Ugly stuff is happening...Looking at today's performance so far, they may be thankful they're out...
Printable View
S&P back to where it was a month ago
No worries
@RBAdvisors: $Copper up today despite turmoil. Could Dr. Copper be forecasting #Brexit isn’t the end of the free world?
There are worries for me as my Sentiment Indicator GET OUT signal has been triggered..It happened Friday and my attention was elsewhere otherwise I would've posted this last Saturday..
Its been a while since the last Get Out trigger see post #1618 page 108 Mid November 2015 Ive since changed the EMA50 to MA50as EMA50 seemed too sensitive.The November warning was a partial failure due to over sensitive EMA50..the first failure since I started using this indicator over 3 years now...My sentiment indicator gives usually a couple of days warning (not this time...shock happening but 2 warnings did trigger).
The indicator does not indicate how deep the correction could be..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...%20nya200r.png
How useful to the NZ sharemarket is my S&P500 Sentiment Indicator ?...
The chart below shows for the most times over the last year the S&P500 and NZX50 correlated very well at 0.81 ..significant...However it was a little wobbly in May
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...on%20NZX50.png
Yep could happen..re VIX analysis....Also one has to mindful that the VIX is a two edged sword..
Today the SPX closed on/near their major resistance levels
Just depends on how many "get rich quick" merchants got on board during the sell off.....Is there enough of them to affect the SPX when they dump at the next piece of media bad news...and take their profits?
Any idea where sell off points could be?...The FIB Retracement normally measures areas on the price chart when herd behaviour (investors) get the "willies"...FIB RET 38.2% successfully overhauled (~2038).. 61.8% got beaten last night (~2068) but the SPX close is still in that area (2071)..The 61.8% is an area where there is strong both short and long term resistance lines ( 2071 - 2075 )...a big hurdle here
So..strong buying pressure is needed to break through this 2071 - 2075 area...Any faltering of the price would see profit takers dominate and add reinforcing to make that resistance area stronger and harder to break the next time...
Breakout's???...Its summertime and this time of year usually has low volume...Chances are high that any breakout would be genuine. but have to watch carefully as low volume breakouts do have a chance of being bull traps.
After a breakout?...Another FIB is at 76.4% (~2085) is minor not much resistance around there...2100 long term resistance is a biggee. (Primary Resistance)
So there has to be a lot of buying to get to a new record high...The profit takers will be taking it day by day...remember the VIX (showing increased volatility atm) is a two edged sword.
Long term Fundamentals are playing no part in this current Equity game......been overpriced for a couple of years now...
Another day like today and new high for S&P500
Solid rises of late
No worries
yep...good stuff...broke one of the big resistances at 2070-75 area...now with the SPX at 2098 it's at the next big hurdle (~2100 area)...
Investors must be starting to think that Equity market will always bounce back from corrections and always go higher...eh... (not referring to you Winner)
There's a few on ST that believe this..those in red ink think they will be in clover in a couple of years...maybe they're right..maybe not...
Some Commentators say this is the 2nd longest living Bull in US Equity history at 7.5 years old. (Shiller's table below disagrees) My opinion is Wall St has been a prolonged stage 1 bear for a long while now because of no higher highs ..Currently Wall St is testing its old highs (set at 2135 more than 13 months ago) in an attempt to create a higher high...Being so close I concede that a higher high is a real possibility..
So lets look at the Bull stats..The longest bull (12.3 years old) in history gained +~500% and occurred between 1987 and 2000..That bull got so overpriced it took the SPX index another 13 years to reach above that bull's valuation peak....In comparison this 2009- bull has gained +~300%...
The table below is 3 years old so the latest 2009- bull figures are outdated..
https://greenbackd.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=640&h=456
Shiller 2013
Some good news from Factset
Positive Shift in EPS Guidance for Q2
Thank you for the link.We should not forget that historically still interest rates are low. In addition, we see negative interest rates. On top of that there are government stimulus and global central banks support etc. I am bullish on world stocks more than before. Brexit panic created some great opportunities for some intelligent investors.
Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities helped the S&P 500 Index to its best week in seven months.
Hi Entrep
My overall sentiment indicator was designed specifically to warn investors early of an incoming correction. I should not say "my" as I did not invent it.. No indicator is perfect but this one predicts future corrections very well. Too well actually as it is sensitive enough to pick up very shallow corrections just before they happen
Unfortunately..It wasn't designed to predict end of corrections/ beginning of rallies and it does this badly, often triggering off late at the end of temporary relief rally.. ..
KST indicator (Know Sure Thing) is a collection of ROC (rate of change) indicators of differing periods and smoothed by moving averages..so it indicates late but early..Here's how that can be possible... KST picks up changes of momentum but because it is smoothed by moving averages it is less sensitive to sudden brief momentum fluctuations therefore can be a tad late to indicate the change..The signal line cross over (the red arrow) always occurs in positive territory (above the centre line) which means there are more buyers than sellers (a bull situation) at the time but the buyer momentum is weakening and this can lead to going below the centre line into negative (more sellers than buyers) which is a bear situation, so KST signals early...KST on its own doesn't indicate the S&P500 price is going to fall significantly (sometimes a signal line cross over occurs and the price keeps rising) but combined with 3 other indicators KST becomes powerful....Why these 4 combined indicators are not as powerful in predicting a rally I'm not sure in knowing the answer..
To answer your query..only 3 of 4 have fired blue arrows.. the KST is late and hasn't fired (yet)...so my sentiment indicator hasn't predicted this current rally.
Im expecting this pull back to make new highs for a week "The market is designed to fool most people most of the time" - Jesse Livermore. So I'm confused.
So close we may as well say a new all time high ....yippee
And on the back of Q2 earnings being down on last years number - 5th quarter in a row of declining earnings (earnings recession)
But the decline is generally less than expected - that's good and provides hope that things are going to get better
S&P500 still rising
No worries
EPS report. http://www.factset.com/insight/2016/...s#.V4FlppEaySM
Yeah Winner a record high at close...2137
The 1Q earnings were tepid but were above market expectation..Mr Market liked that
Media will soon be focusing on 2Q when the majority of companies report their earnings results over the next few weeks..Mr Market is taking an optimistic view...
Factset Insight Research published an article yesterday...they will be looking at the Brexit impact on corporate earnings or revenue in future quarters.
The Article shows the results (Brexit mentions/effects) of 23 of the S&P500 companies that have reported 2Q results so far since Brexit
Thats how markets work sometimes - defies logic
One factor is that when profits are reported they are generally better than expected (not as bad as they thought they would be)
Gives rise to optimism / things are getter much better and earnings are going to grow. Markets are forward looking
You still waiting for the crash Aaron?
We should not forget about central bank stimulus as well. Central banks are the biggest market movers.
S&P500 over 2150 - and rising
Still another 10% to go in this burst
No worries
Still waiting. It is really a buy everything or buy nothing decision for me at the moment(Patience will win again for now but how long can this go on).
I guess I'll have to join the revolution of the people who missed the boom and the young people who never had a chance to buy real assets with funny money. On the bright side October last year, just to sate a desire to do something/anything while everyone around me becomes a millionaire I bought small lots of OGC & NCM sadly the share parcels were so small the great results aren't making much difference to my net worth.
I admire your optimistic outlook.
The S&P500 still rising - 2200 beckons next week as results beat expectations (ie not as bad as forecast)
No worries
This is a worry though -
The market meandered about for the next seven months going nowhere. It then suddenly dropped in January and February, falling 13% from its May 2015 high. This was unacceptable tocentral bankers around the globe who believe stock market gains are the only factor reflecting the health of our economic system. Maybe it’s because they are only beholden to bankers, oligarchs, corporate chieftains, corrupt politicians, and unaccountable bureaucrats. Central bankers from around the world have come to the rescue by buying stocks and providing unlimited liquidity to banks and corporations so they can buyback their own stocks. The result, is new record highs.
From this good piece. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article55883.html
S&P500 still reaching new highs
EPS decline not as bad as expected
No worries
Janet's pixie dust making the equity investors feel good..Powerful stuff that.
worth noting VIX is below 12 - not a lot of fear out there....
S&P500 still rising
Earnings going to be down for 5th quarter in a row .......and analyst forecasts for Q3 have now gone negative as well
Bit the world is happy as can be so no worries
As of today, the blended earnings decline for the second quarter for the S&P 500 stands at -3.7%. Factoring in the average improvement in earnings growth during a typical earnings season due to upside earnings surprises, it still appears likely the S&P 500 will report a year-over-year decline in earnings for the second quarter. If the index does report a year-over-year decline in earnings for the second quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported five consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q3 2008 through Q3 2009.
http://www.factset.com/insight/2016/...s#.V5PWFpEaySM
@EddyElfenbein: Of S&P 500 companies that have changed guidance, nearly 90% have been HIGHER. That's the best rate in six years.
It's all about perception - reality doesn't come into it
So 2250 beckons and then 2500
No worries
Winner..
I'm not sure what to make of this GAAP v non-GAAP reporting issue....My opinion with Marketwatch are that they are "Drama Queens" some good stuff mixed with total rubbish...Although GAAP reporting is compulsory MarketWatch are suggesting the companies highlight their non-GAAP results as those results are nearly always higher than the GAAP results. It makes the Company look better and the media focuses on Non-GAAP figures. MarketWatch also mentioned the use of made up unaudited figures in non-GAAP results.
They say Wall Street analysts often measure forecasts with non-GAAP results...
Winner, Roger, others,...what do you all make of this??..
A Company Fundamentals are becoming very complicated for this kid to understand... all this financial spin doctoring...whew
Read this somewhere - seems to sum it up
Watching this market is like watching Trump’s candidacy. Everyone is waiting for both to crash and burn but they keep climbing to greater heights. Even Fox News appears to oppose Trump without much effect just as the stock market sets new records in the midst of gloomy economic news all around.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” ...Benjamin Graham.
Question: how long does it take for a voting machine to turn into a weighing machine?
2 years now and still counting
Chart is factset but I got it from Marketwatch article
http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedi...a-0015c588dfa6
Good chart eh Hoop
S&P500 pushes to new record high. Lots of jobs apparently
Maybe the rise driven by those phoney normalised pro-forma earnings
No worries
Every 6 months or so, I run some basic metrics to check the valuation of the S&P 500 in comparison to its historical average. I use this to as a guide to determine how much new investment capital to put to work in the US market.
The following pendulum graphs show the current S&P 500 earnings yield and dividend yield relative to the historical average. I've used a trailing 12-month earnings and dividend calculation from figures provided by Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance from NYU. The averages are calculated from 1961/62 onwards.
You can see that from a market earnings yield and dividend yield, the S&P 500 is expensive, but not in the excessive or sky high territory. We are still below 1 standard deviation above the historical mean. Growth investors will tend to look at the earnings yield metric while cash flow investors focus on dividend payments.
As of August 11, Thomson Reuters reported 71% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, 11% have matched expectations and 18% have reported quarterly earnings below the consensus estimate. So it would appear than a “disappointing earnings expectation initiated crash” is not in the immediate horizon. If we are due a crash, it's usually something totally unexpected (black swan) rather than the "usual suspects" the media get fixated on.
This stubbornly expensive market could be explained by the pendulum graphs you see on the bottom line. This shows the differential between S&P 500 earnings and dividend yields in comparison to the risk free rate. I have used the current interest rates on the 10-Year US treasury as a proxy for the risk free rate. In the past, the earnings yield as only exceeded the risk free rate by an average of 0.24%. However, in this exceptional low interest rate/low growth environment, we see the S&P 500 earnings yield exceed the interest rate on the 10 year treasury by whopping 3.29% compared to the paltry 0.24% it usually does. The dividend yield has lagged the risk free rate by a historical average of 3.4%, because most stock investors expect gains to come from increasing stock prices. They are happier to settle for much less dividend cash payments for much higher capital gains. Recent times have seen the market dividend yield actually exceed the risk free rate.
The extraordinary low interest rate environment of recent times provides a level of support and liquidity to the stock market. Investors have to put their money somewhere, and interest-bearing instruments have not been an attractive destination. Not everyone has the appetite to put their investment money in gold.
Attachment 8221
The reason I post these graphs is to provide a relative basis for where the market currently is in relation to its historical averages.
I think you can agree that they support the view recently expressed by legendary investor Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital:
"Asset prices are full today. I don't think we're in a bubble. But I view them as on 'the high side of fair' which means nothing is a bargain - nothing is available at laughably cheap prices."
Thanks Boring ...interesting post
I believe there are always cheap stocks to be had; but i agree with the general mkt values being high.
this from KW is int
"August 12 "Last night all three major US stock indices closed at record highs for the first time since 1999. Does that mean 2000 is just around the corner again?"
From Colin Twiggs
The S&P 500 is forming an inverted scallop below 2200. A rounding top requires more of a bowl shape with even sides, like an inverted "U". The inverted scallop looks more like an inverted fishing hook, with a much shorter leg on the right. A strong continuation pattern in bull markets according to Thomas Bulkowski, who ranks it 3 out of 23 (1 being best), with only a 4% break even failure rate. The pattern is completed by breakout above the high — 2200 in this case — and would only rally after testing support, around 2100 to 2130. Strong Twiggs Money Flow values suggest long-term buying pressure.
Interesting
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jareddil.../#5649159dac83
As Jarrod says
In my experience, the worst body slams in the stock market don’t come from things that everyone knows about, like Brexit, and the China currency deval. They come from things that people don’t understand. Retail investors won’t understand what’s happening when the “safe” stocks they own are suddenly not so safe.
Over the past month, the min vol/high dividend strategy has started to underperform. I wonder out loud if it portends something more–dramatic.
People don't understand because they are media taught and the media is a bad teacher..
The Market Cycle has reached the point for investors to have to learn Market theory to continue making Capital gain..the days of having your Monkey as your Financial Advisor and a dart board in your office are numbered.
I've been trying to get people to learn Market systems recently and I have been socially shunned..Granted its hard for them to do so after several years of successful share investing they think they know it all and have gained experienced.....So for me its good to see this article get mentioned....
What scares me is I've seen this identical period in time happen over and over....This time its a different market metric to last time, as it always is and will be ... but the overall investor behaviour (as seen by high PE Ratios) outcome stays the same.. each time..
I've mentioned that common sense is flown out of the window and that has annoyed everyone from top skilled investors downwards who have this year been blinded and driven by yield greed...creating extremely overvalued stocks especially Utilities which are considered lagging stocks...and this time the excuse to greed is.. " where else can I invest to get a decent yield ?"
helped by the media driven low interest rate = higher PE media bull**** to reinforce that argument
Greed is Greed there's no excuse for that investment action...Emotion kills and greed is an emotion..
PE10 is up to 27 (S&P500).....This is crash territory folks!!..
...so anyone entering this extremely high PE Ratio driven market now using a long term investment strategy and relying on high yield to cover the medium term dips as an excuse has got rocks in their heads for brains.
Buying up Cyclical stocks with very low PE Ratios and reaping very high yield rate as an excuse, they also has rocks in their heads for brains.
If you can't understand, think its a paradox or disagree to what I said above ..then it's time to give the Monkey the sack..
Amazingly... the US media hyped up this announcement all week expecting numbers of 180,000...once it was released it was quickly removed from the limelight and buried into the back pages....I guess the Media is in a period of Presidential good news and happiness at the moment..who wants to limelight 151,000 bits of bad news..eh.
Meanwhile, Wall St seated at the Mad Hatters tea party table is partying on knowing that the Queen of Hearts will now be reluctant to move on interest rates....."more tea anyone?:D:D"
There's been a lot of fuss about non-payroll data over recent years as commentators use it as one guideline to how the FED will react..
Below is a very long term chart which cancels out the media noise and shows the true facts and trends over the last 75 years.
The chart shows the recent period (since 2008) of slightly less growth which is compensated by the extra length of time between contractions..
Also noticeable is less volatility for longer periods between contractions since the 1960's..and especially so, since the mid 1980's...Viewing this recent run on the chart, Is the current low volatile run due to end soon?
Referring back to the September 2 non payroll data.Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries while it declined in manufacturing, mining and construction.
I'm personally trending towards primary sector investing atm so this mining data result is not a good result for me
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/char...01&d2=20161231
Good post there hoop
Also came across this
@dailydirtnap: John Bogle is 87. Will he live long enough to see the index bubble burst?
(Bogle is founder of Vanguard and champion of index funds)
Thanks Hoop
Personally I'm cashing out of illiquid unlisted investments as good offers have come in from other investors who are looking for value and yearly returns.Suits me to grab it while its there.Paying down OD and also trending to primary sector for further investment
Yeah..John Bogle one of the greats..
I like reading the 10th Man guy's posts (Jared Dillian)..what a very intelligent, verbally colorful character with a street fighter personality...I suppose him being an ex ETF trader, John Bogle would spring into his mind every now and again..
Kiora.. do you read his articles??
No interesting but I haven't heard of him before.I'll do a bit of investigation thanks W69. Commentators I follow primarily Colin Twiggs, Craigs(very little reliance) , 4 traders for brokers perspective and sharetrader for entertainment :),investor sentiment with a dash of knowledge
PT gets my vote for entertainer of the forum.I bet he gets as much fun posting as I get trying to decipher his posts
Janet was never going to do anything before the elections to upset the markets.
She done a fantastic job in keeping things chugging along nicely - they will be pleased
Yep she has...
Actually looking back with hindsight...back in 2007 with Uncle Ben,,,talk about "Johnny on the Spot", having a leading Authority of Economic Depressions heading the FED.....One can only imagine what could have happened to the No1 ecomony of the World if the Brain Trusts did not burn the midnight oil for weeks on end dreaming up new "outside the square" untested monetary tools to fight the GFC...
Prolong Depression???...we will never know but with an assumption that Monetary tools smooths out the extremes ...the period since the GFC being one of extreme easing and only managing to achieve chronic low growth with near 0% inflation, we could assume the USA without Uncle Ben and Aunty Janet might have been one doosy economic decline..probably powerful enough to prematurely kill off that DOW (S&P) Secular Bear as it did in 1930
The Democrats put up a publically disliked candidate and the Republicans said we can match that and do one better....so now there a 2 publically disliked candidates...About as irrational as their sharemarket...What's going on over there??
.....and the favoured one is more crooked?
You'd love this short video about Janet
https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/535...estors-told-me
S&P500 keeps up near record highs
Heading for 6th succussive quarter of decline in eps
Janet wll ensure no turmoil before the election
No worries for a while
An outfit released their August US Manufacturing index showing it fell back to 49.something (contracting).. the first time since 2010...I tried to find it just now to reference it to my post but its disappeared..Can't remember the outfit name neither so cant google it...Geez are they quick or what in burying the bad news at the moment..
Found it!!!.. I googled US manufacturing index August...Ha!! that explains it..... the older (5 days old) manufacturing index result news has been replaced by the healthier (still down trending though) non-manufacturing index result..
Yeah and this poor news will help stop turmoil too....Probably stop Janet from raising interest rates.....bad news is "good" news for Wall St ...Do you feel like everything is upside down atm?
Interesting chart here. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ly-not-nothing
Sentiment flip overnight with a Fed member previously a dove, flip to hawkish. Probably still no rate rise until Dec at the earliest & perhaps next year.
Wells Fargo reinforcing the banking bad reputation that the banks have and their complete disregard for honesty.
In regards if Yellen has been doing a good job, I beg to differ, but perhaps she is only dealing with the cards dealt to her be government policy.
The proof will be in what happens when rates start being normalised.
Globally we have a demographic issue of the baby boomer wealth wanting a safe place to park and they would prefer a large position in cash if they can get a yield. This burger flipper recovery is a problem for the Fed as although unemployment has improved dramatically, even if the numbers have been manipulated, (remember the change when sickness beneficiaries were removed) they are on the whole lowly paid jobs and the jobs lost were on average paying multiples.
Anyhoo, I had built a large position in the VIX and that certainly paid very big dividends overnight! Took profit on the majority of the position but have kept 25%.
Daytr - Janet is doing a good job to ensure the stock market stays high in the run up to the election. That's what they want her to do
Not doing such a good job in boosting the economy though - but thats a minor consideration
This transcends just the economy ,but thought it was interesting
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/...%80%99t-change
despite the 2.5% drop it is interesting that Colin Twiggs stated on Fri afternoon (our time) , so that is before US trading that:
The S&P 500 continues to consolidate below 2200 with a rounding top. A short downward leg would complete an inverted scallop — like an inverted fishing hook— a strong continuation pattern in bull markets. Respect of support at 2100/2130 would complete the pattern.
Attachment 8291
There may be some volatility in the coming week but the bull market in stocks isn't dead yet.
Interesting where we have come from
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=...0%2Cm200&a=&c=
Is this "this time its different?"
Where is the volume ?
They gave Janet a good old telling off and she has sorted out her team so all back on track. Markets heading to new highs before the election.
Janet needs to make sure her team keeps to the script.
As I said before, Madam Janet is doing a great job. In addition, still global central banks want to maintain their loose monitory policy. Definitely, we should see next rate hike in 2017.
Attachment 8294
Need to rise above todays levels to break above the broken support conjunction (now strong resistance)..another drop would confirm todays rally was not a rally but a pullback (second chance to sell out)..Keep in mind that all bullish patterns on the S&P 500 chart got wiped out with Fridays drop...
After the mouse click to enlarge the image It may not be large enough to read the type.. Hit both Ctrl and + buttons on the keyboard together to enlarge image further........Ctrl and - to reduce
It was obviously a giant head fake as CNBC called it. One Fed speaker flips & the market sneezed, however its unrealistic I think that the Fed will raise rates before the election and they may even push it our further if Trump gets elected. I can't see markets going too much higher especially with the election looming. Glad I traded right out of my VIX position and took a whopping profit. I might have to reset that one if I get a chance..
I think the FED may not move...2 results were unexpected..the consensus was for growth to pick up again starting the middle of 2016... the US manufacturing index August results released last week showing a continuing downtrend in expansion and the US non-manufacturing August results released the week before showing a contraction for the first time since 2010...I think these results will be considered bad enough to prevent a rate hike by the FED...See my post #1762 07-09-2016.
I'm not convinced Friday's drop was the news of a possible rate hike this month ...this is old regurgitated news and factored in.....this eery calm spooking the restless herd..could be something else is brewing ...or... .. nothing but herd paranoia (sentiment) and the market may bounce back quickly, a la Brexit...time will tell....
Head fakes don't cause major technical breakdowns..Dayr....Presently the S&P500 and the DOW are technically broken..Mondays "relief rally" did not fix it...the"relief rally" looks more like a pullback than a rally..A pullback is a rise back to near its break price point where the rise then fails ...The market has to break back to repair the technical damage...If it doesn't, then a correction will happen 5% 10% 15% 20% who knows...
Because the market is broken there's a better chance it will fall on Tuesday
Honestly the market is probably due for a correction (healthy?)... it's had a rapid rise since Brexit lows..
Daytr quote .." Glad I traded right out of my VIX position and took a whopping profit. I might have to reset that one if I get a chance.."
Well done mate ....back "in" tonight are we:)
Just as well this time is different
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/th...6-10?r=US&IR=T
Yeah me too...I've seen plenty of comparision charts over the years... there use to be a very scary 1929 comparsion chart floating around some years ago..
Your post jogged my memory to check my Sentiment warning indicator..I was rather surprised to see that the Get out warning got triggered on the 12th September...Not much drama occurred then so this warning slipped under my radar...
Normally the Sentiment indicator triggers warnings a few days in advance of the drop (except the Brexit was sudden) but this latest warning is a month old and there has been only a mild weakness, however the warning is still active...that's strange!!...
If this weakness turns into a drop, I can say that it shouldn't come as a surprise to investors as they had plenty of warning this time around...
Previous Sentiment Indicator warning chart posted 28th June 2016 Post #1705 (Brexit)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2012102016.png
Thanks for the update on your indicators Hoop.
Looks like it could be a telling night/few days for US markets. Trends being broken - watching 2120 for a break with interest.
Currently (using the monthly candles) we await a bullish outcome in November based on a potential rising three methods.
Attachment 8374
We had the breakout above the previous high during the month of July. We still await the fourth candle (long and green hopefully) to satisfy the requirement of the candle pattern. Current red candles are price coming back to find support at the high of 2015.
Attachment 8373
For November to be bullish, expected earnings must not disappoint...
This schedule may be useful (from NZH 21/10/2016)
Earnings schedule for the week of 10/24/2016
11:15 PM Friday Oct 21, 2016
- Major companies tentatively scheduled to post quarterly earnings next week:
MONDAY
Restaurant Brands International Inc. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Visa Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
TUESDAY
Caterpillar Inc. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
General Motors Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Merck & Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
WEDNESDAY
Boeing Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Coca Cola Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Comcast Corp. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Southwest Airlines Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Tesla Motors Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
THURSDAY
Aetna Inc. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Altria Group Inc. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Ford Motor Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
United Parcel Service Inc. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
Alphabet Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
Amazon.com Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
Apple Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
Twitter Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
FRIDAY
Exxon Mobil Corp. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
thanks for that Hoop. yes all those things will have an impression but maybe Hillary winning is enough??
November should be better than October and September. However, I don’t expect big jump in developed markets until end of this year. Instead, we could see Santa rally and rally in individual stocks. I particularly more bias toward global food related stocks. They are one of the categories which can produce good earnings. On Friday McDonald's Corp. (MCD) gained nearly 3% after the fast-food giant reported better than expected earnings.
So far Both MCD and Microsoft reported better than expected earnings.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...osted-by-cloud
Yes it has become increasingly likely of a Clinton win over the last few weeks but a factor for the risk could still be there. Brexit surprised.
Also the Fed rate may or may not eventuate, so there are at least two big factors , both of which still has the possibility of surprising.
haha I shouldn't be talking about the FA explanation for a TA pattern which is still developing
Peat, I don't know what information you are looking at but a Clinton win has pretty much stayed static in the last 3 weeks, if the money is to be believed. At about a 17% chance give or take 1%. But agree with you that the "brexit" risk is still implied in the market.
its not too important but for the sake of face I quote from Investopaedia
During the primary season, Trump consistently led in the polls. After the conventions, Clinton opened a wide lead, but by the end of September, the race looked neck and neck again.
Trump's October surprise – the release of a tape from 2005 in which he claimed to be able to assault women sexually with impunity because he's famous – brought him back to lows he hasn't seen since the end of the Democratic convention in July, and his debate performances have not been able to halt his slide in the polls.
Read more: Donald Trump for President: What Are the Chances? | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz4Nsk32GBu
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Fair call, I understand that, and the polls probably are sliding, although he is more robust in the electoral ones that matter. Still not there but close enough to have a shot. What I am saying is that any market moves over the last 2 weeks or so should not have been because of an increased Clinton win because well there has not been an increased winning chance for Clinton in the last 2 weeks. Anyhow its a moot point. Because Clinton is almost guaranteed to win, there will be more turmoil if she does not one thinks than if she does.
Goldman Sachs cuts its forecast for S&P 500 earnings
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldma...115840969.html
S&P 500 (^GSPC) price-earnings multiples could expand even further
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gutsy-...123829662.html
Opening quote from Factset Newsletter "...Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 23% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings for Q3 2016),
78% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 65%of S&P 500 companies
have reported sales above the mean estimate...."
Factset Earnings Insight Newsletter 21st October 2016 (PDF) 27 pages
Yep..early days yet but these more downward revisions than upward disclosures goes against the analysts forecasts of a 2017 earnings recovery..Also that piece on Apple was interesting..such a large company that its fortunes can dictate the whole S&P500 market....scary
From Seeking Alpha comes this balanced article for us Techies :), analyses the state of the S&P 500 and which way it could go..
Technically Speaking: Bullish Or Bearish? by Lance Roberts
certainly a closing of the gap recently, and this is before the FBI announcement.
"... an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll released on Saturday Clinton’s lead over Trump has shrunk to two points from as many as 12 points less than a week ago, according to Bloomberg. The poll was conducted October 24-27, before the FBI announced it might open a new investigation into Clinton’s emails."
A week is a long time in politics , I'm anticipating a large relief rally in November but wont pre-empt it.
Good old Janet - saved the day again by being a bit 'dovish'. She doing a great job for them.
Could have been carnage the way things were heading - below 2100 and all that
From twitterland
@carlquintanilla: S&P hasn't had 8 losing sessions in a row since .. Oct 2008. (via @peterschack) @CNBC
No worries though - just the ups and downs of a market
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/01/why-s...eks-ahead.html
Whystocks may be set for a huge move in the weeks ahead
Ditto 9 days up on VIX, 27 years since that last happened. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX
But as reported here, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/her...ars-2016-11-03, "While the current slump is shallow by comparison, the market has suffered some technical damage. The S&P 500 closed at a nearly four-month low, ending just a few points above its 200-day moving average, which many market technicians see as an important support level."
"There’s something strange about the stock market’s long losing streak" http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...eak-2016-11-02
"In the days ahead with volatility likely to pick up as U.S. voters go to the polls to elect the next president, it may make sense to view the market through a wider lens." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wor...art-2016-11-03
No worries eh. :eek2:
we have a long wick now for November , can it turn green and engulf!!! ?
Hoop - Copper on a roll the last few weeks
Good positive sign
No worries