LOL too funny !! Of course those on here with their heads in the sand can't see the wood for the trees.
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Enumerate.
How do you get "profitability"? We know at half year there was a $198.6m net loss (up from a preliminary announcement of $154.9m). We know for Q3 SCF "broke even" with a $1.2m loss. So surely its not a question of "profit" but more one of just how big the loss will be?
It looks like loans are being repaid but new money flowing in is being used to pay the "wall of Debt" so the Deposit Guarantee fee (and the higher interest rates payable) has to be hurting.
SCF reckon their impairments were pretty well covered (but due to be reassessed) - I can't see how those levels of impairment can be maintained - I'm picking a worsening. We know, for example, they will take a $14m hit on the low quality frozen pea asset backing.
SCF reckoned the economic environment was improving leading to more lending opportunities. I reckon the environment down south has worsened. As a lender I don't see that SCF would be first cab off the rank with their higher loan interest rates. Banks are very nervous about lending (indeed I am not sure they are lending at all at the moment) so any money lent by SCF may be going into high risk ventures - if SCF is actually lending.
I don't see a "deal" being done by 31 August. If this was likely we would have had news (probably leaked from the overseas investment office) by now but there has been none.
We know that the AH Stat Man has hurt cash inflows. We know Standard and Poors has reduced their credit rating to Short term C on negative credit watch. They were going to review the negative credit watch by mid July but haven't.
We have had no news that Scales or Helicopters are doing any better than planned - so they are either doing either Ok or not as well as expected.
The Stat man is releasing cash to distressed AH / Aorangi Investors with more news out this week. If they were going to discontinue their investigations I don't see that they would be going to the trouble of finding a way of looking after distressed investor - so I'm not expecting positive news there.
We know Sandy has just taken up a Directorship with Ngai Tahu - I'm interpreting that as an income generating backup plan.
The year end accounts may be healthier than half year - but will they be healthy enough? Will they be better than last years? (we know S&P rating has gone from BB+ to C) Will they need revisions (like last year) before we see the final version.
And we know Sandy's contract is up in December. I think Chris Lee and co are about on the money with another $100m in losses for the six months ended 30 June for a total for the year or circa $300m, but it could be much worse than that going by write-downs in ALF's loan book.
Of course I expect the usual "corporate spin" that most of the losses pertain to SCF's so called "bad bank" and the so called core operation is close to breaking even, e.t.c. e.t.c. and anyone who continues to believe that drivel is "at best", in complete denial.
Roger, you have built castles in the air. Inside those castles, you have built dungeons, within which you have consigned AH and all his investments.
You cite every source, including flotsam and jetsam, but you never piece together your own position, from first principles.
As the level of hysteria rises, so you are emboldened in your views. Are you waging some vendetta against Forsyth Barr - well known to be the AH in house broker. Is this some kind of "professional" jealousy?
It all counts for nothing ... we will have the facts, soon enough.
Your position is clear enough - you are out. I am in.
I must admit, on the SCFHA register, the top 100 changes for July make interesting reading.
The one thing you are correct about is we will know the result soon enough and we will see who's credibility goes up and who's goes through the bottom of the floor.
Regarding the Forsyth Barr matter, let me just put it this way and a quote from the movie Wall St says it best, "their analysts wouldn't know preferred stock from livestock" Feltex, Credit Sails, SCF, anyone care to expand upon the wonderful list of stocks that Forbar have sold their clients down the river on ? By the way Enumerate, it looks like I'm not the only one on here that's stopped taking their so called "professional advice.
The SCFHAs are hadly live anymore. Chances are holders won't get anymore dividends ever, and will be told 'payment to preferred shareholders is unlikely' by the receivers in a few months time.
When SCF eventually reports (not likely to be at the stated 31 Aug date):
1. The deferred tax and prepaid tax assets will be gone (about $100m)
2. The loan to Southbury Corp will be written off entirely ($15.6m)
3. The loan to Southbury Group will be written down to a few cents in the dollar or written off entirely(about $100m)
4. Dairy Holdings and Commtest Instruments will be written down severly or written off (about $50m-$80m)
5. The business and property loan books will book big losses (perhaps $100m)
6. The rural lending book could sustain some big losses (South Island Farm Holdings Limited, especially, and I bet the other 'first ranking' secured loans are first ranking GSAs actually ranking after mortgages over their land (perhaps another $50m-$100m).
Meanwhile, in the last 6 months the company has been selling its good loans and using the cash to pay off debentures, so expect SCF's assets and debenture liabilities to be significantly reduced. SCF is a corpse with mostly unquitable rubbish loans, $300m+ of related party loans, Helicopters, Scales, Dairy Holdings, Commtest Instruments and other bits and bobs.
There's a $500m hole in SCF that is so big Enumerate is the only one who can't see it.
If Torchlight has made $4m more than forecast (PGC profit announcement today) does this mean SCF have paid $4m more than the market has been told?