Powell overreaching with QT
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beacon
... USD strength is weakening US...
UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession
...increasing weight of higher interest rates. Credit and lending standards appear to be tightening beyond simply repricing. Labor market income keeps being revised lower, on net, over time,” UBS highlighted.
“According to our estimates, spending in the economy looks elevated relative to income, pushed up by fiscal stimulus and maintained at that level by excess savings.”
The bank estimates that the upward pressure on growth from fiscal impetus in 2023 will fade next year, while household savings are “thinning out” and balance sheets look less robust.
...“historically large” amount of credit that is being withdrawn from the U.S. economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/why-...o-canada-.html
October saw China recovering
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beacon
NZD should keep inching up towards 62c as National Government formation negotiations enter final stages
- factory output up 4.6%
- retail sales up 7.6%
despite
- real estate investment down 9.3%, post CCP crackdown on excessive borrowing by developers two years ago and the pandemic.
Impact reflected in Baltic Dry Index reversion to the mean. One more box ticked for NZD
Immigration benefits outweigh costs. Great for NZ and NZD
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beacon
... stuff is getting better...
NZ's biggest ever migration-driven population gain for any 12 months period
NZ's Biggest source countries for foreign citizens - India, the Philippines, China, Fiji and South Africa. Why? NZ better on many counts...
Immigration fuels the economy. When immigrants enter the labor force, they increase the productive capacity of the economy and raise GDP. Their incomes rise, but so do those of natives. https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/...20of%20natives.
Yet, this happened at the same time as we experienced...
NZ's biggest ever net loss of NZ citizens in any 12 month period
A reflection on Labour policies and rule? Kiwis voting with their feet perhaps?
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-po...e-covid-levels