Thanks, LF.
I get the picture now - those are huge numbers of IF resales through Australia via the daigou channel for ATM.
No wonder the market is so concerned about any sort of ban or trade sanctions against Australian dairy exports.
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Been getting into this TA business of drawing lines everywhere.
Looks like an interesting area of support.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/12/9/australia-2
Things are only getting hotter
This kinda sums up the situation for me. Competing influences of...
* Product factors, is A2 milk really a 'thing' (and are the various markets prepared to pay a premium for it)
* Covid-factors, such as daigou 'choking' (never a huge, or reliable channel in its own right anyway)
* Geo-political factors, ie China really is taking Oz to task here to prove a point (will this come to affect ATM?)
* Economic factors (will ATM be able to continue as a premium 'growth' story as it expands in various markets, not just China)
* Investment factors, ie institutional v's retail investment (RobinHooders / Sharesies investors driving much of the present bull market)
* ASX shorting factors, which have been a huge influence to date, but historically/inevitably end in a momentous short squeeze (eg TSLA)
* Market factors, as Baa_Baa refers to above, including TA support levels (if you're into that kind of thing)
* Personal factors, such as balanced exposure, risk appetite, buy-and-hold v's ?, etc. You know, the usual stuff :)
Which is a heap to consider, but balances out for every individual: if/when to buy in, and at what price?
Personally, I'm in, and adding every time the sp drops below $14-ish, but this is a small part of my portfolio and balanced by other non-dairy, non-NZ, non-China, non-equity, non-whatever.
It's a risk/reward deal, like any other investment decision you make. ie you balance your risk v's the possible rewards.
Don't mean to sound preachy, but that's about it, as far as I can tell...
Which - obviously - invites comment on other factors I've missed..
:t_up:
I'll start, as I've just realised I missed...
* The China domestic market factor, where they REALLY ARE sold on premium imported infant formula v's domestic, after the 2008 melamine scandal.
I imagine if China does target dairy which I highly doubt they will they'll be selective and won't target companies with Chinese connections such as A2. It could actually be a positive for A2 but the market obviously doesn't agree.
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/ag...34d6dd6775443c
China not increasing tariff on Australian dairy despite having the right to double rates to 10%.