People will also be booking with the existing credits they have with AIR NZ , so maybe not even any new income ....
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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12326338 How Covid 19 brought the aerospace industry down to earth.
Interesting times for the industry as a whole
Bubbles of debt with wings !! Ha.
"Out of the world's nearly 1,000 airlines a lot are just bubbles of debt with wings said Brian Burridge, chief executive of the Royal Aeronautical Society.
The other thing this article reminds us about (than the aerospace industry) is the interconnectedness of everything and how it all the pain travels through the various links to affect heaps more people than is originally envisaged. I call them tentacles as they reach out everywhere. And when the news is bad the snowball seems to grow and grow until it crushes all the saplings and only the sturdiest remain.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartandhp
AIR refuses to disclose the number of staff with Covid 19 :eek2:
How are the public supposed to have confidence flying with them again ?
There has been talk of a class action by Qantas staff alleging Qantas engaged in reckless endangerment through lack of provision of PPE gear to staff.
It makes me incredibly nervous when a company engages in deliberate concealment of relevant information. I imagine it makes AIR staff very nervous too ! I won't be flying in the foreseeable future.
The crew member who attended the Bluff wedding didn't think he had an issue and now there's about 100 people paying the price. Absolutely its relevant !
How many other Kiwi's are at risk because irresponsible crew are playing Russian roulette with people's lives ?
Why are AIR deliberately concealing this information ? Could it be because they don't want the public to understand the risks in flying domestically or on what international routes remain ?
This smells worse than 7 day old fish left in the sun to rot.
No point in stopping at AIR though, Beagle...
How many bus drivers have been infected?
How many shopping centre staff have been infected?
How many health care workers have been infected? (this one is partially being shared)
I can see why this info isn't being specifically shared because it doesn't necessarily add value if the contact tracing is happening / has happened - what purpose does it serve other than to create fear in these critical services? I am comfortable with the approach, but I do think that the international air staff should all have been, and continue to be, subject to self isolation until 2 weeks after their last travel (just like every other international traveller)
I think that dobby's right. It's not the number of crew who are/were positive Covid-19 that matters, it's the assurance that no such people are being put in potential contact with passengers, that is the issue.
Additionally, I would assume that under the current restrictions, international air crew might become infected and they might pass it on to passengers... but those passengers will go straight into quarantine and shouldn't pass it on to anyone else. So you're unlikely to get a repeat of the Bluff situation at least not anytime soon.
There is always going to be risk here. It's not about eliminating risk but about reducing it as much as possible.
Domestic air crew shouldn't be becoming infected. I assume you're not planning on leaving the country any time soon so flying domestically shouldn't be a problem.
I was shocked at how complacent Air NZ were leading up to the lockdown. My wife had to get from New Plymouth to Christchurch in a hurry on the 20th or March. I assumed they'd be spacing all the passengers out as best they could...the plane was maybe half full (half empty is probably more appropriate), but no, they had all the passengers seated around the centre of the plane for balancing purposes like they do. No masks or hand sanitisers to be seen anywhere...too laid back Kiwi.
I wonder if AIR have enough crew that have had the virus and recovered,to man a flight to a high risk area?
The contact tracing internally at Air NZ is very effective and the medical team is well led by doctors/nurses there - I can tell you the number of infected crew is marginally above the 8 we already know of publicly. It is by no means out of control or a scary number.
All Charter crew are self isolated for 14 days - including the upcoming India Repatriation flights (where community transmission is an unknown) and all Los Angeles services (where community transmission is out of control). Vancouver charter crew were not required to self isolate back in NZ as Vancouver has extremely low levels of community transmission and the science I suppose supported that - though perhaps as a precaution it should have been imposed anyway.
Sadly the Bluff incident was a case of an asymptomatic tested person unknowingly infecting others. The person via tracing is known to not have contracted the virus at the workplace. This information wasn't made public.
Air NZ medical team have extensively traced each crew case and to date know that the person either unwittingly has gone to work untested and infected or has indeed gotten it on a layover. There is no case yet where onbaord transmission to or from crew has been found - via tracing. Still I do agree they could have done a better job with passenger spacing and the like.
The Vancouver situation is related to the behaviour of a particular individual and has caused a hell of a ruckus.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12326682
"Very light (polite description) domestic essential worker travel today on @FlyAirNZ. Only 175 passengers booked across 14 flights. Will check the statistics to establish whether this is a (bad) record."
Average load just 12.5 passengers per plane, assuming they all show up for their flights. Should be no problem maintaining 2 metres distance from crew or other passengers.
I stand corrected - 35 crew COVID positive.
Much anger inside the company that this information was withheld for so long.
The public have a right to be angry as well after all the "corporate spin" from AIR that its perfectly safe to travel on aircraft and the planes have hospital grade filtration systems. Thankfully the public are well aware the best place to avoid at this time (unless you absolutely have no other alternative) is hospital, onboard an aircraft or in a doctor's waiting room, all about as bad as each other.
I hope the idiot who attended the wedding at Bluff already sneezing and a bit sick and the other person in Vancouver engaging in reckless endangerment of others have already been fired.
Rarely is a Pilot fired sadly.
Yes, exactly Raz. Totally unconscionable behaviour,. And if they don't run the flight, cause its not worthwhile to them to do so, then the abandoned passenger gets a voucher that may or may not be worth jacks*** in the future.
Good on the government for doing them over in their time of need.
Typical Auckland Weather:
https://d3lcr32v2pp4l1.cloudfront.ne...and_992462.jpg
from Flight Global
Possibly because AIR NZ do not know that she is a US citizen? Are you sure they told her that she can enter NZ, or did they tell her that her flight is still on and she can still fly? There is a difference. But on the balance of things AIR should have asked more questions and provided more information.
If I were a NZ citizen in the States and had an AIR flight booked I would welcome AIR calling to tell me that the flight is still on and that I can still be repatriated to NZ. Saves me the hassle of trying to get through which is difficult in these times potentially.
Air NZ to close Nelson maintenance facility
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...ty-devastating
The Q300's are approaching their end of life, as are some of the ATR-72's (500's). Social distancing requirements also mean that Air NZ is likely to require larger planes for domestic routes.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...covid19-crisis
I can't see this route opening until late 2021 at least.
If Australia is only big enough for "one and a half airlines", where does that leave NZ and AIR?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...lines/12169620
Scott Morrison saying NZ will be the first country that Australia reconnects with and highlighting how well both countries are doing containing the virus.
My my gut instinct is we'll have a trans Tasman air market by Xmas.
Was that an aggressive play on the stock market - or an aggressive play by parking some of their redundant planes on NZ tarmac?
The latter. AIR would be hoping that Jetstar is gone from the NZ market, but then Qantas might decide to ramp it up and really put the margin squeeze on AIR, while they are on the ropes. Probably not going to happen, it wouldn't be good for either nation to have only one domestic carrier spanning both.
Not going to happen. Any party looking to acquire a shareholding of 10% or more in AIR must get permission from the N.Z. Govt.
The question is if the Govt end up with a 80-90% stake in AIR after the major recapitalization it needs will they pull up the draw-bridge in terms of who is allowed to fly within N.Z. ?
All international AIR staff to be tested, (not before time) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12327130
Has any one considered what a recapitalised & reorganised Virgin Australia is likely to play here ?
It could be that they have their act together considerably faster than AIR
If they re-established an early stronger presence here, it could be to AIR's detriment..
You'd hope so, but this is the Aussies we're talking about... Qantas and their shareholders don't want to be seeing all those planes of theirs sitting dormant...
Sorry Beagle, I should have stated I was thinking a battle for the skies, not one on the stock exchange.
Indeed. That's another reason why it's concerning AIR don't crack on with the reset they need to do.
May get to the stage where NZ Government, just cant afford to keep Air NZ afloat anymore and just has to accept Qantas as an ANZAC carrier. Deep pockets maybe, but just how deep, that is the question.
Just depends how deep the resurgence of Covid happens when the 1200 or so NZ Residents/Citizens come back from India.
Apparently its better for NZ if we take back people already infected with COVID from other countries, because it doesnt add to our count, but adds to the country they arrive from. This could be a real disaster that never makes the stats.
Govt still has dough apparently to throw around at anything but directly at the injured productive sectors & businesses - with Govt's Robertson considering / not ruling out Helicopter payments.
God knows how many affected SME's coming out the other side the Govt are expecting to see, or are they still blind to reality ?
It doesn't take many cells to extrapolate that business will be adjusting and repositioning on the other side, with high possibility
of further waves of jobs thrown on the scrap heap, for Govt to have to pick up the pieces on..
"Stylish" new uniform for Philippine airlines crew. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/ne...ectid=12327161
Bet some AIR crew wouldn't mind wearing something similar.
im sure we will see something similar for next autumns return flights to europe 2021..
This is one example what US tourists will face to get here....hmmmm
https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...rs/3002301001/
Iceman will be gutted
@camwallace_nz
Bitterly disappointed that we have announced the cancellation of services to Bueno Aires. We served more than 400k pax over 4+ years on that route. Sth America boss, Alex O has lead a great bunch of professionals who are passionate about @FlyAirNZ @andykirton
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12327253 Reality is just starting to bite.
You did well getting in with your refund request while they still had a reasonable amount of cash. Now they are starting to draw on the Govt loan at up to 9% interest that will be sharpening their focus on cash conservation. Better use up the rest of my airpoints next week before they run out of money to pay Miter 10.
Thanks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12327101
Ngai Tahu obviously think tourism is going to be very seriously affected for a very long time.
To be more specific - this is what they send (it has been exptended from 12 months from the date the credit was given)
Quote:
For example, we’ve been able to make the following enhancements to provide greater options with more in development.
The booking period has been extended through to 30 June 2021
You have 12 months to complete your travel from the time you make the booking
The credit use is also not restricted to the same route or type of journey that was originally booked
"It is trying times throughout New Zealand but Queenstown is by far the worst affected area."
It's going to be pretty devastating for Rotorua too, if we can't restart the tourism industry pronto. Maybe domestic and some government support to keep it idling. Once these are attractions are shutup, it's going to be a real chicken before the egg situation to get them going again, especially in terms of attracting international $$.
A lot of tourist attractions are educational,perhaps the govt.could support some school trips.
For example Kelly Tarltons in auckland cost's $39.00 which seems a bit expensive,but hey if you can get it great.But it is sold heavily to overseas tourists.Perhaps the gov't could kick in say $10.00 per student,Auckland Council could kick in with a subsided bus,and mum and dad could pay for a sticky bun and drink.
I tend to agree with this but the optimist in me could see travel restrictions being progressively lifted (possibly with mandatory on-arrival testing) with individual countries that have shown they have the issue under control. There would obviously need to be controls to prevent transiting.
SARS had superspreaders, some that were more infectious than others where one person infected many more than the average. Looking at some of our clusters and other exposures that haven’t resulted in a lot of spread I wonder if covid is similar. Either way there are too many unknowns that would hinder the ability to implement this safely even with on arrival testing given testing and the number of false negatives.
Patterson Who says u have a moral obligation to take the credit. We need a lawyer so we can each decide who gets our charity, not from the ivory tower.
Testing on arrival wouldn't cut it - could be days before testing showed it and you'd be in the community by then.
That's why we have 14days isolation now.
I'd tolerate 14 days isolation if I was taking my usual 60-70 day trip but not for anything less and most people would go away for 2-4 weeks.
You mean this stuff...
But for many others, the reality is if you've spent $5000 or $10,000 on flights to the US or Europe, they're in quite a privileged position in society as it is.
"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.
Well I book monthly return flights for the year ahead at the start of the year for Board meetings in LA, so my companies should morally give it to AIR as a credit and the guys an economist. WTF. Why are we still funding the middle management of AIR so they can get their 300k plus wage subsidy. After all they are funding it on customer airfares paid in advance and an a tax payer loan/equity deal by now, all at the expense of the other shareholders. If they were a professional sports team the so called talent would be kept and everyone else would have a cut cut way deeper by now.
Queenstown is a mess have a couple of rentals I built down there a long time ago..happy to keep the tenants in there for heavy discounted rent..many house down there are getting turned over if empty..many desperate people. Time to give back as we have made a killing down there...
Rotorua more accessible than Queenstown to a decent domestic population. Queenstown is on Ice if Victoria skiers can not come over this winter until the following year.
WTF is right! My frequent travel is local, booked months in advance and thousands of dollars up front, I want all my cancelled flights refunded, pronto. I’ll probably not have a contract soon so last thing I need is 8-12 weeks of pre-paid vouchers for flights I’ll never take. Those thousands of dollars are not the airlines’ to keep or defer, they’re mine, I’m not a charity and I didn’t cancel my flights, they did. Give me my money back. I have no sympathy for the airline or its shareholders. As a customer it’s not my responsibility to be charitable. I’d rather give the refund to the sallies than have the airline spend it on their bloated operating costs. End of rant.
Prob been covered to death here but fyi
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...is-consumer-nz
So as part of their ongoing marketing exercise I guess they keep updating customers of which I am sure nearly everybody is.
But it is interesting how they keep pinning themselves down with the job numbers, I quote
"Weare leaving no stone unturned as we seek savings in all areas of our business.We are in a fight to try and save the 9,000 jobs that will remain after wecomplete the current consultation process that will see up to 3,500 highlytalented Air New Zealanders looking for work elsewhere"
How on earth are they going to pay 9000 staff as a domestic / intl freight only airline.
I nominate this guy for dick of the day;
"But for many others, the reality is if you've spent $5000 or $10,000 on flights to the US or Europe, they're in quite a privileged position in society as it is.
"The reality is, do you want your need or desire to have your ticket refunded ... do you want that to be the thing that really puts our national carrier into dire straits, and ultimately the service that you want to be there in the future, that you make that vulnerable?" Patterson said.
What a complete tosser. Its not the customers fault that Air has not managed their balance sheet. Later in the story:
"At December 31, the airline's liabilities included $1.4 billion revenue in advance, which was tickets it had sold but not yet provided the service for. That was compared with $1 billion cash in the bank."
So by the looks they have been eating customers money before they have provided the service. Bit naughty if you ask me.
I'm lucky that all the travel I had booked for work for coming weeks/months was all on the 'flex date' class (hadn't booked any international at this stage) so easy to get refunds there.
But this business of offering credits when the international travel landscape is going to be uncertain for a long time to come - and routes are being dropped, including the one you may have purchased for - is not good enough IMO from a consumer protection perspective.
That Patterson chap can shove it. As others have alluded to, it's not our responsibility as consumers to ensure the companies we buy from are being prudent with the money we give them.
The government will bail out Air NZ anyway if it all falls over completely, so they should do the right thing and cough up the coin that Kiwis have basically lent them (interest free).
If they would prefer to hold on to the cash, then they should offer credits on more favourable terms. For example, Ticketmaster in the US is offering 150% credits to ticket holders OR the option for a full cash refund.
People may desperately need to access that cash for mortgage payments, rent, vehicle repayments etc. So many live hand to mouth - a trip to Europe that was affordable 3 months ago now may be the difference between getting your car repo-ed or not (luckily I bike everywhere ... no Baycorp visits for me).
Virgin AU well and truly munted (financially)
Still be pretty dire if AIR is only half as munted as Virgin are
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...24-p54my4.html
There will be those that had paid for flights to another country to find employment, a long term OE or a new start...plenty of them won't be in a situation to lend that money to AIR for an extended period. Are they doing some kind of case by case assessment here, or is it a black and white no refund policy?
They appear to be completely delusional. It took 3 years for demand to return to normal after 9/11. This is FAR more serious and travel demand is unlikely to return to anything like it was for many many years. Their whole focus seems to be on retaining staff so they are ready for growth again on the other side of Covid 19. Their focus should be on getting through the next period of 12-24 months of extremely weak demand so they can survive to meet modest demand the other side of that.
Things are unlikely to return to normal for 4-5 years in my opinion.
So this "gentleman" on hundreds of thousands of dollars per annum sits in moral judgement on a retired old couple of modest means who have saved for years to have their lifetime dream of a trip to Europe. The ugly truth is you've got people like Cam Wallace chief revenue officer probably on a massive salary of well over $500,000 sitting there watching flight radar and tweeting the bleeding obvious that demand has fallen straight off the edge of a cliff.
On the solvency thing, I have been saying that for quite a while that the airline is technically insolvent. Some people on here thought that a bean counter with 40 years experience didn't know what he was talking about. Well it turns out I do. Why should people feel compelled to take a credit for future airline travel they have to book within 14 months or so when it may not even be safe to travel then ? The arrogance of people in the ivory tower being paid many hundreds of thousands of dollars to make moral judgement on people of far more modest means who have scrimped and saved for their dream trip is truly breathtaking. Quite frankly I am disgusted and will spend my remaining airpoints ASAP and won't be flying anywhere, anytime soon.
P.S. More on this subject here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12327538
"If customers have purchased a domestic non-refundable ticket and don't wish to travel, they will not receive a refund unless local legislation requires a refund to be made."
Sounds like Air NZ certainly aren't taking the moral high ground as Pattersen expects the consumer to?
My wife and I were to fly Biz class to Buenos Aires on 29 March but the flight was cancelled mid-March. I reluctantly accepted a credit for the fares (recently extended to June 30 2021) in the hope we could book to travel there in the next year or so. AIR announced yesterday they now wont be resuming flights to BA at all.
I have today contacted them to ask for a refund to my credit card as they can't/won't provide the service I paid them to deliver.
It's unconscionable for them to retain my cash in these circumstances.
Remember that Virgin Aussie have been able to fly over in OZ under a less restricted job that here
What does that suggest for AIR (or should that be Debt AIR Robertson) ?
The latter may see some mid air duels here, if the Virgin job gets off the ground fast again - a very good chance of that with Deep Pocketed Private Equity owners waiting at the VA door
I think you have a very strong case for a cash refund as they are the ones that have decided to permanently cease flying there. You could also consider approaching your bank about reversing the charge to your credit card as permanent cancellation and inability to provide goods or services should entitle you to a reversal of the charge. Good luck and be tenacious.
More I read and hear I’m glad I insisted on a cash refund for the cash I forked out a while ago for a trip to UK this month.
Can someone enlighten me? How can the current valuation of $1.20 per share be justified, are investors delusional??. As an article in stuff this morning indicated there is about as "much chance of a return to dividends being delivered as a reunion of the Beatles"
IMHO it's not remotely justified. The airline is burning through cash, we're heading into a major recession and the Prime Minister has said repeatedly that NZ's borders will remain closed for "a very long time."
Side note: AIR NZ's refund policy compares rather poorly with Cathay Pacific's policy which, after some messing around back in February, became (i) if you purchased your ticket before HK's travel restrictions kicked in, you can either reschedule or get a full refund with no fees applied and (ii) if you purchased your ticket after HK's travel restrictions kicked in, no refund but you can rebook as often as you like out to March 2021 at no cost.
Thanks Beagle. The flights were booked late last year so unfortunately, I am way out of time for the credit card reversal to be an option.
I contacted AIR via Messenger but realise they are snowed under with issues like mine so I'm not expecting an immediate response. I will be keeping the heat on though if they try to wriggle out of this one.
Was supposed to flight to Chicago on Thursday. Originally had got a credit, but later went for a refund - sitting with the travel agent at the moment.
The event I supposed to be going to in the States has been delayed until August - the same time as an event going to in Shanghai. I know which one has a greater chance of being on......
You've got to wonder if the board have their heads in the sand too. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...043/317644.pdf
From the interim report "I am confident that we have the ability to manage the expected short-term impacts of Covid-19 effectively".
Declaring an unchanged dividend and then having to cancel it suggests that board have been behind the times with thinking through the impact of Covid 19 from the outset.
Shareholders equity as at 31 December 2019 was $2,014m.
There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that this time next year they will have incurred losses of at least that amount so the shares are presently technically worthless.
There's also no doubt in my mind as to the fact that the NZ Govt will have to convert their $900m loan to equity contemporaneously with a rights issue of a similar amount to other shareholders which will happen sometime in 2020, probably by at latest Sept 2020, potentially a lot sooner.
A have serious doubts that a ~ $1.8 billion capital raise will see them right through this Covid 19 crisis and believe the risks of a further capital raise to restore liquidity from losses in FY21 and FY22in due course are very real. Indeed, in my mind there are real questions as to whether the company can even break even in FY23. That year starts in July 2022 only 27 months from now. They may be back to 60-70% of capacity by then or perhaps only 50-60% which won't be enough to make a profit.
Really I don't see any real money being made until they are back to 80% load factors on the substantial majority of their former route network. Maybe they have a chance of a small profit in FY24 but I think more likely FY25. In the meantime it won't surprise me to see them burn $4-5 billion in capital over the next few years to stay afloat.
In that context what's the current $2 billion of share equity worth !
Hi all - I'm new to ShareTrader. Not so new to the Market.
I'm a bit of a chartist, so on pure speculation I bought at 0.84 (what I saw to be a safe-ish, historic low) and I sold at 1.28 (That absurd rally was overheated enough for me by that point - even if it hit 1.60 later!).
Any trades on it right now are obvs speculative and current valuation is very short term (ie subtracting 1B of cashburn from 2B equity) at best, delusional at worst. But on its Technicals, I could justify getting back in there to hoover up the cream of some dumb money next week. It's near a 38.2%/50% retracement confluence zone and volume has dropped away as price been edging lower (waiting for more news). There's a risk it may test the next confluence zone however around 1.10. Then you simply watch the Sharesies traders Market Order the price back to 1.50 and voila.
And at what point do management say to themselves what's the point and simply give up.Can you imagine the amount of motivation as well as money it's going to take to keep this one going.
My money would be on a split company domestic and overseas.with the very real chance of the overseas company either being sold or going under.
When do you think the market will wake up and realise that it's not just the short-term impacts that they should be concerned with?Quote:
You've got to wonder if the board have their heads in the sand too. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...043/317644.pdf
From the interim report "I am confident that we have the ability to manage the expected short-term impacts of Covid-19 effectively".
Brand value only and what's their brand worth the way they are treating customers with forcing most to accept credits they don't really want and in many cases have to play Russian Roulette with their health to potentially use down the track ? I think its morally bankrupt that they force people to accept credit rather than cash and totally unconscionable that they then go on to place a strict time limit around when that credit must be used so that customers are coerced to take chances with their health they wouldn't ordinary take. That sort of attitude to customers is extremely corrosive to brand value from where I sit.