Looks like insiders up: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377739
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Looks like insiders up: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377739
800 600,000 08:34 SP
Setting tone for trading into 8s and further on...
What just happened there :eek2::D
Thats a hel! of a jump right on the close today ---4%=.32c whatsup ?
Wow, some big volumes at close...
Believe today was the last day of buying for the FTSE global small cap index, huge volume for Mainfreight which was added to the index as well.
Big SP move on the ASX today - AU 804 = NZ833.
NZX SP is 820.
Suppose another capital raise is a good thing
Been quiet lately
Keeping the faith -- always good buying at 3 bucks.
Thanks Balance - I know you got cheaper
I have applied for a few, will also take part in the retail offer..
No surprises - fully subscribed and placed at $7.05.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383531
Mr market does NOT like this deal, Q is are they seeing too much into the Bus travel in the future, imo a hugh amount is built into that type of recovery !!, sub $7-00 atm.
So the Retail offer opened yesterday. Trading of SKO closed at $6.40 - down 9% since the placement. Although I note the offer price is the lower of $7.05 or a weighted average 5 day price formula.
All existing shareholders can apply for up to $50k.
Who can explain the fish hooks in this offer ?
With the SP today @ $6.34 surely the SPP will have to be reset ?
There’s your uptick
Anyone know what that the VWAP will turn out to be is ? last 5 days to tomorrow.
Based off the trading volumes and turnover over the first 4 days - my guess would be 6.85-6.90
Spp @ $6.85
Would like to buy some of these under $6
How does this have a $700m market cap with $20m revenue? So its trading 35x revenue?
Ok need to be fair... need to look prior to COVID. $26M revenue in FY20. This is the most they have ever done.
So trading 26.9x peak pre covid revenue.
I calculate a 5 year rev CAGR of only 14.9% Really?
What am i missing here?
These guys must tell an awesome story.
Looks like fisher funds are on board and they are smart people. Must be good then. All good
Good questions.
I think the story for believers is that this might turn into the Uber or amazon of the travel industry - clipping the ticket with any travel booking they facilitate.
If the story turns reality, than they might be cheap like chips. Just close your eyes and start dreaming - clipping tickets in a multi trillion dollar industry ...
Obviously - if things turn differently then the odds might not be necessarily on the side of the holders :):
From Livewire this morning.
A stock that we absolutely love, and if we had an opportunity to buy it at a lower price, we'd definitely be piling in, and that company is Serko. I don't know if you've come across Serko. It's basically a corporate travel technology company and they're a market leader in Australia and New Zealand. They've got really big deals with Flight Centre and other big corporate travel management players, which is why their brand isn't kind of front-facing with consumers.
But Serko's just done the most incredible deal with Booking.com. Booking.com scoured the globe, looking for the best corporate travel tech platform. They landed on Serko. So that was a big tick. But the really outstanding thing about this deal is Booking.com has agreed to share 50% of their revenue from building a corporate travel business in Europe with Serko. And Booking.com is one of the best-known brands globally. They've already built quite a sizeable SME travel business in Europe. So, it's a huge opportunity for Serko and we're really expecting the company to execute on that over the next 12 to 18 months. But if it was to trade down further, we'd pile in again.
Is there any forecasts or sharetrader estimates on what the booking.com deal is worth?
Hope a bit more than the $20-$26m sales they generate from "really big deals with Flight Centre and other big corporate travel management players"
Is this another PX1 and McDonalds type deal?
I am not being fatuous. I saw the price fall and started to look into the company and just raising some questions on this wonderful site full of very knowledgeable people :)
I looked at the cap raise announcement and use of proceeds. Some wonderful statements but no revenue numbers. This is my favorite statement:
"Serko will undertake targeted investment to optimise customer engagement and extend the offering across global markets to maximise the potential of the opportunity."
Righto... lol.
Ill cont with my research..
"Serko will undertake targeted investment to optimise customer engagement and extend the offering across global markets to maximise the potential of the opportunity."
That really is a shocking corp speak line. Not doing themselves any favours with that kind of babble, even if it's true.
Fair bit of off market trading today…
Didn't think my bid would get hit but there you go. Happy to be on the register at $5.60. Maybe I should have staggered down to $5 though!
Omicron wave already declining in the US, business travel should be back on track shortly.
Pretty sad story
At least cash burn hasn't increased ... still running at $4 million a month ... that's good
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...764/363972.pdf
A sad and surprising story... How is a company worth well over $600m given FY22 revenue will be below $20m? which itself was only up a few million on the $17m in revenue for FY21 (which itself was down from $27m in FY20)... hardly a growth story, a patchy story at best, and certainly a surprising story, yet apparently worth 33x FY22 revenue right now...?
Edit: I nearly fell off my chair when I saw in September of just last year Serko was a $1b company... $1b big ones (just a few months ago) for a company with the below total income track record is truly astounding!
FY19 - $24.6m
FY20 - $26.8m
FY21 - $16.9m
FY22 - $19m?
From CraigsQuote:
Serko provided a trading update this morning downgrading revenue guidance for FY22 to NZ$18-20.5m (from NZ$21-25m). The new guidance range is 11-22% lower than current consensus revenue of NZ$23.1m with the reduction in travel volumes in December/January exacerbated by the ongoing influence of COVID and its variants. Booking for business volumes have been impacted but are now back to 90% of October 2021 volumes and whilst ANZ revenues were in line with expectations up to the end of December 21, January has been soft with NZ demand significantly impacted. The low end of the new revenue range assumes volumes in each market over February and March are materially lower than the last week of January with the high end of the range assuming a gradual improvement in transaction volumes reflecting normal seasonality. Average monthly cash burn is expected to be $4m (consistent with the guidance provided last November). SKO closed -1% yesterday…and while we expect it to underperform today it is already -24% YTD so to a degree is anticipated …
I put up a couple of posts earlier this year questioning the astronomical valuation SKO was trading at. It is still incredible to think this is still valued at $600m.
Most I would pay is 10x revenue. I would be fair and price it on FY20 revenue (before covid) so say $260m valuation. Fair SP is $2.17 for me.
Even prior to covid the revenue growth was nothing special. 5 year CAGR was ~15%. Maybe 10x revenue multiple is generous?
GLHs
Nothing unexpected in here. Still trading well above my average buy-in price. Will wait and see.
What's the TA on this now? Death cross earlier? Oh dear
You guys questioning the valuation are aware of the Booking.com deal right?
Brave call from Craigs today - 'we expect it (share price) to underperform today'
Looks like revenue rebounding nicely in NA, great buying at this level!
Was pretty obvious Omicron was going to hurt the revenue short term. NZ gradually relaxing borders, onwards and upwards from here
Yes, short term its going hurt revenue but long term they'll be fine.
Most parts of NA and Europe are easing restrictions and air travel should bounce sooner. Also, lower NZD against USD will be icing on cake too.
Agree, we can't ignore the affect of Booking partnership
Always good buying at 3 bucks
It's interesting that this announcement came on the same day that our "leaders' announced opening up our boarders. Good timing I'd think...?
Denmark officially ending the pandemic and dropping all Covid related laws yesterday...
Highfalutin business associates have been flying in and out of Denmark for the past year or so with their head office now situated there after the Brexit silliness
This company is about to get into its groove in a big way. Everything is in place. I'm predicting a swift usage uptick
This bit... "Business volumes have recovered to approximately 90% of October 2021 volumes."
Time to strap in
Seems as though Aus international borders opining in couple of weeks has lit up the sp. Always good buying around or under $5 recently.
Did I see that F B have lowered their valuation, not good for the subscribers of the recent C R !
Here you are.
NEUTRAL
Serko (SKO) materially downgraded its FY22 revenue guidance last week, citing the impact of the Omicron COVID-19 variant on business travel in its key markets, firstly in Europe in late 2021, and more recently in Australia and New Zealand. SKO's share price has been hit by a combination of 1) a global technology sector de-rating, 2) travel related impacts related to the rise of the Omicron variant, and 3) stock specific disappointment on the speed and potential volume of transactions from the Booking.com contract. SKO also has yet to confirm the proposed acquisition for which it raised capital for in November 2021. We make a material cut to our target price as we take a more pessimistic view of SKO's ability to capture the European SME market, our updated WACC estimate based on a revised risk free rate, and the dilution impact from the recent capital raise. We retain our NEUTRAL rating given the high degree of earnings unpredictability, lack of execution/material cash generation to date, but note the stock does not look overly expensive vs the Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index.
link
NZX Code SKO
Share price NZ$5.50
Target price NZ$5.99 (from 8.20)
Risk rating High
Issued shares 118.7m
Market cap NZ$653m
Avg daily turnover 111.0k (NZ$779k)
link
Financials: Mar/ 21A 22E 23E 24E
NPAT* (NZ$m) -29.4 -40.8 -35.3 -14.8
EPS* (NZc) -30.0 -34.4 -29.8 -12.4
EPS growth* (%) n/a -14.7 13.4 58.2
DPS (NZc) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Imputation (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a
*Based on normalised profits
link
Valuation (x) 21A 22E 23E 24E
PE n/a n/a n/a n/a
EV/EBIT n/a n/a n/a n/a
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a n/a n/a
Price / NTA 7.0 5.8 8.2 9.2
Cash div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross div yld (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a
What's changed?
Revenue: FY22/FY23/FY24 revenue decreased by -15%/-14%/-19% respectively
Target price: Reduced by -NZ$2.21 (-27%) to NZ$5.99
FY22 revenue guidance revised downwards due to Omicron impact
SKO downgraded FY22 revenue guidance -16% to between NZ$18m to NZ$20.5m from NZ$21m to NZ$25m, citing the impact of Omicron on business travel demand. It has been partially insulated from the impact of the new variant by the normal seasonal reduction in business travel during the December to January holiday period. The upper end of guidance assumes a gradual continuation of improving transaction volumes in all markets, excluding New Zealand, for the remainder of FY22. In contrast, the lower end assumes that volumes in all markets are materially lower than current levels.
We make material cuts to our forecast Booking.com joint venture revenue
We lower our Booking.com for Business joint venture revenue assumptions given the impact of Omicron and the potential risk for future variants to slow the return towards pre-pandemic volumes in Europe. This is in addition to the uncertain future of European corporate travel longer term. The speed and potential volume of transactions in regards to the JV with Booking.com has disappointed the market thus far, although we are sympathetic to the disruption caused by the impact of Omicron. We also make small cuts to our forecast US revenue assumptions following recent conversations with channel checks and industry contracts, which has suggested that SKO has made limited progress in the US over the past 12 months. We note the lack of any company update in regards to the proposed US corporate contract win in the recent release last week.
Thanks for that. That's an interesting retrospective summary...
Red herring??
Things headingin rght direction at Serko
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/388757
Market interest seems to have buoyed over the last week or so.
Time to pay closer attention to this one.
Fair enough comment. Yet current SP still lends itself to some likely uptrend movement as things open back up and travel commences again wouldn't you agree, Markets can sometimes ignore the revenue if they see something coming back. They don't have the debt levels that AIR are facing for example the obvious will hold that SP back. The SP on SKO may be directly related to travel coming back which it already is in other parts of the world. Not sure on this one which way SP will head currently. Thoughts?
Bargain Hunter buys at $4.50, probably one of the larger funds buying up more at these prices. Fisher Funds again? SP set to rally hard when it does.
In the long term I doubt a few cents or a dollar here or there will be particularly relevant. Always nice to buy low though.
They've had 2 1/2 years of development with little expectation. I dare say the market will now have increased expectation and wish to see bigger inroads over the near term. This will need to be the last (forgivable/expected) lackluster result.
Things are moving though with hints of 100% increases to come...
Always good buying sub 3 bucks
Thanks Balance
Likely to be taken over by Booking at some stage. Val is a bit steep considering travel market.
Sko= pl1.....
Getting my ass handed to me on this one combined with NZK...
https://media.giphy.com/media/LSW8xc...lMvM/giphy.gif
SKO, top of the leader board today.. sadly it's the red one :mellow:
Even now at under 4 bucks a share its trading 22x FY22 revenue. But 11x FY23 forecast revenue.. getting there.
Had another look at the FY22 investor presentation. They have 312 full time employees. WOW. Wonder what they do all day lol. Maybe play a lot of ping pong?
Anyways, could be a buy soon?
Entrep- love your gifs lol
Sp creeping slowly into 4s after being depressed over past couple of months. With air travel sector being so busy of late, next update could be very encouraging.
Annual meeting on 31 August ...... update then?