I remember this post,what a difference a few days make aye:cool:
Printable View
CEO address and further land acquisition announced.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/249914
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/249915
I wonder how the boys are going with there sausy rolls.
Well as we haven't herd from them:t_up:
I reckon it's couta's round :)
Yep, about $2m has gone through at $3.48. I reckon a natural support will form at $3.50
lagging behind RYM though
Indeed. Couta on his way to airport with Roger & Forest. Nobody in a state to seriously comment
at moment though :). Except to say its basically steady as she goes but internalisation going slower than we were all hoping for. Company explained static Q1 numbers due to high sales in newly opened Dunedin in Q1 2013 but no openings Q1 this year. Co says its on target with annual unit sales and nothing really restricting growth except their goal not to jeopardize on quality of care
Actually club sandwiches and cookies, very good.
Several adjourned after to St Johns bar later for the Tiger beer.
Overall the AGM was well done, and earnest directors was my impression.
I think the one obvious area for improvement with the AGM is that the forward guidance could be much better, and responses to questions about this and progress with in house development at the meeting could have also have been much better.
For me comments along the lines of "it is very complex", "directors are reluctant to do this", "may set up too rapid development", "ask your broker" etc are not good responses to a legitimate questions from shareholders attending the meeting and seeking information that is relevant to all of us.
imho
Ho hum Ho hum as he shrugs off his cider induced headache,Moosie you should know by now that Rymans price always increases a month or so before its results are released,same old but good pattern and yes winner those index boys are back as well ie check out the closing volume,no comment on AGM at the moment other than the company at the bar was excellent(Roger/Forrest/Iceman and his good lady/Toulouse and meeting onion also beforehand,apologies to anyone left out) Looks like Sum due for a rise tomorrow aye:cool:
Interesting comments Toulouse. Thanks
Suppose all these 'very complex' issues and keeping tabs on the pace of development ......along with the requirement to actually talk to shareholders once a year .......is a good reason to ask for higher directors fees.
I presume that passed. I voted NO
Greedy pack of bastards ......and they have the temerity to talk about their low paid staff at the same meeting.
Seems like the ordinary man in the street shareholders treated like second class citizens (were there many insto investors present?) but as long as you came away the warm fuzzies mission accomplished.
My summary of the AGM is as follows. Basically steady as she goes,board looks well balanced with its new additions but yes winner its always a prickly subject when board members are getting paid 80 k per year for offering up a few days a month while sitting on multiple boards and collecting multiple fees. Forward earning guidance lacking other than confirmation of projected build rate but this was balanced IMO by their focus and committement to maintaining excellent care standards for their residents and their desire to remain best of breed in this area . In house operations still in juvenile stage with many areas of savings still untapped at this point. Finally for those with less than a 3-5 year time frame for their investment perhaps they should look elsewhere because their expectations may not be met.
I didn't attend the AGM but reports give the impression of a smoothly-run formality, as a lot of these meetings are. I don't expect "market-moving" revelations from AGMs - after all, directors need to be careful to observe the rules around market sensitive information - but as Percy has observed elsewhere it can be useful to watch the body language at times.
Disc: Holding a few and not fazed by hourly/daily/weekly fluctuations in the shareprice!
Others have summed up the SUM AGM well so its only left for me to add the following:-
- During question and answer time Mr Cook made it clear that whilst the company was very reluctant to give specific guidance it was not expecting 2014 profit growth to match 2013 growth.
- Increased development margins by bringing development "in-house" would take some considerable time to eventuate
It was a real pleasure spending time with my fellow shareholders and meeting some of the team at SUM.
people with deep pockets (NZ Super fund) buying in:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/250015
My wife received an email on her phone from Aged care housing weekly, an Aussie aged care news publication which includes NZ news and the latest snipets are Norah Barlow buys into Ingenia, interesting she does this after selling down her Summerset holding isn't it? Remember she is a non executive director on the Ingenia board as well as being on the Summerset board.The other snippet says Summerset claims it wants to be the best care provider but new CEO has already made a decision which precludes that possibility. I'd love to read the full articles but its subscription only however after a month you can read the old edition for nothing, hmm I sense a slow down bumps ahead sign being waved here
Couta - you say The other snippet says Summerset claims it wants to be the best care provider but new CEO has already made a decision which precludes that possibility.
Can you elaborate .....seems a bi ominous
That's all she got on her phone,you would need to subscribe to get the full article or read it for free after a month,The question I have is has Norah sold all her shares in Sum? and put that money into Ingenia, if so that would be a concern to me while she remains on both boards don't you think? Yep I'd love to read the full article on that other snippet now but I'm not paying $300 Aussie to do so.
Norah Barlow brought 178,000 INA shares at 50 cents each.Total cost A$89,000.
To be invited onto INA board speaks highly for the regard she is held in the retirement sector.
Interestingly, the CEO of INA is Simon Owen, who made his name with Aveum in the Australian retirement sector.
Even more interesting is the fact that INA is about 33% New Zealand owned.
Win win situation for both INA and SUM.
Thanks for the extra info Percy re the share purchase but I sure would like to read the full article regarding that other snippet ,just have to wait till June
I wouldn't get too wound up. The CEO's decision could have been some arbitrary cost cutting measure that has been picked up. The magazine seems rather aggressive and sensationalist with it's articles - perhaps to increase subscription.
Sorry forgot myself,watching the rugby.!!
Also of interest is comparing the share price with NTA.
INA; sp 49cents .... nta 35cents.
SUM; sp.$3.50 .....nta $1.30 [approx.]
RYM; sp $8.89 .....nta $1.57.
Will leave it to others to decide which is "well positioned."
I own shares in each,Free ride with both INA and RYM while SUM average cost is about $1.30.
Australian retirement sector has been more lifestyle while NZ is total care.This is where I see Norah Barlow's experience will come in handy for INA.
Good on you Couta. I see the same magazine really panned RYM's entry into Australia.
this kind of 'snippet' would lead me to put little weight in the story they are spinning for subscriptions.
you cant just throw out a statement like that, alluding to what sounds like a major decision without mentioning what it is.
Would be a pretty poor CEO that makes a decision which precludes SUM from being the best care provider... I'm sure we would be aware of this 'decision'...
Fair value at current level in my opinion.
I think you are right Roger but with a good upside potential if they successfully internalise development and increase margin from 11% to 17% like Ryman. That would increase underlying profit (and dividend) by around 20-25% like we worked out in the pub last week 😉
I'd like to think it will run to its high of about $3.60,
Disc: topped up at $3.33 in feb, missed selling at the $3.60 high early april, I was to greedy at $3.63, maybe this month.
Yeah mate, all the best calculations are back of an envelope over a few beers :)
No question there's scope for increased development margin but I am sure you'll recall how we discussed this will take some considerable time to achieve. The other thing that I am not sure if I discussed with you in depth is that Ryman run their own development company whereas SUM have a different interpretation of what constitutes bringing all devlopment in-house. Whether they ever achieve the same development margins as RYM is an open question in my mind. On that subject, based on my discussion with Mr Cook after the meeting I would like to advise that SUM are very keen to recruit a highly experienced procurement manager, (it seems they are struggling to find the right person), too work towards more procurement efficiencies, (someone very high up in the procurement side of things at Fletcher's would be ideal I would have thought)..if anyone knows someone really good that might be interested in a change please let Julian Cook know.
Yes, RYM, SUM, SML, I trade about 30% of my holding short term, 60% hold long term. I try to sell 30% when price is at a high then wait and buy again in the next dip. Not always at once, IE with RYM last Friday was hoping for $8.90 but sold 1k x 3 at $8.73, $8.79, $8.77 hopefully price will drop to $8.40 or below then I will buy that 3k again. Dosnt always work, I often get me re-entry point wrong, or sell to early, but I dont risk my main holding so if price keeps going up I still gain, and I still have a holding to get dividends.
Being patient and waiting for price to drop is the hardest bit. I like at least a 5% drop or a value change so I can make a $1k profit but do that 3 or 4 times a year plus get a growth in share value keeps my portfolio looking healthy.
Over the years have done this with AIA, FPH, CAV, HLG and others, worked well as long as stock is profitable and trending up and the price fluctuats as RYM, SUM does at the moment.
My other stocks are all either short term or long term.
^^ Quite a good idea.
Another question I asked directors after the meeting was if they had seen any impact from the change in the Reserve bank's required lending ratio's yet ? Not YET was the response, with the emphasis on YET !
And here we see the first real sign that higher interest rates and the change in bank's deposit ratio's is starting to BITE.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...ions-weighhtml
Thought it only fair to let someone else have the pleasure of owning a few of our SUM shares today.
Has brought the av price of the balance of our holding down to 35.7cents per share,while today's purchase of more PGW has taken av cost of them up to 40.1cents.
Hi Percy
Good information that you have passed on regarding Norah Barlow going to INA in OZ. I did not know this.
I am now going to keep a watch on this stock and if she rubs off her skills onto INA like Summerset ,it will grow very nicely.
Good luck with the cash that you now have for new buy's.Well Done
Cheers
Blocker
Hi Blocker,
I think a few of your fellow Taurangans sharetraders are already holders of INA.
It is a big deal that she has joined the board of INA.The CEO of INA is Simon Owen, who also has a wealth of experience in the retirement village sector.So I expect it will mean sharing new ideas ,which will benefit both INA and SUM.
I too sold down RYM [too early],yet still hold some.
SUM we still have a good holding,just wanted to add to our PGW holding .
I brought into INA a long time ago at about 7.5cents.Added when they had an issue at 36.5 cents last year. Then sold the new issue shares to give me a free ride.I like all three RYM,SUM and INA.I have not researched the other companies in the Australian retirement village sector,as I had Aveum when Simon Owen was CEO ,and am very pleased with what he has/and is doing with INA.Having Norah Barlow joining the board is really the icing on the cake as far as I am concerned.
I would read the INA annual report,and announcements before deciding whether it suits you or not.
It's got to get to $3.60 again sometime, I will be selling a few when it does,
He also sold quite a few very late in 2013...just saying.
All part of Tristrans remuneration (being his LTI shares) so just cashing in his pay cheque ....just saying
Yeah, prob just needed some dosh at home cos new unit sales down eh Winner?
Popped out for a coffee. Met
Newbie in the café
Me "How's things going Newbie?"
Newbie "Great mate, just bought some shares in Summerset"
Me "Good one Newbie, but why Summerset?"
Newbie "Some guy called couta said they were going to be $4.20 soon - that will be 20% up"
Me "well done Newbie. Enjoy your coffee"
Newbie "no probs mate - hey I feel lucky today so let me buy your latte"
Winners post I respect as it has the workings attached, I would show yours the same if you'd added just a little more content and didn't show investing naivety in your posting history.
There are lurkers on here who do make decisions (why is beyond me) on people just throwing up numbers (sadly saw it on the DIL thread once the wheels started falling off the SP).
Tiresome is the 1,000+ posts that somehow give yours more credibility. If you're going to throw numbers around, just add a little 'why' and then we're all happy :) and can debate the merits of your workings.
Originally Posted by couta1 With 24 years experience in the industry ...
Are you able to divulge which area, i.e. management/financial, you have had those 24 years of experience in?
Not specifically as I do work in competing companies but some on this forum who have met me know and I trust them to keep it to themselves my wife also has a similar level of experience in a different area to me within the same sector some info is too sensitive to put on a public forum,cheers
So, working in competing companies strongly suggests you are on the carer/nursing side of things. Just can't figure out why those who know you are more or less sworn to secrecy though. I know a few folk who work in the carer/nurse area in various companies, and it seems to be a case of as long as they turn up, do their job, their various employers don't mind what they do inbetween times.
Cheers.
People have tried many times to get some sort of evidential backing out of Couta - to date not a single bit of value has been provided by him. He has pointed out however that he doesn't "crunch numbers" - so while Winner69's workings are a plausible way to get to a $4.20 value - i don't think Couta would have figured it that way. Commenting on price movements is his game - newbies have been warned a few times now...
Nice little rise. Hopefully we can end the day on a high.
I see the lynch mob has returned while I was at work back on your perch Ginger steps you only seem to comment when putting the boot in if you haven't got something constructive to say then don't keep harping on the same tune we have heard the above story before. Why would I put info on here that could put my income at risk? People that have met me from this forum know who I am and some know what I do that's good enough for me. Oh and by the way $3.50 x 20% = $4.20 is not really number crunching just mathematics 101. Anyway I've no need to justify myself except to say that others have already posted on the forum and behind the scenes that they enjoy my contribution and that's good enough for me and I think a total of 48 years combined experience my wife and I have had in this sector speaks for itself.
A forum works best if it is open, friendly and inclusive. Be careful about appointing yourself a policeman.
I reckon this is one of the best forums around for share trading and investing. I've leant a lot, and really laughed out loud at some posts. I enjoy the richness and honesty of the threads. It's not just a ramper's paradise that some forums are.
Couta1 certainly does add value and richness IMO.
I agree with Goldstein's comment above. I met Couta last week in Wellington at the SUM AGM and he's the real deal with heaps of hands on experience in the sector as well as being a bloody good bloke. He's clearly stated he can't go "on the record" on here about what he does in the sector and people should just accept that and move on. He's made some investing mistakes and learned from them, (heck we've all been there and done that). One of two people acting as little more than critics and adding nothing constructive to the forum or discussion need to get over themselves and take their hand off it.
Newbie got out of the Psych ward for the day. Jeez i hope you're not recommending investments to your patients couta.:cool:
Amazing the way the trading range has jumped. Volumes not massive, but certainly something. Nicely forecast Moosie.
Well I’ll be damned. I’m back in my nice, quiet padded room, this time with a mate. He tells me he’s been truck driving for 48 years, so I can ask him anything about MFT, and he’ll be able to advise me, how lucky can I get? He’s even going to teach me how to drive his truck when we get out. But he told me to keep his history to myself, can’t figure out why yet, maybe I should be very cautious, perhaps he’s armed and dangerous. But he reckons I shouldn’tworry about all the fangs and claws or lynch mobs or police (please, not the police, I’m trying to be good and honest, honest I am). He says it’s just human nature at it’s worst.
I studied so hard to see what advice I could glean so I could make some informed decisions for investing, but I’m still no further ahead. I guess I might be safer doing more of my own research elsewhere, reading everything I can lay my chained hands on, but not trusting all I read, but relying on myself instead of being a follower, and working out my own sensible strategies. Or I could just draw squiggles on the padding in here, to take my mind off all the noise.
Oh well, I like a bit of SUM anyway, 1 + 1 = 3. The TSB bank has raised some deposit rates today, so that should be good for oldies like me, right?
As Teuila Blakely said, in regard to her ‘great sex tape scandal’ “there were more important things in the world and people were becoming obsessed with the wrong things”. And she also said “As it is we alone, in any given situation, that have to live with our choices and consequences”.
And now I read that ‘A Labour-Greens alliance has overtaken National in the polls for the first time, in the wake of dramas surrounding Justice Minister Judith Collins and Maurice Williamson.’ Good grief, it’s enough to make an inmate want to act up again, to ensure he stays put. What’s that quote, ‘lies, damned lies’? Or how about this ‘Auckland needs to increase its city limits by 22 percent if it is to meet its potential as a global city.’ All about number crunching, really, you get what the number crunchers want you to get. Go safe out there!
Just thought that visiting here would be my fast track to the rich list. I should apologise for not adding anything enlightening to the thread, but I don’t feel like doing that, seeing it’s supposed to be such an open and friendly place. I like friends.
Mis chief can I borrow some of that stuff your on to take to the pysch unit please its looks like it works far better than the opiates that are normally dished out,cheers:cool:
After the meeting and discussion with Julian Cook I have done some work on where I see the profit for the current year.
Based on the projected increase in build rate and some increase in the development margin I see EPS growth of 25-30% this year and next and my best guess is this sort of growth rate is sustainable for a few years more before reducing into the lower twenty percent range.
I estimate underlying profit of $28m for 2014 for EPS of 13 cents per share. This puts SUM on a current year PE of 27 which seems quite resonable when they're growing at the same rate...i.e. a PEG ratio of 1 based on current years earnings.
Unlike the movement in the last year (SP only up 10% when underlying earnings increased 46%) I see no reason why the circa 27% growth in EPS shouldn't translate to an equilivent increase in SP, so my price target for next years AGM is $4.50.
I am really struggling to find value elsewhere that's going to show consistent growth so I rebalanced back up into this company today.
Thanks for sharing your number crunch Roger and thoughts Agree re hard finding value in the quality stocks atm.
Good on ya mate looks like were rebalancing in different directions you probably bought some of my shares at $3.54 I did pick up quite a few more HNZ though so going in the same direction there I'm going to play with Ryman with the balance of funds, look forward to next years AGM will take you for a blast in the big block before the bar that is
Thanks Roger. I have been doing same following the AGM.
I ended up with an underlying profit prediction of $ 28.5M for 2014 and $ 36.6M for 2015, up from $ 22m in 2013. There appears to be little reason why the SP shouldn't follow unless the market will rate it with a lower PE than it currently does.
Based on the dividend guidelines of 30-50% of underlying profit, we should see divies increased by 25-30% in each of the next few years.
The number I am struggling with is the development margin but I tried to work on the assumption it would grow to 13% in 2014 and 15% in 2015. But a bit of a stab in the dark that one !
Thanks guys...yeah I was feeling a bit light on the stock at the AGM and yes Couta, mate we should really have traded those between us off market LOL. BIG BLOCK here we come, you're on !
Hey Iceman, Mate we're on the same page, great minds think alike :) Its a fairly young company and I think as time goes on the institutions and the market in general will become more comfortable with its growth track record and if anything its possible given the relative underperformance of the SP over the last year could reverse itself. (Its pretty bizarre that a stock growing EPS at 46% last year lead to a SP increase of only 10%) so I forsee the potential for a slight PE expansion as the company builds its credibility over the next few years.
Newguy, you couldn't just edit the last bit of that sentence could you...I feel bad enough already LOL.
Ginger_steps,
I'm not going to go through and look at all of Couta1's posts. But off the top of my head (from this thread)
(i) he went to SUM's AGM and reported back
(ii) he contacted his sources about the Q1 sales figures recently and again reported back
IMHO, all information is good information - it's up to each investor to decide how they use that information. Couta1 does not hide his mistakes, so he is not a threat to newbies.
I really don't want to get into this anymore on the forum. You are showing just how elitist you are with your comment about temp nursing. Feel free to vent your frustration to me in a PM.
Ginger-steps butt out. You a Johnny-come-lately twerp.
Thanks Goldstein and others I'm not going to bother answering this person let others judge the tone of his posts for themselves we have our very own judge Judy right here on the forum who demands info and hands down his sentence to those that don't comply, very sad IMO
PM sent to ginger steps..
I am the newest of newbies and I find every post in this forum interesting and useful as I navigate the intricacies of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis . I have bought SUM and think I will hold and buy more. Thank you Couta and others for your comments which have certainly added richness to my learning experience.
Have reported gingers last post. Im suprised he hasnt been removed already tbh, personnal attacks really not on
Looks like Vince the mediator will arrive on the scene and dish out a Yellow or Red card.
And most probably Ginger steps last post will be deleated by the morning .
So we can all be positive again
All sleep well
Ginger does get overexcited i agree. We have to accept the multitude of differences in the way we all research , discuss , dribble criticise , agree disagree etc etc about investing our hard earned for future gains and income. However i have an issue with the way you, couta, cultivate, foster your position in the retirement industry as some consultant, advisor or high up in the inner workings of management with deep knowledge or inside knowledge of the retirement villages and can't tell us due to sensitivity issues etc. I have utmost respect for anyone who works in the front line esp with dementia and psych patients so why oh why do you have to be deceptive and disingenuous about this couta. Come clean ,then keep posting.
Legendary investor Peter Lynch said if you love the store you'll love the stock
Insights from the front line are often more valuable then talking to the head honchos - like what is really going on v the rose tinted view of the big boss who often has his own agenda to push etc etc
We should cherish couta's presence. Maybe we don't ask the right questions of him or maybe we should ask in a different way
Be good if couta worked in the construction part of the business and gave us insights into how the internalisation program was working. Maybe he does?
And by the way couta you were going to see what brand of taps etc were used .....are they Methven ones or not
I see you were up earlier than me at 03:23 winner69. I didnt sleep well as its 04:32. Good to see that the post is gone and we can positivly move on.
Cheers
I am sorry everyone,but could you please keep the slanging match posts to day light hours.
I need to get my beauty sleep.
Couta1, you don't have to justify yourself. It is not worth it to put your livelihood at risk.
IMHO everybody should drop this. We're just feeding the trolls now.