https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/easy-money
"The upshot of my sea change thesis is simple:
The period from 1980 through 2021 was generally one of declining and/or ultra-low interest rates.
This had profound ramifications in many areas, including determining which investment strategies would be the winners and losers.
That changed in 2022, when the Fed was forced to begin raising interest rates to combat inflation.
We’re unlikely to go back to such easy money conditions, other than temporarily in response to recessions.
Therefore, the investment environment in the coming years will feature higher interest rates than those we saw in 2009-21. Different strategies will outperform in the period ahead, and thus a different asset allocation is called for.
Bullet points one through three above are statements of fact and not controvertible. Consequently, the conclusion – number five – depends exclusively on whether number four is correct. The question is simple: do you agree with it or don’t you? If you agree, we have a host of solutions to propose."