard enough?
Of course - balance and winner might be right that management is often too optimistic and reluctant to admit previous errors in judgement (they are ...), which results in the famous adage "down grades come always in threes" (i.e. 2 down, one to come).
Possible, i.e. it might make sense to sell now and buy back cheaper. Could be a sensible strategy for traders, and may or may not work out. Not sure about others, but I find it always easier to identify the peaks and troughs with hindsight ... not so easy during the action ;):
However - this is clearly not the time to write A2M off for all times ... they are a healthy company with a great story and a great product. If there have been good reasons to buy them 6 months ago, than none of these reasons has changed (but a minor timing issue).
Some famous investor said once there is a time to sell, a time to buy and a time to go fishing. Personally I still need to make up my mind whether for A2 its currently the second or the third, but the time to sell is in my view well passed by ... and panicking is never a good response to share market events.