how much do you think omv will settle for-?several hundred millions
Out of NZo league as you suggest .
OGOG might be interested in which case will they be making another takeover offer for NZO?
Printable View
Possibly-but they have just done one-and another one in the same financial year seems very unlikely-and surely this would be such a major transaction that minority rights would apply ?
Another take over offer at say 62 cents would probably succeed this time-Ironbark potential was so huge that I believe was why ogog last offer failed
Look forward to your further expertise on this.
Thanks
With nta likely to be closer to $1 on an independent valuation I feel anything less than 60 cents would be unacceptable to most.
You may be under-estimating the value of Amadeus-it is earning possibly millions every month-I have not estimated the amount but they should be getting $20 Gj and more for the spot price and the contracts should be heading there.
Would be interested in wiremu opinion and calculation as the earning power of amadeus
Trading is paltry
My belief is that no holders want to sell at so far below the real value but it is puzzling to me why the sp remained so depressed after falling with the rights issue .
I do not believe another rights issue is likely but you have suggested it and maybe that is one of the reasons there are no buyers .
NZO should have around $30 m in the bank deflating and large cash flows coming in .Netback lng price is strong .
Spending a small amount of this surplus on a share back would make sense for OGOG to increase their shareholding percentage-it would be good for all shareholders .
Andrew Jefferies is really propelling these high income streams with long term contracts,infill drills and new exploration in Australia .
New kupe agreement with Genesis .
Probably take more than this for the market to wake up.
Andrew please get the sp moving again-perhaps spend 10% of the cash already in the bank on a share buy back or a small dividend ?
If the sp rises in the next year or two as the old contracts expire and replaced by ones reflecting current gas prices in nz and au would you be likely to sell NZo at 56 cents.?
Would be interested also on opinions of others .
My own feeling is that I might sell around 10% of my holdings only as I believe gas is the transition fuel we need for at least another decade and by then gas will be in even greater demand for all its other uses.
Interesting seeing the comments from the perspective of an ex shareholder.
On one hand I have to hand it to you fish, you have really stuck with it. On the other hand, you probably don't have a choice given the low SP, trading volumes and the size of your holding.
Having met Alistair McGregor on two occasions, I can absolutely assure you that he does not give a flying f*ck about minority shareholders. The prevailing share price is absolutely irrelevant to him. NZO could drop to 1c/share and it would have zero impact on the decisions they make.
Why? Because for all practical purposes, NZO is a wholly owned subsidiary of OGOG. They view it in the same way you would if you owned 100% of any business (and would not get quotes given to you every 15 minutes in terms of what the business is 'worth').
So hoping that OGOG will agree to some sort of a dividend or buy back in order to push up the SP is pie in the sky to be frank. They will not waste a cent of available cash for a short term move to try push up the SP so that minority shareholders can get out.
Same logic applies for anyone hoping for a new takeover offer. Why would OGOG spend money on that now? Tney provided that opportunity years back, we said no at the time because we were keen to participate in Ironbark. Ironbark was dry, and that was the risk we took.
They already effectively own all of NZO as they control everything. Having to do two financial reports a year for the markets is not much of an inconvenience as they have to report most of that info up to Group anyway. Also, at this junction - maintaining a listing is probably not such a bad idea as, in years to come, if they have managed to turn things around for NZO there could be opportunities to sell equity to other keen investots.
But for those hanging in there, if you hold onto your shares - you need to do so accepting the above points. You do not have any say in the future direction of the business. Andrew is a nice enough guy and may well "listen" from time to time if you give him a ring, but your hopes and desires will get zero traction at the Board meetings.
And I would run NZO in exactly the same way if I was OGOG by the way. So if you are going to stick with it, you have to view NZO as a privately owned business of which you are a very small minority SILENT partner. You go where OGOG steer you. Maybe one day you get a dividend, maybe you don't. But any dividend paid will only ever happen when surplus cash produced can no longer be used intelligently for new investments.
Have to agree 100% with mistTea.
Good analysis mista tea and I fully agree .
Ogog are shrewd and rich.
They do not need a high sp or a dividend-nor do I need one but I would really like one or the other !
Tagging along with OGOG feels good to me.
I will be expressing my views at every AGM and suspect I will be attending the next one in person
It isn't hard to argue that we were warned at the time...hand it over or you'll be left with a tanking share price.
So given that why would executive management bother holding any stock in there own name given the absence of any gain. How much do the execs own .?
Anybody know?
Yes we all knew the risk /reward of Ironbark-that’s what attracted many .
Andrew Jefferies owns a lot and bought into the rights offer which should be reassuring to all holders
I have no doubt he is looking at ways to improve the sp. and equally he will be finding it difficult-good news does not work -fund managers will not be wanting to buy shares of any kind atm.
Several staff/ex staff have shares and rights to buy at a higher price .
I am enthusiastic and optimistic the sp will have to increase substantially in the next couple of years
Ok thanks Fish. I guess that's some reassurance. Skin in the game is a good sign.
NZO looks like it is in pretty good shape. Decent cashflows coming in the door to fund future drilling schedules.
I've bought back in for the thrill of hitting the pay dirt. Black gold.
It's at a good entry price for newbies. However, I can understand the frustration of longer term shareholders.
Fairly good shape for whom ?
Most wont have forgotten Ironbark a while back
Pay dirt may be a look in but no touch for long suffering minorities
where the majority control the pot and little incentive exists to spill
a little over to minorities who denied them full control earlier :)
You only BUY NZO or CUE if you have nil interest in seeing any return for many many years and invest for the pure hope to be T/O for a few more peanuts that present price ... worse investment in the sector Vs assets and potential .. they simply don't seem to care for the SP or happy S/H's ,,, Mgmt just working for a wage to their master OGOG.. many of the board OGOG staff don't even take a wage at the likes of CUE...
And I think when you look at the great assets OGOG holds .. NZO/CUE is purely a minor forgotten asset ...You could say bit like a US billionaire with Queenstown property they sometimes use .. is just an asset stays empty 99% of time .. they could Airbnb out etc but its just such a minor interests they can't be bothered...
To be honest I wonder what the remaining staff at NZO do all day at work?.
What could they be working on .. maybe a bid on OMVs cast offs might require some desk time soon ?.
Maybe they're actually doing work on other OGOG projects off shore with the overheads covered by NZO?. Can't really be much happening on the ground locally now ?.
I would think it's more or less lights out at the office?. Am I wrong?. I hope I am.
Lol
You need to read the 28th feb 1/2 yearly report and recent annoucements.
Revenue increased 14%_full year should be around $100 million .
Strong market,new contracts signed-both in nz and au .
New well for kupe
NZo are not working for ogog and the ogog directors have chosen not to receive directors fees.
I do know NZo are doing work for CUE and have even lent CUE $7 million after raising the money for them
Ok well you're definitely more connected to what's going on than me fish so I'll take it as read that it's a busy office. Cheers.
Well I'm in now. 100,000 shares at what I think is a reasonable entry point.
I will report back in 12 months time with a mark to market.
I'm not investing in NZO as a dividend stock. I'm investing because I like the build up of free cashflows which allows management have a punt.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408582
New Zealand Oil & Gas and Triangle sign binding farm out agreement for L7 and EP437.
All confirmatory due diligence complete.
New Zealand Oil & Gas to pay A$1.9 million in back costs.
Regulatory approval process to commence.
Planning underway to secure drilling slots in 1H 2024.
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZO or the Company) is pleased to announce that it has executed a binding Farm Out Agreement (FOA) with Triangle Energy (Global) Ltd (Triangle) (ASX: TEG), to acquire a 25% participating interest in the L7 Production License (L7) and the EP 437 Exploration Permit (EP 437) (together, the Permits).
All of a sudden not much love out there for NZO @ 38.5c
what's going on ?
Lion, I also had them 20 years ago and rode the hype associated with digging holes in the Pike. Then bailed as one of the posters who knew about the geology of the area would not stop going on about rock overhangs and cost over runs etc.
I've only bought back in over the last 2 months as its time to roll the dice again.
52 week lows this morning, trading at 37c.
Actually, it maybe the lowest its traded this century...:mellow:
How many barrels of oil/oil equivalent does NZO produce each year?
Thanks, that's a fair swag for sure.
Natural gas prices are in the toilet at the moment, who knows why.
I was investigating Invesco's equal weight energy ETF this morning after that lady Bryn mentioned it on CNBC, I like it a lot but it has a 0.40 per cent fee where as VDE is just 0.1 per cent. So I'm sticking with VDE.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...610/393388.pdf
Quarterly. An uptick in receipts but nothing too exciting......;)
The scheduled drilling program looks exciting.....
Share price tanked today on low volumes.
I see Dr Chris Mckeown and moved on from NZO after 10yrs-10months .. last position held with NZO - VP Business Development ..
https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrismckeown/
Smart guy has join one of my long term holds 'MELBANA ENERGY' MAY-ASX
Quarterly due out today. Also news on the latest drill.
CUE released Quarterly 2 days ago. Solid results and a bit of positive interest in their share price.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415367
Highlights
- 2P Total Reserves increase of 14% at Palm Valley to 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), associated with the successful drilling and flow performance of the PV-12 well.
- 2P Total Reserves increase of 13% at Dingo to 3.5mmboe, owing to ongoing strong performance from the wells and additional modelling work.
Quarterly Report....
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...518/399405.pdf
Good consistent cashflows. And even better going forward as alot of hard work has been put into recent and future drills.
At some stage in the not to distant future the value of these cashflows will start to be reflected in the shareprice one way or another.
BA 01 drill results are not far away.
NZ investors have priced in a zero percent chance of success.
Reinvesting cashflows into the next drill is the most efficient use of minority shareholders capital at this stage.
If shareholders are chasing a dividend stock then there are plenty of options elsewhere in the markets.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417387
NEW ZEALAND OIL & GAS YEAR END RESULT– REVENUE UP 18%
• Revenue of NZ$98.8 million up 18%, strong gas prices realised for contracted and uncontracted gas
• Production up 7% year-on-year
• Increase in Mahato oil production from development drilling
• Palm Valley gas production up 49% for the year after successful tie-in of PV-12 well
• Operating cashflows of NZ$32.5 million, up NZ$1.0 million year-on-year
• Continued growth expected from Mahato, Kupe and Amadeus developments
New Zealand Oil & Gas is delivering on its growth strategy, with revenue of NZ$98.8 million for the year ended 30 June 2023, up 18% compared to the year before of NZ$83.8 million.
The result is the second consecutive year of increasing revenue since the acquisition of Amadeus Basin assets in Australia’s Northern Territory. Revenue from onshore Australian assets was up 47% compared to a year ago, which only included 9 months of Amadeus. Revenue from Indonesia is up 15%.
Operating cashflows were up by 3% on the prior year to NZ$32.5 million. Increased operating cashflows were driven by the Amadeus assets and development of the Cue portfolio in Indonesia.
Operating costs were up NZ$10.9 million to NZ$35.1 million from NZ$24.2 million a year ago. This year the Amadeus Basin includes 12 months of costs compared to 9 months in the prior year. In addition, increased activity included NZ$2.0 million of workovers at Mereenie and investment in new Perth Basin permits.
Exploration expense of NZ$9.1 million primarily relates to the previously announced drilling at Palm Valley.
Strong production with higher commodity prices, offset by higher costs contributed to the net profit after tax (NPAT) of NZ$19.1 million, down from the previous year of NZ$25.7 million; however net profit before income tax and royalties was up 2.4% to NZ$27.2 million.
NPAT attributable to New Zealand Oil & Gas shareholders was NZ$10.8 million, or NZ$4.7 cents per share.
The Group had NZ$36.4 million of cash at 30 June 2023, down NZ$28.2 million from a year ago. During the year, NZ$22.2 million of deferred consideration was paid relating to the Amadeus acquisition, with only NZ$0.8 million remaining at 30 June 2023.
Chief executive Andrew Jefferies says the cash balance and ongoing operating cashflows will fund the Group through its busy program of development and exploration activity.
“Revenues are growing quickly due to acquisition and development successes. The performance of our production assets is especially pleasing. The cash generated from operations is being put to work, with the pace picking up further in the new financial year (see planned activities chart below).
“We are witnessing unprecedented opportunities in the east coast of Australia gas market, where increasing prices have improved the profitability of additional activity. New Zealand Oil & Gas is positioned to harness this momentum with great acreage that will drive growth, create value, and ensure we deliver: warm homes for families; reliable energy for industry; and eggs over easy for breakfast. Gas is a three-letter word for transition.”
SUCCESSFUL DRILLING
"Activity throughout the year paid off in announcements of reserves upgrades," Andrew Jefferies says.
"A reserves upgrade of 0.7 mmboe net to the Group was announced on 27 July 2023.
"The year has been exceptionally busy, featuring a new well at Palm Valley, workovers at Mereenie, and drilling success at Mahato.
"The Palm Valley drilling program was completed in November 2022, providing success from a second sidetrack into the Pacoota (P1) sandstone, which is the current producing zone. The well has now been tied in and gas production is up 49% on the prior year.
"At Mahato PSC (Production Sharing Contract), development drilling continued with seven wells completed as part of the field development optimisation announced in June 2022. Sixteen wells were in production at year end. Additionally, there was one well drilled and suspended and one water injection well drilled.
"Oil production from the Maari field, offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, continued strongly. Gross production from the Maari fields was 4,700 barrels of oil per day (bopd) at the end of the year, a 16% increase from the start of the year."
PLANNED ACTIVITIES IN FY2024
• A new well to be drilled at Kupe
• Infill wells at Mereenie
• Exploration drilling in the Perth basin
• On-going development wells in the Mahato PSC
CUE ENERGY
Cue Energy Resources (ASX:CUE), contributed NZ$56.4 million to Group revenue . In the Mahato PSC in Sumatra, Indonesia, increased production from ongoing drilling delivered the largest share of Group's revenue, NZ$20.4 million. Gross oil production from the field increased to 6,300 bopd at year end, up from 4,700 from last year. More development wells are planned for the PB field in this calendar year.
Also in Indonesia, the Oyong and Wortel gas fields in East Java contributed revenue of NZ$12.5 million.
Andrew Jefferies says Cue continues to contribute.
“Cue reported its highest annual revenue since 2010, demonstrating success from the company’s growth strategy boosted by our collaboration in the Amadeus Basin. The leveraging of New Zealand Oil & Gas's technical capability across the assets minimises costs and enhances profitability. It’s a win win.”
For further information please contact the Group on: enquiries@nzog.com or +64 4 495 2424
It's all set up for the busy drilling period ahead.
So it's 'eggs over easy' for consumers but nothing for the supporting shareholders....
I'm prepared to wait for them to bring home the bacon.
But then again, I'm not one of those long suffering shareholders that posters elude too.
Yes the sp will stay low for another year .
20 million depreciating in the bank and enough cash flow to fund most projects and a buyback (when the sp is so low it makes good sense and would improve liquidity-current liquidity is atrocious -a slow buyback over the next 2 years would cost a small fraction of future cash flow )
Acts policy is to, 'unban the ban'.
Seymore has probably just won a few Naki votes.
There is no reason this won't happen under an Act National government.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...651/403478.pdf
New Zealand Oil & Gas has agreed to extend the Gas Supply Agreement with South32 Canningtonfor supply of gas from the Mereenie field, for an additional 12 months.Gas supplied under the agreement will be aggregated with existing Mereenie gas supply owned byMacquarie Mereenie Pty Ltd (50%), Central Petroleum Ltd (25%), NZOG Mereenie Pty Ltd (17.5%)and Cue Mereenie Pty Ltd (7.5%), collectively the “Mereenie JV”, to supply a total of 1.46 PJ toSouth32 in 2025.
The GSA is for firm gas supply, with take-or-pay provisions and a fixed price. Pricing has beenrenegotiated and reflects strong market conditions. The GSA extension is conditional ontransportation agreements being finalised by 30 June 2024.
For more information, please see Central Petroleum Ltd’s release, which is attached.
Not long to wait until the next update.
Let's see what the consistent higher oil prices and under pressure nzd translate into cash flow wise.
Newsdesk article: paywalled. Needless to say they were quite happy to see a National/Act/even NZF govt.
Still keen on Kupe, and drilling new wells.
NZ Oil and Gas: 'We're not going anywhere'
Thu, 19 Oct 2023
There hasn’t been much business to do in New Zealand, NZ Oil and Gas's managing director, Andrew Jefferies, says.
I can't get the article. Hopefully the Herald publishes it.
I coughed up and subscribed to NZ Business desk.
Good article.
Very much back in Business with a change in Government.
I expect the quarter cash flow update due tomorrow to be very positive. Low Nzd, high oil prices, solid production and consumer demand.
Here you go Toddy.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...801/406164.pdf
Quarter Highlights
Production up on previous quarter by 2%
Production receipts up 25% on previous quarter
Cash balance of NZ$42.4 million up 16% quarteron quarter
KS-9 rig moving to site Study on helium recovery unit at Mereenie
Inwell production data gathering at Mereenie
South32 Gas Sales Agreement extended
No cashflow report as yet.
Have a read of the CUE Chair address from today's AGM.
Thanks .
Same Chair for CUE as NZO.
Similar large cash surplus and minority shareholder pressure to improve the share price .
A slow share buyback over the next couple of years would do this and cost only a small percentage of future income without impairing investment.
The low sp and lack of liquidity in my opinion is due to potential buyers uncertainty as to future returns/fear of another rights issue etc .
The installation of a new government friendlier to oil exploration may give some optimism about drilling resuming.
However the greenies will be strident in their opposition.
One argument they are likely to raise is NZOG's sale of their interest in Tui to Tamarind who subsequently went bust. This left the taxpayer holding the baby for the cost($NZ394m) of well cleanup and plugging.
This makes it hard to argue the oil and gas industry are good corporate citizens.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Good article in the Herald today about the need for more exploration for natural gas .
Trans power support-and they know more than anyone .
thank goodness the greenies have lost power
Yes, good article.
It's outright sad how the previous left wing Government did not take into account the cost of living when making it's ban decisions.
NZO has a solid balance sheet and decent earnings. Has some good plays in the gas exploration in Australia and in Indonesia.
There is not any real need for them to splash cash around NZ exploration.
Maybe the article should have mentioned Winston desire for the Govt to invest in NZ oil and gas exploration.
All positive for the Industry going forward.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422259
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:NZX: NZO, NZO or the Company) is pleased to announce that,having received the required regulatory approvals, NZO has completed its farm into a 25% participationinterest in Western Australian onshore Production License L7 and Exploration Permit EP 437 (thePermits).The Permits’ Joint Ventures continue to plan for drilling of the exploration wells in 2024.The Permits’ joint ventures both comprise Triangle (ASX: TEG: 50% and Operator); NZO (25%) andTalon Energy Ltd (ASX: TPD: 25%).
The AGM is not too far away. The balance sheet is getting stronger by the day.
Cash is a fraction under $0.19cps.
Market value of Cue stake is $24.1m AUD, so another $0.117 cps. (And they were sitting on $17m AUD in cash).
Means the rest of the company (reserves, forward production) the market is valuing at $0.063 per share.
The joys of having a majority shareholder......
Shane Jones is going to have a big spend up being in charge of reopening oil and gas in NZ.
I'm a fan of him. He will get things across the line.
I wonder if NZOG might re-think drilling Barque, with this change of government?? Do they still have the licence, I wonder? It had vast potential, around the same as the lamented, dry Ironbark.
Sideshow Bob - interesting analysis there, thanks, but it shows what a sad situation minor shareholders have been forced into.
I'm no longer a shareholder here, was for a long time, but have some CUE still.
One of the blow backs from the current tribal war in the Eastern Mediterranean is series of actions, such as ship seizures, against the economic interests of substantial beneficial owner shareholder of NZ Oil & Gas, Eyal Ofer.
It would be prudent for any premises of NZ Oil & Gas to increase security against the risk of becoming the focus of pro Palestinian protests.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
It's looking very much like NZO will be going into the AGM around record low share prices after having a successful year.
Setting the tone for the AGM.
The Sausage rolls have just been down graded to Saveloys with Pams tomato sauce.
Absolutely
The board is all OGOG except the 2 independents (who were elected by ogog ) .
Andrew does listen to minority shareholders and puts forward to the board our views and at the Cue AGM Alistair did give some hope to minority shareholders that action may be taken .
The sp was adversely impacted by the rights issue .
With the net back lng price going from 5 to 20 it turned out that less cash was needed from the rights issue.
The obvious why to remedy this is to start a buyback using a small portion of the cash surplus .
Having so much cash depreciating will not add value and is frustrating for minority shareholders .
Lets see if NZO is going to spread the love today.
Another day on the orchard today in the Bay of Plenty.
I will get to pass through Wellers on Friday though as I'm taking my boys to Queenstown for a pre xmas mountain biking trip.
I watched the AGM online.
I think that they are on the right track. And was super excited about them concentrating on the Australian and Indo gas markets. A big tick for the strategic plan going forward.
The appetite for ongoing investment in the high risk NZ market was almost zero.
A busy drilling schedule coming up.
Maybe the CEO needs to replace his examples of a Wellington gas BBQ with an indoor gas fire. That would come across as more realistic.
My email to Andrew Jefferies
FROM NZ OIL AND GAS
CEO ADDRESS TO ANNUAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS
'I look at this drone photo of our majestic Palm Valley gas field and look forward to our future, with
confidence and optimism. I hope you now understand why. The focus is delivering sustainable value
to our shareholders, providing reliable and environmentally responsible energy solutions, and
contributing positively to the global energy landscape.
I want to express my deepest gratitude to our shareholders for your ongoing support, to our team
for their relentless dedication, our Board for their wisdom, and to our partners for their
collaboration. Together, we are not just navigating the present; we are shaping a promising future
for New Zealand Oil & Gas.'
I would be extremely grateful if I received a dividend instead of a platitudinous narrative. Surely it's time to reward shareholders for their patience?
Agree. I fully believe in it the Australian strategy.
Why hang around NZ, why not move the entire business away from the risky NZ political environment.
Re dividends. Maybe the Board is right and pile every available dollar into drilling. But you need to be able to sell the vision to the market.
We want to become a billion dollar sustainable Company and this is how we are going to do it.
Undoubtedly they are heading the right way with no debt and large ever increasing cash flow that will fund exploration and development
It looks as if we,as minority shareholders who have stuck with the company for decades,financial supported the rights issue enabling amadeus are being neglected .
Many millions in the bank depreceating .
Increased value for all would cost little with a buyback-which is probably the most cost-efficient way of using a little of this unused cash .
Agree but it would do a lot more than just increase ogog shareholding by a small percentage .
I had no doubt it would improve liquidity .
If the buyback was announced to be ongoing according to spare cash we would get willing sellers and buyers back into the market.
At the moment there are no buyers at a sp less than half the Nta.
Knowing the sp is likely to substantially increase in the next year would bring investors back into the market .
If the sp increased I know many holders would start selling/trading
Buying back when so well under NTA makes sense as the best use of funds and boosting the pathetic SP. Although the market doesn't recognise NZO currently now, so likely make little difference but would at least add to trading volumes.
Just not sure of the Ofer 'creep' with takeover rules etc?? They've had one go so buyback may not be looked on favourably??
For example, a modest buyback with the equivalent of $0.01 per share into a buyback (so $2.24m), at say an average of $0.40 buyback price, would take Ofer from 71.7% to 73.5%. Even at $0.50 per share, they'd go to 73.2%.
Ever so closer to 90% where they can take everyone else out......
The only flaw in the thinking is the assumption that OGOG care about the market value and/or give a damn about minority holders.
As far as they are concerned they made a takeover offer some time back, we gave them the middle finger because we thought Ironbark was undervalued in their calcs.
Ironbark didnt work out and now things are as they are. They are operating NZO as if they owned it 100% privately. The SP could crash to 1c/share and it would make absolutely no difference to them.
So why would they use any available funds for a buyback that would only benefit the minority holders that they dont care about anyway?
That would be irrational. All FCF will be used towards projects.
And even if the projects are successful I would not expect a corresponding leap in SP due to the liquidity issues. If you buy NZO shares there is no guarantee you can get out easily in the future.
My two cents.