Heading towards that 600 peat mentioned
Cool!
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Heading towards that 600 peat mentioned
Cool!
Whether this meets the classic investment definition of a consumer staple or whether its a consumer essential, (tell someone who cares) as I couldn't care less as long as the price keeps going up and people keep buying the stuff, I'm happy :) Even if the price stays the same ad infinitum and they pay ~ 50 cents per annum in fully imputed dividends I'm as happy as can be :)
still tracking nicely
You watch, i will hold.;)
oh no craigs is only forecasting at most 40c in divs for the year meaning a final div of only 28c possibly well short of peoples expectations and a lowering of price target.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12191876
https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...98/financials/
Thanks for posting bull, that's good news.
Average analyst expectations for dividends are
FY19 38.7
FY20 51.0
FY21 56.3
Craigs expectation of 40 cps for FY19 is slightly above the average analyst (and suggests a final divvy of 27.5 cps fully imputed) and its great to hear they are expecting an operational update from ZEL in the next couple of weeks.
I'm not complaining but the 24% increase in divi from '19 to '20 seems excessive. That said anything more than a year ahead's a usually something of a guess rather than writ in stone.
At the presentation i went to latter last year they est $20 million this year i think, in synergy savings from the chevron acquisition. Cant find the post to verify it its on sharetrader somewhere.
Share price continues to recover okay for what some people think is a consumer "discretionary" company. Anecdotally, Z station at Waiuku yesterday was absolutely flat out mid morning with people buying fuel and all sorts of things. Challenge up the road which offers very poor facilities had nobody there.
Maybe people want all the facilities of a full service fuel retailer or does Z and its sub brand Caltex simply have all the really good sites already tied up ?
Anyone know if z's margins are higher on diesel or are the same as petrol??
Wow and wow .....stunning news ...$6.80 here we come
Things going well ....profit upgrade .....divie might be 47 cents
And my guess next year will be even better
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...705/293954.pdf
Health and safety performance not too good ....big increase in Lost Time Injuries not good (9 for the month not good)
But heck as long as they making zillions shareholders shouldn’t be worried about a few injured staff eh
nice open had to take some profit on that nice rally last week or so
Very happy with the operational update today and confirms my belief that no matter how various fund managers classify ZEL it is indeed a consumer staple that the vast majority of customers must buy on a very regular and repetitive basis.
Mid point of dividend forecast (42.5 cps) is well above previous analyst consensus forecast of 38.7 cps.
I would speculate that after the market's disappointment with the companies interim dividend the board will want to try and pay towards the top end of the new range of (38-47 cps).
Happy holder.
Certainly is a good little upgrade this morning Beagle. Great to see both EBIDTAF and dividend guidance increased and also like the words "more stable crude outlook" that should help bed in better margins. Happy I've been accumulating over the last week and got my last lot this morning. Now happily holding.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...705/293954.pdf
Full detail of announcement above and sharechat article below
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...-oil-slumphtml
look where the share price was last time they mentioned 420m-450m
It was $7.50 ..... so $7 plus here we come ...yippee
Repost of chart from a week or so ago ...I'll update when it gets back to $7
wonder if around that 6 i mentioned will be resistance?
anyway greens are pushing for ev subsidies looking to introduce bill
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/polit...tric-cars.html
this will have big implications for z if subsidies passed to encourage business to uptake ev ... z has a big commercial business so loss here would be big something to kepp an eye out for in parliamant
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110...back-on-target
Hold these for the Dividend...so good news for Mrs Mcdongle...But with Auckland signed up to ban petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030.. And buses by 2025 will be interested in how they are going to fill this void...
Maybe better buy before the Aussies wake up at midday
This is an interesting read .......On the Ebb and Flow of Luck
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/fickle-fortune/
at this point of time it looks like timely exit yesterday that 6 dollar mark brought out the sellers. maybe because they didnt grab back a huge chunk of the downgrade profits mentioned in nov and the 15m gained back can just as easliy reverse again
guess the div will attract plenty of punters so maybe it will go higher in the immediate future to reflect this even if it still a long term decline so still keep a few
Event analysis
Oil Price Relief for No-Moat Z Energy with Earnings Guidance Increased. FVE Upgraded to NZD 8.30.
Z Energy has upwardly revised fiscal 2019 earnings guidance by around 5% to NZD 420-450 million in replacement cost, or RC, EBITDA, accounting for a decline in the crude price and reversal of the price lag. In a falling crude market, Z Energy enjoys better retail and commercial trading conditions as fuel becomes cheaper for customers, and reduced their price-sensitivity shifts consumption towards full-service offerings. Prior to crude's retreat, Z Energy had been experiencing the most challenging operating environment in its eight-year history. But Brent fell 40% to December, from a high of USD 86 to USD 51 per barrel, providing some relief. We recently reiterated earnings detractors were short term in nature only. Recovery is now underway, though not soon enough to completely recover fiscal 2019 earnings. Z Energy previously made two earnings guidance cuts from an original RC EBITDA guidance estimate of NZD 450-485 million. Latest guidance is still around 7% below that original midpoint.
Z says crude markets remain volatile with Brent already having risen back above USD 60. Upgraded guidance assumes crude remains within a range of USD 60-70 per barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year to March. DPS guidance is also increased to NZD 0.38-0.47, inclusive of the interim NZD 0.125 paid in December. Z had previously downgraded DPS to an unspecified range, from an original target of NZD 0.50-0.55. Our DPS forecast had overoptimistically remained at the high end of expectations.
Our new fiscal 2019 RC EBITDA and dividend forecasts are set at guidance midrange levels of NZD 435 million and NZD 0.425; changes of plus 14% and minus 5%, respectively. We had been expecting a higher dividend payout ratio of 110% versus 83% now. Our fiscal 2019 EPS forecasts increases 25% to NZD 0.51. Fiscal 2020 is little changed at NZD 0.60. Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share, largely equivalent to time value of money.
Morningstar 23/1/19
From BP's post - Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share,
Love the talk of $8.30 ...even though its been up close to that before
BlackCross not BlackPeter!
another up day today.... yesterday was the first red candle on my chart for a long time - inevitable that there was one sooner or later
Attachment 10278
we may need the overbought factor visible in the indicators to ease off before next targets of 161% extension and further are achievable.