thanks for your support guys :)
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thanks for your support guys :)
Hi to all of you out there and glad I found this forum...
Making a first foray into NZO today, so intend to buy some this morning.
:)
so glad I have been busy at work with the drop this morning. No time to place an order...
Is this being manipulated down? Can anyone enlighten me?
Thanks in advance.
toffee.
There has been nothing but good news from the company. Tapis still kicking around NZD130 per barrel. 50,000 barrels per day. Cash in the bank to cover any PRC requirement (at a pretty premium to market rates). PRC activity rocketing along.
Only one seller. You can bet that he is motivate by shorting activity. Manipulation when cash is in demand - not ever on your Nelly toffee!!!!! That would not happen on the NZX under NZ Securities Commission controls (regulation sorry) there are no controls.
As one poster put it people getting shorn by the professional fleecers...
Thanks Bilo.
Its all a bit ugly but its the same company as yesterday or last week except with more oil!
Hey Shrewd, NZO @103 and my wife keeps asking about that new Kidney
Very good point Bilo,but if you are not selling just now it will all turn around after the current drop. It is that old Warren Buffett saying of being brave when others are fearfull and fearful when others are brave. This current economic US recession has sure come at the exact time that NZO was ready for takeoff.Now it is just sit it out and wait for the certain correction to follow. NZO is in good fininical position and has no contact with the subprime market that i know of,so will rebound on current income,and rebound more so on future income.
Hang on . This current economic correction will be shown to have little conection to NZO,and time will prove that to be so.
I can't see any negative to this, so going in now...initial buy.
:)
Tim that means nothing when the herd is in full flight.
Your fundamentals count for nothing in times like this. The traders are out the market, leaving the buy and hold investors holding the fort. I expect bigger and better mini crashes leading up to the big one that threatens. Its all in market sentiment, which has nothing to do with fundamentals in any particular company. Plenty of opportunities to average down this year in most companies i expect. I am mostly out the market, and expect to remain that way until after the crash looming up later this year then will buy in on TA buy signal when its all over. I might even get back into NZO at about 80c on the way back. Macdunk
MacDunk may well be right about the capacity to go lower. Those little blocking stakes that you see from time to time are the brokers/CMC making sure that those who are highly leveraged don't have much money to work with. (one earlier with PRC 1610@1.01 and another 3000 @ 1.04) They also force holders to sell at the lower price and hence force the price down. It all feeds their market shorting activity - that why shorts become such a good bet at this time - just be ready to take your profits quickly because the dealers atke theirs first. No one wants to enter the market in this situation as the controllers of the Margin lenders/CFDs (in OZ 30pc of the trades CFD) controls the market. They increase spreads and stop people buying or selling - all part of the game. Might be better to hang onto your money until we know when the end of month announcements is coming out.
Listen THIS IS NOT MANIPULATION!!
As MacDunk has said before - a big boys game. No rules other than that the biggest bully wins. What you stand to gain isn't worth putting your money in for...not much fun if you are caught with it in there but it is all part of the process of them taking their cash back.
A timely response to my post on PRC. Just put 50000 at 1.01 and said buy them if you can....or if you want to get screwed some more...
16 January 2008
NZOG SUPPORTS PIKE RIVER FUNDING PACKAGE
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited is playing a major role in the completion by Pike
River Coal Limited (PRC) of that company’s funding of the Pike River Mine
development.
NZOG has agreed to underwrite $17.5 million of the $60 million rights issue of shares
announced by PRC today (Offer) and will satisfy this underwriting obligation by taking
up its rights under the Offer.
The PRC issue is being fully underwritten through lead manager McDouall Stuart
Group Limited and PRC’s three principal shareholders – NZOG, Gujarat NRE Limited
and Saurashtra World Holdings Private Limited.
NZOG Chairman Tony Radford said that NZOG was pleased to support the PRC
NZ$60m rights issue.
“The combination of this equity capital raising with a US$30m bond issue to Liberty
Harbor, also announced by PRC today, is expected by PRC to fund the Pike River
mine development through to completion. NZOG’s previous undertakings of support
for PRC will be met through taking up $17.5m of entitlements under the rights issue.
“I expect NZOG’s stake in Pike River Coal to increase in value as the Pike mine
passes remaining milestones and moves into production; certainly, the demand and
price outlook for the high quality coking coal which the mine will produce is currently
very bullish,” Mr Radford said.
The heads are looking better and better every day. The options are now almost worthless and yours truly is on the verge of picking up a truckload. First thing first is i will wait until a clearer picture of the subprime market rippling effect. It is mostly likely to get worse before better. But my gosh, all of a sudden i have found extra cash waiting to put into the market.
On a seperate note, Bush is upping the campaign to attack Iran and believe this will happen before he ends his term. If i am correct then the price of oil could hit $200 in no time.
Watch this space..
Duncan - good luck with your 80c sentiment is driving the market at the moment but I expect fundamental values to return; besides NOG has fared reasonably well (until today I guess) in this market.
tim23
You are correct. This is where fundamentals come in moe than ever. Of couse most stocks will cop it to some extent but the ones who have strong fundamentals dont get punished as much.
The blood being spilt on the some of the mining stocks over the last 6 months in Aus show the difference what "hot air" does.
For the savy investor, they will stick to fundamentals and cash during these times. A good guide during these times is to look at the balance sheet
Rights issue explains the weakness of PRC and NZO and the large crossing of 20M shares. Good opportunity to pick up some cheap shares during rights trading. Bring it on!
TIM, its not good luck or bad luck that has nothing to do with it. Its following market sentiment which in turn has nothing to do with a companies fundamentals as you are finding out with NZO. Its times like this you get out the market completely. We are in for a very rough year with Bush threatoning IRAN, plus the American economy tanking fast dragging other markets down with it. Company fundamentals have no bearing on the market sentiment.
Traders are fleeing the market, leaving the mum and dad investors holding the baby. The time to buy NZO is when the market stabalizes, and starts a long slow uptrend. Who knows when the market will come good, it looks like a crash is imminent. That is why fundamental analysis is useless, and trading is by far the safest option. Macdunk
Incorrect - for every seller theres a buyer and they aren't the mum & dads, they are likely to be sellers in this market not buyers, so whos buying? likely - institutions and private investors who see this as a market on sale.
Normally I would agree with this.
But with NZO at present we have a special situation. The second quarter's reports due out in a couple of weeks will show a massive turnaround in profitability versus the second quarter last year, and versus the first quarter this year. We can expect somewhere around 42,000 barrels * 92 days * 0.125 NZO share of Tui * $86.25 price per barrel / 0.77 exchange rate = $54M (NZ) income, less say $10M in royalties and $3M in production costs ... lets say somewhere around $40M underlying profit for the quarter.
Tax losses taken to book and the way capital costs are accounted may mean the headline figure is different, but as a quantum of the underlying profitability I suggest $40M is a reasonable estimate. Compare to around $6M earned in the the first quarter and the loss in the second quarter last year that is a huge turnaround. With the NZO share price having been largely independent of crude price, it appears that the market does not see NZO as a producer ... yet.
I do not think NZO will start a long slow uptrend with the market, but will be rerated on the next quarterly. $270M market cap is just not logical for a company with $40M quarterly earnings - credit crisis or not. I think there is a lot of money out of the market at present, looking for a winner (and they are few and far between at present) so things could change very quickly - I am happy to be in NZO ahead of the upcoming announcements.
Nita, a truckload of options or heads??:confused:
The sellers are the people getting out the market in these risky times. The buyers are people buying more of the same averaging down with most buyers adding to their initial buy convinced that the numbers stack up in their favour. The traders are gone sitting in wait for the bottom to emerge. The options are now worthless unless you beleave in miracles. Macdunk
Unicorn
Firstly I agree with potential rerating at the quarterly, but then many oil companies are in the same situation. This sell down is not about fundamentals.
The timing of this attack is very similar to the very successful August attack. Don't be confused with fundamentals - this is about cash and liquidity. These are targetted attacks, this time under the guise of a liquidity crisis. By broker on any client they can expose, and to the detriment of those honest citizens who don't trade. If only everyone knew who to short and was unethical enough to do it. I think you might have to be an Australian.
A lot of companies who thought that they were doing very well today got sold down and some miraculously recovered - some didn't - perhaps it is their turn tomorrrow. Perhaps those that recovered a little are in for 2x tomorrow. All on small volume on the way down to ensure that no-one can sell. Millions taken on the way back up.
On another bad smell, when companies like PRC and NZO tell brokers more than their owners they leave a bad smell. The McDoull Stuart December report didn't print the whole story - just alluded to the PRC financials - while they organised $100M finance (now the size of that had Gordon stamped all over it).
The timing of the dumping of 50,000 PRC shares on the market at 1.01 was before the notice. See when I noted it above - see when the notice was posted. Perhaps it was just in response to my calling attention to the blocking order. Either way these events smell bad for insider behaviour. If only who was trding was more visible to the rest of us.
Sorry Brian, but I didn't like the timing of this report. It has been awhile in the making and to be unleashed today before the probable NZO sweetener was nasty for some of your shareholders.
I am looking at the options. Heads is a no brainer for a safe bet. If you want to hedge your bet then take a stake in both. Right now i am looking to pick up the options. It will not take much to turn the market around and in particular lift the sp for nzo. for me the risk versus the reward looks good. Having said that i now proably rate the options about a 70 chance of not being in the money. Even at 80% chance of not making it, the options look good at around 5 cps.
Again, make no mistake, only 1 of many bad news will send the options into oblivion. Significant problems at either Tui, Pike Kupe will do it. The you could have the decline of commodity prices, recession impacting on the local market and so on.
On the flip side, barrring unforseen circumstances (subprime being an exception) at around 20 to 30% chance of options binging in the money, we could have a 10 bagger in 6 months. Its not out of the realms of possibility.
Most will know when when the OC's went as low as 6 cps only to reach a height of around 60 cps. That is the pontential of options and especially now with the od's. Is it de ja vu? time will tell.
Its worth noting that the market has had 10 consecutive days of falls. Over a 15% correction from its high. If its only a correction then the buying opportunity is fantastic. If the market falls over then thats another story. Even so, NZO will prove to be a safer investment than many other top 50 companies
NITA, Surely the only safe bet is no bet at all in times of complete turmoil. Its much better to stay out the market money in the bank might make very little but sits there waiting for opportunities that will come when this is all over. Macdunk
Nita, you must have huge balls to be buying "out of the money" options in these uncertain market while PRC is doing a rights issue.
Given that PRC has been given the go ahead to raise $60M in equity, I assume that NZO has, at least privately, admitted defeat with the NZOODs. It would not make sense to raise $60M for PRC and $210M for NZO concurrently, from largely the same investor base.
Unicorn
As the PRC project gets closer to production the risks are minimised and therefore more options open up to PRC from the market. They have taken advantage of the progress and have refinanced the current debt structure. PRC was not in a position to negoitiate with Westpac when they did the initial debt deal. Hence, the expensive funding arrangement. This is positive news and shows that the project now has the full backing of the shareholders involved.
Good point Unicorn. At least not without upsetting many long term holders. Maybe McDouall Stuart haven't told them this yet. Should we expect an announcement imminently? After all $150M is a significant item.
Was your 210, 150+60?
I formulated a response to my earlier comment that the directors had stuffed this up but I considered the down ramp perhaps a bit too severe and didn't post it. In my view the waiting until June 30 before determining what they are going to do is wrong. It is the major factor impacting on the share price - other than the liquidity squeeze.
The bid and offer for NZO are both at 101 according to ASB & CMC shows it as suspended... There are no announcements to indicate a halt or anything...
Anyone knows what's going on...?
Check out NZO on the Australian market. Announcement from Origin re Kupe.
Dr who.
The way the markets are going, my finger is slowly quickly coming off the trigger for the options.
KIV
what an excellent environment for NZO to buy back shares in.
that will be only be 17m out of approximately 70m they would have generated this FY to end of Jan. Assume some debt repayment. Then? more licenses and or buyback?
A buyback would send the right message ie, we are buying shares on market because we think the company is seriously undervalued and cannot find a better investment!
No doubt. I am not sure what the term would be, not a dead cat bounce but i expect a rebound next week. The volatility is quite fascinating and nothing we have seen for as long as i can remember. Not even back in the 80's where every lemon was tasting sweet have we seen such volatility.
I expect nzo could rebound to $1.08 to $1.10 next week only to be followed by another sell off and even breach the $1.00 mark for the umpteenth time.
My trigger is off the options but is on the trigger for the heads. That could all change.
MacDunk.. what does your moving averages, candlesticks, timelines say? I take it that you have been sucked in and spat out in bubbles with all your stop losses kicking in or are you riding the tsunami in?
NITA, I have made mistakes thinking that this is right and that is wrong, but the one thing that i have learned is that its the market that decides what the share price is, not fundamentals common sense or any other method.
I to have been sucked in of late, thinking that i know best, but the market simply does not operate in a given rational manner. The big picture dictates traders fleeing the market selling to people that know best averaging down for bargains, or simply investors catching falling knives.
I find that if you are guessing market direction ignoring TA buy and sell signals then sooner or later the market will prove you wrong. I have been guilty of that of late, but mostly am cashed out the market with no intention of buying back in for at least until the market stabilizes showing TA buy signals. I would say that this is a great lesson for all investors to learn, the worst still has to come, so how did your methods protect you so far?.
I was lucky holding AGM which went up by 30% in dec 2006 sold to quick at 98.5c its now 7c higher to pull my money out the market. I sold two other companies at 10% losses, and lost one third on PEM expecting a take over knowing best, ignoring everything i taught myself.
Last year i more than doubled my money, but this year over all i have lost about 18% getting out of the market with nearly all my investments. I will stay right out the market until America goes under, and the world economy settles back, 5% in the bank is good enough for me after last years effort. Macdunk
MD. I sold eighty percent of my portfolio last year. They included skc, wpl, bhp. I only have PPP, NZO and NZOOD. I am fortunate that what i have left is NZO OD's and PPP are all free. I orginally brought NZO way back at the low 30's and sold at $1.10. Some ods were free and I brought more at the begining of 2007 at an average price of 12 cps. I sold most of ods at 30.5 cps, 18 cps and 10.5 cps. PPP brought options at 4.1 cps and converted but then sold most at 35 cps because of what i sold last year. What i did was not trying the read the market but simply use my money in another area..ie my own business. Whether the market was in a bull or bear market i would have exited the market pretty much the same.
As i have stipulated, I dont care about trading, although i love numbers especially statistics. Whenever i buy it is intended for an investment until such time i need some of it for housing, business or whatever. Therefore, I never have a specific timeframe or exiting although i do make sure I have an exit stratergy always. With regards to options, they are very volatile as you know and if I dont have the funds for conversion (which was the case last year) then i make sure that i can exit well b4 their expiry plan which is the primary reason they got sold last year. The other reasons were to raise extra capital for the business and the old saying, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. That is why i can live with myself if the rest of the options become worthless (which they almost are).
One thing i can say md, there are a lot more smarter people out there than me. Many also know stocks better than me. My number 1 strength is money management and in any type of investing, it is one of my golden rules. Another golden rule with shares is, whatever i invest i am prepared to lose. I never borrow.
I believe that the last paragraph is the foundation of good investing and as i get older it will probably be more entrenched into me. When you are in your teens are early 20's then taking more risks is ok because time is on your side.
All said, even if NZO hits $2 or # dollars within the next year or 2 I wont be crying wolf. In fact i will be especially happy for the ones who have had the patience.
Thats my little story anyway. Enjoy the weekend
any news re how the kupe pipelaying is going?
hope the fires near picton did not interfere
M
From the Port Marlborough shipping schedule, Apache is due to depart am 23rd Jan with the first of three loads.
Returning 27th Jan and loading the next lot until 1st Feb.
Returning 4th Feb, loading until 7th Feb.
The pipe spools have been assembled into strings which look to be about 400 metres long, which means that final welding must be taking place as they wind the pipe on board, which would explain the extended load time. Reeling the stuff out must be a comparative doddle if the weather is kind.
The fire was in the Koromiko area 10k south of Picton. Well away.
Mx
Up six cents in last 30 minutes.
Is this the start of the buyback, or something else? Volume over 150000 since the start of the jump.
Well assuming you are right Toddy, at least it's not insiders dumping for once!
I thought the conspiracy theorists would pop up !!
Not saying you are wrong though
short positions being closed out?
Financials looking better and better every day.
Nothing wrong with this stock. She's now producing more than anticipated at better than anticipated prices.
Wouldnt want to short this one. Burn you up if you do.
US resession looking grim. All markets seem to be down,so expect NZO under a dollar today dispite the every increasing good news. It would just be too much to expect NZO to go this much against the general trend.
I will still hold and let this thing sort inself out as every other downturn has done in the past.What a prick of a time for PRC to have a cash issue.
.
Someone just bought at close 100,000 NZOs at 106 cents -- pushed the price back to opening price !!
NO Drop for the Day !!!!
GO NZO !!!!!!
.
Looking at Asia right now makes me nervous. Hong Kong gapped down circa 600 points on the open and has fallen another 900 so far. Now 100% hedged on NZO. Tomorrow will not be a good day.
.
AMR,
How are you 100% "hedged" on NZO ?
Have u sold everything else and put it all into NZO ?
Wish I'd had some sort of hedge on CVN, gauddammit.
Last purchase was at 65c and now look at it at 36 cents !!
.
I've sold the same amount of CFDs as the number of shares I have, so any losses on my heads will be covered by earnings on my CFDs, it cuts both ways of course, if the heads rise then you lose out on the CFDs.
PPP and AWE are both down...it must be company specific whatever it is.
NZO shareprice stagnated more than any other share over the last few years and now looks to be one of the safer shares in this bear market. We live in interesting times.
Next time someone asks me how my shares are going I'll say I'm alright mate I've got NZO so I'm fully hedged!:cool:
NZO is a tower of strength. I maybe stating the obvious but nzo is sticking out like a sore thumb as one of a high quality stock. I have made mention of it before that the overseas stocks such as Aus, china, japan etc were more vunerable than nz stocks. Many have seen aus as the greener pasture but sooner or later reality kicks in.
nzo may not make the $1.50 mark but it could still give it a good shake. i only wish i had more money to invest in nzo right now.
whatever happens, its going to be a bloody interesting year for nzo and gloabal markets in general.
I take it then NITA that pass the parcel wont be much fun in june then. If you think that why dont you pass the parcel now before the music stops?. The reason the heads have stayed up is that it takes slow thinkers longer to move than normal. I am only kiddin you deserve it. Macdunk
Hmmm, the market is rising today but NZO heads south again. I guess dropping oil prices and a rising $NZ are taking their toll? When's that glowing quarterly due out?
dont be surprised to see late in the day another strong close.
NZO seems to be out since with the rest of the market a little bit. where the likes of wpl lost 10% yesterday but made up over half that loss so far today and similar story to other stocks, especially in aust. NZO is really proving itself to be the rock. The other nz or aus stocks are quite likely to benefit most from any short term rise but nzo will will prove itself to be more resilient if there is more downside to come imo
When is the quarterly out?
The activities report is due by the last day of the month. It would be nice to have it earlier, but with the holiday period and the need to get this report printed, I suspect that this is unlikely. I expect a very "full" report.
There are a few good posts on Hot Copper under NZO - two recounts of December 12 investor tour to Taranaki hosted by NZO. Have I been burying my head in the sand (more than A BOLLARD) not to have seen these posted here???
"
[FONT='Arial','sans-serif']OGW:Our internal modelling shows the company[/FONT][FONT='Arial Unicode MS','sans-serif']’[/FONT][FONT='Arial','sans-serif']s value to be in the vicinity of A$2 per share, although this valuation is contingent upon the high oil prices that are prevailing at present. What do you think the true value of the company is?
[/FONT]
[FONT='Arial','sans-serif']DS: We have our own internal modelling and from that we can form a view on what we consider to be the company[/FONT][FONT='Arial Unicode MS','sans-serif']’[/FONT][FONT='Arial','sans-serif']s value. I don[/FONT][FONT='Arial Unicode MS','sans-serif']’[/FONT][FONT='Arial','sans-serif']t intend to reveal our conclusions from that modelling, other than to say that to even come close to the current share price we would have to seriously reduce our estimates for future oil prices, perhaps to as low as [/FONT][FONT='Arial','sans-serif']US$40[/FONT][FONT='Arial','sans-serif']."[/FONT]
[FONT='Arial','sans-serif'][FONT='Arial','sans-serif']"OGW: Turning to Kupe, we know roughly what benchmark crudes the oil from the Kupe project will sell against, but can you give us an indication of what will the LPG and natural gas sell for?
[/FONT]
[FONT='Arial','sans-serif']DS: Our natural gas deal is confidential with our contracted buyer, but most observers suggest that the market price in New Zealand sits between NZ$6-7 a GJ at present. LPG sales we would expect to be close to the international LPG spot rate (called Saudi CP) and this can fluctuate a lot, but recently it has been around US$800-900 per tonne.
[/FONT]
[FONT='Arial','sans-serif']Gross proceeds for NZO from Kupe approx A $570 million.
Our modelling values NZO at A$2.00 a share."[/FONT]
[FONT='Arial','sans-serif']And heaps more. Two recounts and a valuation. There seems to be some basis to the post - very bullish - is it a con, another HC ramp?[/FONT][/FONT]
Sorry about that, I'll see if I can do better...it may take some time..
There are a few good posts on Hot Copper under NZO - two recounts of December 12 investor tour to Taranaki hosted by NZO. Have I been burying my head in the sand (more than A BOLLARD) not to have seen these posted here???
"OGW:Our internal modelling shows the company’s value to be in the vicinity of A$2 per share, although this valuation is contingent upon the high oil prices that are prevailing at present. What do you think the true value of the company is?
DS: We have our own internal modelling and from that we can form a view on what we consider to be the company’s value. I don’t intend to reveal our conclusions from that modelling, other than to say that to even come close to the current share price we would have to seriously reduce our estimates for future oil prices, perhaps to as low as US$40
OGW: Turning to Kupe, we know roughly what benchmark crudes the oil from the Kupe project will sell against, but can you give us an indication of what will the LPG and natural gas sell for
DS: Our natural gas deal is confidential with our contracted buyer, but most observers suggest that the market price in New Zealand sits between NZ$6-7 a GJ at present. LPG sales we would expect to be close to the international LPG spot rate (called Saudi CP) and this can fluctuate a lot, but recently it has been around US$800-900 per tonne."
Gross proceeds for NZO from Kupe approx A $570 million. Our modelling values NZO at A$2.00 a share”
And heaps more. Two recounts and a valuation. There seems to be some basis to the post - very bullish - is it a con, another HC ramp?
DS was certainly doing the rounds before Christmas.
Hi Bilo
No its not a ramp. It comes from John Campbell's Oil & Gas Weekly (which is very cheap - only costs a couple of hundred dollars a year to subscribe to). He just covers the oilers and knows them all very well. I would encourage everyone to support him as you get a very good independent analysis of the whole oil and gas sector. (Instead of the mealy mouthed brokers who know stuff all).
I have been really impressed with the way this oiler has stood up in the current correction. Solid as a rock. Good reliable upside from here.
Howdy Bemuda! Thought I would come and check in to the real land down under! cheers 2bs
just one more load out from tui before the quarterly report is issued
Fri 25/01 17:00 MEANDROS ISSL fpso OTHER sea >> umuroa XX /NIL NIL 232m 52159 0
Sat 26/01 06:30 MEANDROS ISSL fpso OTHER sea >> umuroa XX /NIL NIL 232m 52159 0
that should take loadout total to about 7.5m and production to Jan 31 to about 7.8m.
there must be some taper off in next few months, but even with average 40,000 bpd that equates to over 15m barrels by june 30
usd$150m earnings by june 30 is quite possible.
M
there must be some taper off in next few months, but even with average 40,000 bpd that equates to over 15m barrels by june 30. End quote
Well if the average is only 40,000 bpd now the tapering off has already started. However i think it is currently 50,000 and no slowing up in the drawoff. Where did you get the 40,000 from?? I am assuming we are talking current production and not average since startup last July.
Interesting to get a tapering off date from anyone. Unicorn believes in a tapering off this year but i could not get from him any indication of when this might start. My belief is that with the new recoverable current total of 41.5 barrells we will not see a drop in 2008. Also 41.5 is still the very low end of what we will get from TUI. Probably more like 60 so a drop off will be in 2009. However i will be constantly watching for this production slow up to get the first true indications off TUI potential.
Bring on that quartly report.
there must be some taper off in next few months, but even with average 40,000 bpd that equates to over 15m barrels by june 30. End quote
Well if the average is only 40,000 bpd now the tapering off has already started. However i think it is currently 50,000 and no slowing up in the drawoff. Where did you get the 40,000 from?? I am assuming we are talking current production and not average since startup last July.
Interesting to get a tapering off date from anyone. Unicorn believes in a tapering off this year but i could not get from him any indication of when this might start. My belief is that with the new recoverable current total of 41.5 barrells we will not see a drop in 2008. Also 41.5 is still the very low end of what we will get from TUI. Probably more like 60 so a drop off will be in 2009. However i will be constantly watching for this production slow up to get the first true indications off TUI potential.
Bring on that quartly report.
More blocks opened for oil and gas exploration
New 6:30AM Friday January 25, 2008
The Government is opening three more onshore blocks in Taranaki for oil and gas exploration, bringing the areas open for bidding to 12.
Government agency Crown Minerals had encouraged investors by providing free technical data, attracting some newcomers to New Zealand, Associate Energy Minister Harry Duynhoven said.
Bidding on the onshore blocks, excluding the latest three, opened last November. The bidding round will close on May 30.
Its not what you earn that counts as much as what you do with it once you have earned it. That applies in personal life as much as it does in company life. We all know people with modest incomes that accumulate great wealth. We also know people with huge incomes that end up with nothing. NZO at the moment has a huge income with a modest life span. Some people here only rave on about the huge income forgetting its what they do with it that counts.
They might spend the lot on a bigger much larger drilling program, where success or failure is in the lap of the gods. They might also batten the hatches down swilling at the trough for as long as it takes, and screw the shareholders for more funds on a continual basis.
The company appear to greedy and secretive for me to entrust my money with them, thats why i walked out the AGM and withdrew my funds because of lack of trust. Its what you get back that counts in dividends, or in a rising sp which as you can see has very little to do with company earnings. We all know what they earn but nobody knows the direction or spending policy the one thing that matters in business. Macdunk
Very good post Macdunk.
There will be trading opportunities as reports are released of how much NZO is earning. But in the long run there is no indication that they will do anything other than burn it.
digger, sorry my sums were flawed
should be if taper off was from feb 1st then my stab of minimum production for the period through to june 30 = 5 months @ 40,000 bpd = 6.1m
thus looking at about 14m barrels until june 30 in this scenerio.
if however the taper off is several months away then the numbers go up.
M
They have said they intend to invest in oil & gas exploration or purchases. There are 12 blocks up for sale in Taranaki - they will bid for some - that's why they employed the geologists.
ps it would be great to have you back on board MACD & the 30 day average will be crossed very shortly - you would be able to recoup your previous losses also.
NZO certainly has traded strangely recently. Wasn't really affected by the massive downward spiral, but hasn't bounced back with the correction either.
Thought I'd see a lot more positive action leading up to the monthly. Might pick up some on the asx today..
Wouldn't it be great if NZO could average 1c per day rise over the next 5 months! Is it too much to ask?
Ancient - Duncans post was pathetic be honest inless you are one of his flunkys?
Probably Duncan!
Meanwhile, back at Picton, CSO APACHE is loading the second string of pipe for Kupe, on schedule.
Mx
I must say when NZO start to go...they will really go. I have still got a few and just know that something is about to happen.
they are saving the tui production update for release as nothing since Jan 16 with 3 shipments and heaps of production since then.
M
Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
To 16 January 2008: Approx 7.2 million barrels produced, 6.7 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 900,000 barrels.
Tui oil is a light sweet crude that
Thanks Machine i see now what you are saying. Strange i had just not clicked at how you were writing it. Yes the TUI news has been savied since mid jan and to 2 feb will probably be another 1.5 million barrels. The market can still have a short nap till the next quartly release,which i am sure looking forward to.
You guys waffle on about the wrong things. PEAK OIL,PRICE OF OIL,WHEN IS THE NEXT ANNOUNCEMENT DUE OUT ETC ETC. That has nothing at all to do with the low shareprice of your company that has frozen your money showing no return in either sp or dividends over the last three years. The only people to make money in the last three years are the people that traded.
The company treats its owners the shareholders with contempt hence the low sp. Today it shows a buy signal. so cheer up guys you might end up getting back to a dollar thirty again. Not enough volume for me to buy in, to hard to trade out when it goes back down. I thought you might like to know it shows a buy signal at $1-10 so if you buy, run a trailing 5% stop loss and get out next time instead of bleating on about peak oil. Macdunk
Yes indead,
today NZO hit the 30day moving average so Mackdunk now has NZO as a buy...
:cool:
.^sc
I thought you might like to know it shows a buy signal at $1-10 so if you buy, run a trailing 5% stop loss and get out next time instead of bleating on about peak oil. Macdunk Quote
Thanks for the advice MD. Agree it is a buy signal and will put a realist sell in place at $3-30.,which as you know is tooooo cheap but markets are funny things and the price could but should not fall below that.
Hey McDunk, have you been drinking again? LOL
$3.30??? I am not as optimistic, though I would wish NZO to climb~
Realistically speaking~ we'd be quite happy it goes to $1.50 before the first half of 2008 ends.