Value ….Are you saying that in your eyes OCA was ‘worth’ $1.60 some 2.5 years ago …..and that’s it ‘worth more’ than $1.60 today.
What is your ‘own valuation’
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Tell him he's dreamin !
You think the company now is worth circa $2Bln? Wow.
My valuation is more like 99c & I was only using a 7% discount rate.
Anyhoo, if Balance is right and about 10% of the company is about to be sold off on the 29th, you are sweet. Just sit tight, wait and let the shares drop into Ma's loan money until it's all used up.
Hell under your reckoning you will be buying for about 20c in the dollar.
I passed on information I received from my broker contact in the interest of helping those contemplating buying or selling OCA - after checking against the volumes of stock sold when SKC, Chorus, ATM and SUM were exited last year from the MSCI index.
You plucked a number (1m shares) based upon the incorrect premise of how the MSCI index system works.
So I asked you to do some homework so you can learn - something which you apparently are incapable of?
So screw you - you stay ignorant and be blissful!
What float?
There is no float yet.
They have debt, quite a lot of debt.
Yes over time it's likely a surplus will start building and then they will likely return to paying it out in dividends, not just sit on it like an investment company and compounding it.
If you are banking on that in your valuation then you are making a very large assumption, or I would actually say a figment of SailorBoy's imagination.
One in the same, or father & son duo?
Anyway. Has anyone considered this price trend is simply the inverse of an index pop like TRA/HLG? Different dynamics, with this an exclusion, and if true an exclusion from the MSCI index not NZX50. But let's test out some logic.
Traders and instos become aware of the exclusion. They start selling down portions of their shares, swamping the retail buyside, in full anticipation the SP will fall. This situation further exacerbated by Ryman's profit warning. The actual index funds most likely not the sellers - they tend to operate in the final closing match and adjust session before exclusion.
The final closing match operates like a book build for the index funds needing to exit and same traders and instos that had been selling down. Lots of tranches at varying share prices for both the buy and sell side entered, big demand from the instos as a rare opportunity to buy a very large stake at artificially depressed prices, closing match algorithm closes at a price that produces in the highest volume sold.
The index exclusion selling pressure finishes. would have thought normal buy side returns and people start considering the price to NTA which is at incredibly low levels. Probably some profit taking after the first leg up and traders stag their shares. then mkt just does its thing.
Anyway - just wild musings. who knows?
The rumored 30m shares seems like an awful lot. For reference the TRA/HLG nzx50 inclusions were 2.5-3% of shares outstanding, 30m would be over 4%. but i've got no idea what is normal for MSCI index inclusions/exclusions & how shares are individually weighted.