When you say 'our year' do you mean the share price will rise?
How is the company disappointing you? Or do you mean the share price?
Are you in tears?
Will you ever do any deep thinking?
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Nothing wrong with wanting to be a winner aye 69. Lets be honest, that’s why we got into all this in the first place. Patience.
Some great stuff here, how many have actually done what Ferg suggests??
I will take a guess that less than 0.5% of people who have read this post have actually looked through what is highlighted here.
I will also guess that 100% of people who have read this post have checked the share price the day they read the post.
From note 3.4 -
What is DMF?
An amount equal to a capped percentage of the occupation licence payment is charged by the Group as a management fee for the right of use and enjoy the common areas of the village. The deferred management fee is payable by the resident on termination of the ORA.
Well this is a technicality isn't it. It has already been paid.
Cheers, it's a shame that those (plus another company called Jackson Financial) make up just 25% of my portfolio. But that's just with hindsight, pretty happy holding the bulk of my NW in OCA even whilst my other positions are running up in price.
Even though I haven't realised any gains on those positions I still feel I should thank you for posting about Stellantis and Davita, as well forwarding that article to me where Bloomstan discusses Paramount.
So thank you very much, I appreciate your expertise and the help you've given me over the past year. :t_up:
What you are saying makes logical sense BaaBaa and as i've said before any intelligent pushback or dampening keeps things healthy. A great post by you as many have said already.
I interpret the point of your post about insto interest to directly mean the effect it has on the share price. Otherwise, why would we really care if instos like OCA or not.
Your post has inspired me to quantify what has happened to hopefully suggest guidance on what might happen to the share price. Sorry in advance Sailor…share price matters to me.
So firstly, we need to convert the aggregate mood of these institutions into hard numbers. To measure “instos interest” , what better measure than the price/ earnings ratio, PE.This surely describes the encompassing mood of the instos at the time, ( who are the market and set the SP) .
Here's a graph over OCAs listed life at the FY reporting periods of SP, PE and Unpat.
Note that i've reduced SP to a tenth to visually fit the graph …ie SP $1 = 10
https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com...Ac-woqP2SWKVaU
We can see, despite lumpy deliveries, falling Govt care funding , significant covid costs and disruption and all the dramas, EPS remains astonishingly flat.
Clearly from this , the SP has fallen entirely due to PE compression. In other words the mood of the instos has fallen to , and now is, rock bottom. It seems even cutting the dividend lately didn't make them more grumpy. They are already at maximum grumpiness.
So to get the SP up only one of 2 things are needed, either,
- An increase of EPS, or,
- A change from the instos mood. (increase of P/E)
I've posted a ton here on why I think EPS is right now improving a lot in this current HY we are currently nearly half through. I now expect EPs FY24 of 9.5c -10c .That's a meaningful jump in 2hy when you consider a flat 1HY result but the numbers are all there.
To me, it's all been solidly confirmed from the HY1 results season and many other also inputs including site visits. EPS will be substantially up primarily due to the 2HY sell down stage of some really cool stuff , good volumes of it and improved Govt care funding. This is also sustainable.
So for fun I've also added my Forecast FY24 EPS value in and then also an artistic stab at the PE upgraded to 12.
12 Seems reasonable to me with new warmth in the property cycle coupled with a rerating for becoming cashflow positive, reducing debt , higher EPS , how strong HY2 will be and then just generally , the mood even now is sooooo much better than 6 months ago on every front.
Every difficulty OCA has encountered for the last 5 years has now been overcome or turned to relative improvement. May I encourage anyone to name any that havent?
We have all observed SP does not change much at all on any reporting day. Therefore things are generally well anticipated by the instos, both the EPS and their mood too. From this , is my own expectation that we should see a material rise , but unorderly, of SP before May 2024 in anticipation of better times.
This just may have already started, looking at the divergence of SP between ARV and OCA of the recent weeks.
Andrew Brenton who has compounded at 20% CAGR for 25 years.
'There are lots of examples of companies we own who's share price haven't gone anywhere for many years and we've never worried about it, the US companies that I mentioned that we added to the portfolio 6 years ago, 6 years later and the share price is the same. It doesn't bother us. I would bother us if the company wasn't doing well, but what we do is we own a lot more of those companies today than we did 5 to 6 years ago and at some point, some day, the share price will go up and that's been our experience for 25 years and I will be the case in the next 25 years'
20% CAGR for 25 years.
So why would it bother the Maverick?
Well I'll be, relative share price performance of the NZ RV's, NZX50 and DJUSRE, since OCA bottomed in April 2023. https://invst.ly/12ls84