Originally Posted by
Maverick
Value ,
That was an inspiring post. I, too, hope it leads to healthy debate.
Thank You for putting in so much effort.
You asked for feedback, here's mine, it is written as only my opinion and in high regard of you and your work. Do not feel at all criticized, . …
Point 1 . diversification.
That is a topic so big it deserves its own thread. I'm currently reading “ the psychology of money “. It helps explain why you and I are undiversified and feel totally logical while other intelligent folk see us as pure madness . Like you, I too see diversifying too much , as averaging down and yet almost everyone else would see it as a non negotiable.
I do though, remind myself often of 2 opposing sayings to remind me of the gravity of both un and pro- diversification….
“A man finds treasure in a field, covers it over,, then goes and sells EVERYTHING he has and buys that field” …Bible… maximizing profits.
“He who bets the farm will eventually lose it”...probably from some guy who lost his farm.
Diversification is a personal perspective that cannot be argued as it is derived from one's own experiences.And we all think we are right.
2. RV’s are great because of “the float” .
Absolutely ! …but… instos are only looking a year or two ahead.
The float is even now hard to explain to most at this point, its just too soon.. That's for the end game and it will be highly coveted then, but IMO not now. So I don't consider that a reason to own any RV’s in 2024.
I do very much like your forward projections, and especially the graph, but again it's for years ahead and I have observed , especially lately , the market not caring much at all further than 6-12 months forward.
If you are honestly looking many years ahead then I'm seriously impressed and you are a true investor . However, I do notice people tend to change their minds when share prices fall.
3. OCA because it's the cheapest. (mostly on the float ratio).
That's a dodgy reason…” being cheap” that is.
The float I've already brushed aside but sometimes things are just cheap for a good reason. Thats not a good enough reason alone to be all in.
But, I do think using the NTA reason as you have is very valid. This is despite the general rhetoric now saying NTA is bogus…thats bullsh#t…. These buildings are never going to be cheaper to build. So I agree with you that NTA is valid to heavily invest.Yep, you can right now buy a premium new building for 50% of what it cost to build. Go and stand inside one and touch it…yep , maybe you can still smell the new paint and carpet, you can now own it for half price of its cost!
Now there alone is enough reason to be “all in”.
I also agree with the unsold stock comments by you being a big reason to own OCA. . Warning though, as BaaBaa has pointed out . ..They need to sell and soon…they have to sell or else bad stuff happens. IMO those sales rates /prices and margins are vital to deciding OCAs fate.
prices , margins and sales volumes are the vital key now.
IMO , to have such a high conviction and not “lose the farm” on this one stock then you need to be rock solid on these 3 metrics.
Theres already Loads of clues and specific OCA data out there now on sales and prices if you scour and look. Plus the 3 competitors all offering their own specific perspectives and data. The CFO has told us in the latest report the margins as per regions. Brent was recently unusually specific about sales at Helier and ChCh . SUM are just about to update some shortly too …info is everywhere if you know what to do with it.
To be as “all in “ as you and I are then that's where real effort and physical foot work is paramount. (something analysts don't have time to do which gives us the edge if we bother).
So when Sailor , Davflaws , I and some other posters meet up for that beer in January 2025, (apparently with a free lap dance) you should join us. You've got the right stuff mate.