most important for this stock is growth rate, will be slow down or ramp it up? We can still guessing until next result.
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most important for this stock is growth rate, will be slow down or ramp it up? We can still guessing until next result.
Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.
3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it.
Moving on...I do not like companies that depend for a vast amount of their revenue on sales into China especially in this very heightened geopolitical environment.
Who's to say that the Chinese communist party will play fair going forward ? Easy enough for them to issue an edict that all mothers must breast feed their babies as but one example of many things that could happen in the future. Nobody has a crystal clear crystal ball with which to predict the future so a wise man hedges his bets. This is especially important for anyone very close to their retirement years.
I can't believe this is still being discussed 50 pages later. It appears you may be more hung up on proving your investing methods are right, as opposed to "helping" anyone. For the same reason you are frustrated with Couta being closed to your point of view, I expect you are just as closed off to him trying to preach the opposite view when he tries to "help" you.
A real investor accepts that everyone has a different appetite for risk. A "real friend" accepts them even more.
Move on.
Kino Kuri sometimes finish up in the pot with the Puha.
That applies to a huge part of NZ's export market. However, with risk comes opportunity...
Markets pumping overnight due drop in uncertainty levels. Despite his election rhetoric (aimed at defusing Trump's attempt to make China an election issue), Biden is likely to calm the waters with China, so I see geopolitical tensions easing next year, hopefully.
"3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it."
I have stayed away from making the type of comment I am about to make, but it now really has to be said -
Beagle - Your comments clearly show you for what you are - an arrogant s.o.b. Couta has his way of investing and I make no comment on that. Each to their own. I have found some of Couta's comments to be quite well presented and useful, like many other contributor's comments. Your's I have a problem with - It is not for others on this forum to comment on others personal investing strategies by claiming that their way is best. It is even more arrogant of you to expect Couta to call you - Why would he ? I don't think you are the LGA that you clearly think you are, and who we should all turn to for advice to learn from, regardless of how many posts on this forum makes you think you are the Expert.
Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.
Fair enough that one of your models is showing that worst case outcome to be $ 10 ....I can live with that .ie $ 4 down from here ...makes my risk of investing or holding as further $ 4 erosion ...on best case outcome its SP reaching $ 23 in 9 months ...ie $ 9 upside ...so clearly risk/ reward favours holding or investing more
Secondly I had highlighted before too why I will be giving more weightage to the judgment of Fisher funds managers about ATM then your expert opinion here ( though I agree that u also have great market wisdom ) ...Fisher funds as a whole has about $ 1 billion invested in ATM in various funds of their ...so they get special access to management and their presentations etc ( not talking about insider info here but about better access to knowledge about what they doing and why ) and they do their own deep research in the field too as its their job not hobby
Fisher funds have superb past track record and they chose ATM to be their main investment after it passes many investment criteria STEEP ...
Thirdly in this frothy market where retail investors are setting new records of over paying ...eg buying BRM at 20% premium to NAV ..etc etc ...I see ATM offering good value as an high quality stock not at lofty levels .
We all know the reasons why its $ 14.50 and not $ 25 at present ...like FPH posted best results ever and still stock ended down as all already knew and asking what ahead after vaccine works ? Whats ahead of ATM will start getting attention soon and then no one is going to wait for it to show actual results or upgrade to us before it reaches $ 18 in a hurry :D
Let's all take a chill pill and recognize that Beagle and Couta1 are actually good friends and have been ribbing each other for quite a while.
Beagle has been receiving a bit of stick for his comments here but unlike some other posters, he does it in the spirit of articulating his views rather than admonishing Couta1.
I am sure Couta1 does not need anyone to stand up for him being the single minded and focused individual he obviously is.
Have a lovey day, everyone.
Copy of email received from former poster Moosie yesterday. Those who have only been here for 5 seconds should focus on making a series of really meaningful contributions before having the audacity to sit in moral judgment on those who have made thousands over the last decade.Quote:
Jeez, looks like the ATM "Hope and Prayer" group are missing their demigod Couta already. Never mind that he absolutely trashed anyone with an opposite opinion and slagged them off, adding screeds of useless pages on the thread, you get dragged through the coals for replying ONCE, nicely, succinctly and truthfully, to previous posts and explaining your position. What an absolute load of horses*** from those users and hypocritical as hell.
This is exactly why I quit ST, FP and HC over the years - people that only want to listen to the echo chamber answers always flood the thread and drown out reasoned discussion and facts. The internet really can be a cesspool at times - I find myself withdrawing from it and only allowing it to be a one-way street (ie. me taking in information, not adding anything).
Keep up the good work mate, there are people listening, but if you do give up one day, trust me, no one would blame you...
To me this thread is ostensibly New Zealand's version of the Tesla Cult. There is no room for objective debate. All people want to hear is positivity and therefore there is no point in me posting any further on this thread. I'm perfectly entitled to post negative rep for judgmental posts so nobody should be surprised that I have. Over and out from ATM.
Beagle: Lots of readers , especially myself, in this thread and the OCA thread, appreciate your comments and wisdom and insight of companies and the sharemarket. Dont stop because a couple of people say you should stop.
Cheers Trev
A lot of us would agree, the whole situation has just blown out of proportion. Sending private emails and criticizing someone is just shameful.
Beagle. Please do not stop posting on this thread. Your insights, research and experience are extremely valuable to lots of readers :)
I thought sharing alternate points of view, methodology and information was the reason for the forum? Not just looking for affirming ones opinion and having a whole lot of group think and reef fish.
Play the ball, not the man.
I second that. I am sure that beagle and couta are quite capable to sorting out their different views without the input of self appointed moral apostles ... and I enjoy and appreciate the contributions of both posters. Nothing I have seen here from any of them looked to me written in bad faith or malicious in any way.
People being humans tend to be subject to a number of biases .... and I think we all can learn a lot from (not just this) this thread how owning something changes the mind of the owner towards focusing more on the potential benefits of the object (or subject :) ) than on the risks. Good on couta on demonstrating this effect for everybody to learn and good on beagle to point out the risks of the all eggs into one basket strategy.
We need both of your inputs ... and I would like to see both of you coming back.
Exactly. Share facts about the companies we all invest in, and don't personally criticise the investing strategies of individuals. Each to their own, and each has a reason for doing what they do which they are not obligated to explain to anyone else. Or even try to. I have been investing for nearly 40 years and have been overweight in many stocks from time to time as part of MY strategy - which is no one else's business. And it has all worked out just fine. Just being a Johnny Come Lately contributor on this forum does not undo any of those investing achievements over 40 years. Maybe if I quickly post another 16,999 posts Beagle will consider me an Expert of equal standing. But I would suggest like all other things in life it is Quality not Quantity that counts. Except that Quantity in terms of $$ returns from investing is pretty much up there as well otherwise we all wouldn't be on this forum ! Onwards and upwards.
sw 2c worth..... come back couta1 and come back Beagle. I sit on both sides of fence and sometimes have 100% in one stock for a little while. We need both to come back. And while you are at it..... Bring back Buck....:t_up:
In terms of the argument with heavy weighting (in A2), it is simply because many here were earlier shareholders and bought sub $1. It has given some individuals tremendous gains and much increased wealth. I would expect some (like me) have sold down or been in & out, and not that it necessarily makes it right in terms of investment strategy, but would be free carry.
I can't blame anyone of viewing A2 with milk-coloured glasses. Past experiences help form further expectations.....
That is all very well, (not being critical !), but 'good friends' do not criticise each other on a public forum - they do it in private, probably in a fairly robust discussion. Criticising in public is just trying to win a popularity contest by seeking affirmation from the masses that one's own comments are the only correct ones.
I have it on good authority - Don't hold your breath about there being any phone calls between these two any time soon. Criticism cuts deep. Stick to discussing the companies we all invest in, their prospects and your interpretations of their announcements / financial information. Personally I think it would be great if Beagle and Couta1 returned to share their wisdom, but not to criticise and attack others investing strategies, or having to defend their own. I do not see that as being what this forum is all about - such behaviour just detracts from the value of the informative posts and creates a lot of 'noise' that we other readers have to wade through to get to the good bits !
my 2c worth,and I don't come on here often anymore.
Forgive and forget,lets move on.
Talk about ATM, way worth talking about. I do love this company but currently not a holder,but waiting for the turn.
Again trying to prove how right you are, because Moosie said so. The point still being, nobody cares how the next man chooses to invest their hard earned. And certainly nobody intends to try fix someone else because they have a different appetite for risk. FWIW I agree that 90% in one holding is far too exposed, but I don't intend to spend 50 pages spamming all the reasons why I am right and they are wrong in the middle of a thread about A2. And if a 'meaningful contribution ' is listing 6 points and having 4 of them talk about why Couta is wrong, then maybe I am doing this forum wrong but regardless of portfolio size or number of forum posts, crap behaviour should be called out.
Whether you see this or not, who knows. I see you have left the thread for the 8th time in the past 3 months... See you next week I guess
Yawn, battle of the egos.
Can we get back to talking about A2?
I don't follow UBS. They swing both ways going both short and long.
However, at some stage the shorters need to get out and maybe that is beginning to happen.
That said, I'm biased and this is just one day..... so let's wait for a new trend to get established before we get excited.
SP tried to make new low but failed ...sitting around 14.40 levels since 18th ASM ...now its trying to test its higher limits .
Seems 13.96 low of Nov 6th holding so far ...All good signs ...Coutta's target of $ 25 possible late next year if we dont make any new lows ...From TA point of view only !:t_up:
Possible reason for today's A2 SP gain is takeover of Lion Dairy in Aus by BEGA ( Better link here)
I have always found this forum to be insightful and a source of great information. Just like real life you have to pick and choose what is valuable and what is not. Everyone should be allowed an opinion (although there have been some perhaps who could have had less of one) and everyone has different situations.
I have been in the Coutts camp to a degree. I've admitted before that I have too much of a soft spot for my white gold. However if you were in the top 100 holders, which I very fortunately am, and had ridden A2 since buying your entire holding at 50c with a top up at 65c, you may view things in a different way. I sold 20,000 at around $2.50 to get a chunk of my original stake back, so my holding now averages far less than 50c per share. A2 grew from maybe 20% to over 90% of my portfolio over 5 years.
Did this give me the odd heart palpitation? Yes. Did I know I was in risky territory? Yes. But despite knowing that 'diversification' was the 'sound' strategy, I also read some wise words about 'letting your winners run'. If I had listened to the 'experts' I would not have a holding that will help me retire, or buy the biggest and most expensive house(s) I could have ever dreamed of.
I have 'lost' enough over the last two months that could buy a nice house anywhere except Auckland, but still have a holding that is up almost 2500% and will allow me to retire well or do whatever I want to. Am I annoyed right now? Yes. Should I have sold at $20 when her indoors suggested? Probably. Am I ruthless enough? No. Is hindsight wonderful? Yes.
I have been invested for the long term and whilst it has been tempting to cash out at times, I decided I knew of nothing else that would give me the return I was getting. I feel I've been luckier than I could ever dreamed of (I only ever dreamed of a 2-3 bagger) and it has been too hard to cut the tie. But I will when I want or need to!
A2 has always had risk. China has and always will be of some concern. But sometimes the greatest risks also deliver the greatest benefits and A2 is the epitome of that. Will our woke government 's latest gaffe be enough for China to pick on A2? Unlikely. Will China mandate breast feeding and kill baby formula? Hardly! Will Daigou's not come back in mass for another 12 months? Yep may happen.
The main reason for the latest large drop is that for the first time ever A2 delivered news that was not entirely positive. I've been through many swings of a $1-$2 gain or drop over a day or two on no news and good news. This is the largest for sure but long term they're still making a fortune and it is hard to argue this will not continue.
Yes my post numbers are not high - which will obviously annoy some. That is partly because a crash years ago lost all of my previous posts and I started from scratch again. It still wouldn't be a high number anyway though, because differently from real life, I only make a comment when I think I can add something. I don't post vexatiously just to get my post numbers up to look experienced. There are far more knowledgeable posters here than I, despite A2 being the stock I do know most about. I am happy to listen to all (well most anyway) and value them. It does seem that many posters here are more traders than investors, as a small jump or drop seems to mean an immediate buy or sell is justified. I could never have traded this stock and be in the position I am now.
Each to his own, but I thought compelled to share my story because of the antagonism going on lately. Coutts may be in a similar position and in my opinion, therefore justified in his view, even if he may have appeared a little emotional over it at times. Many of the posters I respect most (B, S, L) have noted judgement on Coutts, albeit more constructively, but I feel some experts here just want to get their numbers up and love the thrill of keyboard warrior-ing!
But for me, those who bag him just may have have different views if you were in a similar position. I'm happy to call it lucky......
Hear ,hear
Great post TED 2
There are the sayings
1)Let your good ones run
2)If you are going to sell something, sell the underperformers
3)Utilize the benefit of compounding returns
A 7% higher compounding return over a long time really does add up to a significant amount.
To give you an idea if your strategy is working out for you
Compare your returns to the superfund (around 10% compounding since inception)and work out how much more you have succeeded or not.
https://www.nzsuperfund.nz/performan...nthly-returns/
Nice post TED2. While I did not get in quite as early as you did, I have followed a similar course.
Yes good post Ted2 - should stayed in a long time ago but needed the funds at the time, then it is almost like a MFT and FPH - seems too expensive, but just keeps going up
Great post Ted, thanks for sharing and well done! Mine’s a similar story but not quite as spectacular. ATM still over 50% of my portfolio. Sold a chunk 3 years ago and retired, can’t bring myself to part with any more. Future’s too bright.
It’s depend when you bought the share, image the ppl who bought last year, they all underwater now. and maybe different tide this time.
Of course, but don't forget that even the current long term holders were underwater at times. But they held.... and are now much wealthier.
Those that are underwater now, just have to be patient. This company will continue to outperform NZX 50 and the SP will rise above $20. Just a question of time.
JMHO - and yes I'm biased so take responsibility for your own decisions.
Yes, a great post TED2. My nomination for Post of the Year!
:)
This stock works like clock work. Gaps up at open and gradually sells off over the day
Great post Ted2. And yes, you don't need to have many thousands of posts to get your very good message across.
I am in the same very fortunate position as you, only my winner was XRO, which I bought for an average of 92c in 2007 and still hold a sizeable $$ holding in to this day in spite of many share price fluctuations, heart palpitations, pressure from 'her indoors' (a Chartered Accountant no less) to sell, and every other emotion you listed. And my new, soon to be built house is going to be fabulous ! Your point about letting winners run is spot on, although I did need some reassuring words in a phone call to Rod Drury to hang in there when the SP dropped from $45 to $12 a few years ago when XRO was over 90% of my portfolio. I made the situation worse by even buying more at about A$22 on the way back up ! Eventually the over-weighting got too high and I sold a few off to diversify and reap a little dividend income. All those stocks except CVT are in the black right now, including sizeable holdings in PPH and HLG. So if you believe in a stock, let it run. As a financial accountant type person XRO (to me) was a no-brainer. I believe ATM is also a no-brainer and liken this dip to the occasional one experienced by XRO over recent years - heck - they even went to $135 and down to $126 in a day this week - but today back to $134. It's a roller-coaster. Each to their own, and do what you have to do. If you can tolerate the lumpy bits then go for it and you may be handsomely rewarded.
So I reiterate the point I have made recently that it is not for posters to criticise others investing strategies. If I had listened to them over the last 13 years I would have sold out of XRO at $5 and be kicking myself black and blue every living day since. Do what YOU believe in and don't be swayed by others. Ultimately you only have yourself to answer to.
I am definitely one in the investor camp. The short term trading and day trading does not interest me. It consumes a lot of time and analysis, self flagellation and questioning when things go awry. The XRO experience has taught me that there is more than one way to skin a cat (apologies to fellow cat lovers out there for the analogy), and one's time can be spent profitably elsewhere while your winner is running on without needing to be watched 24/7
I have found it incredibly valuable reading and following the constructive and positive posts on this forum. Some of the analytical stuff is beyond me but a good read anyway for a balanced viewpoint. The emotions of contributors are just as important, because as much as the head screams "SELL", the heart and emotional attachment is always there countering with "WELL MAYBE NOT - YET". Just one of those Maybe Not Yet's has to be a big winner and it can completely outweigh all the "Sell Too Early's". I'm a firm believer that there is at least one multi-bagger out there for everyone, whether you find it by good luck or design is irrelevant.
Keep up the good work Ted, your contribution was perfectly balanced and demonstrated most of what all of us go through in our stock selections and 'maintenance' decisions
Come on guys, move on!
Can someone explain how this index rebalancing works ...as today FPH big up on huge volumes . Not all heavy weights were up though SPK , RYM and FBU were down too on big volumes .
Just want to understand why some stocks up while some down on this rebalancing day and what it means going forward for up stocks and down stock ...trying to make sense of how and why of these days .
ATM also had huge volumes in the last 15 minutes ...positive volumes as they made SP come back to normal range !!
Yes. Not everyone is going to like you on a public forum - Vince.
Some people don't like the dog's barking so for the sake of everyone else's enjoyment of a clean forum please, you are most welcome indeed to add me to your ignore list.
Click on settings at the top of the page, and then half way down the menu bar on the left you will see the option to edit your ignore list. I am finding this ignore function a very useful tool myself at present.
a2m clinging desparately to support around current levels. im picking a big woosh down if it doesnt hold.
shorts continue to build.
Far-be-it for me to comment on the recent shenanigans, but some of the responses on this thread are a bit bitchy... if I may, perhaps it is best to re-read something before assigning a "tone" to it, such that you take all subjectivity away from what someone has written. Remember, you cannot "hear" what someone has written down, and it pays not to.
...unless you all happen to be females...then I can kinda understand what's going on...
Its all good if my message came across wrong. I am though just simply stating in a kind manner its time to move on. Its not very good for anyones mindset to come on this forum and read the prolonged argument about who is right and who is wrong.
I merely only come here to read the reasons for and against myself making some money in this stock.
Perfect example is Bulls message today is he right or is he wrong? Can we have a discussion about why he may be or why he may not be correct that the stock is about to be shorted again.
Shorts are building up to yet another high - 60m shares shorted as of a week ago.
A lot of nervousness in Oz about where the Chinese are going to strike against Australia next on the trade front - iron ore, timber, meat, wine - could dairy be next?
ASX Wine stocks were hammered down by 20% last week.
That is the long and short of sp driver for today imo.
Hi Lemon, yes nice to be moving on.... and in that context, here are my thoughts on recent shorting of ATM.
1.) Below chart shows Shorts aren't increasing as Bull say's, but have seemingly levelled off just below 8%... but for how long who knows. See point 2 below also.
Attachment 12123
2.) As ATM is now increasingly held by institutions (est around 87%) we need to appreciate that a large part of the shorting may well be the same institutions 'hedging' their holdings to offset perceived risks such as the Geopolitical risk between China and Aus/NZ. This is quite different from speculators 'shorting.'
3.) I believe the key risks facing ATM at the moment are not the changing diagou channels, but are a reflection of the China/Aus tensions (and yes I appreciate ATM's A2 IF comes from NZ.), plus the unknown of a new CEO taking over (which may also be a risky time.)
4.) So of course there are risks with ATM as there are with any shares. What tomorrows SP may be is anyone's guess, but I'm more inclined to Snow Leopard's thinking as per post #18259 and my off stated belief that ATM will return to outperforming the NZX50 index in 2021. However my risk profile is much different from a new ATM investor, so as always DYOR.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...?ocid=msedgdhp
This looks extremely ugly with the potential to have even more serious trade implications going forward.
New documents of virus numbers in china early stage looks like it may give some push back to help the aussi position..
ATM chart looks very nice here. If support fails here it all the way back to under 12 im afraid.
With so much positive impact on Dairy products from NZ and even a 2% rise in demand for dairy products from China, some reports reckon if all exports take a hit from this trade war here in NZ, then NZ dairy will be the last to feel the burn. So is it just the impact of Australia's trade war and the ripple over the ASX causing A2 to fall?
It's always a positive impact on the NZX in the morning but the moment the ASX opens it's pinned down again.
Then the signing of the ASEAN trade agreement from China on the 5th of nov? you would think that would help with the situation instead Australia and China are still at each other.
How much longer can they keep it up and will either one feel the burn more than others.
Some reckon Australia will prevail others think China doesn't need us.
There is also the point of A2s strong links with China's dairy industries you would think that would help A2 to position itself over the next few months to outperform other dairy products from say Australia's dairy industries who are taking a hard hit? As MR slothbear points out earlier
collateral damage...fund manager wont pick through the orchard...
Bad enough that the Ossies are claiming the NZ Pavlova and some NZ movie stars as theirs ... isn't A2 Milk a New
Zealand company as well? Time to tell at least the Chinese, i recon.
Though I agree that NZ is walking currently as well a fine line between annoying the other four eyes and annoying one of our most important customers.
Other viewpoints to counter such pessimistic journalism, and more applicable to ATM are;
China and it's 'political' corporates are deeply embedded in the A2 manufacture and distribution via exclusive Chinese distribution rights for A2 and major share holdings/investments in SML and Mataura Valley Milk. Any Chinese penalties on NZ A2 IF or diary will hurt these highly leveraged Chinese companies and we should not ignore the anger of many Chinese moms and babies that prefer A2.
Any Chinese penalties on Australian A2 sourced products on their own could actually strengthen NZ sourced A2 IF as Slothbear points out in his/her last sentence.
And then there is the growing A2 markets in other Asian countries that is expanding to offset China's risks.
Lastly we can assume that Biden's administration will support Aus and NZ trade rights more strongly than Trump and China's trade powers may well have peaked.
The UN's Trade dispute role will also be strengthened in the years ahead after having been hamstrung by Trump's refusal to appoint key people to support this. Also A2's progress in USA will be assisted by a more open Biden administration.
JMHO. DYOR.
CCP doesnt care about anything ... that includes corporate defaults..
they will crush ATM as collateral damage if anything NZ does gets in the way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D084N4cxkNQ
Hong Kong CEO doesnt even have access to a bank account at the moment. You think the CCP care about some diary investments?
Bond defaults were broadcast 2 years ago and here they are..
CCP doesnt know what a bond default means... they dont care.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...cc465d23e35010
Boycott China products this Christmas - guess there will be no decorated Christmas trees, toys under the tree and no summer wear on 25th Dec?
What a tubful of smelly rotten rhubarb.
Oz must learn to pick its fight and hurt the Chinese where it matters.
Ardern sides with Australia in China spat
New Zealand has intervened in the escalating diplomatic row between Australia and China, raising concerns over a doctored image shared by a senior Chinese official on Twitter
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...?ocid=msedgdhp
Not quite sure what the robot video is supposed to prove? Has clearly nothing to do with your broad smear against China supported by no facts at all. Making up your own facts?
Now - it is true that China is a dictatorship run by the so called communist party headed by the strong man Xi. It is true as well that China is neither particularly good in observing and protecting human rights be it in their own population or in the areas they consider as part of their country (despite having occupied them, often with military force). They are as well not known for an independent or unbiased judicial system - the courts tend to do whatever the party tells them to.
Occasionally they break international treaties if they consider them not in their best interest ... and yes, they do use economic sanctions for political blackmail (though less often than the US does :) ).
Having said that - much of above could be said as well about the US under Trump. He cares a sh*t about the human rights of refugees, of the ordinary Iranean people or of anybody living in countries he calls sh*tholes. He works hard to nullify the result of democratic elections in his own country and he worked as well hard to undermine the legal system in his country, to name just some examples.
The US under Trump did break plenty of international treaties as it pleased the strongman ... and yes, they did love under him to apply economic sanctions for political blackmail - or just to please the ego of the strongman.
I don't want to turn this into a political discussion and sure, the US system does not (yet) allow all the excesses the Chinese system does - but in principle is China not behaving much different than some of our so called Western friends, just less erratic. You could even say the Chinese did learn from America that it is ok to misbehave on the international stage as long as they are stronger than the opponent (and they normally are).
Having said that - China did attack in the last hundred years significantly less foreign countries than the US did. Actually, not sure they attacked even one (edit: they did, Tibet in 1949, but they would say that this was always their territory), while the US attacked and interfered with a long list of countries (including China and its neighbors Korea and Vietnam ;):
I am pretty sure that China did break during its long history less international agreements than the US broke only during the last four years ... and looking at their way to do business - the Chinese actually do prefer to create long term win-win relationships while the US under Trump was just keen on zero sum deals (US wins, the other side loses).
Sure - it is clearly not wise to annoy the tiger without a good reason (and escape plan :) - but broadcasting baseless smears against China is certainly neither appropriate nor helpful.
not smearing anything... robot looks good at crushing... Ant under foot... NZ is the ANT!
making up facts? defaults on bonds were signalled to the market 2 years ago. the warning we made often.
The bond defaults are here now and getting bigger. Those default signal that the bank of china was instructed not to step in and pay them out.
No bond defaults? Pardon? Information on the likely default not broadcast loudly 2 years ago? They were heard on trading floors around the globe.
There are no smears when its a fact the bond market defaults were made public years ago on every major business channel. I did happen to have access to the trading floors in hong Kong until recently and everyone knew the defaults were coming.
many people dont like the facts because will hurt there positions. well thats a market.
thanks balance i agree, and i hope it doesnt happen. We like this stock and the lower it goes on no news the more you can profit from it.
Other than that i like the post and i agree with black peter but CCP are far more sinister than we realise and Hong Kong shows us they dont care about your capital.
Hong Kong officials shut out of the global banking system.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/30/b...hnk/index.html
My friends on the trading floors of Hong Kong are all leaving , back to europe and australia. There is fear in the air..
lol couta come back i miss you talking crap to me
your friend Mr C is indeed here balance and sent me one of those silly notifications. I always consider those notifications to be pointless as i have only stated the facts.
The shorters are allowed to short and we never short. Time should correct this falling knife. The market can be brutal but my post is NOT a down ramping post. Look at the charts , anyone who bought recently above 16 was brave. But in the end its ones view against another.
If you think someones view is wrong then say so in public .
couta is back and sending notes behind the scenes. How much geo risk does there have to be before we express a view on this exposed stock.
Aussi sanctions as of today are hitting hard and fast, and those are the facts and its hitting the aussi dollar.
The geo risk and the aussi exports dollars at risk are being discussed every day on CNBC at 12 AM .
Chinese media threatens 'evil' Australia's warships in South China Sea
One of the Communist Party's chief mouthpieces has branded Australia "evil" and warned warships carrying out patrols in the South China Sea are at risk of being attacked.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal...0201201-p56jfb
balance your scaring the locals... :D ... :ohmy: if your in this stock big then you should have a hedge..
Well done for adding balance , balance. We never send notifications behind the scenes.
ATM is potentially damaged from world politics or benefits from it. No global business operates in a political vacuum.
We think it was a 1 to 1 relationship. Actions of the CCP are directly related to the banking sanctions.
Sorry but you lost me!
I thought it is fairly obvious why the Oz market is rather nervous about any stock exposed to potential China retaliation?
I have an Australian friend managing a Western hotel in Shanghai and he reckons their Penfolds Grange wine cellar has become even more prized overnight. Ozzie wine is now completely priced out of that market and he fears worse is to come on other fronts for Ozzie exporters.
sorry balance. very badly worded on my part.
Great post. Yes very obvious.
These types of media coverage doesn’t help A2 even though it can claim it’s a NZ company.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ja...01-p56jgj.html
I would not just pick on Beagle, you will find a lot more fun and games on a thread like this one given the numbers so heavily invested. A number here are playing games and the level of PMs is certainly on the up. It just the way it is, I observe more these days as the agendas are clear and intrenched. Good to highlight again for the relatively new here...this thread need to find it shape again.
Food processor and A2 milk competitor in Australia, Freedom Foods under investigation after alleged accounting scandals. See story here.
"Freedom reported, in October last year, that it earned a full-year profit of $11.6 million. But that figure has now been "restated" as a $145.8 million loss.
The cereal business also confessed its losses had since widened to $174.5 million in the last financial year (ending June 30, 2020)."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...t-decline.html
2 Milk Company declined 3.6 percent to $14.21 today, after a late surge in the NZX trading session yesterday saw the stock close higher in New Zealand than across the Tasman.
Australia’s tense relationship with China, which has imposed a number of barriers and tariffs on exports, is also weighing on investor sentiment as the company is heavily exposed to China.
The dual-listed stock fell sharply today as it caught up with its foreign exempt listing on the ASX, said Grant Williamson, director at Hamilton Hindin Greene.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...t-decline.html
The next sentence adds context...
"...“On the match yesterday, it did get bought up a wee bit, so it actually closed at quite a difference,” he said. “In Australia it is down 1.2 percent today, so it is really just playing catch up to that price today.”
Article from our very own Anne-Marie Brady - might be somewhat reassuring (On Geo-Political Risk blog also)
China is humiliating Australia as an example to others - but the bullying won't last
https://www.smh.com.au/national/chin...01-p56jfz.html
Nice big buyer of 83000 odd shares at $14.18 also for backstop...
BROKERS UPDATE REGARDING A2M
https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/se...rchkeyword=a2m
Below is each of the above brokerage/analyst content detail
Morgans (Add recommendation; SP target $17.28)
https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2020...could-overhang
Macquarie (Outperform recommendation; SP $17.95)
https://www.f**l.com.au/2020/11/22/top-brokers-name-3-asx-shares-to-buy-next-week-22-november-2020/
"....Macquarie, its analysts have retained their outperform rating and $17.95 price target on this infant formula and fresh milk company’s shares. This follows the release of an update at its annual general meeting which reiterated its guidance for FY 2021. While the broker notes that a2 Milk Company will require a huge second half and that there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the daigou channel, it remains positive on the company’s medium term growth prospects"
(think UBS stuff was posted earlier by werdplayer? ignore if this is a repeat)
UBS (Buy recommendation; SP target $20.50)
https://www.sh*recafe.com.au/2020/11/19/a2m-ubs-rates-the-stock-as-buy-5/
Credit Suisse (Buy recommendation; SP target ?)
- I could not find any publicly available analyst comments/SP target price; anyone else can find it?
Finally,
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/stoc...-a2m/fi-aa45a2
*Credit Suisse data does feed into MSN Money finance tables, so whatever their price target is, its included in 12mth SP target $19.17 with EPS estimate of 0.53