Competition Increasing Internationally
The announcement of China Eastern starting seasonal flights from their hub of Shanghai to Auckland is not good news. The potential China market is large enough for multiple players but I am not sure how Air NZ will go long term without a strategic alliance like which they have with Cathay Pacific & Singapore Airlines.
Also, Qantas is refocussing on the US market which is the one international sector it dominates. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...ing-us-routes/
Air NZ has a monopoly on NZ -> US flights and significant PAX that fly Australia -> Auckland -> LAX/SFO/VYR. This works really well for people flying from Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth who get a short layover to rest their legs in Auckland and a shorter flight segment to the US. It also works very well for anyone with San Francisco or Vancouver as their departure or destination as Qantas and Virgin Australia do not fly to either. These PAX also help Air NZ on the trans tasman.
The last 3 times I have flown either SFO or LAX to Auckland the planes have been packed (99% capacity) with maybe a third using Auckland as a layover on the way to or from Australia. If Qantas flies to any new US destinations it will hurt Air NZ.
Thus while the US is a goldmine for Air NZ, which is putting more capacity into it (triple daily to LAX!!), can it last?