That’s a very nasty slur Beagle. Shame on you. Do you know who’s running the campaign? Do you have some background knowledge of their actions or intentions?
If not then I suggest you keep you very unpleasant, toxic comments off this forum.
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Double post.
I will say this again after saying it over 12 months ago. AIR should drop into receivership, grab what it needed to operate critical air bridge for NZ high value export support. This way you can terminate the ridiculous employment handcuffs. Over time expand a dedicated freight operation and run limited long haul pax op. If you run the carbon numbers AIR should have to bid on carbon restricted pax routes. It is going to burn cash at an extraordinary rate going forward.
Effectively this is NZs biggest social welfare program , one that is paying some beneficiaries over $400,000 a year.
Great post, however - looking at the remuneration of the beneficiaries you forgot one order of magnitude.
Here are the top AIR salaries from last years remuneration report - and I copied only the numbers above $400,000 p.a.:
Attachment 12661
Top earner (not sure - was this Greg Foran, he started only early 2020?) weighed in at 4.4 million dollars per year! Great tax payer paid benefit ... could I have one of these as well?
Air NZ resumes Taiwan passenger service for first time since pandemic began
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...pandemic-began
B757 pilots working for the govt get between $70t to around $120t per annum. I can understand that some of the AIR pilots may have more experience. Maybe apply the nurses seniority bonus of $3t a year. A pilot after 20 years after hitting 120t could justify 180t salary so say 30 years into the career.
That seems like a good basis for a complete reset of AIR's bloated cost structure fueled by a widespread "entitlement culture" (my opinion based on a number of discussions with several senior AIR employees), within the company. Apply the same remuneration structure across engineering too. If people don't like it they can always try and get a job elsewhere.
It won't happen though because nobody is brave enough to make these tough calls...
I’m not sure how much pilots earn but I know it is a highly skilled position and requires years of training in flight school at great expense and then more years flying small aircraft before they have “made it”. I knew a pilot flying small aircraft doing in PNG to get the hours.
On top of that the hours/conditions are I imagine worse than a 9-5. I don’t mind them being well remunerated.
Cabin crew are definitely very poorly remunerated for the hours they do.
I’m a lot more sympathetic to the air crew than execs on $4m/year.
Government pay rates never seem to match those in the private sector. That's one reason why so many leave to pursue private sector opportunities.
On an international comparative basis, the $70-$120k bracket for a Capitan seems quite low for anything but short-haul domestic services. AC paid their long-haul Captains more than double that with half the experience (in years) indicated above.
Is an experienced Captain with even only 5 years experience really only worth $70k? L1 IT Helpdesk staff receive around $55k-$65k, and that's considered an entry level role. Some further perspective is given when comparing this to the minimum wage which sits at the equivalent to $41,600 PA based on a mere 40 hour week. Although the number of flying hours per week/month/year are highly regulated, pilots also spend a large amount of additional time dealing with administrative issues which will distort the average earnings considerably.
The $400k bracket is likely to be LH sector Captains of planes like the 777-200ER, 787 etc. along with the ground based schedule planners (one of my school friends does this for a living now having given up being a captain), and exec's.
Hahahaha. Airforce pilots flying about 200 hours a year. Bugger all experience and getting trained and experience on the job. Get real.
Some airline pilots doing 800-1000 hours a year.
Airforce pilots need extensive airline training if they switch.
Different world.
Jeeeez
Try getting a line pilot doing a combat approach. That I would like to see. I have flown with some airline pilots as my pax doing aerobatics, I am not ex airforce btw, and they close their eyes on the first move almost without fail. Don't confuse 70 hrs a month airline with flying. System operator yes flying not so much. Wait for the accident report from the crash at Ardmore on T/O a couple of montha ago. Might be an eye opener. Just saying.
My last comment on this because it’s off topic but Dassets, you’re out of line with you last couple of sentences.
Unworthy of this forum IMO.
Also, this was about salaries that AIR is paying staff. I just want to say in no way was I denigrating military pilots.
They are selected for excellence and perform difficult tasks.
You just can’t compare conditions, total workload, skill sets, experience etc. Chalk and cheese.
It surprises me, the comments on this thread that would like to see smaller pay packets for AIR employees.
Typical shareholder sentiment I guess and to be expected but there is training, hard work, patience, capital outlay, experience and ability, sitting in behind these highly qualified and correspondingly well paid, staff.
Dassets is currently #3 out of 360 in the annual sharesight share competition. Very impressive !
AIR faces "Turbulence" https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...QYS3AITARHKII/ paywalled
ExcerptQuote:
Jarden analyst Andrew Steele said the firm continued to forecast Air New Zealand will need to raise $1.2b of additional equity, "an amount which we no longer view as a conservative estimate." "We retain our sell rating, reflecting our view that given Air New Zealand's requirement for what will likely be a highly dilutive capital raise, material ongoing near-term losses and lack of comfort on the timing and trajectory of any earnings recovery, the shares present a negatively skewed risk/reward profile," he said.
Understand what you are saying Biker, however the last comments are only factual. I do know what I am talking about unfortunately. Also I am on the wrong side of 50, started flying at 15 and currently own and operate a Class 3 aircraft. Facts in my book are never out of line but can be very painful. That is what makes aviation(and military) the learning systems they are. I am very experienced in markets and also have extensive turnaround experience. All at wholesale level, broker through to fund manager. Situations like AIR are brutal and I find it is better to make the hard calls early. Others may have a different opinion and that is what makes markets.
On an international basis AIR pay their flight crew particularly modestly, and whilst NZ is a great place to live, the lion's share of their long haul crews earning large amounts live and Auckland which is rapidly soaring up the list of the worlds most expensive cities.
Comparing air force pilots and airline pilots is particularly ignorant. Whilst maybe not the top guns that Dassets expects, the 'skills' airline pilots are remunerated for are largely to do with decision making, risk management and whilst hopefully not tested the majority of the time they can have an outsized impact on the bottom line for shareholders, passengers and everyone else involved if they make a mis-step.
The risk profiles in the military are vastly different evidenced in a way by the proximity they regularly fly to terrain.
The general cost of training to have an airline ready pilot is not less than 6 figures (and in NZ 5+ years as an apprentice building the pre-requisite experience) and this is a cost that is not worn by the airline.
My point is a little missed. Your comments are fine in a situation normal. Problem is lack of revenue and losses. It doesn't matter how much training has been done, cost of living in a place, ability to safety go from a to b. If there is no money or it is provided as a handout by government aka subsidy which is potentially illegal under WTO then get paid like a RNZAF driver. Sort of like why professional sportsman get paid, not because they are amazing but because of the revenue generated. In AIR's case you cannot afford to pay the pilots what they are being paid nor the executives. The game is up. Also check out the pilots that worked for other airlines eg Cathay. All back here now with no income.
There is none so blind as those that will not see. Economic reality is lost on some people but the truth is the supply and demand situation for airline pilots and engineers worldwide has dramatically changed and is unlikely to go back to what it was for many many years. For anyone with both eyes wide open AIR is ostensibly un-investable with its current cost structure and foreseeable outlook. A reset is badly needed to reflect the true reality of the foreseeable future.
I do think a reset of salaries is appropriate as the company is being effectively underwritten by the Govt and those left working for AIR are in principle quasi public employees and therefore their salaries should be those commensurate with a state owned organization.
You seem to have done well Dassets. Good on you.
However, it’s not about you, it’s about what AIR pay their staff.
I agree, facts are never out of line, and the more the better.
However your obtuse, idle speculation about the outcome of an accident investigation is what’s out of line, and it has nothing in common with facts or relevance to this thread.
hmmmmm
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ins...ing-hard-times
Still a mystery to me why this is over $ 1.00.
DISC : Still short .
"We had a mistake early on about credits, we should have been right upfront about credits. I was too late to the party. I should have said right on day one: ‘Here’s the problem team, I can’t afford to give you your money back’ because that was the truth. An airline effectively runs on the fact that you pre-pay us.”
The shortage of suitably qualified pilots and some other staff was an ongoing problem for the worlds airlines prior to Covid and in some parts of the world it is already a problem again.
On a world wide basis some are talking about 2022 but others later for the manpower situation to be an inhibiting factor once more.
Any and every airline which believes it has a future should be planning now for this upcoming situation.
http://www.storytrender.com/wp-conte...03-768x488.jpg
Jazz Hands
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MR8Ym_H-80 Shareholders chasing profits in AIR shares.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/374587
Good stuff...making way for the Govt to appoint some fresh blood to the board.
Maybe Shane Jones and Hone Harawira ;)
They should start with the executives who are on way larger salaries. What is your beef with the pilots anyway? Sounds like you have something against them maybe because you weren’t good enough to get into an airline. They are actually extremely underpaid compared to pilot salaries overseas. And to fact check, Cathay has continued to pay all their pilots full salary all throughout the pandemic unlike AIR who cut 30% of their pilots and made those remaining take significant temporary paycuts or unlaid leave. Cathay Pacific itself hadn’t made any pilots redundant up until last month where they announced closures of a few overseas bases but with the option for the pilots to remain in the company if they relocate to Hong Kong, only those in the sister airline Cathay Dragon were let go.
Will be interesting to see what effect this article in todays Stuff has on AIR's SP action today/ by end of this week.
Might open a few eyes!
Has been the most extraordinary disconnect between SP & reality.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...ose-to-the-sun
Interesting article. So $660m just to repay PAYE and the Govt loan, another $450m to cover this year's losses and another $450m to cover anticipated FY22 losses = $1,560m.
The chances of another capital raise in due course cannot be overlooked as its highly likely that AIR will be losing serious money in FY23 and possibly FY24 as well.
I think to Dassets point, its fair to say that AIR has no prospect of making money in the foreseeable future and yet many executives continue on salaries of $1m plus and some pilots on $500K plus.
How many years does the taxpayer tolerate supporting AIR when senior staff are being so handsomely remunerated ? 2 more years, 3, indefinitely ?
Not clear if you mean the article appears to be a 'copy & paste' of the narrative on this thread, or we shouldn't 'copy & paste' links to newspaper articles on this thread?
Anyway the point intended was that this article in today's Stuff might spook a few investors this week & cause a bit of a collapse in the SP.
I see Rob Fyfe also commenting today that businesses should plan on borders being closed for 2 or 3 years & that even with high vaccination rates business travel will become more complex due to stringent health checks resulting in a reduction in business travel & necessitating adapting to new ways of doing business.
Can imagine companies weighing up risks of company executives travelling overseas being forced into lockdown due to an outbreak in that country & unable to return home.
Rob Fyfe opines https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...-rob-fyfe-says
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...6NGMFIOWYZG44/ Extremely dangerous new variant.
I can't help wondering how many new and even more dangerous variants will emerge in the years ahead. Will we still be battling dangerous new variants in the 2030's ?
What are the implications for travel ? Surely business's will try everything in their power to avoid the risk of sending their executives to physical meetings overseas and resort to digital meetings ?
What are the implications for demand for premium seats at the front end of the aircraft where most of the money is made ?
Do all AIR planes have black wings?
And if not, why not?
Black wings allow them to fly longer
Albatross
short again.
Attachment 12727
prepared to add higher.
Interesting article in the Herald today about the rise of the retail investor through platforms like Sharsies.
Where are they investing their money ?
Where Kiwis are investing:
The 10 most popular holdings by amount invested
1) Air New Zealand (NZX)
2) AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (US)
3) a2 Milk Company (NZX)
4) Tesla Inc (US)
5) Gamestop Corporation (US)
5) Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (NZX)
6) Smartshares NZ Top 50 Fund (NZX)
7) Smartshares US 500 Fund (NZX)
8) Mainfreight (NZX)
9) Meridian Energy (NZX)
Not targeting value anyway. At least MFT is on there. Of interest to me is will NZF and USF still be on there in 12 months now sharesies charges buy/sell fees on those now and investnow, smartshares etc don't.
Anyway back on topic it maybe explains the share price being so high.
Like most here I can't relate the SP to reality. Tough times for airlines (and Gamestop).
Struggling to do the capital raise my guess due to FMCA requirements on a cash issue. Which Director or member of the DD team wants to sign or take liability. Insurance does NOT cover costs defending criminal charges if that ever emerged btw. That is why anyone signing is exercising the upmost care.
Mr B on Variants. Would now be the time most variants emerge as the virus is at its peak or approaching it.
Cap Raise must be the hardest thing to get away now at anything like above a 1.20 give or take 60 cents.
Does anyone have any insight on the staffing implications and hence financial impacts? I.e. is AIR going to have to keep all transtasman staff on full pay during this 2 month period?
Long day at Rainbow's End with the grandkids...very tired dog.
Initial thoughts. Not surprised by the popping of the bubble. Greg Foran recently said AIR were in the (from memory) "Revive" phase. At the time I thought it was a very bold call, now its clear he's either playing "Charades" (would be if he said it now), or trying to put lipstick on a pig in terms of the pending capital raise, (which clearly was his intention at the time).
I called it months ago, its FAR FAR too early to invest in the reopening trade, be it airlines, hotels, cruise lines, tourism stocks or anything else related to reopening. Simply no mileage in going there, in my opinion. I think Covid variants are going to dog us for many years. The smart money is doubling down on retail that will benefit from record stay at home expenditure for the foreseeable future, probably many years.
Capital raise to be pushed back again or Govt underwritten...those would appear to be the two most logical scenario's. Probably under $1 when it happens. Maybe 2:1 at 75 cents ? (Would raise about $1,680m if fully underwritten less underwriting fees).
"Foran said affected Air New Zealand crew would be kept on and paid their base salary for the eight weeks."
That ought to increase that cash burn.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...-home-ceo-says
"Long day at Rainbow's End with the grandkids...very tired dog."
A more noble an occupation of ones time could not be found!
It appear the public will be farther encourage to see the country in the spring and some extra holiday pay would help with this.
RBNZ might need to start some money printing again.
Tourism stocks for flights are now a trade.
Oh they stopped that assuming the hot state of the economy cant support it.
Might also slow down the ridiculous ALPA demands for a 6 percent payrise for.the pilots, "hey it is in our contract". Maybe the pilots should get their medicals redone because it appears they are both blind and tone deaf. As I have said it is the country's most expensive social welfare scheme and about to get more so.
The addition of the unionist to the board well what can be said.
I also won't say what was said about a suggestion to waive the rise to allow some of the let go pilots back on.
BTW to the poster who said last time that I was probably jealous because I had a long harbored unfilfilled ambition to be an airline pilot, that was a strange and untrue comment.
when are we going to see some decent inflight offerings? flew the AKL-WLG sector recently and not impressed with what's on offer after 6pm
Update on Tasman impact to earnings and liquidity - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
Futher drawdowns on Govt loan coming.
Still no cap raise developments......??
Oh dear, this is a down grade :scared:, isn't it? Though - given that the losses increase one could call it as well an upgrade :t_up:
I recon somebody is playing chicken - and it will be the retail shareholders who will be asked to foot the bill. Dilution will be terrible.
$530M loss signaled.
Potential New investors stay grounded.
Existing investors must keep seatbelts on, much turbulence ahead!
If vacating seat, do not block the emergency Exits!
Cashflow positive they say
That’s good
True - and hey, lets not worry about the repayment of the deferred PAYE payments, shall we? I guess 2022 is still a long way away - lots of good things can happen until then :):
Oops - didn't government just let slip that vaccinations will now go into Q1 2022? No problem - people will buy the tickets even if they are still handcuffed to mother New Zealand, won't they?
A couple of questions for holders to consider....
1. What month, and year, will AIR raise equity? and
2. How much and at what price?
My guesses are March 2022 and $1b+ at 50 cents a share...right now I'd say they are basically insolvent without the Govt so as a taxpayer I'll be grumpy if the capital raise does not result in significant dilution of existing holders. Govt should go back to 80%+ and then rehabilitate the business over 3-5 years before reducing their stake again and making a solid gain for taxpayers.
Heard whispers they're still trying to get this capital raise done soon. So losses upgraded by another $80m... Hmmm
Don't think there has been anything since they announced September this year? Less than 2 months to complete.
Wasn't the CFO staying around until the capital raise is done??
Air New Zealand capital raise deferred - Media releases | Air New Zealand
Yeap, end of September is the target. Who knows if this gets pushed out again due to the dreadful current state of the business. They're going to need an awful lot of lipstick for this pig.
I am not sure how anyone with a straight face could claim this company is now in the "Revive" mode which is what Greg Foran suggested a little while back.
To be honest I am not sure how on earth they will try and "sell" the investment case to shareholders with this pending XXXXL capital raise but I would hope they don't resort to telling outright porky's and being deliberately deceptive.
“It’s much easier to stay out of trouble now than to get out of trouble later.” — Warren Buffett
But here is the gorilla in the chandelier shop. AIR has $1.1 billion of revenue in advance(current and long) as at end Dec 20. And YES the money already spent!! Guess what, that problem just gets bigger with the last bubble burst. Revenue for Aussi lock down now credit notes issued (including moi). When they come to be used no actual cash in the tin. However they still need to pay for fuel and the pilots' 6 percent proposed pay rise. Should give the pilots an IOU..... or better a UOM(you owe me). I reiterate re the cap raise.. who is going to sign that off. As a director I wouldn't.
Capital raise put off until next year
government not keen on one 'at this time' - wonder what that means?
At least Grant asked Dame Therese to convey his gratitude to the board and management for the good work they are doing
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...176/352094.pdf
The only thing that is 100% a fact is that the dominant shareholder has declined to contribute equity at this moment in time. Everything past that is speculation, but that is a stone cold fact.
There was a time when such a decision would have been viewed as a "key tell" by others and the shares would fall dramatically, but in this bizzaro world they'll probably go up.
Keep putting it off until either
they know they don't need it (well until the crisis) or
one minute to midnight.
Disc: Never invest in airlines.
Trade it and fade it...
Some time next year all those loans should be converted to equity giving the government at least 80% ownership and leave the other shareholders lamenting their losses.
Could even do a proper job and buy the leftovers at 10 cents to soften the blow for the current loyalists
well will they? adding the PAYE to the loan at zero interest. Will the major shareholder just keep making the company take out loans?
the longer they can string this out and hope the new plan to re open the border in a limited form by xmas gives them some hoped for options.
the options being pray they can kick this down the road again.
Kick the can of worries down the road...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:
Be back under $1 soon
The Govt know it isn't worth $1.47 per share so they don't want to provide capital at that valuation. They also know that they won't be popular with shareholders and others if they try to recapitalise at much lower price than the current share price so they are just waiting (and providing liquidity) until the market finally sees the writing on the wall and adjusts the market price to a more realistic level then the government can ride in on a white horse and save the day. Then they can sell back to public at a profit in a few years time
Sounds familiar. History "never" repeats ;) Rinse and repeat over and over as various catastrophes, misguided Ansett misadventures or future pandemics allow and every good year in between collect many, many hundreds of millions in PAYE, GST, taxes and dividends. Seems like a great scam, opps sorry, scheme. Why bother nationalizing it when they can repeatedly keep fleecing minority shareholders ?
"Kick the can of worries down the road...what could possibly go wrong"
"seems like a great scam, opps sorry, scheme."
thats the plan!!!!
The whole plan!!! You have it in a the palm of your hand for us all to ponder!
The SHAZ will get diluted and its a repeat of the last bail out....
You can plan your destressed asset strategy on that basis.
Hard not ton have a chuckle about the share price starting to go up today. It seems the sheep want to be shorn ;)
wow.... the news is stark, the price is stupid
discl
short.
"no rights issue for existing shareholders"
it was tough for the SHAZ but they must be trusting the govt after all they all voted for the PM and her band of bothers and sisters.
Its a long and wait and see if it becomes an inviting destressed asset.
They got shorn like sheep with many deep cuts to the skin. Whole new generation of investors lining up keenly at the woolshed who think the Govt have nice clean shears and will get a fair sharing, opps sorry shearing, and will treat them with kindness. After all Cindy says "Be Kind"...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:...meanwhile all those staff on $300,000+ keep on collecting their pay from a business that's going downhill at 500 knots.
I don't think it would be fair to blame the government in this case.
I can't remember any stock where the signs have been clearer and for a longer time at the wall than currently at AIR. No current shareholder can complain at cap raise time that they didn't get plenty of warning and that they didn't had a chance to get out at a good price.
This feels more like fully informed sheep pushing forward to be the first on the truck going to the meat works ... and I doubt sheep would be that dumb.
the cap raise might be split up. Govt and register go on different builds , institutional and then retail.
the longer the delays the govt can just hold out.
it as if they dont want to pay up at this price... either way the Shaz takes a hiding unless a miracle turns up..
a modified mRNA specially for delta but the wider gap increases immunity...
they are praying...just praying..for a 50 cent handle..
Possible Grant and Cindy conversation.
Grant - Look luv I've run this past every public relations and communications firm in town and there's simply no plausible way we can put enough lipsticks on this pig to make it look like it'll fly.
Cindy - I could loan you some of my lippy if you like ?
Grant - I couldn't do that to you, you need it to keep trying to tell everyone your vaccination program is a success
Cindy - Could we simply admit this thing is a mange infested flea ridden pig and try and con the public into backing it at 25 cents like last time ?
Grant - That's not a vote winner sweetie, doesn't fit with all that other B.S. you've been telling people about being kind. Current shareholders would feel like they're being sold down the river wouldn't they ?
Cindy - I thought the way we arm wrestled that Union rep onto the board that would fix all our problems ?
Grant - Problem is I'm reliably informed the Unions are the ones bleeding this pig dry.
Cindy - The staff are going to have to learn to sink or swim sooner or later aren't they ?
Grant - The problem is precious, we can't find any investment banking firm stupid enough to underwrite the cash issue, the company is such an absolute mess so maybe its more hard times for staff ?
Cindy - Could we float the whole darn thing on Sharsies ?
Grant - Plenty of gullible punters on there for sure love but I don't think many have really deep pockets.
Cindy - Shall we just keep kicking the can down the road and hope its the next Govt's problem ?
Grant - Excellent idea, lets do that, and in the meantime keep plugging them with usurious interest rates on their loan, what could possibly go wrong ?
Cindy - Nothing, and if it does lets just print some more money and it'll be all good.
Grant - Maybe if this thing turns into a complete train wreck we can nick it for cents on the dollar and all comrades will have a stake ?
Cindy - Another idea might be to flick it off to Iwi and call it a treaty settlement ?
Grant- Then Shane Jones and his mates can charge whatever they like for domestic fares and its not our problem !
Cindy - You're a genius, lets do this.
There are a lot of confused night cleaners down the HQ these days. These strange people from Corporate keep telling them "You are an officer and director now. Please sign this little book(Prospectus) for a $1m free payment into your account tonight......No one will sign that prospectus imo without titanium clad govt guarantees.
Also do the numbers NTA will be zero after the 21 result and 22 result. Should have gone into receivership Day 1, axe the employment contracts, the jet leases, the fuel contracts, the jet purchases, the real estate leases, any one want me to stop? And here you have the CEO saying he can see the light at the end of the tunnel every other month. I am sorry but the government's position on borders was pretty obvious. It was obvious outbreaks were going to occur. Yada Yada Yada. I do admit people posting here pretty much understand the issues except for one or two that I suspect were AIR pilots. And no I am still not bitter about not being a line pilot, thanks for asking. Have a great weekend. I might go flying and burn some fuel.
Disc: still short
Have no holdings whatsoever in AIR but the one comment I can make is history sure as heck does repeat. This was one of my very first share purchases as a teenager back in 1990 and as the years piled on years so did the pain until I finally ran screaming from the whole sh*tshow. Anyone buying in here needs their head read.
Disc. Still holding some bitterness from 20 odd years ago 🤣
"holding some bitterness from 20 odd years ago"
your a war zone hardened investor.
Doubt whether current shareholders need save up for a capital raise ....probably won't be invited to donate to the cause