I'm looking forward to a mundane answer to the trading pattern today.
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I'm looking forward to a mundane answer to the trading pattern today.
MAC, I will have a guess and say that we might see a boing at the end of the day around 3c up tops. I believe that the synlait announcement was already discounted into the ATM price months ago. The market knows that the synlait announcement is positive for ATM so any announcement made by ATM tomorrow would need to be a lot more than that to move the price any higher than 3c. In fact we may even see a negative boing if no other positive news is added to the Synlait registration news. There may also not be any ATM announcement at all!
The only thing that is going to move the SP is positive news and projections on increased sales in UK and USA as well as China IMV.
I really couldn't say, happy to leave that sort of speculation to you traders, as a matter of idle interest though I do think it may well be a catalyst for a reversal, the SP is so absolutely and totally undervalued at 60c that any positive announcement at all, particularly one like this which initiated the dip in the first place, may well just end it also.
Still, either way ATM is an exceptionally good buy at this point, I've topped up recently and have never sold ATM shares, it's one of the better long term fundamental holds in the NZX IMO.
Disc: Have held for two years, happy to hold for another two and see out the 2016 plan
You misunderstood what I was telling you about HNZ. There was serious risk in the share at the time it was trading at 60c, because of the non core property portfolio. Much of this risk has since been sorted. You might say by the skill of management. I might say by the pure luck of having a much stronger property market nationally than anyone envisaged. The truth is probably in the middle. Given the risk was sorted and the share price jumped so much to $1 is proof of how big a risk really was when the share was trading at 60c.
Likewise with ATM I am pointing out what I see as obvious risks. ATM is only cheap because it is trading well down from its previous highs. On any fundamental analysis it is still hugely expensive, to the extent it is the most highly valued food share to ever trade on the NZX. Consequently there is enormous downside risk in the share price if things don't go to plan from here.
SNOOPY
Certainly the price target consensus of four professional analysts at 80c would disagree with you, as would Milford who have been buying heavily and probably the larger holders as we have not seen any really significant SSH's.
But you could be right and the rest of the world wrong, only time will tell, but do keep the habitual knocking going in the meantime if it gives you some sort of twisted thrill.
Don't be too hard on Snoopy MAC, its useful to test our own opinions with other views, we need contrary opinion on this site whether we agree or not!
personally I am not a trader, my guess on ATM price rises due to the synlait announcement was just testing my short term theory.
All views are fine Harrie, bullish or bearish, it’s an open forum on which to comment, such views on valuation without a supporting fundamental basis for discussion and scrutiny though, whether that be a fundamental DCF basis or some alternate means, amount only to an opportunity for individuals to vent on the internet or to unduly influence or scare newbies. It’s an open forum, all comments and view are fine if they don't breach the forum rules, equally though there are some views, particularly habitual ones, that may be fairly named and shamed as such.
Anyone know how many shares have been sold over the last 6 months?
If a large majority have been a single seller then you would have to expect that they are also a large holder in which case a disclosure notice would need to have been tabled.
There has been none that I can see other than a buy in by Mr Mair and his associated companies. Surely this must mean that shares are just being traded internally around the large nominee companies and those entities making up the nominee companies are simply trading amongst themselves.
I suspect that some of these entities are funds management groups who are getting close to breaching their mandates and need to get out quickly. The quicker that process needs to be the more they become price takers. On the other hand other groups within the same nominee group are happy to take these shares at a discounted price of course, hence the slow decline and stability around 60c which appears to be a price the seller can live with and the buyer can get great value out of.
lets hope that if this scenario is correct then the seller pulling the expoure to ATM back to within mandated guidelines is over soon.
If this was the case then the price has nothing to do with fundamentals which is why it is all very puzzling IMO to those who see enormous potential going forward.
This TV clip from Australia is a good example of why A2 milk is taking off across the ditch. A qualified nutritionist explains the science in simple terms and gets the message across really clearly. No need for A2MC to spend heaps on advertising.
http://tennesseansforrawmilk.com/214...as-today-show/