Smashed on the way up?
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Smashed on the way up?
Liz been there since listing so maybe time to say goodbye ….she said goodbye to Skellerup last year and the luck seems to have turned down at her other baby in Ebos. Time for a break?
That Alan Isaac seems to pop up a lot where Liz hangs out ….maybe time for him to say goodbye as well…and Dame Kerry well what more be said.
Might get Ronaldson on the case to get NZSA to start stirring for changes on the Board …a few too many hangers on I reckon
yep be calling for her scalp if the price reaches 20c
I'd have to assume she has some skills and talent to get to her position but I couldn't observe much of either listening to her at the shareholders event.
End of day is what matters and phew 74 held ….even though dipped down to 73 a couple of times
Bit like the Warriors …still another chance ……this could be OCA’s year
Nicholas Taleb told a story in Fooled by Randomness about a dentist which went a bit like this -
“A 15% return with a 10% volatility (or uncertainty) per annum translates into a 93% probability of success in any given year. But seen at a narrow time scale, this translates into a mere 50.02% probability of success over any given second as shown in Table 3.1. Over the very narrow time increment, the observation will reveal close to nothing. Yet the dentist’s heart will not tell him that… At the end of every day the dentist will be emotionally drained. A minute-by-minute examination of his performance means that each day (assuming eight hours per day) he will have 241 pleasurable minutes against 239 unpleasurable ones. These amount to 60,688 and 60,271, respectively, per year. Now realize that if the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency. Consider the situation where the dentist examines his portfolio only upon receiving the monthly account from the brokerage house. As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four pangs of pain per annum and eight uplifting experiences. This is the same dentist following the same strategy. Now consider the dentist looking at his performance only every year. Over the next 20 years that he is expected to live, he will experience 19 pleasant surprises for every unpleasant one!”
If you are truely only 17 years old, then you must be a reincarnate of some long dead and perhaps forgotten investment guru. Such wise words are uncommon from someone so young.
I think you are correct, that our discussion is confused by people who are only interested in the capital price (SP), with those who are only interested in the long term investment. Maybe with some in between, like the momentum traders. Fixation on the daily SP is only helpful for a longer term investor in terms of whether they can buy some, or more, at a ridiculous discount to its long term asset value and discounted cashflows.
There is no doubt in my mind that the RV sector is a long term investment, we can quibble about which company is better at any given point in time, but in the scheme of things all of them will be good long term investments. I don't concern myself with flitting in and out of long term investments just because the market prices them more or less, except to load up a few more when the market has a hissy fit and gifts me assets well below their long term value. We've seen a bit of that recently and lately, it's a time that doesn't happen very often even on a decades long timescale. To miss that opportunity would be the regret of any long term value investor.
Conflating unrealised capital fluctuations, with real cash payouts from profit, and unrealised future cash payouts, and potential future capital gains, is a fools game imo. It confounds common sense and distracts one from the strategy they have to make money from making the investment in the first place.
Good luck to you ValueNZ, you're a breath of fresh air for investors, and if truely as young as you say, then also an object lesson for all of your age, perhaps any age, as to the difference between investing for long term income and gains, versus trading for short term capital gains.