Thank Xerof.
I can make sense of it.
I think my highest bid is $1.12.
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I'll say $1.12 -13(plus commission).
Yeah , I reckon! I've been watching this one very closely and up until a week ago it seemed very apparent someone or someones where trying to hold the SP price down. Quite the opposite of Macquarie trying to push it up to flog off. I thought the way the selling bids had settled to normal trading late last week that either the game had finished and the deal done or whoever it was had run out of bullets. Either way I figured, without the suppression, the SP was in for a good week.
Normally I try to focus on the business first and the shareprice 2nd, but this is pretty damn exciting to be part of. How sad is that.
Looks like not going to get trampled on by the pachyderm after all, just keep calm :eek2: https://www.facebook.com/10000998227...6245439384860/
Looks as though the price is $1.10.
Now I will just have to wait to see how many I brought.
Be interesting tomorrow to see how many if any I managed to get my snout into.[/QUOTE]
Good luck Beagle & thanks for clarifying several things today.
Looks like when the market resumes there's currently only a handful under 115.
Will be interesting to see the SP at close tomorrow though it's long term am looking at.
So a $1.10 ...suppose that’s a bargain of sorts
I've still got my order sitting there at $1.13 - will wait to see how things pan out.
Looking back at when SUM had its main shareholder sell up in 2013 I don't think this first OCA placement will actually do much to the share price at all.
I am certainly excited to see the announcement and am very pleased Macquarie have shown their hand and actively exiting but I don't think much will change today.
SUM had a majority shareholder who had 56% and they sold theirs off in the same way as this first tranche of OCA. The SUm situation seems identical to OCA. They sold 19% in the first round followed by a second wave of 14% 2 months later and the last wave of 23.2% 5 months after that.
The first SUM placement was at a 7% market discount, the share price rose about 15% over the following month. The second wave was a discount of about 2.5% and the share price gave up half of its recent 15% rise almost instantly. The third wave and the last I haven't figured out what discount it sold at yet, the share price gave a small insignificant rise but quickly gave that up.
All in all the SUM share price was pretty unaffected by the exiting of its cornerstone holder. The SUM share just keep steadily climbing almost unaffected at all.
For those of us who aren't as knowledgeable about these placements, what would you expect the price to be ?
1) a bit or significantly higher or lower on opening today ?
2) any expected movements within the day
3) closing higher or lower than the $1.14, halt price ?
I'm trying to understand the mechanics in this process.
Cheers.
Thanks Black Peter.
Yes W69, people seem to have accepted $1.14 as the standard on-market price from now on.
I'm wondering if there are some people who might have obtained huge parcels at $1.10, with borrowed cash, needing to sell some of their existing holdings to fund their purchase ?
Put a bid in at $1.12 through FCNZ. Was allocated 2/3rds of what I bid for at $1.10. Pleasing outcome
Given that uncertainty around the overhang must have acted as a hand brake on the SP & now with first tranche sold (& well supported ) so can see a clear path forward, and with v safe fundamentals & reasonable divy, my intuitive guess is a gradual careful climb to low/mid 120's over next few weeks.
Why would anyone sell at these levels just when much uncertainty removed & the outlook so promising?
Plus so much money in super funds, bank deposits etc looking for a safe home with better returns.
Of course having stuck my neck out will probably be proved totally wrong :)
Interesting - I got all the shares I asked for at 1.10 :t_up:. I do feel privileged, but maybe I just didn't asked for that many ;) or my broker got a larger allocation;
Looks like it maybe a high of $1.14 for the day. A big order comes and takes at $1.14 and many more get slapped down at $1.14. I will wait patiently and see where the sp may head
I think that's very wise. A small percentage of investors won't be able to resist playing the arbitrage of selling at $1.14 and booking a tiny profit after brokerage each way, but I think the vast majority invested for the medium / long term because this is a compelling growth opportunity no matter how you slice and dice it. Very happy to get some allocation and I'll be holding long term as I've seen what's happened with SUM other stocks like RYM and only mugs sell early.
I cant think of any better retirement plan. Already hold RYM, bought into SUM recently and today got 70% of request for OCA at $1.10 and picked a few more up at $1.13. Come retirement this pig wont know when to either keep rolling in the muck or keep snout in the trough. And once I stop pigging out I hoping I'll get a shareholder discount to move into one or others properties depending on my state of mind at the time.
So how many bought off brokers and sold on market to fund the purchase today for .03 profit ( less tax if there is any ) ?
Still not enough to ignite any interest on the ASX. Zero trades so far and only 3 buyers / sellers. Just wait until this one gets onto their radar!
I was too stingy to get any at the $1.10 price.
Never mind OCA is 6% of the portfolio already and with SUM at 13% I dont want to be too overweight in the retirement sector
As an aside - how many broker relationships do you guys run? How do you manage it? ASB seem to never lead any placement or underwrite anything but they have my margin account so its dead easy. Any advice?
Two for me
ASB for trading
Craigs for investing
Also clear and transparent for the IRD and accountants.
I just deal with Craigs for both NZ and Australia.
Wow what a day to offload shares the whole market is down 1.4%. Oceania is doing better than most others.
Good solid feel to OCA at this level based on compelling fundamentals. I see underlying earnings of 11.5 cps (up 37%) for FY19 based on the dramatic uplift in the number of units to be developed and delivered this year. This puts OCA on a forward PE of just 10. I think this truly compelling given their proven business model, stellar care reputation which is second to none and well defined pipeline of consented developments looking further out than FY19.
The possibility of PE expansion in the year ahead is VERY high in my opinion. I see a minimum of a 5% dividend yield this year so shareholders are being paid reasonably well to enjoy strong growth. Happy holder and now have a slightly bigger position than SUM other well proven company.
On a day like today I tell myself to embrace volatility and remind myself that these are needs based business's trading with massive strong demographic tailwinds for the foreseeable future.
I really see very little prospect of material downside from here but over the long run there are very few opportunities to build wealth over time that come along that are as attractive as this one. In case anyone has missed it...just bring up the graph for SUM and RYM for the last 5 years and then ask yourself if you'd like to get in at close to the ground floor with this one.
Are you slipping Roger and advising people to buy? i sure hope not.
Yeap, could easily double I reckon mate or quite possibly a fair bit more. 37% earnings growth this year followed by 20% in FY20 and FY21 (1.37 x 1.2 x 1.2) = 1.97 times your money and that's without any PE expansion at all, off by all comparisons in this sector, a very low PE base at present.
I'm sure you do Joshuatree, but not everyone on here understands the fundamentals or the effect of compounding underlying earnings growth. Just doing a bit of vision casting on where this could go and there's a fair bit of supporting historical evidence with SUM other great companies in this sector to support my thesis.
I really think its very important to look at least 5 years ahead on what a company might be valued at and in that regard I see this company having the genuine prospect of replicating the stellar gains of other great retirement stocks in their early years.
I'll keep it simple. $2 in two years, $3 in 3 years and $5 in 5 years (with divis along the way)
Hi Peat. I'm a wanganui lad too. Can I buy you a coffee sometime? Look me up under wanganui electricians if your keen. I'm the guy with all the silver vans with the blue lighting all over them ...R
ps. I don't think you can have too many SUM,ARV or especially OCA. (Funny how no one ever includes MET?)
I agree re a long term story. And to a friend(who holds big $ of NZ shares) who rang me yest asking about this OCA offer, ive said ," what you dont have ANY of these retirement /care prop stocks at all, get some now"!. But as a holder i want a much better discount before i top up so happy to wait for the possible opportunity. IMO I dont see the s/p going up at all much in the next year with this very mature bull mkt , volatility ahead,and prop prices dropping.
RBNZ look like they might be lowering the OCR. All the evidence suggests on a national average basis real estate is still increasing nicely. I do agree this bull market is mature but there are definitely pockets of value out there so I was very happy to double down at $1.10. Not much of a discount but that's reflective of value already on offer at $1.14 in my opinion.
SUM and RYM had a forward PE of around 30 in their early years...just a thought...
Probably for a different thread. But that may not be a bad thing for the sharemrket. As people get out of property they have to put their money somewhere. Term deposits hopeless, crypts too risky, metals up and down. Leaves the sharemarket - more demand. (add to that prospect of lower interest rates NZ's traditional high divvy will be attractive)
To those who got allocated shares through their broker can I ask roughly how many you were able to obtain. I presume it was several hundred thousand?
I got that assumption from my broker when we were having a general discussion on investments including Oceania. We never actually discussed numbers but I got the impression that they weren't interested in small investors for these sorts of issues so thanks mimimoke (and others) for enlightening me on that point. I will be better prepared next time.
You are best to approach Craigs and negotiate with them.
They are a lot more expensive than ASB and ANZ Securities.
I would not be able to trade in Aussie unless I used Craigs.Transfering funds,taking up rights issues, and banking dividends, I would find impossible to do,as I am not computer savvy.
So yes a lot more expensive,however it suits me, and I do get generous allocations to new issues and placements,as well as access to their research.
I can't answer the question on FCNZ ... however -
I bought my allocation through Chris Lee (I am one of his clients). I asked for and received a parcel worth $15k up to a SP of $1.11, and he didn't charge any brokerage at all.
I do assume though, that the underwriters are paying him a fee.
edit: above information was correct at the time of writing, but unfortunately just a billing error from Chris Lees office - I ended up paying 1.25% brokerage - check:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post728392
I paid $60 brokerage through FCNZ. I know that is expensive but I attribute much greater value to their advice and access to opportunities than I do to the cost of the brokerage I pay. I am investing for my children so have a long investment horizon and consider the brokerage costs as my gift to my kids.
Thanks BP, that's great, i wonder if nil brokerage was standard for everyone who got an allocation?
If brokerage was charged on 1000 shares, it would hardly be worth it.
I only use ANZ Securities so didn't bother with the allocation, but did want more shares & bought another 20,000 @ 113 yesterday which cost me about $64 in brokerage & was curious if by the time Craigs or FNZC etc brokerage was added to the 110 there was v little difference ?
OCA will get a huge amount of attention from this cash if houses are sold off and deposits are put elsewhere.
Don't forget retired folk are risk averse and this stock will have many great signals for a steady return with limited risk.
I am delighted with how many shares there are as I see OCA having the potential for a large share holder diversity and reach.
This one is for the long term hold with many more positive signs then negatives IMO.
I also contemplate the potential for OCA to be bought out by a larger retirement operator to diversify their business with the easy sweep of a well established entity into their ummmmbrella. Not only a potential from kiwi firms, and other large companies interested in this sector. Health funds, pharmacies, retirement funds (kiwi saver etc, other pension funds) the opportunity to buy a large establishment of functioning businesses.
Good day!
Well done to the Vampire Kangaroo as the Brits call MAQ. How long before the next dump of shares, im guessing not long as this one went to ready buyers.Be good to get the overhang out of the way for sure.
Does this mean Craigs kept some of the cheap shares for themselves
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...568/286375.pdf
Just to set the record straight. This information (no brokerage) was correct at the time of posting. However - his office sent me later on Friday a "replacement bill" indicating that they had to charge brokerage due to the NZX charging them as well. I.e. I ended up with something like 1.25% brokerage on top of the share price. Much more brokerage than I would have paid for a normal trade with my usual broker (ANZ Securities - but they didn't offer the opportunity to buy into this sell down), but still a wee gain compared to what I would have paid when buying the shares on market.
Thanks BlackPeter, it's an interesting question when on the one hand we're given the opportunity for a discounted buy, but on the other hand the offer is restricted to a few specific brokers who charge significantly higher brokerage than direct brokers like ANZ Securities (which is all I use) wiping out much of the advantage. Am not suggesting they shouldn't be paid extra for their research/work but just looking at it purely from cost point of view.
Just a little anecdote , I was talking to a share broker a couple of months ago, and he knew stuff all about OCA, & I ended up telling him it was one to watch. Was a bit surprised, thinking he was supposed to be the well informed expert, which I most definitely am not. If it was a horse race, he was only aware of the old favourites out front RYM, SUM, MET & not watching the exciting young filly OCA showing great potential, just getting into stride gaining in confidence & coming in fast down the back strait.:)
Sharebrokers are like posters here.
You get the good,the bad and the ugly.
A good full research broker charging at 1% is well worth it.
I am hoping on $1.10-$1.12 for these shares on market. If I don’t get that price I will win anyway with the shares I own and I will assign that money to another share or leave as cash. As for brokers unless IPOs just use your own head and do the research. From what I hear people who use brokers tell them just do what you would invest in. If you are investing lots of money would you not want to save money and do it yourself???. I spoke to someone from Forsyth Barr and they did not tell me something I already did not know. They just assure you that you are investing in the correct share and charge you a lot more than ANZ Securities. The only thing brokers do well is not use emotions. They don’t generally love a share
Those using Craigs, do they provide their paying clients with a quarterly or half yearly report on their analysis of other stocks? Like their research or view of whats hot and whats not? If so, is it any good?
Just trying to figure out if I should become a client purely so that I dont miss out on things Insto's get over using ASB/ANZ.
Just to clarify, wasn't expressing an opinion here about the pros & cons of using a share broker for general trading.
Simply curious & keen to reassure myself in this specific case, hadn't lost too much by buying (once market resumed) at slightly higher price via ANZ Securities with lower brokerage v the lower price allocation with slightly higher brokerage. Appears it was about $200 extra
ok....got nothing today that's new or interesting to add here, It's just time to comment for the sake of it.
Basically it's "sing when your winning" kind of thing. OCA (and its share price) is running like clockwork. It just chugs away and a predictable and orderly ascent as it builds its villages. The first sale of the 95 million shares has gone extremely well. The market seems to have absorbed it without blinking (thats $105 million over a few days- outstanding!).
If it was to exactly follow summersets selling of its first tranche then the OCA SP should climb a week after sell down (today) to about $1.30 over the next month.
Personally, I don't think it will climb that high yet as it's a bit of a stretch for such a young company. Although it totally is worth that IMO.
Anyway.... just happy with the real progress of the company's build rate and achievements. Now just have to practice some patience as Beagle has mentioned.
Its been chugging along quite nicely the past few days. Flushing out the profit takers at the $1.13 / $1.14 mark. Now they seem to have gone we have trades today at $1.15. Hopefully this is the start of a long, regular and monotonous climb in SP - with the occasional profit taking set back.
WOW, 1.2 mil shares just gone through knocking on the door of $1.16 ATH !!!
Yep, agree...the maths are pretty easy, SP $1.15x 20% growth 2019 x 20% growth 2020 x 20% growth 2021 =$1.98 in the spring of 2021.
I`m actually thinking the growth will be more 25% yoy but it just seems too optimistic to actually model that amount.
RYM was actually 30% annual SP growth for the first 6 years
SUM was actually 25% annual SP growth for the first 6 years
I was chatting about this to Couta1 just recently and he reckoned there was a substantial shareholder notice with attachments which showed they'd been selling a huge amount on market in the lead up to the placement. I'll see if I can find it and post a link. I might have got my wires crossed though, wouldn't be the first time lol
All I can find on public record is this, can't seem to see the attachment will full details of the timing of sales and purchases. Excerpt from SSH notice posted 5/9/18
They were certainly "working it" in terms of trading it but as to the timing of buys and sells I can't find the detail. Acknowledge that their buys and sells were of similar volume so unless sells were heavily weighted towards the latter part of that period the price suppression would have been insignificant so in the apparent absence of any further detail I will edit my earlier comment to be fair to FCNZ.Quote:
During the 4 months prior to 4 September 2018 First NZ Capital Securities Limited in the ordinary course of business purchased 4,419,847 OCA ordinary shares for a gross consideration of $5,008,733 and sold 4,690,171 OCA ordinary shares for a gross consideration of $5,308,965.
OCA capped now @ $ 1.16 will slosh around here for a while now, dammmm !
CEO, Earl Gasparich, will be presenting to NZSA in Auckland on Wednesday, 19th Sep 2018.
Details here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10844-NZSA-Auckland-Meetings-and-Events&p=729164&viewfull=1#post729164
Just a one off on that one but I am keen to wager his other relativity theory that TRA is worth $3.80+ doesn't come to pass anytime in the next 12 months !
Thanks Noodles. Will try and make this one.
Just catching up on the news this week. Impressive that Liz Coutts bought another 350,000 shares in the placement and now owns 800,000 and
Greg Thomlinson bought 2,000,000 shares.
I have moved some more funds into OCA since the result came out. I've been quiet dormant moving funds since the start of the year, but this one is one of the best stocks in terms of value.
I'll have to agree with you, maybe even earlier if you include the dividend yield over the next few years. I just wished it had a DRP but I think that would reduce its price even more right now.
I think the aging populating situation playing out is still very very early which is good news for holders. I can see the aged care part of the business really getting that scale in a few years.
They were certainly "working it" in terms of trading it but as to the timing of buys and sells I can't find the detail. Acknowledge that their buys and sells were of similar volume so unless sells were heavily weighted towards the latter part of that period the price suppression would have been insignificant so in the apparent absence of any further detail I will edit my earlier comment to be fair to FCNZ.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for getting back Beagle. I've been watching the buying and selling patterns like a hawk over the months and have been interested in the obvious share price capping at certain times. That's all just a bit of a sideshow to help with the waiting.
was thinking about it yesterday and one point us OCA fans don't bang on about enough is that apart from the enormous growth path,directors buying in, low debt, low PE, blah blah blah is that right now it pays out about 50% of profits which equals 4.1% gross.
That would be considered a reasonable return to many people.
However you slice and dice it "You just can't have too many OCA."
4.1% is the historical dividend yield mate. I am forecasting ~ 5.5% this year (taking into account the rise in underlying profit) and steadily growing from there...not too shabby is it :) P.S. Think I'll put my hand up for heaps more next time McCashin makes a move.
Small top up this morning at $1.16. I think McCashin's next move won't be until the late $1.20's and the shares are simply too cheap on any thorough FA at the current level. Sell side starting to wither away too so I thought I'd get on with the job of increasing my stake further.