NZ market attracts international attention.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...threatens-boom
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NZ market attracts international attention.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...threatens-boom
European, (in particular) Asian and U.S. markets kicking on strongly. Ultra low interest rates seem to be having the desired effect in tandem with the benefits consumers are enjoying world-wide with low fuel prices. 7500 on the NZX50 by the end of the year looking increasingly likely IMO. 7500 wasn't on anyone's radar two months ago, who would have thought...
Good link thank you.
A couple of quotes I took note of.
“It’s swamped the market and it leaves them very vulnerable. We’re somewhat nervous.”
At the point the music stops, it’s a small door as well, so that tends to exaggerate moves on the way up and on the way down.”
I don't think I am a gloom merchant just because I think there are enough factors to cause concern. Yes I got rid of my shares of which a lot were buy and hold, I am dabbling in some quick turnovers and being prepared for a catalyst that could bite hard doesn't make me a pessimist, I think it makes me cautious and I sleep well at night so it makes me relaxed :)
This gloom merchant is still awake..:p:p:t_down:
Wall St is still in a bear tide (confirming Bear Market cycle state)..For 9 months I have said the market is probably in stage 1 Bear market cycle..since then nothing has changed to confirm its not...
Even with last night Wall St short term breakout the charts still look ugly..
NZX50 has been fantastic of late record high after record high, the NZX50 is one of the very few stock markets that is still in a Bull market Cycle..The OBV shows for the last 2 years available money has been pouring into the market..With this recent very strong rally we all have made a lot of money these last couple of months...
The not so good news..These last 3 weeks has seen many TA indicator negative divergences being created..these are warning signs that this present huge rally is losing momentum and running out of steam ...these market signs tend to tempt investors to take profits, a self-fueling human behavioural event
For the die hard optimistists.....Wall St had a good day so we should expect another record close for the NZX50 today...eh?
That was not specifically aimed at you BP--it was just a general impression because the low interest returns on Bank deposits vs shares get brought up alot,as do the ''glass half full vs empty'' and surly you have noticed that many who advise caution do get labelled gloomy pessimists and worry worts,
my point was that it is easy to be cautious and perhaps minimise share investing ,at the risk of losing profits ,and still go out and enjoy life.
Your ''choose your type'' post was a bit narrow on the choices though I thought-------''Choose your type: be considered as a "smart" pessimist (but probably constantly feeling miserable) - or do you prefer to be optimistic (and make money on the way)? I know which type I prefer, but there seem to be a lot of "smart" guys and gals around on this thread ...
Being perhaps cautious about the economy in general AT THIS STAGE doesnt imply that one is necessarily a pessimist in general,and of course these economic issues are but a small part of life.
I could be dead wrong,in which case I will lose a growth in profits and a change in the basics of the economies in general could also change me into a raging optimist.---Its ever changing
But having said that --I may have misinterpreted your post and was'nt directing the myths at you in particular anyway, so no offense intended
PS-my whole point (bank vs shares) was about the fact that risk was often deducted from the equation---there is indeed risk in everything,even the mattress,but to be fair one must assign what they think the general odds are for each particular risk and factor it into the particular ''mode'' you are in ,which is either going for growth and profits or preservation of capital.
100% probability of anything...yep we agree on that....(Whats a Blood Moon?):)
The article confirmed what I believed was happening (although I didn't think foreign ownership was that high) and adds further support to why I liquidated approximately 50% of my share portfolio over the past 3 weeks. I've missed out on some gains for sure but ultimately I favour preservation of capital vs. hanging on for a few extra gains and I want a pile of cash on standby should I need it.
Another factor that influenced me to adopt this position was hearing people at work talking about investing in the market for the first time to beat the low interest rates. If I hear anyone mention "Share Club" - then I'm all out (I remember the 80's well). Also, Kiwi Saver funds continue to receive large cash injections each week, which are no doubt fuelling the current bull run and contributing to some over-pricing. Sooner or later - Newtons Law will prevail and personally - I want to be in a strong cash position to maximise any investment opportunities when and if there are some material corrections to certain stocks.
Maybe I'm right - maybe I'm wrong - but that's how I intend to play my game for now.