So NZ won't be clean and green...
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So NZ won't be clean and green...
sunset industry , even z say in there presentations peak petrol is not far away. dont forget more discount competitors are expanding in the market. it was a bounce trade only
Only 26% of fuel sales are petrol. Aviation fuel sales continue to grow at a compound rate of 5-6% per annum. Diesel sales are also growing.
By the time dividends start to tail off on the balance of probabilities it won't be a problem for me...more likely my kids problem.
Electric cars en masse with a decent range at a price the vast majority of Kiwi's can afford is further off in the future that most people reckon, well, that's my bet anyway...
Volkswagen cheapish electric cars...
https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/vw-ne...-price-report/
U.S$30,000 = approx. $65,000 - $70,000 Kiwi inclusive of GST by the time Giltrap as the distributor gets their greedy paws on it.
You can buy a new well regarded (eg Toyota Corolla / Honda Civic) similar sized ICE engine car for less than half that money and have no range anxiety. Even then I think most Kiwi buyers of vehicles this size buy them second hand. Most popular price range last time I checked for the average person is a second hand buy in the range of $12,000 - $15,000. Plenty of that type of business still to be done in that price range well into the 2040's in my opinion.
Also its a while off but...http://aviationnews.eu/news/2017/09/...-haul-flights/
Its just not possible to condense enough energy into a large scale passenger plane with batteries. The weight kills it before it gets off the ground. This is the stuff or airline exec's with more time on their hands than they know what to do with and a guilty conscience for burning so much fuel. Chris Luxon another closet greenie with too much time on his hands so is dabbling with this folly too. I get it, you think this is a sunset industry. There's going to be very strong twilight for many decades to come, you read it here from me first. https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...015/consensus/
Average broker valuation $7.14
Its interesting alright and thats one reason humans are at the top , innovation, invention,improvements, efficiency ,and pollution in spades and right now those first three are necessities.The future for aviation is exciting as we have been cornered by our own spoilage into coming up with the mother of many inventions for a sustainable future.
I get it, you think this is a sunset industry. There's going to be very strong twilight for many decades to come, you read it here from me first.https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...015/consensus/..
I own some Z shares.
I am just excited by all the new possibilities of this..
Yes i went to a ZEL presentation today with Mike Bennetts and really liked their attitude to the environment and acceptance of global warming and actions we all have to take, very responsible and genuine about this. Mentioned Disrupter in a disruptive mkt ,purchase Flick , Biodiesel etc.
52% of fuel sales are to commercial.
$40 million savings to be made in the next two years from efficiencies/synergies gained in Chevron, Caltex purchase.
2 or 3 decades plus before EV use starts making an impact ( from Mike B,i hope take up is much sooner myself).
Fraser Whineray CEO of Mercury was also very motivated about global warming and excited about the ops for his company.
Thanks for sharing. Market seems very competitive with fuel prices now. Just got a fill of 91 Octane at just $1.99.9 inclusive of the 11.5 cents per liter Auckland reginal fuel tax rort.
On the other side of the ledger its interesting to note that brokers are around 55 cps fully imputed dividend for FY21 so at $5.60 that's (55 / 0.72) / 560 = 13.6% yield.
Commerce Commission says petrol pricing study at least a year away and won't be swayed by political rhetoric. https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/commerce...tical-rhetoric
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news...cid=spartandhp
Interesting. Maybe people want a bathroom break and /or snack / coffee with their fuel after all ? I think the other issue is its a hard road to hoe getting premium sites for these discount players after all its not really worth ones time or fuel to go too far out of their way for discounted fuel.
yeh you would think crowdsharing tech such as gaspy would affect more peoples decisions but the margins are relatively trivial on many occasions and not enough to compensate for needing a moro bar or a dump.
the number of staff working for Waitomo is a quarter of Z ! and they buy directly off Mobil so really just a reseller.
I notice recently that Gull in Pakuranga have gone to a self service/pay at pump station - "shop" has been shut up, so you can't get your moro bar etc and subsequently the price is about 10 cents less than most others around.
Our local Gull just up the road did the same quite a few months ago. They start at 10 cents per liter cheaper but you will see 2 x 3 cent increases come on at about the 6 and 9 week mark irrespective of what the oil price and exchange rates are doing. The real difference will be considerably less than 10 cents per liter after a few months, mark my words. On the other hand by waiting for the real and sustained every week 10 cents per liter off days, (like 73% of people do) the major retailers run when combined with their other incentives such as fly buys for Z or Mobil Smiles for Mobil in the medium term you're better off sticking with the bigger brands and spend the real savings on that mars bar and coffee.
You might not get your10c off days for a while if the trucks go on strike.
more headwinds for z - this will hurt them bad
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...expansion.html
Wow, a dozen extra stations in the next couple of years...I am sure Z shareholders are cuddling their teddy bears in fear lol
As for the petrol price enquiry, all it will show is the Government are the main cause of petrol price increases with their rampant additional fuel excise levies and regional fuel tax.
Most consumers buy fuel on location and price. There is literally no point driving more than a few kilometers out of your way and back again for cheaper fuel as any further you are simply chasing your tail in terms of trying to save money. It is very difficult for new entrants to get good sites near densely populated area's. Case in point is the Waitomo gas station on the way to Waiuku south of Auckland. You would only know about it if you lived in this relatively sparsely populated area way out the back of Karaka on the way to the old Kingseat area which is not the main route to Waiuku or Pukekohe. I drove past the other day and it was very small with no services, no cover over the site and no toilet I am sure. I wanted an ice-cream and a bathroom break and some fuel. Do you think I stopped ? Guess what, the main centers in New Zealand are heavily built up...how easy is it to get new sites and infrastructure in place...I rest my case.
Maybe thats their point of difference they could market.
"Trim Down With Waitomo, Temptation Free!"
“You don’t want to be the company left behind,” he said. “You don’t want to be the polluter that makes the call that ‘we’re not going to change.’”
"Z Energy, the country’s biggest fuel retailer, is aiming to reduce its operational carbon emission by 30 percent by 2020. It has also set itself a goal of being a leader in New Zealand’s decarbonisation efforts."
Thanks beagle , they have been genuine about their responsibilities environmental wise for a while. Its a challenge they are open minded to tackle. A fast changing disruptive field.I did read somewhere recently that re 90% of current EV owners charge at home so no mars bar add ons there atpit.
Good question. Had an interesting discussion with a heavy truck operator during a casual conversation at Subway in Taupo last summer. He freely admitted the transport industry had gamed the system by all their submissions that really heavy trucks wouldn't damage the roads because if super heavy loads were allowed there would be less trucks on the road and hence less damage.
I got the impression that heavy trucks are doing tremendous damage to our national roading system, especially anything over 40 tons and we need to have another look at lowering the weight limits and looking at road user charges again for heavy vehicles. Fuel levies have been increasing at a much faster rate than inflation and Cindy's Kindy are planning to accelerate that at an even faster pace during their tenure. I think a substantial part of the fuel levy is simply being syphoned off into the government coffers and not being spent on roads.
**** happens ....bad time of year though
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/109...in-at-the-pump
Wouldn't happen to EVs though
This must be close to the bottom at $5.35. 4 Traders ave target price is $7.15 which is 33.6% difference.
I bought some in Nov @ $5.30 (10% of my portfolio), picked up the dividend & am now thinking of adding a few more.
Maybe a stock for 2019. Any thoughts?
Fuel is a consumer staple and people will buy it in good times and bad. Demand is very inelastic (sticky, and doesn't respond much at all) to either the price or economic cycle. Airline jet fuel consumption will continue to grow strongly over time.
Petrol makes up only 26% of sales so EV impact (due to price and range issues) will be very, very gradual and a LOT less than some people are thinking. I believe at the current price the forward gross yield is about 15%. Consumer staples have traditionally been a very good place to weather the storm in a bear market. I have this in my portfolio and as a stock pick for the 2019 share trader competition.
I am not buying any stocks at present (55% cash in my portfolio at present and will not deploy any at this stage) but will reevaluate the lie of the land in a few weeks.
We're in exactly the same boat except my "thinking of adding a few more" was taken away from me late yesterday when an old and forgotten small order was activated :-) PE now below 7 and a very healthy fully imputed dividend. No idea where the bottom is but watching with great interest and will be adding more
Yes ,would like to add some more to ZEL and VEA (shell brand in Aus) and CTX (has caltex brand)looks great cyclic safe harbour buying with a decent yield too; in this mkt
I topped up last week at 560, also bought NZR at 228 and AIR at 303. So, a bit of diversification in fuel all with good dividends in today's world.
Thanks for the comments. Just bought at $5.35. Is now 18.8% of my portfolio.
Averaging in over the year would be my way if i was disciplined enough.
I would like to top up on these also, But reading things like this from the NZR bond issue are making me cautious...
EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMEFollowing the expiry of the Negotiated GreenhouseAgreement on 31 December 2022, Refining NZ will facethe prospect of full exposure to the New Zealand EmissionsTrading Scheme (NZ ETS) via a charge on Refining NZ’s directand indirect CO2 emissions. As Refining NZ’s operations areenergy intensive, full exposure to the NZ ETS could significantlyreduce Refining NZ’s competitiveness and ultimately it’sfinancial viability.
Surprised about the enthusiasm for ZEL
TA really sucks .....so bad it would turn most off