Sales exec of US.
Sales are everything arent they? The US is their largest market and largest potential market.
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Another healthy volume of sales today, all goes to strengthen foundation of the stock after steep rises. Recent upsets will soon be forgotten. Lake temperature rising....
It’s a bugger we have to wait a few weeks extra for quarterly updates now. Was always so exciting getting them on the 10th of the month following the quarter end now have to wait a month.
Probably something to do with reporting revenues and not just that ACMR thingie.
Anyone from here attending ASM today in Auckland??
A dramatic drop today, almost 6% at its lowest point. I wonder if some inside knowledge prompted this (not that I would ever suggest this kind of activity occurs)
This coud have something to do with it:
http://www.thenonprofittimes.com/new...ement-product/
Is this Blackbaud thing the elephant in the room that’s going to dampen Push’s growth?
No doubt Push knows a lot about Blackbaud and other potential competitors and have strategies to protect their market positions.
But Blackbaud are pretty big
Being one of 57 companies on Fortune’s Change the World list is pretty cool.
Blackbaud think Push not meeting the churches needs.
From their press release
“Current market offerings are not meeting the comprehensive needs of churches both large and small—and given the positive impact made by faith communities, Blackbaud intends to transform the status quo in partnership with the church community,” said Kevin Knight, president and general manager, Blackbaud Faith Solutions. “Our proven expertise in cloud software for social good, our commitment to listening to the market and our expert staff who come from the church space uniquely position us to provide church leaders with an unmatched experience that addresses all their unique needs and breaks the mold of typical church software solutions.”
I find this to be quite an interesting development.
I have always struggled with the idea that churches, the banishers of sin and self appointed bastions of righteousness, justice and truth, would accept a very commercial company like Pushpay. Church goers really could personify Pushpay as the biblical Jews on the steps of holy places, clipping the ticket.
This idea is in contrast of course to the reality of running a large organisation like a modern church and the convenience and efficiencies that a system like echurch provides.
I would caution that if Blackbaud can establish themselves as the organisation with more 'spiritual' or 'christian' credibility, and can provide a similar product, that they could seriously threaten the progress Pushpay has made.
I view this, in addition to the loss Eliot Crowther as a risk to the company that I am no longer willing to take in the short term and have therefore cashed out and banked in the reasonable gains that have been made in the last couple years.
I will be watching closely out of interest. Good luck to all holders, I hope that commercial interests and the delivery of a good product win over those of less tangible ideas.
Nah, not so sure about that. If you look at the PPH chart this year its bounced up and down on a regular basis.
Seeing as NZX don't report shorting or other related trades, we'll never know.
And Fridays bump is no different to the rest for this year.
Any effect of Blackbaud won't be known for couple months at least.
Blackbaud have been around since 1981 and currently have $800m in earnings. So when I see them say "“Current market offerings are not meeting the comprehensive needs of churches both large and small" so they are really looking in a mirror and having to describe their contribution to that state of affairs. They bought Microedge / FIMS a few years back to give them that additional step into faith based revenues.
I see the announcement as good news. It highlights how large this market is - and Blackbaud isnt covering the whole market. I see PushPay being the disruptor to this market - rather than Blackbaud taking that position. Blackbaud seem to be following PPH's lead - given PPH's current position in the faith based market.
I do not see churches as being fast movers. I dont see them changing from PPH to Blackbaud over night. Any effect Blackbaud have wont be seen for at least a year. I see PPH as still being the nimbler of the providers - whereas Blackbud appears to take some time to bring improvements to market. (and it seems theri revenue growth is due to acquisitions rather than improved products).
I also dont see Blackbaud as a "Spiritual" type company. After all they were originally established in one of the greatest dens of sin- New York back in 1981. Churches / Faiths wont be fooled by this veneer - they will spot a wolf in lambs clothing a mile away. And dont be fooled by this "spiritual" edge - faiths are one of the biggest hard nosed corporate entities out there - they are very successful with taking cash off those who can least afford it it. So they wont have any difficulty working with a provider who offers the best solutions for extracting the cash from the flock.
Clare Capital posted this link to some benchmark stuff
Push is Rare Earth stuff ....or going to be
https://benchmarks.openviewpartners.com
You have a 0.1% chance of reaching $100M in 5 years....that’s the odds Push have smashed
GS Buy rated (CL) on PPH.AX/PPH.NZ 12-month target A$5.40/NZ$5.80
Long as Push are doing a great job faith sector unlikely to risk their lifeblood
Business as usual
Bit of market weakness. Based on competitor announcement? Maybe just shaking out a few non-believers?
Look at the chart for 2018. Its been nothing shaking the woodies, btw 3.80-4.20. Large buying around the 4.00 mark has left it at that level. August-Sept updates will be key for a lot of them.
Lol going from a small start up in NZ to a $1b company is no laughing matter and if it was such an average product it never would of got the buy in it has.
I agree Afterpay has a far larger market and better product (which I pointed out a few months ago) but now Afterpay is valued at $3b so that's somewhat priced in. Afterpay is also better at communicating the benefits to retail in increased spend as a result of their service.
Imo Pushpay is going to have steady growth but I can't ever see it making serious cash that is worth the investment.
Wow, Ogg, sounds like a nasty break up! Hope the Milo helped, especially with whatever it was spiked with. Perhaps you sold this stock when you should have held? But in the meantime, it would be good to at least pepper your comments with some reasonable facts for your assertions.
Lots of good tech companies have a very simple product. Operating in a "niche of niche" is fine when that niche is worth billions in turnover. The founders shares I believe were well received by institutional investors. $10B by now? OK, sure, whatever you say. Not sure why I'm bothering to reply frankly but by all means dont buy this stock Ogg, sounds like you just need a wee lie down?
Ogg fwiw an acquaintance in the tech sector has similar views to you on Pushpay. He can't see any real growth for their technology either.
discl. don't know anything really about PPH and never hel
Basically they are a company that provides a tool to supposedly very simply make donations, pay for things and buy stuff. The "religious christian church donation" is just one space they can operate in. It might seem weird - but if you look at american churches that lot are all bonkers. So it makes perfect sense to provide a tool that makes it easier to extract the loot from the faithful.
As a holder, I am not too distracted by this "Faith Giving". I am more interested in the appeal of the product to market and the ability of the company to sell. And of course make a profit in the process. That PPH have sold to 13 of the top 20 churches and 54 of the top 100 churches tells me they have a product that does have market appeal and is saleable.
Don't think for a moment that selling to the top churches will be an "easy" sel. These church people are canny folk. So canny from time to time I ask myself should I be an ethical investor in which case if I was I couldn't hold PPH.
You dont need faith to be a PPH holder - look at the numbers for the story. There is oodles of potential there. If they fail to realise the potential then I'll no longer be a holder.
I've learned on my short time on this forum that what's written here is not necessarily correlated with what an individual might be doing on the markets.
I do share many same thoughts with Ogg on PPH. Since the management has been constantly adapting "creative" accounting method(s) when reporting their numbers and figures, this already gave me an unease. Then one of the co-founders departed and dumped ALL his shares, in addition to rowed back its planned listing in US. I decided to sell all my shares in 420. The management did not offer me the level of confidence that it used to be.
Sidenote: Afterpay do look more promising when compares to PPH, in particular in the growth aspect.
19 - 6 - 2018:
25 - 7- 2018:
Interesting change of mind in such a short time without news.
Just wondering what happened during this one month? In June you considered their latest result as "pretty good result" and one month later the company seems to be run by morons without any technical understanding ...
Look - I don't want to stand here as the defender of PPH ... and I am not. I do have a number of reservations (well documented on this thread) and am not holding.
However - its quite funny if a poster is doing a 180 degree flip flop without explanation - which could either point to insufficient research in the first place or alternatively to some hidden agenda.
Or is it just that you bought them too dear at the end of the uptrend and are now annoyed that your portfolio is moving backwards? If that's the case ... this is not the fault of the company!
Do you want to share with us what turned you from a supporter into a religious fighter against PPH?
BTW ... not sure about you, but I certainly would not use any application which tries to predict whether I want to donate or pay something and than does that for me ... as long as they use my money :D;
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/319574
[I]Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) is pleased to advise the bookbuild for Eliot Crowther’s NZ$100 million sell down has been successfully completed, with all shares held by Mr Crowther’s associated interests being sold, at the clearing price of NZ$4.04 per share. The book was oversubscribed with all bids subject to scaling.
The bookbuild was conducted by Deutsche Craigs Limited, as manager and underwriter. The bookbuild was well supported, attracting bids from 19 institutional investors across New Zealand, Australia and the US.
So, no - not just ma and pa retail investors.
Price is down a little over 10% of the book build benchmark.
I can only speculate on this fall. Perhaps its profit takers. perhaps its insiders with a whiff of the 1/4ly announcement due next week. Perhaps a reflection that overall market is also down a fair bit over the past month. Perhasp its shorters up to tricks.
Given the speculaiton I don't see the drop as a huge bear signal.
I'll wait for next weeks results before finger heads towards panic button.
Not sure about Afterpay ... though expect a hype bubble there (hopefully not followed by a BIG slump). Anyway - that's a discussion for a different thread.
Not sure either, whether the fundamentals for PPH changed in any way (they never looked good in my view) - but maybe it is now more investors who realize what fast dropping growth rates do to a growth based investment proposition.
Agree - the TA does not look good, though at least they are still above MA200 (but just ...).
As for Mom and pa investors ... in the last annual report did the 20 largest holders hold more than 78.5% of all shares. While some of them might be as well moms and /or pas, are these really mom and pa investors?
Attachment 9827
Hey Ogg, you given up on Comvita yet or still dabbling in them
I do not see how button apps could be old tech? You can have what ever tech you like behind a single button. It is not necessary to throw in the latest tech just because it is trending or perceived to be the future. I certainly would not want AI predicting when I want to donate? What if i did not want to donate that day? And I am pretty sure that button apps are pretty customer friendly, especially when it is well designed.
Ogg talked a huge game with CVT in recent months also only to sell out after making some gains before the anticipated drop in price.
This is no AfterPay or Affirm or LayBuy or PartPay or FuturePay or OxiPay or... get my gist.
I do resonate with your support of APT and their offering, however, don't try to claim they have an idea a 12 year old couldn't come up with... they are simply executing the idea that wasn't theirs extremely well.
Yes APT is doing well, so is everyone else in this space.
I am amazed at the number of investors on here that haven't even downloaded the app and used it to donate money themselves. Nothing like first hand research to show you the experience and many charities are on the app, not just churches.
I am working on the leading edge of the tech field and can tell you Ogg is right regarding the tech. It's old school and easy to replicate and replace. They now don't have first mover advantage. I suspect without a substantial upgrade of their platform their NASDAQ listing would have fallen flat as investors in the US are all about new tech. This move, their failure to move with the times and loss of their founder were big flags to me so I bailed too.
One aspect they should be investigating is how to use their data better - its ripe for graph database BI. But instead they seem to be more a sales company now more than anything else, selling an old /easily replaceable product in a fickle market.
Correct. They moved onto the Amazon Web Services already.
"Another speaker, Josh Robb, vice president of engineering at Pushpay, says the company moved its entire build pipeline to AWS." From https://www.cio.co.nz/article/620087...n-competition/
Wow. Have the NZX finally grown some teeth? https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321300
This stock has been bouncing around like rubber ball all year - just like ATM did and we know where that eventually ended up....
Neither are on my list of charities.
But it does highlight a problem for charities. If you do a search for "NZ" or "New Zealand" to find NZ related charities you wont bring up UNICEF. Customers need to think a bit more on how they set their end up. Or PPH should be giving them this advice
Where the App could get "smarter' is a search function so I could search charities near me. I might like to give to the local plunket group or Battered Wives Shelter, if they were registered.
You don't need to actually proceed and donate money to check out the app.
Ogg you are right, it’s totally fine to not try out technology first hand.
However if you are going to have opinions as strong as yours and express them so vocally, it would probably be good if you did have some first hand experience.
Regardless I enjoy your comments and treat them as if you are ‘red hatting’ the often very positive sentiments of PPH found on this forum. I treat yours (the negative) and others (the positive) with a grain of salt.
Really highlights the ol DYOR mantra
Religious congregations receive the largest share of American charitable giving. They received 32 percent of all charitable donations in 2016, according to the most recent estimates from Giving USA 2017. Giving to religion totaled $122.94 billion
A bit of short interest perhaps, but this is just ASX as of yesterday.
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=pph
Oh dear. A trade at $4.10. I smell another price enquiry on its way.
Slight bit of positive movement ahead of tomorrows announcement. Midday will be very telling.
Clare Capital have done some research on SaaS companies and found that this formula is pretty good -
EV/Revenue = 25 * (LTM Growth Rate%) + 1 ; with a margin of error of +/- 7.
Push $70m revenues and 100% growth would be on a multiple of 26 ......ie share price in excess of $9
Even if you used net sales (less card company cut) it would be way over $6
On the chart Clare showed plotting numerous global companies Push is a real outlier .....so so relatively cheap.
Some curious bids at/post closing; one being 8c above asking price. Makes you wonder how many people get to see tomorrows market update before us plebs do..
Will be interesting tomorrow. Stop-loss in place in case things don't go as hoped.
I think that there will be very good news in the announcement
If they hint at full year revenue of $115m to $120m for F19 wow that’ll set the market alight
Looking forward to it
Wouldn't this be just a mere 15 or 20% annual revenue growth? Hardly worthwhile mentioning compared with all these stellar numbers they used to throw around.
You are saying they are already consolidating? Would make it hard for them to ever earn their still stellar market cap.
F18 revenue was $70m so $120m would be more than solid
I'm not getting excited. There have been no market announcements suggesting a large variance.
Only guidance has been
“Pushpay is providing total revenue guidance of between US$20.5 million and US$22.0 million for the quarter ending 30 June 2018. Pushpay remains in a position to reach its target of breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar 2018.
They’ll get the $22m easy easy but hope they say something about the rest of the financial year
Not quite: "
Chris Heaslip, Pushpay's CEO and Co-founder said, "Pushpay is pleased to deliver a strong first quarter of the financial year, increasing total revenue to US$21.4 million, an increase of 52.6% on the previous corresponding period.
and "
"Pushpay remains in a position to reach its target of breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar year 2018."
All good ......might see share price $5 this month
And the new guidance "
Pushpay is providing total revenue guidance of between US$21.8 million and US$23.3 million for the quarter ending 30 September 2018." up 38.7 on previous corresponding quarter
Was it? 4-traders shows 98.3m sales for FY2018.
http://www.4-traders.com/PUSHPAY-HOL...90/financials/
Are they wrong or do you refer to some different number?
They seem to be delivering on their targets, all good. Steady as she goes....
I like goals and I like them in writing. Lets keep a record of this for reference:
"In the medium term, our goal is to reach the milestone of US$10 billion in Annualised Processing Volume, representing less than 10% of annual giving to religious organisations in the US. "In the long term, Pushpay is targeting over 50% of the medium and large church segments, an opportunity representing over US$1 billion in annual revenue."
Edit: I would like a definition of "medium term" and "long term". Anyone dialling in today might like to ask.
Latest tech sector performance in US (barring Facebook) should help the overall sector sentiment.
Disappointing market reaction :t_down:
Another promise failed by the director. They previously announced the company would be breakeven in Dec 17. Eight months passed, and still not breaking even. Don't think I will invest in PPH in the near future.
Disc. Sold out at $4.2
Today GS report on CL-buy TP NZ$5.80
Price drop ........... just a few buyers taking a divvy from a none divvy stock
Actually - hardly following them these days ... i.e. I was not trying to pull your leg ;), but yes - US$ 70m roughly NZ$ 100m, i.e. makes sense.
Looking at market reaction - looks like market not happy or maybe lost as well track of the currency; Time for PPH to define again a totally new and outrageously creative KPI? I guess - this strategy used to work for them a couple of years, why not building on it?
I do not know anything about these things, for all I know they sell candles.
Maybe someone could enlighten me on the following part of the report
increased its Customer base to 7,352, an increase of 3.1% over the
year to 30 June 2018. As at 30 June 2018, 14 of the top 20 and 55 of the top
100 largest churches in the US have chosen to partner with Pushpay
If nearly 75% of the top 20 churches and over half of the top 100 churches are already
customers then where else is there to go? Very impressive totals but must be nearly at saturation
point. Or am I missing something.
Great observation! Obviously - they still can (and probably will) increase the percentage of parishioners in each church to change their givings from e.g. throwing buttons onto the plate to proudly depressing the give button on the PushPay app.
As well - they hope for each parishioner to push more often and larger amounts ...
But yes ... not sure whether only the sky is the limit to this approach;); Personally - while giving to a church (don't ask ...), do I not feel that PushPay would solve any of my problems ;);
Ah yes - and then there are obviously all the other markets they have not yet embarked where people could allow them to clip the ticket as well: education (school donations), any other NGO's. Maybe push the money to the beggars in town? Who knows ...
It will take lots of pushes for them to earn their NZ$1b market cap ...
I was a believer in PushPay until I read this morning that they had only increased the customer base by 3.1% over the year to June 2018. This sent alarm bells ringing and was the last straw after the pulling of the NASDAQ listing and pushing back of break even date.
Funnily enough when I went to send through a sell order, my very recently updated stop loss had already been triggered and my entire holding sold at $4.02. Ended up making 39% on my investment so happy with that.
PPH is not the next XRO (like I thought it would be when I invested). Good luck to all holders.
Besides mini we don’t seem to have many cheerleaders on here
Everybody taken their profits and run?
I remain well in positive territory and still a wee way to go before stop loss is hit. I think I have another quarter left in this stock unless there is growth. Two things I want to hear: dates for the targets - until then they are not a goal. And expansion into countries other than US and expansion into other markets. If this doesnt happen then they have topped out and only one way to go.
I have had a ghastly July - all stocks substantially hit. Portfolio now sitting just above where it was in June. So I put this partly into whole of market sentiment. Not just PPH sentiment.
I'm still holding a small amount, I sold 30% @ 3.90 in lead up to results and 50% at 4.10. still holding the remainder and plan to do so for the next 1/4
I sold out of PPH completely last week. The technology has very little barrier to another company coming in. The only advantage they have/had is targetting churches - that is easily lost when competitors change their sales strategy. ie Paywave, Apple Pay and others...
I’ve been selling off and on since January ranging between 4.03-4.37. Still hold 15% of my original holding and likely to hold onto it for awhile to see how this plays out, despite being unimpressed with the latest numbers. Been a great run having bought most between 1.80-2.05. But really am struggling now to justify the current valuation.
I'm with you.....PPH was my biggest holding after ATM, but given the uncertainty this year, I've been reducing down to a zero holding (as of yesterday) and pocketed av gains of around 60%.
That said, I doubt it is all doom and gloom for PPH, there are some things to watch in the future that could see PPH change and grow well.
1.) I noted in the recent report that PPH is talking about "consolidating its branding around Push Pay," and diminishing its other brands such as 'e-church'.
2.) If you look at PPH's new web site you will note that PPH is clearly now targeting, schools and charities (as well as churches) 'send money in under 10 seconds, no queues, no forms, no hassles....'
In short, PPH appears to be moving away from its reliance on the faith sector and is concentrating on being a speedy no hassles payment option for churches, schools and charities. This will leave behind church only services such as https://get.tithe.ly
Will it all work? I don't know, there is a lot of competition in the 'payments' market. I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and watch for a while...... (now back to my holiday!!)
So, there is a considerable amount of bearish bias in the comments here within the past 24 hours.
If, the target market of religious giving is largely saturated, then it seems there are decisions to make - an expansion of the business, focussing on a new target market, or on new geographic locations?
- There are several large African countries, for which religion is a major factor - you would be surprised how advanced some of these countries are in terms of technology and banking also.
- Event "on the door" ticket purchases for mid-large scale events, another possibility?
It means money to be spent, but huge potential.
With the current position of the company needs to establish if this will turn profitable, or what changes need to be made to become profitable. With the majority of the market captivated or aware of the offering, I would suggest the company should be looking to profitability at this point.
I know less about the product than I would like to know, so if anyone would like to educate me or promote corrections on my notes I would welcome them.
Lowest price since last Christmas and nearly 20% of its highs ...things are getting serious
Maybe nobody believes the hype anymore
Still holding not sold/bought more.............
Congrats, as ever, to those who sold out at a profit, always a good thing. Personally Im hanging in there, I see no need to sell and especially at these discounted prices.
Ignoring one or two hysterically bearish comments here over last couple of days, I think the company has done extremely well to get to where it is, with the market share they now enjoy in US. Not an easy market, just ask Xero! I would like to know their ambition for other areas and markets for sure, but I highly doubt they will be sitting on their hands doing nothing, and while they are boosted by profitability they can really start pushing the boat out. I understand the short term gloom, (based on client growth rather than revenue I believe), but I'm not convinced enough has changed to warrant abandonment. It seems far better run than Diligent was, with a similarly replicatable product and I still made a killing there, and with far more stress! Brings tears to my eyes just remembering that stock. So, battle-hardened, I remain in.