U all can say whatever fundamentals , NTA, bla bla bla....at the end....the market decides the SP .... N yes....69c
Printable View
U all can say whatever fundamentals , NTA, bla bla bla....at the end....the market decides the SP .... N yes....69c
I am astounded that this post has not generated any discussion or debate. Also disappointed nobody has had a crack at valuing this case as Mav asked and I seconded.
This is one of, if not the best post ever on OCA. It really forces one to view from a different angle and see the model for what it is, rather than obscured by cash flow timing.
This case is extremely conservative and assumes that they stop investing for growth, value creative growth I might add.
Well what is the company as hypothesised by Mav worth?
An inflation protected, steady, predictable and conservative flow of income of 30c a share, with visibility well into the future? Has to be worth at least 18 x.
So that would be $5.40 a share in 8 years... a CAGR of 30%.
But of course it won't play out like this, the numbers will be far better, perhaps obscured somewhat as they are now.
Why do we have this opportunity and potential world class CAGR?
Because the share price is LOW.
The very same reason you're all crying into your milk.
And in 8 years time, Arie will still be working. Why is that?
Sounds like a desperate post.
Anyone who has invested in this stock in the last few years has lost their shirt.
That's not to say now that it's not a good investment as it has now lost so much value that it might do well in the future. I.e the price is looking attractive.
As said by many on on many occasions, entry key is critical.
We're you spurting the same value proposition when it was twice the price or more?
Anyhoo I think it does look relatively compelling now.
If they cash up and exit the business they will have no float.
For gods sake this is surely obvious?
This was not his point at all. We don't want a cash float.... we want a float invested at high rates of return and generating even more float....
He was just pointing out what could happen if they chose not to grow any more.
No you just weren't perceptive enough to realise the obvious. I will be a lot wealthier by not ignoring the share price, or market cap.
Was it Charlie Monger that stated value has to be knowable or something along those lines?
Well the market obviously doesn't know it, otherwise the share price or I prefer market cap, oh yes that little number that actually values a company, would reflect it.
That's not to say the potential value isn't there but again the only way to realise this POTENTIAL value is through the share price.
You make out that this is pretty much a risk free trade. It isn't. Management are always capable of stuffing something up and then all you have done is doubled down on a dog.
I think you're talking about Charlie Munger?
Wrong, market cap does NOT value a company.
That is your job as an investor.
The ENTIRE POINT is that you NEVER take instruction from the market.
Occasionally the market - will give you opportunities to take advantage of but will NEVER provide you with a valuation.
Man you are an amateur.
Please explain ONE thing for me Day Trader
If as you say, the market cap values an company...
How can the value of all these businesses swing around by so much so often? How can the value of some of the biggest and strongest businesses in the world change by hundreds of percent in a year?
How can the value of Davita change by billions or nearly 50% in a few weeks?
Or is it that they DONT?
The entire point of all investing is that the market cap does not value the company.
The value is the the net future cash flows discounted to today.
You do NOT take instruction from Mr Market.
You take advantage of him.