All the ATM shorters (59m shares as st 9 December) are getting ready for a very Merry Christmas?
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The shorters will be milking it for all they can!
Theres nothing objective about vindictive trolling.
on another note
i don’t think this is exchange rate related as like others have said they could model that much faster. Perhaps changes to china brand health metrics they talked about?
If this is just an earnings downgrade then why halt till Monday?
The Synlait announcement sounds a little ominous, and it had fallen a decent amount, so it obviously not good news
Another QEX type situation?
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362113
Guidance Recorrecting . I guess.
Response to The a2 Milk Company trading halt
17/12/2020, 2:01 pm GENERAL
Synlait Milk Limited (Synlait) notes that The a2 Milk Company has entered into a trading halt having become aware of information which may require it to revise previously issued guidance to the market. The a2 Milk Company is a strategic customer of Synlait. Once an announcement is released by The a2 Milk Company, Synlait will assess this information, and the impact on its own company, and provide a further update to the market if necessary.
For more information about Synlait visit www.synlait.com or contact:
Hannah Lynch
Corporate Affairs Manager
P: +64 21 252 8990
E: hannah.lynch@synlait.com
How many million worth of stock would you need to steal from ATM to make this material?
Quite unlikely I would think ... but admittedly, I don't see anything else either which would require them to ask for two days on the slide rulers before they are able to size the loss (or gain ?).
Trading Halt is pending announcement from ATM till Monday morning maximum . But can be lifted as soon as ATM makes announcement today or tomorrow .
It doesn't mean trading will resume only on Monday morning ...maybe soon after announcement made today or early morning Friday ..
It seems news is bad ...why had to wait till almost 5.5 months done of HY ...just a month back at ASM they said guidance is still correct !!!!
Most likely some China political dynamics ...but that shud effect Fontera more too ...
Also how come KFL people got to know so that they cud reduce position just last week ...were selling around $ 14 ...very mysterious !!
Beagle and Couta have been mates for a while - they rib each other and if you read their comments, they may get heated but never vindictive and the comments are not grudge forming.
Don't attribute your own ill or hurt feelings to others when said feelings are not there.
Lower Guidance might lead to higher SP also.
November financial reports probably showed the ‘hoped for’ improvement didn’t happen.
So it’s back to basics and challenging /reviewing all internal forecasts taking into account updated knowledge on all drivers (input prices, selling prices, demand, forex etc etc etc ) and come up with a new forecast they can live with without being embarrassed in the future.
Been there, done that in the past
Tomm me old mate sometimes they end up with a higher forecast and you will be happy as .....but generally it ends in tears.
A serious question though, seems many have been convinced for months that downgrades come in 3’s , and with that being the case, if a downgrade is what eventuates, how much of that sentiment is already baked into the share price?
I guess it depends how much of a downgrade, it could remove a bit of the uncertainty that has existed from those who were convinced of a downgrade happening. Be good to get that out of the way and start moving forward.
Bad news is more likely but it could be good news too. And for some of us whose average cost is less than 4 bucks, it's not an issue at all :cool:
I always thought putting Babidge back in charge was a bad move and detrimental to the future of A2
Needed somebody with fresh eyes who could see where impending risks were and sort of be better prepared
At least he’s going soon ...Hearn needs to follow as well
After reading the ATM reasons for Halt letter to ASX ...it seems its not just continuous process ...they claim they have become aware of this new information which requires them to revise the guidance . They need time to process this new information and further information in the pipeline ( maybe ) . It has to be some new regulation which has suddenly become an issue which needs time to assess its impact on their sales etc ?
Simple downgrades dont require market Halt calculations for so long ....Seems more substantial then that . Fingers crossed ...it can still be positive news 1/5 chance ...:D
Hm.. Could it be some of the shipments are detected with covid-19 and they are investigating it and that is the reason they put on a Trade Halt for 3 days ???
I am expecting the market should be flooded and booked in all SELL by now. But it is not , only 1 person with a big volume ( maybe Options expires day for him).
Well some degree of bad news has been priced in (down from recent high), so it could surprise on the upside.
This isn't a simple downgrade - betcha they've found after reviewing the November reports what they had been really hoping to improve / come right hasn't eventuated. Betcha things have gone bad and they can't wait until the half year is up before they disclose how bad things are.
It's back to the drawing board and revising all forecasts with an open mind and come up with numbers that reflect reality ....not hope ... can't afford to get it wrong this time around.
Not unusual for trading halts to last a day or two in these circumstances.
I've been there and done that
[QUOTE=winner69;862928]This isn't a simple downgrade - betcha they've found after reviewing the November reports what they had been really hoping to improve / come right hasn't eventuated. Betcha things have gone bad and they can't wait until the half year is up before they disclose how bad things are.
It's back to the drawing board and revising all forecasts with an open mind and come up with numbers that reflect reality ....not hope ... can't afford to get it wrong this time around.
My point being that when last downgrade came 8:30 AM 28th Sept ...they didn't need Halt ...so why now ?
As then it was more of a sales issue which they could see happening ...they forecasted after 3 months gone . ASM was 4.5 months gone ...all ok was given . Now 5.5 months gone ...needs 3 days of calculations !!!
My 2C is that it involves some new development which was sudden and now they incorporating in their future calculations .
Still 5% chance of positive news ...lol
Ouch, seems like I really managed to buy at the top earlier this year, time to sell them as soon as the trading halt is lifted and take the hit as it's clear the problem is much more deeply rooted than just covid.
Good luck to the ATM holders out there.
[QUOTE=alokdhir;862935]The Sep announcement wasn’t really a downgrade ....it just quantified a rather vague outlook given in the full year results announcement ...like strong growth to $1.8b ...confirmed at ASM ..easy done
Things haven’t gone to plan ....things they hoped would not happen have .....so back to drawing board to come up with a realistic number they can achieve.
On the other hand, you might bail out on the bad news at the bottom, only for it to bounce back up a couple of bucks just after your trade goes through! Maybe it's better to sit tight, ride out the storm and use it as an opportunity DCA...options, options...requiring careful consideration.
The really interesting thing will be if this latest round of bad news, if that's what it's going to be, starts to spook some of the instos.
Thanks, at least my overall portfolio is still in the green this year, but yeah buying ATM is my worst investment decision this year by far, I must say the vaccine rally helped a lot in migrating the pain from ATM.
Only question is whether to sell on market open or wait for a dead cat bounce a few hours after opening.
@glasszon Wanting to sell before even digesting the information may suggest you could look at your reasons for buying this stock :)
How many people here will still be thinking its a quality company to Hold and give it more time to come back . Or its better to get out at first opportunity thinking its old days will never come back
I know it happens to all companies but some quality ones like FPH MFT types come back to scale new highs after 1-3 years while others just keep going further down and down .
So what we think about ATM ....Long term hold or sell and buy FPH to recover loss in next 2-5 years ??
Seems many here already know what the detail is in the yet to be released announcement. Already planning to sell when you don’t even know what the announcement will include. I’d suggest your probably best to sell out regardless of what the news is. Investing isn’t for you.
Didn't ASX already said it's due to an earning guidance downgrade? Happy to be proven wrong.
Biggest problem I have with ATM isn't about it's share performance, rather it is the share performance against the market portfolio. Most shares went up by 50%+ in the last 6 months, while ATM is going the other way. I know it's possible they will recover from this, but I don't want my capital to be tied down here when there are still plenty of opportunity from situation created by covid.
Just back from a liquid lunch with old mates.
Read through the last 9 pages of posts, and still now none the wiser.
And here I was hoping that they had discovered A2 was a cure for Covid 19......
More Beer!! ;)
Just to add to the nine pages of looking out at the horizon i suspect everyone is now glued to off shore horizons. More happening off shore in the auckland harbour prehaps..Except of course if you are over weight here. Might not be man on the moon but for little NZ its CLOSE. GDP wise it is a very impressive ratio to compete in such a big pond event.
Is this a record for speculating about the reason for a halt to trading?
:ohmy:
Maybe it's something bland like a board reshuffle hehe.
Lets start the competition ....The person whose reasons and updated guidance is closest to what company informs ...should be called ATM GEEK :p
Is this the next Freedom Foods? (FNP-ASX)
been mentioning the rise of local brands for quite some time
feihei is releasing a3 on the market , they want to warn you
A2 Milk trading halt sparks concerns about outlook
A2 Milk is heavily reliant on doing business in China, where channels account for 48 per cent of its total infant nutrition sales
https://www.afr.com/companies/manufa...0201217-p56ob2
To me , the Board and BG upgrade the guidance and they didn't believe them then they requires more informations to support the Company Upgrade Guidance.
Who wanna bet for a dinner at Mission bay in Auckland ?
Ogg, you missed off the youtube vid with Mr cage....
I think the will be a downgrade and the sp will fall like a lead balloon
Couple different articles point to a downgrade and an announcement tomorrow morning.
I could lie and say I'm in it long term and I don't care at this point but IT is annoying and frustrating to watch your money shrink or fear for the worst.
In the end, we have many opportunities to make money in life, but then again chasing money won't make you entirely happy either.
Best to take a deep breath and await the news.
Hi Ogg - I know you said this is a serious thread - but you don't think ATM is about to announce a takeover for SKT do you? ;)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...FCSEFEASU7RLQ/
Toyota warns of vehicle delivery delays following 'global logistics issues'
11 Dec, 2020 12:43 PM
Blackmores share price collapsing today
My expect is due to the global logistics problem and the tension with China which in term will halt the Chinese students to study in Australia , all of the mentioned will effect more sales in daigou chanel and global shipment chain. They will down grade the previous guidance .... Hold tight guys.... Very obvious and the Share Price has been reflecting on this since.
“We have become aware of information which may require us to release an announcement to revise our previously issued guidance to the market,” the company said in a statement to the Australian stock exchange.
“We are requesting a trading halt to provide us with additional time to properly consider the current information and to consider new information as it becomes available, and inform the market.”
......................After a very nice long lunch with a couple of really good mates and a few refreshments I reached the inescapable conclusion that some people cannot be helped and one has done a very good job of shooting himself in both feet, (despite years of me trying behind the scenes to get him to take a more reasoned, professional and prudent approach with his investing). In a nutshell, some people are their own worst enemy.
Back to ATM. As I see it four issues present.
1. The immediate downgrade and effect on earnings, likely to be material in my view.
2. Implications for FY22 growth rate, (if any) and beyond. Likely to be a material change.
3. What's a fair PE for a company that may be growing very slowly for the foreseeable future. Another material change coming.
4. The obviously skillful way these downgrades have been crafted to avoid the possibility of any successful action for insider trading is an addition overlay / Governance concern.
I foresee a material downgrade to earnings and future growth projections and a consequent material knock on effect to the multiple the market will attribute to ATM going forward.
I also have never seen such a long trading halt for what looks like a downgrade coming. Possible massive Geopolitical issue with the Chinese coming ? Dairy exports from Australia to be blocked or hit with a massive tariff that effectively blocks them ? Who knows, time will tell.
Synlait down 7.4% in just one day looks a bit ominous. I think Synlait could test multi year lows in the next few days. $4 on the cards I reckon.
On top of the above the $Kiwi at multi year high's will be a further headwind.
Potentially nasty if the revised guidance is not good. If so, TA suggests the GAP to $13 will immediately close with support below that at $12.20 and unfortunately no obvious supports below that until vaguely around $10 then the low Oct 2018 around $8.67.
Thoughts are with current holders, hoping this isn't a near term calamity, but for others looking for an entry or top up ... keep the powder dry until you see the whites of the eyes (might be a capitulation).
Multi day trading halts for guidance updates (usually big downgrades) are not that unusual
Aim to get some reality in the forecasts (ie do a thorough job instead of broad based assumptions / guesses) and robust enough so they don’t have to through the pain of further downgrades again.
But in saying that most don’t get it right and still have ‘hope’ built in....which doesn’t eventuate.
"the Hindenburg"
oh dear this is really almost more exciting than the sailing... but after this afternoons racing i cant see anything being more exciting for NZ over the summer..The Americas cup in NZ is surely one of the great new stories of 2020/2021 for NZ sport to be championed around the world. Lets hope on monday there is no Hindenburg... really chins up people.. chins up..
How many times have they blown it badly before?
So we know where things might be heading.
F20 Revenue $1.73m NPAT $385.8m
F21 Guidance at results announcement - we anticipate continued strong revenue growth ...EBITDA margin of 30%-31% etc etc
September guidance. H1 Revenue $725m to &775m (pcp $806m) but full year to be $1.8 billion and ebitda margin about 31%
Wonder what the latest guidance brings know where things might be heading
I’d say full year revenues less than $1.6b as poor sales continue through H2 and margin pressure reducing npat to less than $300m
Not going broke but way way below expectations.
Mr. B, I just confirmed the daigou A2 wholesale price of infant powder has collapsed by approximately 10% since Nov. Usually this is the busiest period of daigou business, the price was supposed to increase, according to previous experience. Karicare infant A2 range are half price lower against A2. Price war, very bad signal for the industry.
I’m with you Winner but a bit more bearish. I’m picking 700m H1, H2 700m. Fully year 1.4billion. That’s my 2c. I reckon everyone needs to get in their bets and we’ll swing a sweepstake. A tin of A2 to the closest updated guidance.
Maybe sales around 1.5 Billion and NPAT 300 million as they saved on lots of travelling and marketing costs this year ...lol
SP will eventually rest more on why this happened ? and less on this year numbers only ....If this is going to be difficult market ahead then SP will be hit harder and for longer .
BTW KFL will be hit badly too almost 5 cents of NAV will be shaved off with still 11.4% holding as per latest report . Wonder how they got this idea of selling 500,000 ATM just before the HALT ...very very interesting !!
Main question remains ...Quality Company to Hold or look to get out ??
Put the picture together and if flying lizard information is correct, we are looking at a multiple downgrade scenarios :
H1 F2021 - somewhat impacted
H2 F2021 - full impact
F2022 - full impact
The way that Synlait share price fell away sharply this afternoon suggests that news of whatever bedevils ATM is 'leaking' out to the well informed.
Bingo...I thought I was the only one thinking that. Put some pressure on margins and that could see eps back around the late 30's. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
That could have serious implications for the value with brokers currently expecting turnover of $1.8b, $2.2b and $2.5b for the near term years ahead.
PE could get rerated down into the late teens or at very best in my view the very early 20's as well as the market gradually takes on board the new reality of the situation and near term outlook.
Shareholders will no doubt be looking forward to some reassurance that the long term future growth story is unchanged, (and they will likely get some platitudes along those lines to help ease their pain) but increasingly some must be wondering what gives the directors such an assurance that's the case and if that really was that way why were insiders selling huge quantities to hapless investors in the ~ $21 price range just a few months ago ?
Could it be a takeover of synlait or another company, maybe overseas? ATM has been building alot of cash and could afford to take on more debt.