i have always liked ift , consider it a core stock to a portfolio and the last lot i brought was at 7.60 ,
been trading sideways most yr but looking good for upside break now.
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Very little liquidity so far today, no one selling and the trickle of sharesies money seems to be drifting it higher. $8.08 so far, will be interesting to see the AU market opening.
seems to have broken through a triple top so could have some legs!
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IFT - building out a global renewable multi-jurisdiction segment with diversified risk and a tornado level tailwind is pretty exciting.
The real release from the Asian renewable launch in my mind was that for the first time we had some visibility on the potential valuation of this segment - with Long roads 'independent' valuation at $1.8bn (only valuing a tiny portion of their development pipeline and taking a cautious multiple) helps highlight a massive upside in this segment. As others have noted comparisons to Brookfields aggregated play are incredibly favourable.
As they consider aggregating into one global operation - it would be interesting to know whether their are real operational synergies - or simply facilitating a future divestment. In any case - it appears to have a huge potential.
If Longroad's conservative enterprise value is approx $1.8bn and it only includes one year for their forward development pipline and a low multiple - it's probably not hard to speculate that it might be worth $3bn on an open market or more. That means there's $1.2bn of IFT value in that single entity. The previous spot price reports i've seen had IFT's share of longroad at $150m - so there's somewhere in the order of $0.5bn-$1.2bn of upside from an analysts perspective pre announcement ot post announcement - hence the rapid share price lift.
If i look at the whole pie - there's a data business that is serially undervalued relative to it's peers - and growing like a steam train, an incredibly exciting emerging renewables segment with the same characteristics - and a nice steady state - health segment and massive b/sheet leverage available. What's not to like?
Sounds like you are not worried about the green bubble deflating? So, what do you think would be a sensible P/E for Infratil? Current forward P/E (based on analyst forecasts for the next 3 years) is 800.
If you think that is too cheap - what about 1000 or 1500? - or am I setting my eyes still too low?
If I understand you correctly than you are saying "one can't have too many IFT".
Where did I hear that before?
Renewables, BP "gambling" big
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speci...100617899.html
Hey black Peter, if pe is 800 how come they are paying a dividend of 3-4%? (And still have money to reinvest) Is it possible that the “earnings” part of the equation isn’t capturing their free cash flow. Something for you to think about….
Dec 20,SP
"As a value investor looking for balance sheet assets that deliver growth with income, it’s hard to look past this Company’s dynamic stable of infrastructure assets."
https://www.wealthmorning.com/2020/1...be-worth-more/
I really don't know how they work this out but
https://walletinvestor.com/nzx-stock...ock-prediction
I agree, it's hard to go past this diversified infrastructure company. Unsure about wallet investor though.
No need to be condescending - I know the game :):
Free Cash Flow is a fine thing if your write offs are higher than the capital you loose. This is the game of the Gen tailers ... write a power plant off over 50 years but use it for hundred plus years - plenty of free cash flow ...
Question is just - while we know that this game works with hydroplants, do we really know how long wind generators and solar systems live ... and are we sure that they are currently still undervalued given the green bubble?
Maybe something for you to think about :p ? And be careful - so easy to mix up "groupthink" with the activity of "thinking" ;):
I guess a 30 year track record of approx 20% return for shareholders, which has largely been delivered in a very consistent manner over that time should tell you the p/e analysis you're doing might not be giving you a good basis to analyse the future stock performance.
What we can see analyse is that a range of their segments / assets in the sum of the part broker valuations being included way below market bench marks.
We also see a long history of IFT divesting component parts at a time of their choosing - and running strong process to maximise outcomes.
What I believe is that they've never had a stronger portfolio set with better forward propsects than right now - and they've got in early to some really good thematics - that should promise very well for the next 5+ years. You stick to that p/e analysis if it's served you well. If that's your metric for analysing IFT - best of luck. If you thought about an EBITDA multiple approach - their proportional EBITDA is .5bn - i don't think the multiples are very high for a listed entity with strong tailwinds, in great segments and distributed risk profiles. But i guess the market has got it all wrong for 30 years - yeah right.
Green bubble - yep, climate change is all hot air.
Yes, agree they have a very strong portfolio now. As they have grown over the years they have had the funds to get into some seriously good growth areas (Canberra Data Centres probably being the best example). They are also realistic about getting rid of dogs where necessary. Very happy holder.
Any views on when people think this will hit $10?