Thanks, looking forward to seeing what Genesis' independent assessment comes up with.
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Thanks, looking forward to seeing what Genesis' independent assessment comes up with.
Forsyth report says GNE was the biggest gainer and added +1,279 customers to its books, knocking TPW from its perch as the fastest growing brand! What a turn around! Target price up 2 cents to $2.09
Cool, thanks for the info. At $2.09 I'll still be down (not counting dividends:)
At long last
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/226518.pdf
It was as poorly written as the CEN market update a couple of days ago, and we all know how that bombed........
It lacked a simple explanation of key information that allows people to associate the field reserve update to company value and future eps.
So only the more astute people will understand how much value GNE gained as a company and how much capital spend will be deferred as a result
And releasing it a day after an investor presentation. Such poor timing. Why not release it the morning of an investor presentation and use the presentation as an opportunity to explain the effects......
I also note that the investor presentation contained confirmation that future dividends, including 2016, are unlikely to be fully imputed (as pointed out here by some posters a few months back)
Below is the table produced by NZOG on the Kupe field upgrade on 28th October 2015. (NZOG owns 15% of the Kupe field.)
NZOG share of Kupe Reserves Previous 2P Developed Reserves 30-06-2015 Previous 2P Developed Reserves less production since 01-10-2015 2P Developed Reserves at 01-01-2015 Percentage Change Sales Gas (PJ) 18.4 17.4 23.3 (+5.9) +34% LPG (kilotonnes) 79.9 75.7 97.4 (+21.7) +28.7% Light Oil (millions barrels) 0.8 0.7 1.0 (+0.3) +43.2% Millions of barrels of oil equivalent (total) 4.4 4.2 5.6 (+1.4) +34.7%
Now compare that to the table released by Genesis Energy today. (Genesis Energy owns 31% of the Kupe field.)
Genesis Energy share of Kupe Reserves Previous 2P Developed Reserves 30-06-2015 Previous 2P Developed Reserves less production since 01-10-2015 2P Developed Reserves at 01-01-2015 Percentage Change Sales Gas (PJ) 38.1 36.0 47.7 (+11.7) +32.6% LPG (kilotonnes) 165 156.5 199.4 (+42.9) +27.4% Light Oil (millions barrels) 1.6 1.4 2.0 (+0.6) +42.1% Millions of barrels of oil equivalent (total) 9.1 8.6 11.4 (+2.9) +33.4%
The only differences in percentage gains can be put down to rounding errors. No news here. The only question is, why did GNE take more than a month longer than NZO to release the same results to the market?
SNOOPY
I think that given the tanking in the oil price, there will be no particular incentive to speed production from the Kupe well head to increase oil barrel earnings, and as a result, gas earnings due to the associated extra volume in the short term.
The need to defer secondary drilling to further extend the life of Kupe means now no exploration expenditure surprises for a while. The can has been kicked down the road about 12-18 months is how I interpret the figures. Good news, but not earnings defining news. I don't see any annual increase in eps flowing through. But the Kupe field will have at least 12 to 18 months added to its economic life by this announcement.
As to how much will be saved by not having to drill so soon, that may not be knowable. Drilling a hole to hit a new economical vein of supply is to an extent a 'hit and miss' event.
SNOOPY
A few months back you re-valued the "Kupe contribution to share price" as condensate = $0.12 & gas = $0.19. Total $0.31
An extra 33% of reserves should add an additional $0.10 contribution per share. Granted the underlying price assumptions may have changed, but still a reasonable guide
Unlike drilling a "hit or miss" well, not needing to drill a well will always benefit shareholders
Deferred drilling/pumping etc = more fcf available to pay out as dividend.