Well, that's a surprise, isn't it? Who would have thought that AIR might need more capital?
Printable View
possible opportunity at some date for future profits but the SHAS investor has surely kept this bird up in the AIR long past the date where it PL say its SP should be flying high.
SHAS investors perhaps thought the gates to the cloudy islands would be open by now.
There appears to be no innovative solutions coming from the Finance Minister and treasury even thought MR O indicated he would if given the power move beyond standard tools for asset purchases.
Capital raise imo nz govt loan converted to equity circa 900m, close to 900 m from the minorities. My guess 50 cents per share will be the price. Unfortunately huge dilution for shareholders who do not participate. Then the "prop up that isn't a prop up" aka public money used for cargo support will be withdrawn and the actual cash raises from minorities used. That will be gone by late next calendar year. Really this should have gone into receivership and the bones picked up by government rather than paying for the bloated exec and pilots.
No dividends look possible for imo 5 years min. Interesting to know cost of maint(variuos A thru D checks and crew re train)to get the birds back in the air, if ever.
Greg Foran the other day warned that things might not be back to pre Covid level's for a full decade !!
That's all the warning any reasonably intelligent investor should need so there's no need for me to be barking warnings when the CEO already has but in case anyone wants to know my opinion I see very, very little possibility of a profit in the foreseeable future and I foresee the likelihood of the vast majority of the capital about to be injected being eaten away in due course with losses as being almost certain. A prudent investor might like to ponder if the pending capital raise will be the only one or the first of several ?
More food for thought. Are people injecting capital shortly investors or are they ostensibly donating welfare payments to maintain critically important transport infrastructure ?
Around our virtual table ideas always span a decade...:sleep:
I recall MR B posting these ideas back the winter of 2020.
Several Cap raises were reflected on at the time. Without doing some modelling 50 cents might be a bit high.
the 777 need to be sold at a date in perhaps 2 years time.
Its a case of sell everything they dont need.
it a case of shareholders are now standing on the flight path and a large aircraft is about to land right on top of them.
Air's international air freight is doing extremely well at present.
AIR isn't really critical infrastructure. Plenty of competition out there.
Yes but has a 600m subsidy to do it. Take that away and each flight is a massive loser. Go look at the load factors. Horrifying.I bet they will start, if not already doing it reclassifying flights as pure cargo and this take out of load factor calls. Only prob is the planes are not cargo ac so fly well under MAUW.
The little Blue medal you get when you are jabbed might be the new gold medal.
Some commentators are says when the world travels again there wont be enough planes. Some cruise tours for 2023 are already booked out.
Sometimes the points plotted forward dont always go as forecast.
Maybe the demand in 2024/25 is so great you wont be able to book a flight let alone a cruise.
Share prices across the globe will rise long before profits hit the bottom lines.
Propped up by their major shareholder.
Covid 19 coronavirus: Government's air freight package ensures critical imports such as medicine continue - NZ Herald