Originally Posted by
Fiordland Moose
I think one of the key takeaways from the Forbar report is it further sheds light on the maintainability of a portion of Rakon's revenue and earnings. Rakon won in whats been described as a one off, opportunistic contract from a tier 1 provider within its Iot, Emerging & Other Division - which looks to have contributed an etra $28m in revenue and $18.6m in gross profit / EBITDA to the group result. Gross profit for this division have averaged around $1.1m historically and forbar forecast the same result going forward, whereas in FY22E it is forecast to be $19.7. It's possible Rak is awarded ongonig revenues from the customer after the contract but forbar don't assume it.
So one could argue ongoing maintainable EBITDA using FY22e as a base is $50m (guidance) less 18.6 = 31.4.
Still a nice trendline of growth from core operations > $14.5m (FY20) > 23.5m > 31.4m (f22 maintainable) > 37.5m (fy23 forbar estimate)