nvidia tomorrow ... will it crash the AI rally opps i mean wall st rally ?
monster move forecast
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nvidia tomorrow ... will it crash the AI rally opps i mean wall st rally ?
monster move forecast
My biggest exposure to NVIDIA is my ownership of Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund - it's a whopping 6.6 per cent of it.
I would never buy the company personally and fully expect it to sh*t the bed tomorrow. Given that my investing instincts are always wrong, it might actually crush it (as the kids say) tomorrow.
I'm sort of hoping it underperforms. Maybe money will come out of technology and into my value tilt. Ive got cash to cover the next two years so no hurry. Just needs to happen before my next sell down.
Since 2008 the biggest crash happened after the Dot.Com crash. I forget to tell you tech sector is also can bring calamities to global markets if punters become panic. After period of rampant hype next is a burst. If we analyse throughout the history, we can get better idea about boom and bust. It’s relevant to many assets.
"In my previous reply I said: Two things which brought calamities to the financial system, asset markets and to the world economy :
Debt and Easy money.
History is repeating time to time in a different manner. I periodically do my rebalancing to face for those types of calamities. Some assets and stocks are in bubble territory now."
NVDA Q4 Expectations from 39 analysts.
revenue
'24 $20.6b '23 $6.05b +240%
ebitda
'24 $12.6b '23 NA
ebit
'24 $13.4b '23 $2.2b +502%
eps
'24 4.64 '23 0.88 +427%
While the whole world is waiting on the Nvidia result, I did a little exercise this morning which I like to do from time to time and that is to compare the NZX 50 Capital index with the major US indexes (Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ). Our market has been very disappointing over the last three years, notwithstanding the excellent results that some individual companies have produced in that time. The NZX50 Capital index is a better comparator to use for the US indexes as like the American ones it doesn't include the dividends received being reinvested back into the market. The NZX 50 Gross index which is commonly quoted by the media and others and that does include the dividends being reinvested is unusual in taking this approach and elevates the overall return that the market makes, perhaps giving an overly rosy impression.
I hope this works!
Attachment 14963
The results I think are quite telling. In the last three years, the Dow is up 48.39%, the S&P500, 78.16%, and the NSADAQ, 107.65%. The NZX50C on the other hand is up 8.37% over the same period. (The more rosy NZX50G is up 24.96%). The performance of the US markets over the last three years has been remarkable. Despite the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, inflation, high interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and the emergence of Cold War II with China and Russia, if you had invested money into a NASDAQ ETF fund three years ago and then went for a nice long holiday by the beach, you've doubled your money. As for the NZ market, probably the less said the better, but unquestionably a sign of the weakness in and stagnation of the NZ economy during that time. So clearly this is a sign that without exposure to the US market, investor returns for a New Zealander who confines their investing to the NZ sharemarket, returns are much diminished. Geographical diversification is still key.
This now then begs the question, will the US returns seen over the last three years be matched by the returns over the next three years? I'm not sure. You could argue, particularly in the tech space, that stock prices have gotten ahead of themselves, and that stocks are priced for perfection. Any major tech company that has an earnings report that disappoints could have a major flow-on effect on the whole market. I think the NASDAQ in particular is due for a correction, as is the S&P 500. So it will be an interesting watch in the months ahead.
For what its worth
"Goldman's 5,200 price target for the S&P 500 in 2024 is now among the highest on Wall Street, joining the ranks of Wall Street bulls including Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors and Oppenheimer Asset Management chief strategist John Stoltzfus, who both hold a similar year-end outlook"
https://www.livemint.com/market/stoc...303073912.html
When the actual data supports hype then it's no longer called hype ...so far NVDA living up to hype / expectations or even exceeding it as many people fail to recognise the worth of these companies ....AI is a real world changer ...and it will be in demand for times to come ...NVDA has many advantages over competitors for sometime ahead ....think apple with iPhones ...they are still cashing their advantages over many other players