Its clear to me from his comments to the N.Z. Herald that the well experienced Mark Lister of Craig's has genuine doubts about their ability to meet the challenging goal presented by their second half sales forecast.
Nobody is disputing that ATM has been a great long term story. I doubt any serious long term investor would be especially perturbed by
a year of share price weakness and this would be a minor blip except for the fact that we're into our
third year of share price weakness now and the shares have dramatically underperformed the NZX50 since March 2018 when they were $13. This fact should have people scratching their head wondering if the fabulous eps growth rates experienced in the past which have driven market outperformance will ever return ? A gain of only $1.80 in the 30 months since March 2018 and all the while with no dividends being paid is not a minor blip and represents quite a dramatic underperformance against the NZX50.
In my opinion shareholders are right to be concerned by the current slowdown, (nobody is actually talking about how forecasted sales this half are down on last year) and right to wonder if the company can meet its lofty 2H sales projections which even if achieved will lead to only a minor uptick in eps 53 cps v 52 cps last year (according to average analyst forecasts on market screener).
The Herdlicker appointment was an abject failure by the board, (called by me very early on with her appointment) and one wonders if the new guy will be any good ?
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/ Currently on a forward PE of 27.7. I think that's expensive for a company that's presently forecast not to grow this year and if my hunch is right, actually experience eps decline. Looking further out analysts have lofty expectations for growth in FY22 and beyond. Time will tell.
I see plenty of challenges ahead am pleased to have exited at $13 in March 2018.
The shares are up by only 13.8% in the last 30 months against the NZX50 which is up 59%.
Of course I accept that there have been some phenomenal years of growth in the past and every man and his dog has pointed to the long term index outperformance.
My key point is I believe the best years of growth are behind this company and the best years of leadership probably are as well.
I share Mark Lister's skepticism about their lofty sales target for the second half. I hope I am wrong as I have a significant stake in Kingfish and they have a significant stake in ATM.