ones a real business the other is discretionary..
hardly a fair race.
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ones a real business the other is discretionary..
hardly a fair race.
Rawz - suppose you've upped your full year forecast .... NPAT $60m?
Jeez that puts MHJ on a PE of about 8 ....and if we do it the way like doing it and forget about the cash it's PE is just over 7
I just might get tempted ....tempted and not based on fundamentals is just being seduced
Before today i had $42.3m based on lower margins so down from $45.2m last year.
Probably still around mid $40m's thou?
why not back up the P&L items and use.. EBIDA.
"i think that, every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the words bull**** earnings"
LOL- Charlie Munger
EBIDA is not EBITDA.
In this case would rather take a hard look at the reported P&L items.
NPAT is great but would rather in this case use EBIDA.
I personally never take depreciation or amortization out of any calculation unless i am calculating basic debt servicing ability.
EV/EBITDA, EV/EBITA,EV/EBIT all have there place but its gotten harder to do the EV calc with IFRS changes. Used to be you took market capitalisation and added debt & equivalents less surplus cash, now you need to add lease liabilities as rent no longer included above the EBITDA line. Then it also became the norm for EBItDA to exclude anything mgmt deemed abnormal
Brokers and companies love ebitda because it makes earnings sound bigger. I’ve been an EBIT man as depreciation is real. And npat just easier and better understood
Increase in cash position should mean an increase in DIV or a special surely.
Agreed A is real but it depends on life time of assets and that can vary business to business class.
Every investor may choose their view.
In this case prefer to take it out in the short term.
IE... next 24 months.
Once again the accounting PHD's have complicated or over complicated the theory and leads to contamination of the accounting data.
This thing is starting to look like a bit of a cash cow..
A pied piper and the customers in the loyalty program singing along behind..
A 100,000 taken out on from the sell side..
Shareclarity DCF values are usually so pessimistic …like They just revised SUM up to $8.72
Jeez their MHJ DCF is A$1.37 …about NZ$1.50
That’s some endorsement
I have found after each positive update the SP sits for a couple of days before it grinds back up
Look at the aussie's asleep at the wheel ?
Its only MHJ... ASX is a big market..
Its a great result far beyond expectations for this once beleaguered little bling outfit...
very exciting result though ..
lot of focus these days on metals since some source may be limited by sanctions.
since it now more efficient it could beat 1.70 now as the market priced it there back in 2016.
Image another year of the same performance.. Staggering increase in CASH. $$$$$$
I couldn’t quite understand the recent sell off. This announcement was predictable. Like for like sales includes trading days which is why that is up 4.8% vs overall 11% increase I.e. there are more trading days hence the 11% increase but like for like ignored more trading days. This will be a driver on net margins, gross margin expansion is an extra gift.
Market probably not believing the performance could continue.
But the EBIT as FM has mentioned really showed in 21 just how well they were performing.
Appear they still are!!!
bit of a stand off today in MHJ trading.
centing to the up side.
133.
no rush in the inflation world to buy jewellers shares it appears.
Friday 22, MHJ over 120,000 vol.
Nice support.
Canadian Feb retail sales released: “Jewelry, luggage & leather goods” category up 17% year on year.
(they also gave an uncommon early preview of March data - which presently indicates annual retail sales growth continues)
for context, MHJ has already released its trading update for this period, and there revenue in Canada was up 42% in Q1.
Lots of blue ocean in Canada still for MHJ:
Australia population: 26 million, MHJ Q1 Australian revenue: $71.6m AUD = $2.75c per capita
Canada population: 38 million, MHJ Q1 Canadian revenue: $30.9m CAD = $0.81c per capita
NZ population: 5.1 million, MHJ Q1 NZ revenue: $28.1m NZD = $5.51c per capita
(I’m not expecting NZ level of penetration, but getting anywhere close to the Australian level would be a reasonable goal)
Spooky timing: MHJ announces it has received a $12 million payment for its finance book in Canada:
(the cash pile continues to mount)
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...977/369228.pdf\
Quote:
26 April 2022ASX AND NZX ANNOUNCEMENT Sale of Canadian Consumer Credit Book
Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) is pleased to announce it has agreed to the sale of its in-house Canadian credit receivables to Canadian consumer credit provider, Flexiti Financial Inc. (“Flexiti”), with an effective date of 31 May 2022.
MHJ has partnered with Flexiti for the provision of third-party consumer credit across MHJ’s 85 store Canadian network, and in a global first for MHJ, offering long term credit applications on-line.
Cash sale proceeds currently estimated at approximately A$12m will be received in early June 2022, based on the 31 May 2022 book balance. This sale further enhances the Company’s balance sheet, while also strengthening its cash position.
Commenting on the sale, Managing Director and CEO of Michael Hill International Limited, Daniel Bracken said:
“This strategic partnership with Flexiti presents a significant opportunity to expand and enhance our Canadian offering, with access to a broader customer base. We look forward to enhancing this important relationship with Flexiti, which provides a further growth and productivity lever for our already highly performing Canadian business.”
This announcement is authorised for release by the Board. ENDS
more money in the BANK. with no cap ex in sight wonder what the balance sheet pile will end up at.
:t_up:
This one-off $12 million payment will basically cover the dividend payment made during this half year.
Cash as a percentage of market cap at the next earnings will be over 25% (based on todays market cap of ~$500m), meaning the true (excluding cash) earnings multiple is going to be somewhere closer to 7-8x
lets hope they dont buy another chain.
Down 5c so far today - very strange reaction.
Although that’s on less than $10k shares traded so almost no volume.
WHS up ..... Bling is not going to be foremost on investors minds.
Once again it will be a surprise if they can keep puck'in it in the net.
buyers lining up at low 1.20's
Jeez …the soon to be opened Costco in Auckland is going to sell ‘high quality jewellery and watches’
lets face its a highly competitive world wide business and it's a miracle they have bounced back to this level.
hope they consolidate the business at this point and dont buy anything else unless its a BARGAIN.
Dont buy unless it is a BARGAIN... nice and subtle. Then literally everyone gets a bargain
yup and dont buy it because its a BARGAIN for a reason...
one dollar on the charts looking good..unless they release another out of the rink update in june july.
If it goes to $1 ill make this my top holding again as youll be buying future earnings at an incredible price
1;just cant see it. Somehow they have pied piper the customers.
RAWS; "MHJ a buy when it holds $100m cash on the balance sheet."
its a worry what they are going to do with it. A big worry.
R F is there now and dont think he will let that happen. Dont like when they say looking to buy another Celtic Art Maker.
They dont have the record of success at such.
They are operating a bit differently now, see the new dividend policy recently announced of returning 50%-75% of net income as dividends.
Should be paying a Special DIV.
POUND the TABLE.
SPECIAL DIV!
SPECIAL DIV!!
SPECIAL DIV!!!
Dont think the HILLS would go for it.
Special DIV would suite them also.
on issue only 388 million and say 50 million dollar buyback?
better off to up the DIV and Special Div on top of it.
unless sales fall off a cliff its very under valued by the inflation wild fires.
Signet must have a dud brand or two they thinking of hocking off ….MHJ might see Peoples Jewellers as a good fit and buy them.
with the DOOMS Day Book coming for the wealthy, the Hills might move somewhere.
Special Div big time and send if off shore from AUS .
Its hide the Jewels time coming soon.
https://apnews.com/article/business-...7ae03ae3d3a587
SP just slipped below 1.20.
New div policy implies $35m divie - less $13m already paid - leaves $22m to be paid re F22
Still have $80m in bank - do a $60m buyback
Say average cost $1.30 that's 46 million shares (might need to a prorata sort of deal and return cash and cancel shares)
Reduces number of shares to about 340 million
F23 earnings $50m --- ie a EPS of 14.5 cents (v 12.8 based on current number of shares) ... and shareprice in years time $2.00
So from $1.20 odd get another 3 more divies totalling 20 cents and equivalent of 16 cents from buyback .... and late next year the shares you still have worth 2 bucks
What can go wrong .... nothing
I think we need to give the good people at MHJ a bit more credit.. Daniel Bracken (CEO) joined Nov 2018 and together with his buddy, Andrew Lowe (CFO) they have overseen a very prudent restructure of the company. They closed 27 stores and have been great custodians of the balance sheet taking borrowings from -$27m to a cash pile of $100m (ish) in this time. This is whilst navigating an unprecedented global pandemic.
They have worked very hard to build that war chest and I dont think they are going to spend it willy nilly on some grand acquisition. It doesnt fit the profile and historic actions of management.
I am guessing it is going to be a small bolt on acquisition in a new market that they can grow.
The cash pile is worth about 25 cents. remove that and MHJ is trading on 7.7 p/e. It is cheap and maybe it deserves to be given the cost of living crisis... maybe not.. people thought MHJ wouldnt sell any jewelry during the lock downs yet MHJ time after time surprised the market and produced amazing numbers. People now saying customers are only ever going to buy consumer staples.. MHJ will continue to sell trinkets folks.. you better believe it. There is always another birthday, engagement, anniversary, wedding and no matter how much Beagle tells you a can of baked beans from the WHS is the new gift for todays times.. I can promise you its not lol
That Signet we been mentioning (SIG.NYSE) has sales of US$7.8 bilion and $735m profit
That trades on a trailing PE of 5.7 and forward PE of 6.1
Makes MHJ expensive lol ..... but maybe it's just that the world is not really attracted to jewellers as an investment
And SIG are returning zillions to shareholders to sort of their balance sheet
In the DARK ages and some might say in parts of europe a new Dark age has reappeared; the Celts were busy as ever making trinkets and maybe in times of trouble people actually feel better wearing it!!!
One arts historian and commentator even decided that the Dark Ages were not so Dark because of the quality of the Jewellery being crafted.
Waldemar Januszczak.
Mothers Day good for Michael Hill in this part of the world …..prob helped last month in other parts.
hard to find hard data on this, but I recall hearing quite a bit about how the wedding industry is ramping back up now globally with a big surge due to many weddings having been delayed over the last couple of years now going ahead in 2022 & 2023. Can definitely see this in NZ & OZ as many waited until borders were reopened for overseas guests, and for local gathering limits to be removed.
I have no idea how much business jewelers get from wedding band sets (and engagement rings I guess), but I presume its substantial.
This is not a BUY right now .. wait for a 100....
NOT a BUY...
:eek2:
They arnt going to pay a special...no buyback.. no new stores...
Nothing to see here... nothing.. NADA
Strong day in MHJ.
what on earth are the retail investors thinking. Inflation fires everywhere all over the globe.
This is a terrible risk.
There will be NO increase in the DIV.
Do you have inside info on MHJ plans Waltzing? Those are rather definitive statements to make if based on opinion.
meanwhile data says retail spending last month remains healthy:
Spending through Worldline's payments network amongst the rest of the core retail sector was $2.9 billion in April - up 4.1 per cent on the same time last year and 15.4 per cent on April 2019.
Worldline said these growth rates were similar to those seen in the previous five months.
"Spending in the rest of the Core Retail sector, which overall is far larger than Hospitality, is maintaining a growth momentum at present, at least in terms of total dollars being spent," Putnam said.
He said the average value of a payment transaction had increased since 12-months ago - consistent with generally higher prices.
The average value of April transactions through all core retail merchants in Worldline's network (excluding Hospitality) was $52.84, a 8.9 per cent increase since April last year and 11 per cent since April 2019.
"In April this year we saw spending at merchants selling discretionary products – such as clothing and footwear, or electrical goods – showing growth patterns very similar to earlier months, suggesting that any inflation-induced cutbacks in spending have been modest so far."
Do you have inside info on MHJ plans Waltzing? Those are rather definitive statements to make if based on opinion.
My thoughts exactly LEK Seems to write what just comes to mind with out any base to it or maybe he does have inside knowledge on MHJ dividend plans. Maybe uncle Michael:)
Just joking... hoping that the price will sell off in inflation panic but no sellers!!
Notice that NZ retail hasnt sold off today much at all.
The balance sheet alone adds value to the SP but one always hope the SHAZ doesnt actually read the Financial balance sheet sections.
Even if sales drop off the DIV will be maintained one thinks.
Cant we scare the SHAZ into selling? Like one economics commentator on CNBC commented about 4 percent required and talking about Volker....
Does the SHAZ even remember the 1970's.
Its the next 6 months thats the great unknown not April data.
Notice MR B has increased cash and will be hoping for some dismal data appearing in the next 6 to 12 months.
Hi there, TAX question about MHJ dividends:
if you own MHJ on the NZX, are dividends treated tax wise as any other NZ company
or is there a difference because it is headquartered in Brisbane??
Dividends are treated as any other NZ company.
MHJ has its primary listing on the ASX and its secondary listing on the NZX but has fully imputed NZ dividends.
For Australian tax payers there are no franking credits at the moment, sad for them.
Reason is it looks as though MHJ load all head office overheads onto the Australian operation to reduce overall tax bill. Australian company tax rate 30%,NZ 28%) But I could be wrong about that.
Warren Buffett said at the Birkshire Hathaway annual meeting the other day that jewelry businesses are usually terrible businesses but post covid they have all made super profits because of all the stimulus. People had so much money that they didnt know what to do with it.. jewelry business didnt even need to run sales and inventory days reduced massively because people were walking in, buying and walking out.
Obviously he's not including our MHJ in this generalization. Right?
Special DIV on this is a must.
Nope.
MHJ revenue was higher pre-pandemic (18 & 19) than in either of the pandemic impacted completed financial years (20 & 21).
Australia, New Zealand & Canada did not have any helicopter payments to consumers (only support payments in form of wage subsidies, and extended/upgraded unemployment benefits to those that lost their jobs). Meanwhile in the USA everybody received stimulus checks and there was also a massive amount extra given in the form of child tax credits (now finished).
So while Buffett was no doubt correct about USA jewelry chains, it did not apply to MHJ at all.
Maybe a case of once being a market pariah always a market pariah ....unloved and unwanted
Just give us a 30 cent dividend and be done with it
just have to wait for the next results the markets in a funk and it wont change any time soon..
turning out that shares are more STABLE than crypto.
real companies behind shares..
share needs to test underlying channel of 100 but needs a final sell off on the global markets.
cant see it though as investors will be buying at or near the 100 mark as stated by RAWZ.
"eps of $0.38 "
that would be AMAZING!
In total over 3 years.. not per year. Now that would be amazing.!!
Maybe one day $0.38 pa.. once this big $100m acquisition is announced and the piggy bank is emptied.. add in a bit of growth.. could get there
Hopefully they dont buy anything other than new products to sell.
MHJ sponser of Dancing with Stars... prancing with the stars...
Got say some of the ballroom looks more like rock and roll...
but hey its all good advertising for MHJ!!!!
Big day of trading support for MHJ today..
Shock inflation figures to come out across the globe this month and next... and the month after...
100 is the best price here....nothing more....RISK is OFF.... OFF
A bit about why MHJ is a great investment in this article
https://pinnacleinvestment.com/is-th...-just-fantasy/
W(n) they are talking their own book!!!!
Having said that MHJ is a cash flow positive company and profitable. Hmm maybe 1.10 ish is a reasonable price but its cyclical and that means their share price should get pummelled until the numbers say otherwise.
that last set of numbers was just before the world went upside down....
the great thing about markets is that they repeat themselves every 5 to 10 years.
YMMW
Youve Moved the MARKET WINNER(n)
please no more of those posts......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpYEJx7PkWE
YES they have been buying FPH.... 10 years late....
lets hope they ignore MHJ.....
Think Walmart here people... dont get carried away...
its a RISK OFF market....:t_up:
freight charges, electricity , rent increases, wages increases, starving staff.
Strikes combined with race protests and striking hockey players....
RISK OFF...
MHJ just seems to defy the world of negative news...
7 day range 107 to 120...
impossible to know what this stock will do next....
Well it was only last month they said their march quarter revenue was up 11% - and at better gross margins - than the comparable year earlier period, despite many lost trading days due to Covid disruptions.
Also got a mini-windfall from selling the Canadian credit book.
this stock is ridiculously cheap considering its ex-cash value, and i take my hat off to anyone who added at 1.07 last week - got a hell of a deal.
"1.07 last week - got a hell of a deal."
they sure did and it good see at least one retail stock holding up its SP in what has to seen as very severe pressures.
it can be a bit woobly and low 110 to 115 might turn up again....hopefully
Gosh still holding up... what are those silly Canucks thinking ..
2 Portfolios have some in them. Not at 107.
However if sub 110 comes up again in the next 6 months and the Macro environment has not turned into a major crash we will probably add some to another Portfolio.
But Euro stocks are on the Radar now that Sweden and Finland havnt been invaded....
As one fellow said in Moscow "waving Nukes at Finland is just silly"
Gosh well maybe St Petersburg will be open for Sydney Tourist and Tourist from China before we know it.
Tourism will pick up in the Baltic's.
Even NZ may soon have a pick up in the next 2 to 3 years with Tourism and Retail Stocks will see an up turn in business.
It always was a buy/hold because of the cash pile. Trading so cheap. $40m profit through a recession I reckon
"Trading so cheap"
Cramer now thinks the same of that other big Jewel operation.. but that chart still looks a bit sloppy.
Still he knows the US markets.