You can take a donkey to water, but you cannot make him drink.
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You can take a donkey to water, but you cannot make him drink.
Enumerate in earlier posts was not a supporter of SCF but following some announcements he saw some value with risk in scfha's. He also was not approving of AH 's and Aorangi's statutory management.
Enter the serial posters with a mission to rubbish anyone or anything remotely supportive of SCF.
The fact that the SFO hedged their bets by saying their investigations do not necessarily mean a prosecution will result and they had not even spoken to AH to hear what he had to say was ignored.
Given that all media coverage is basically repetition with very little new information forthcoming and generally unfavourable to SCF it is not surprising anyone with an interest in buying in is delaying decision making to drive as hard a bargain as possible. If SCF goes to the wall they will have certainly
been pushed there.
westerly
Westerly - thats just a nonsense. Wherever SCF end up they will have got their under their own steam. Its worth pointing out though that it is people like me who are helping SCF in a positive sense. I'm after-all out working and paying taxes which is enabling existing debenture holders to be repaid their investments. They get to sleep easy at night thanks to my labour. New investors also get to sleep easily till late next year as I'll continue to work to create the taxes to fund the deposit guarantee scheme. I get to sleep well at night knowing my little bit is being done - so its probably not so much a metamorhosis but a symbiotic relationship.
This is absolutely true. I felt that, at the time, SCF was in denial of the severity of it's problems and that the Trust Deed of the SCFHA was particularly weak in terms of rights of redress in the event the dividend payments were suspended.
My view, now, is that Sandy Maier has galvanised SCF management attention on the core issues. I acknowledge the still significant risks - but I do not assess them to be insurmountable.
SCF is the largest of the NZ finance companies. It's customers and it's community stakeholders see value in it and want it to stand. The combination of size, history, value - all add up to a strong will to see SCF survive. Where there is a will ... there is a way.
The case against SCF, on this thread, is basically unintelligent. Barracking slogans does not defeat a reasoned argument.
It is also not intelligent investment to oversubscribe to risk and fear at the expense of a measured understand of risks.
For those holding SCFHA ... and the trading volumes are completely insignificant compared with the held volumes ... I am very keen to put forward a reasoned cased that selling at 15 cents might fail to acknowledge the likely outcome dictated by cold logic. These are fearful times ... but you fail if you make fear your master.
minimoke - I get the feeling that westerly doesn't really appreciate that SCF prob been going to the wall (won't say insolvent cause that is only conjecture and speculation) for a year or so
I doubt that recent actions by the Stat man, SFO, minimoke, roger and balance have had any bearing on the ultimate outcome - one thing none of those mentioned have paraded down the main street of Timaru
I think Westerly makes some good points.
The Statutory Management of Allan Hubbard has had a material effect on the recovery prospects of SCF. We are now months into the process. Extraordinary powers have been granted to the Statutory Manager - in the defence of the public interest. We have not had any demonstration of any threat to the public interest ... after all this time ... after extraordinary powers of investigation were granted. No charges ... no hint of charges ... just the implication that Simon Botherway might be conducting a personal vendetta and that Jane Diplock is a fool and Simon Power has lost all sense of perspective and Adam Feeley fancies himself as an American style District Attorney summoning Grand Jury inquisitions at even a hint of impropriety.
At one level, I cannot blame the bureaucrats. They reflect the will of their masters. Central government has turned nasty - in terms of prosecution. Even the MED Radio Frequency unit is considering prosecuting a local radio station that inadvertently broadcast on the Police band due to an equipment failure. No deliberate malice ... an equipment fault ... leading to a prosecution ... leading to the shutdown of a small community radio station.
The failure of the first round of Feltex director prosecutions is a signal on how the courts will treat the new political enthusiasm for "shutting the gate after the horse has bolted".
LOL - how did the hundreds of millions of SCF's bad book come about? Nothing to do with AH of course - it's all somebody else's fault.
Those bad dudes should not have borrowed money off SCF - how was SCF to know that the loans will go bad?
And the orgy of related party transactions which took place in 2008 and 2009? Nothing wrong with that too - it's Michael Cullen's fault for giving a government guarantee to SCF so that AH was able to shift money between SCF and related entities.
AH is blameless - everything he does is and has been kosher.
Happy? AH cultists?
Thanks, guys, I just had the best laugh I have had in a while!
LOL - Yeah Lachie McLeod is the best and most astutue lending manager in New Zealand and his world class loan approval and risk management proceedures have nothing to do with the problems SCF are in.
When will people wake up and smell the coffee and realise that SCF have had extremly poor risk assessment and lending management policies and Lachie was completly blind to the impending wall of defaults brought about by the GFC. He thought, here's a wall of money coming in from the GG approval in late 2008, we MUST lend it out, she'll be right and I'll collect my massive bonus for new lending. The fact that the GFC was allready in full effect in late 2008 didn't seem to worry him at all. The on-going effects from all this poorly controlled lending will continue for many reporting seasons to come, if there are any.
Looks like things might be kosher after all? Powerless and Bothersome maybe not so kosher....
"Cabinet is bracing itself for the possibility that the Serious Fraud Office's investigation into the affairs of South Canterbury Finance founder Allan Hubbard will not find any evidence of complex fraud."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10665155
Hi Hamdrew,
Interesting article - are they 'softening up' the media for a potential back down? If not, what is the purpose of such a statement from the govt when they are only a week away from a preliminary report? Not sure myself.
BTW, be careful when you post links - the interface automatically adds the HTTP:// for you, which means if you then paste in the full URL it all goes pear shaped:
I usually copy the whole URL from my browser, and paste over the pre-populated bit in the web interface to avoid that happening.
Alan.