Probability is not Certainity
Purrsonally I do not own any financial instruments dependent upon the S&P500.
I will deal with
whatever happens,
when it happens,
on an individual basis,
with each and every,
share that I own,
as I think is best,
for me.
:)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
PS: This may count as some form of poetry.
Predicting the future is hard - best to figure out a few different scenario's
Scenario 1 33% probability. Base Case. Market goes sideways, (at least as likely as any other scenario given many companies on the NZX will enjoy profit growth this year) and the NZX50 ends the year at circa 7000 because its a gross index and includes accrued dividends.
Scenario 2. 33% probability. Interest rates head to 100 year lows to stimulate the economy because dairy stays stubbornly low and we see further PE expansion and combined with profit growth NZX50 heads to 7500 - 8,000
Scenario 3. 25% probability. Version of the above two which sees some capital increase in value because of average company profit growth plus accrued dividends sees the NZX50 somewhere between 7,000 - 7,500 by year end.
Scenario 4 8% Probability. World wide growth concerns force a world-wide recession and we have a substaitial fall from here.
Basically that's how I see it. With call account interest rates currently at circa 2% and headed lower I think its more than likely that central banks around the world keep interest rates ultra low for the foreseeable future, likewise the RBNZ and with the N.Z. market having a very high dividend yield I expect this to be a supportive environment for equities.