Good business over there, you recon?
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NZ going to be even more of a non-event soon …..NZ sales now are only 12% of group sales
Been in decline for years …like in 2018 NZ sales were $143m and 4 years later 20% LESS at $114m
Got to think of KMD as a global company and don’t judge / assess on what you see in NZ
[
Been in decline for years …like in 2018 NZ sales were $143m and 4 years later 20% LESS at $114m
Why.?
Business model not working here..
Will it work anywhere.?
Low online sales means they have been left behind in that very important channel.
That is where the good retailers are achieving growth and profitability.
Sp having a little uptick/rebound right now before proceeding to below psychological level $1. Sell now if you haven't already. Not downramping, just stating an opinion
Hmm - looks like Abigale didn't get your memo:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...606/380019.pdf
Question is - does she as a director know more or less about the company than an anonymous poster?
So difficult ...
Averaging down after she bought at $1.57 a year ago - average price now $1.31 .... now $36k under water
She seems to be following what Liz Coutts does - poor Liz keeps buying Oceania shares and is best part of 1/4 million bucks under water
I suppose both are very astute and must have inside info (faith and hope) so no worries
I guess this is the problem with directors - as none of us does, they don't know the future either.
The only thing they might know more about than us is the present situation of their company and how it is positioned.
Anyway - director buying is normally a good sign unless you are shorter :p ;
Hey BP, another Director has bought more shares --- double good sign today ... exciting
Probably Chairman David sent the word out 'Our share price is really languishing, it is your duty to buy some more shares to demonstrate all is fine and the future is good. The market loves seeing director's confidence being backed up by cash '
It’s all on
Kathmandu announces new global expansion at Paris Fashion Week
Outdoor clothing retailer Kathmandu went to the biggest fashion event of the year to release its latest clothing range and announce a new global expansion into the UK, Europe and North America.
The outdoor apparel and gear brand partnered with the internationally renowned French retailer Leclaireur, based in Paris, to debut its autumn and winter 2022 collection.
Kathmandu’s global chief customer officer Eva Barrett said the collaboration with Leclaireur heralded the start of an exciting period for Kathmandu.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/r...s-fashion-week
And the directors just don't stop buying ;) - here is the third director in a row adding around 50k .... and still more exciting - for Philip it is already the second dip (he initially bought already 200k):
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/400213
Must be well above one years worth of director fees ... do they know something the market doesn't?
Bit of a look at this stock:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...-kmdnzx-kmdasx
Mmh - well ...
I think your recasting method is interesting and certainly might give others another tool how to analyse companies. Good source for ideas.
I think as well that you do highlight some valid points, however without painting or putting them into the big picture. This is likely to mislead anybody who is just relying on this analysis.
Example: It is correct that dividend was this year higher than earnings, however their average annual earnings is significantly higher than their dividend, and at this stage there are strong indications that 2022 was an unusually bad year.
Example: Yes, "Kathmandu CEO" resigned and has not yet been replaced. What you forget to mention is that he was only the Brand CEO without meaningful competences and reporting into the Group CEO, who has not changed and is currently doing as well the Brand CEO role. No big deal.
Example: You mention the low performance of OBOZ without even mentioning the reason. Their factory is in Vietnam, and had been shut down last FY for several months due to local Covid restrictions. Difficult to spin money when you are not allowed to run your factory. However - there are good reasons to assume that last year was a one off and indications from Q4 are that demand and production are humming.
Example: You didn't even mention that directors are holding significant share parcels and that they topped up recently in a meaningful way.
Ah yes - and you make it sound like changing the auditor is a bad thing. It is one of the NZSA (NZ Shareholders Association) recommendations that companies change their auditors at least once every (I think) 7 years. This avoids auditors and companies getting too cosy with each other and it avoids assumptions on the side of the auditors. Great that Kathmandu is doing that ... and beating them up for changing their auditors is clearly inappropriate.
In summary - I think your method is adding value, however to produce reports which matter you would need to look as well beyond the last two years in the books, but analyse longer term trends as well as try to understand and convey the context of the company you are analysing.
Anyway - just my 2 cents worth :) ;
Anybody else noticed the recent Share price move, or did you all take KMD out of your portfolios and watchlists after the recent fashionable doom and gloom period?
SP moved above MA100 (the pink line below) and so far holding. Sure - early signs, but certainly worthwhile to watch. I like the green shoots coming out in spring :) ;
Attachment 14284
Discl: holding;
Deserves a big rave - today's announcement
Q1 FY23 underlying operating profit has improved by nearly $30m year-on-year
All back to normal
A broker had a $1.75 target not long ago --- share price heading back that way ..... middle of next year
OI bought a small holding (my minimum holding purchase) at the end of September. It was a gut purchase without much financial analysis. I had a good experience with buying a wrong size waterproof jacket. The online purchase process and return was a breeze, fast and efficient. Out of my 15 holdings, KMD has been my best performer since.
Like this bit in the press -
In a report by Forsyth Barr analysts today about fellow retailer KMD Brands, the investment bank said the company had undergone a “transformation from a single-brand retailer to a global brand owner”. “While macroeconomic headwinds are clearly present, KMD should be in a better position to face these challenges than at any other point in its history,” analysts Margaret Bei and Andy Bowley said
One day the market will eventually recognise this
KMD share price still flirting with $1
Nobody seems to see any good in KMD - they all can't be right
Even WHS seems to be doing better
But if you were SailorRob you'd be rejoicing if share price went below a buck .... and hoping for 50 cents
Even at today's price must be the 'cheapest' stock on the NZX - and a global business at that
I apparently need to be gloomy about KMD prospects and share price more often
Always gets the share price moving up
Didn’t a guru analyst have a $1.75 target on this once
Later in the year maybe
Trading on a P/E of 20. How is it cheap?
Maybe SRob will get his 50 cents
PE of 8 to 9 on forecast 23 earnings …..going to be good year as the world opens up for global brands
Ill stick to the NZXs leading international retailer- MHJ. Trades on a similar PE of 8 to 9 (historical). Great div, buying back shares, has a 20%+ ROE. Its a proven performer with exceptional management.
KMD a bit all over the place. Financials ho-hum and always a CEO of the group or one of the brands leaving
The NZXs 'cheapest' stock might just get cheaper yet :eek2:
Alan Gray still sees value
Much respected value investor …sees a bargain when they come up
KMD on verge of a big run I reckon
Agree the MACD momentum is sharply positive.
was reading back through some posts late last year Nov/Dec and the SP SMASHED through the 100day ma.
what happened?? Looks like its back below it now
Yes, Ageee..your right again winner. It was meant to be a light hearted joke.
What has happened? KMD seems favoured by quite a few…maybe needs a sales update to get some camping butane to like a fire into the share price?
Macpac reported H1 sales to December were 55% up on pcp
Hope KMD done better than this in Aust and NZ
That be good
$1 a bit of a magnet for KMD SP.
When is this big run kicking off? i love a good train ride.
Trading update on Monday maybe?
Here is your update Rawz.........looks pretty good
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406617
MD Brands Limited (ASX/NZX: KMD, “KMD” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide the following trading update for the half year ended 31 January 2023 (“1H FY23”).
• Sales momentum has continued in Q2, resulting in record first half sales
• Group total sales for 1H FY23 (unaudited) are expected to be approximately $546 million, an increase of +34% above 1H FY22, with particularly positive trading in Australia.
o Kathmandu sales recovery continues, with total sales +51% above 1H FY22, reflecting a return of travel and tourist-related spend
o Oboz first half sales have rebounded from COVID-related supply constraints last year, growing +124%
o Rip Curl total sales have grown +18%, with strong growth in direct-to-consumer sales, while maintaining wholesale sales levels following strong growth last year
• Group gross margin remains resilient overall, with improved gross margin for the Kathmandu brand
• Underlying 1H FY23 EBITDA(1) is expected to be approximately $45 million, cycling $10.2 million EBITDA in 1H FY22, which included $5.1 million of one-off COVID assistance
Inventory levels remain elevated, reflecting the decision to temporarily build stock positions to mitigate supply challenges and to support Oboz forward orderbook growth. Pleasingly, Kathmandu inventory is approximately $24 million lower than FY22, and the Group’s inventory balance is expected to normalise during the second half as purchase orders align to improved shipping timeframes.
The Group continues to benefit from a return to travel and international tourism through January, with Kathmandu sales strengthening +52% and Rip Curl continuing its growth trajectory at +19% for the month.
The Company intends to release its results for the 6 months ended 31 January 2023 on Wednesday, 22 March 2023, with a briefing session for investors and analysts to be held at 8:30am AEDT / 10:30am NZDT.
is it good?
it looks good. but SP only up 2% so now im not sure?
• Sales momentum has continued in Q2, resulting in record first half sales
• Group total sales for 1H FY23 (unaudited) are expected to be approximately $546 million, an increase of +34% above 1H FY22, with particularly positive trading in Australia.
o Kathmandu sales recovery continues, with total sales +51% above 1H FY22, reflecting a return of travel and tourist-related spend
o Oboz first half sales have rebounded from COVID-related supply constraints last year, growing +124%
o Rip Curl total sales have grown +18%, with strong growth in direct-to-consumer sales, while maintaining wholesale sales levels following strong growth last year
• Group gross margin remains resilient overall, with improved gross margin for the Kathmandu brand
• Underlying 1H FY23 EBITDA(1) is expected to be approximately $45 million, cycling $10.2 million EBITDA in 1H FY22, which included $5.1 million of one-off COVID assistance
Looked good to me.
I tried to buy some at $1.09 limit.
Do not know if I bought any or not, as I have not received a contract note as yet.
Come on SP... this reminds me of the MHJ updates in 2021 when the numbers were so big that it was like the market didnt quite believe in it. Like if its too good to be true it probably is....
Percy- late last week i had a limit order at $1.04. didnt fill. then changed it to $1.05 yesterday. didnt fill. shame on me for trying to be cheap and save a cent or two. This morning i bought some at $1.10..............
You'd think that the KMD share price would follow the sales growth eh
quite impressive - even if from acquisitions but then they've suffered from covid stuff as well
I'd be in more if Captain Kirk left .... been there too long and a hindrance now
Me oh my.. SP only up 2% what the heck!!
BP, what’s going on? :)
Might be just another buying opportunity knocking :) ?
An opportunistic last trade? - VWAP was higher ... and it looks like today might start higher as well.
Markets (particularly the NZX) can be so unbelievable slow ... many investors still wait for their brokers to process the announcements and to receive an updated recommendation by snail mail. Don't forget as well that NZ Post is these days somewhat impaired, i.e. it might take days or even weeks for everybody to receive the update.
Anyway - amazing volume for KMD ... and still holding at MA200 ...
ACC sold $1m worth at $1.11. Way to put the handbrake on
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406748
From 7 December 2022 to 14 February 2023, ACC had the following aggregated on-market
transactions in KMD Brands Ltd:
• Sales of 936,942 shares for consideration of NZD $1,049,375.04
• Purchases of 344,070 shares for consideration of NZD $357,216.80
ACC trade:
buy 344k worth of shares at $1.038= $357k
sell 344k worth of shares at $1.12 = $385k
Profit= $28k
hardly seems worth it? or is this okay for the insto's?
From Craigs' research today.
Recovery on track.
overweight.
Price target-12 mth.....$1.44
ps Just doubled my holding at $1.10.
I see KMD joined the sub $1 club today
Short stay I reckon …so CHEAP CHEAP at the mo
Markets gone silly
Bit of a worry indeed with the result due this week.
Having said this, I also saw this decline wuh Fonterra shares prior to their announcement and they have now risen around 17%
Time will tell, but they seem incredibly cheap atm.
Am a long term holder of KMD and FSF.
KMD just one of many attractively priced stocks right now. What a delight
Low yield for a retailer. Is it expected to improve rapidly? Would it be better to gain exposure through BGP?
I have always thought it did better when we had a lot of overseas visitors. Could provide some upside.
Winner will go mad saying it again so ill do it this time lol. KMD is a global brand and NZ sales account for only 12-14% something like that of total sales ($1b)
Wonder if Rod Duke does more than just keep a watching brief on his $88m investment in Kathmandu. KMD with all its acquisition probably too big for him to do too much with it anyway.
The $88m now worth $51m and even with about $30m of divies and a bit from not taking up all his rights he still under water.
During a chat with Rod a few years ago he did tell me the divie was better than having the money in the bank ....but then the shares were more than a buck back then
Average buy was $1.83 so possibly waiting for the glory days to come again before he gets rid of them
Not like Rod being on the losing end of things eh
just wait a few decades and how old is RIP CURL and still going strong..
winner() we havt even left the COVID QE hang over and remember it took 5 years to climb out of the GFC...
lets face it it all been one perfect storm after another.
Not expecting this stock to start to hit its stride for a few years yet...
They havnt even let anyone back into the country to work on tourism have they?
or apparently they dont want tourism back...
Yep dont see this doing much till the world goes cabin crazy and starts to travel again big .. Another 5 years?
Statutory NPAT of $14.0 million; Underlying NPAT1 of $16.5 million
One thing I noticed
Group EBIT (underlying) $29.3m …RipCurl EBIT $28.8m
Shoes and Kathmandu don’t contribute much do they
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...724/391122.pdf
Well, yes - Ripcurl is a ripper!
Oboz much smaller (as well in revenue, so they might be forgiven) ... and Kathmandu at least turned positive again. Wondering, whether they are taking some of the costs for the others (not sure, how they split the costs to run the shops?).
Anyway - overall direction looks good and outlook sounds positive, though not very specific ...
Back of $1 this morning. No worries.....
always buying rip curl surf tops... who doesnt...
still dont see it back to 160 till KMD starts making some more money as travellers return...
China travellers are not back yet in any numbers and with CW2 (cold war 1 and a half) will they let them through the great wall or filter them...
KMD does best when travel is FULL ON...as they say in white water kayaking..
already 2m shares traded at $1.025?
"With a healthy balance sheet, and expectations for strong cash flow
generation in the second half, we are in an excellent position to execute onour growth strategy through expanding our global footprint, investing in
digital platforms, leveraging operational excellence, and leading the
industry through sustainability and innovation."
Just starting to look into KMD.
Of course this type of global expansion can either greatly boost or greatly reduce profitability, depending on how well it is executed.
Any thoughts on the management and how skilled they are at such execution?
Maybe Alan Gray taking those 2 million shares this morning
However rest of market don’t seem too impressed with all the good things they put in their preso …maybe thinking just a lot of buzz words with no real substance …not quite a load of ****e but close to it
That rave should get share price moving up!
Overall market looking happier last hour or so
lets wait and see winner() + grinner() as market news often causes the SHAZ to buy and then ...
while this is an international stock now like HLG that is what is saving its SP from a downward trend...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OBGH5ZQLUOOGU/
Most of the NZX might be something to avoid... these guys arnt blaming themselves.... Its all your fault people...
Much respected and successful value investor Alan Gray still buying at bargain prices
Probably can’t believe their good fortune
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...824/392483.pdf
One day KMD and MHJ will be $1.50 per share.. both great international retailers and both good buying close to a buck
Pretty good figures.....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411610
KMD Brands continues strong sales growth in Q3
KMD Brands Limited (ASX/NZX: KMD, “KMD” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide the following trading update for the quarter ending 30 April 2023 (Q3 FY23):
• Sales growth across all brands continued in Q3 FY23
• Gross margin remained resilient through the quarter
• The key fourth quarter (“Q4”) winter trading period for Kathmandu, and Northern Hemisphere summer for Rip Curl and Oboz remains
TOTAL SALES GROWTH
Q3 FY23 3 months Feb 23 to Apr 23
Rip Curl 7.9%
Kathmandu 11.3%
Oboz 120.3%
Group 15.6%
YTD FY23 9 months Aug 22 to Apr 23
Rip Curl 15.0%
Kathmandu 36.0%
Oboz 122.7%
Group 27.7%
Commenting on the Q3 trading update, Group CEO & Managing Director Michael Daly said:
“We are pleased to report that Rip Curl, Kathmandu, and Oboz have achieved another quarter of year-on-year sales growth. We now begin our key Kathmandu winter and Northern Hemisphere summer trading periods. The Group is well positioned to benefit from the return of international travel and tourism and is continuing to invest in the long-term international expansion of our brands.”
This announcement has been authorised for release to NZX / ASX by the Board of Directors of KMD Brands Limited.
- ENDS -
Must say I'm not normally a customer of Kathmandu - but got given a "friends & family voucher" from someone who works there.
Was recently going through Ashburton (not the branch where my friend works at) and used the voucher. The staff there were outstanding, super friendly and made for a great experience. Big ups to them. :)
True ... and I suppose you are not just referring to the figures of the surfers in the investor presentation :) ;
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...610/394560.pdf
Some pretty cool pictures, even for people not interested in KMD's business, which is doing quite fine as well.
Nice update. My TA knowledge is limited but the chart is looking promising.
This is about to rocket
Well done holders
Alan Gray Group buying a few more....
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...916/396330.pdf
What does the TA gurus think of the chart? My knowledge is limited but from what I can see it’s trading in a range of sorts and all it needs is a positive announcement to break out? Or the reverse I guess
F23 going to be record breaking year ….that’s pretty good
Should give share price a much needed boost …even if only driven by relief things aren’t bad
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...604/398360.pdf
Markets are funny, aren't they? But yes, they probably noticed that while correct about the record, it still was some sort of downgrade of revenue (compared to the analyst expectations), and "underlying" EBITDA is a bit difficult to assess given that they don't tell us what's above the water :):
Still - they say margins are in line with last year, which means at least no deterioration on the earning side. Or does it? They said gross margins resilient, didn't they :confused:?
Retail.. all retail struggling
So KMD will do over a billion in sales and make maybe $39m. whats the point?
OK - admittedly the announcement is somewhat fuzzy, and yes, your numbers look right.
But first lets check with last years report to put it into perspective, shall we?
Last years Gross margin was 58.9%. This is not bad, and they say that the margin this year will be in line with that.
Their revenue last year was $980m, this year they predict $1100m. More than 10% growth, not too bad either.
Underlying EBITDA last year was $92m. This year they expect it in the vicinity of $105m ... $110m (i.e. growing inline or even a bit faster than revenue, which is good).
Last years EBITDA resulted in an underlying NPAT of $36.2m. Admittedly - we don't know about the extras, but for starters I would expect their NPAT this year slightly above $40m.
So yes, Net margins are thin ... but then, they are in retail - and at the end, what is the problem?
From an investors perspective - you can currently buy a 6 cent dividend (which they can afford to pay) for less than $1. Not too bad, isn't it? And at the end of the day, doesn't it make sense to buy retail shares while they are down (and still pay you a good dividend) instead of buying them when everybody is pushing them up?
You can see the damage to retail stocks a mile away.
Yes agree. Not too bad but i dont think KMD is cheap and i think it was priced to do a little better. I was expecting higher underlying ebitda.
So now looking at the chart it was looking okay for most of this year in what i can tell. Trading in a holding pattern waiting to see results. I am worried now its going to get into a downtrend with SP below 50 below 100 below 200.. and soon will be priced like the rest of the retailers i.e. p/e at or under 10 and double digit div yield.
I have sold this morning.