Wouldn't she need to travel to join the odd board meeting in Hawaii? But I guess this is the stuff for next years resignation ...
The talent pool for good directors appears to be pretty empty ...
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ATM hits an all time high of 21.41 today.
Again very strong resistant at AUD $1950.
Top fund manager says A2 Milk could double or triple its market share
One leading fund manager that appears to agree is Ophir Asset Management.
Its Director and Portfolio Manager, Andrew Mitchell, recently told Livewire Markets that he believes a2 Milk Company has a “huge runway” and could double or even triple its Chinese market share in the future.
According to the Livewire podcast, the fund manager notes that the premium end of the Chinese infant formula market continues to grow even during the pandemic. This is because Chinese families are not cutting back on infant formula in difficult times.
This is a big positive for a2 Milk Company and offers “downside protection” during periods of time like those we are experiencing at present.
Yawn........
Not necessarily, consensus NPAT is around $390ml for FY, if they beat that and come in around $400ml + and then sp will rally hard. Additionally, US growth, capital management/strategy plans and announcement of new CEO. If its going to be Peter Nathan as widely rumoured, market will love it and apply higher multiples.
And evidence that FY results are gonna be outstanding is the low number of shorts for over past few months.
Excuse my ignorance here - latest announcement from ATM relates to https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357627
Is this a a sign of anything underlying? making ready for new CEO? or am I way off?
Last call for topppp uppp.... :)
Report tomorrow???
New CEO announcement here. Frankly I'm disappointed it wasn't an internal promotion.
The Board of Directors of The a2 Milk Company Limited is pleased to announce the appointment of David Bortolussi to the role of Managing Director and CEO based in Sydney. David is expected to commence in the role early in the 2021 calendar year. David will succeed Geoffrey Babidge who has been in the CEO role on an interim basis since December 2019.
David joins the company from his most recent role as Group President - International Innerwear, HanesBrands. He joined Pacific Brands in 2009 initially as Chief Financial & Operating Officer taking over as CEO in 2014, during which he restructured and transformed the business into a brand focused, leading omni-channel retailer with successful wholesale partnerships, delivering double digit compound annual growth in sales and earnings over the past five years. In 2016, HanesBrands acquired Pacific Brands and expanded David’s role to cover Australasia and subsequently its international innerwear operations outside of the Americas. Over this period, David has been responsible for and had extensive exposure to Pacific Brands and Hanesbrands’ Asian sourcing markets, particularly China including various brand distribution partnerships in the region.
Prior to this David spent five years at Foster’s Group, where he held the role of Chief Strategy Officer responsible for corporate strategy, M&A, business development and performance improvement. In this role, David was instrumental in leading the process that ultimately led to the operational separation and demerger of the domestic beer and global wine businesses, generating significant shareholder value. Prior to Foster’s Group, David held senior consulting roles at McKinsey & Company and PwC.
I think its a good safe appointment - I've topped up again yesterday
And A$6m up front to get him (what he’s forfeited)
No doubt he will have a tax problem coming up just like Jayne
This is what are coming next.
In a trading update issued in April, a2 Milk said it continued to experience strong revenue growth across all key regions, particularly of infant nutrition products sold in China and Australia.
It said then that it expects revenue for the full year to lift by 30 per cent to around $1.7 billion thanks to strong sales growth as consumers rushed to fill their pantries with infant formula as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic over the March quarter.
In its April update, the company said it had continued to experience strong revenue growth across all regions since the release of its six-month result in late February.
It lifted its earnings margin forecast 31 to 32 per cent for the year to June from an earlier advised 30 per cent.
[QUOTE=Left field;835088]New CEO announcement here. Frankly I'm disappointed it wasn't an internal promotion.
I am also disappointed, we know the next CEO David Bortolussi has no longer enough loyalty towards his present employer.
What makes the board think that David B will give his full commitment and loyalty to ATM.
The board is admitting a lack of succession planning, the company and shareholders are paying for this.
I think people are taking the CEO thing a little extreme. Sure they need someone who is competent, but under Hrdlicka ATM still ran well. Explain if you can that a good CEO matters for ATM??
Top leaders are determining the long term future of their organisation. Hrdlicka was ways too short in the job to allow an assessment what she did for ATM (unless of course sucking tens of millions of shareholder funds - salary and shareoptions - out of the company).
For an average CEO it will take something like 5 years to assess the impact of his/her actions. You recognise a great CEO in the companies long term success. Unfortunately - most leave the job after five years, e.g. they seldom harvest what they sowed.
A good CEO for ATM will ensure that they are still a sound and growing company in 5 or 10 years from now.
A bad CEO won't care ... and probably leave in another 12 months with gold lined pockets as the above mentioned starlet ...
Correct. That is a better way of explaining what I mean. In the short term we have no clue how positive or negative someone is to a company. We all knew the Dutch guy who was in charge of Fonterra, yet what positive value did he bring?? Maybe give a CEO lower pay and put a massive incentive package if they get targets after 5 years. Of course this will never happen as it makes too much sense and not enough incentive for 50% of CEOs who get fired from their positions
(USA statistics)
https://www.kornferry.com/insights/a...ured-ceos-gone
Our new CEO David Bortolussi has posted this message to the staff via Linked In.
Well done I thought, particularly liked the sub titles.
Must say I'm a lot happier about his selection now and as other posters have noted, we simply need to trust the selection process and give him time.
Yep David presented well - if a bit stilted - and had a positive message for the A2 team. He seems to have the pedigree to take the company forward. On the face of it he appears to be a good choice and seems genuinely enthused about the opportunity.
Time will tell of course - but nobody could possibly cause such negativity as Jayne did so soon after she started....could they?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12355335
Looks to have a much better track record to take the company forward than Herdlicker.
Geoff Babidge staying on at a board level or retiring ?
I called Herdlicker as a bad hire very early on and I'm calling it now, this guy looks like a good hire.
Disc: No direct shareholding but a substantial holder of Kingfish warrants (KFLWF, potentially exercisable March 2021), and ATM is one of Kingfish's biggest positions.
The single best thing for this company right now, is a raft of large scale peer-reviewed studies showing that the A2 protein has a positive effect on general health, let alone on those with symptoms directly cause by the A1 protein. Yes, I know.... Flame away! I have my fire-proof suit on already.
Pondering a few lurking questions I have about this product, and would appreciate the more passionate followers thoughts.
I come from a farming background in NZ so have a traditionalist price sensitive view of the A1/A2 comparison. I have lived and worked in China for a few years now and all things NZ I see interest me.
I live in a small back water city in China and strangely recently in my elevator A2 formula advertising appeared.
Most Chinese mothers I bring up the subject of A2 milk with know the product and perceive the product to be the best option and are seeking affirmation of that, I generally respond it’s marketing hype.
1) One of the office girls said she pays around 300 RMB per 900 gram can (66NZD) what is the cheapest price a consumer can get in NZ?
2) I believe the company has Chinese ownership, who are these companies/people and what involvement do they have in the company operation?
3) What percentage of company is Chinese owned?
4) The distribution of product in China appears to be mainly through non mainstream channels (Friends posting from overseas or buying online from overseas and shipping. Why is this still the case now after several years, is it because the Chinese “Importer” has too high a margin?
5) There appears to be supply constraint problems sourcing the product at reasonable rate in China according to most people I question. What is stopping someone shipping a container load of this to China?
6) Does A2 own the distribution company in China or is this a third party?
7) The significant Cash A2 has earned from this business appears to be sitting idle and piling up like Pablo in the 80’s what is the plan with the cash?
8) Is there a cross over with the Chinese businesses/ people involved with A2 & Synlait?
Cheers
Attachment 11855
It appears 3/4 of company is owned by funds but potentially a fund like HSBC could be owned by a Chinese company. Is there any disclosure on Chinese ownership levels?
10.30 and results still not out? Anyone know whats going on?
Thanks SB9 certainly looking forward to it :)
Sure, we all know that revenue was guidance as per trading update in April was around $1.7b to 1.75b and EBITDA margin in the range of 31% to 32%.
And consensus NPAT is for figure around $390ml which equates to about 0.527c EPS. Appropriate multiple will depend on their outlook statements and strategic initiatives.
Guesses on SP on end of day Wednesday?
Don’t know, but I feel I little bit of tree shaking happening
I note your many questions have gone unanswered. Unfortunately this A2 investor doesn't have the time to answer them, but here are some suggestions:
1.) Keith Woodfords Blogs on A1 and A2 milk trace the history and research behind this company v well.
2.) Read the commentary contained in the last 5 or so annual reports.
Once you have done more research I'm sure your questions/concerns will be answered.
In the meantime, only 1 more sleep until we get the latest FY20 Annual report from the company, so you could wait for that.
As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.
I'm of the view the ATM bubble has to burst sooner or later.. its basically a product with not much scientific evidence behind it to support its claim. Its riding on public perception and strong marketing and that will only take it so far. Saying that, its going very well and being run very well, and the results should be positive leading to a share rise today. But with the expectation of the good results I think the price might be built in by the time it gets there. lets see. Do I need a hard hat for my first few statements?
Haha, great call re hard hats. Full PPE required for comments like that.
But seriously your views are fair but I would counter that,
a) Don't underestimate the power of a differentiated product with great marketing. I agree re science but this has never been about science. Its been about perception and great marketing which I dont see abating. Some examples of average products with great marketing which has taken them very far include (Coke, Redbull, Louis V (plus heaps of others)).
b) The real risk to ATM is tradewars. Having a single market for its products poses significant risk. As battle lines are drawn on the US/CN tradewar it will be interesting to see how this impacts ATM fortunes. Chinese can stay hungry longer than ATM can stay solvent.
c) Counter to this argument (b) is that ATM and SML have significant CN ownership levels which should protect them slightly from an tradewar fallout.
Good post Petty. When something like 30% of humans have digestive problems with cow’s milk it’s a ‘suck it and see’ situation or rather drink it and see. The A2 market advantage is the trust in the brand when marketing to a huge chinese IF market that destroyed their own local brands with the melamine scandals. I see A2 as the NZ version of Coke. Great marketing and 1st mover advantage around a simple message ‘try it and see if it works for you’. Clinical trials etc. leads to patents that then cost the earth to defend. I like the keep it simple approach - keep the formula and the mystique locked in a vault - just like Coke!
Right on Silverblizzard..LOL!!
I completely agree. As I wrote earlier: "the single best thing for this company right now, is a raft of large scale peer-reviewed studies showing that the A2 protein has a positive effect on general health, let alone on those with symptoms directly cause by the A1 protein. Yes, I know.... Flame away! I have my fire-proof suit on already."
As you say, at the moment, this product is being driven by marketing and hype, which concerns me in with a mid to long term perspective.
There is an old marketing text from the 70’s that is still in print and still available ‘Positioning - The battle for your mind’ by Al Ries & Jack Trout. ATM employ the classic marketing strategies espoused in it, eg A2 patents were based on the fact they did not contain the A1 protein Which immediately repositioned all other competitors milk as containing a problem. That left slow and arrogant Fonterra out in the cold.
Latest publication by the Hong Kong Consumer Council, founding "...all samples surveyed to be contaminated with 3-MCPD, a substance produced during the refinement of vegetable fat under high heat." Including a2milk.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...-milk-formulas
https://www.baby-kingdom.com/育兒成長/成長...#33021;-318346
https://echoice.consumer.org.hk/issue/526
https://www.consumer.org.hk/ws_chi/c...t-formula.html
New ATH, looking forward to us claiming 20% share of the Chinese IF market in 10yrs time.
It's not down ramping, I am simply sharing the news with others. Have a nice day you single minded.
Good debate on the back of my comment. But its nice to see balanced and educated responses, many forums are not so civilized.
$25 by the end of the month.
Results tomorrow?
Yep, looking forward to it
NPAT Missed consensus by about 2% I think... and on a quick look, most metrics look to be slightly disappointing...?
No worries - share price will probably still go up... just look at SUM, NPAT down 99% and most metrics deteriorating or their worst in 3 years... share price near all time high!
All about the story (not the results) and the story with ATM has been strong for a good chunk of time now.
Strong results. Anyone saying disappointing is kidding themselves, especially during these crazy covid times.
Wowza! I'm v happy with ATM results.....see here
V happy that Couta has returned...... welcome back!!
V happy that USA growth up 91%!!!!! Yeeee haaa. Go you good thing!
(Disc 60% of my portfolio....)
Results are nothing short of Exemplary to say the least, well done Geoff and Team.
And a menacing COH of $854ml as at end of Jun'20. Eye watering stuff :t_up:
According to market screener (with consensus estimates last updated on 17th August 2020)
Net sales: $1.75b (actual: $1.73b)
EBITDA: $557m (actual $549.7m)
Net income: $387m (actual $385.8m) - apologies, I read on post #16514 in this thread the consensus was for $390m, but it is $387m according to marketscreener
Pre-Tax Profit: $560m (actual $551.1m)
EPS: 52c (actual 52.4c)
So yes - actually a slight miss on some key metrics - and I certainly never said they weren't outstanding results - but outstanding results is the minimum expected from a company with a PE of over 40, and hence if they are actually below consensus, well, in my view, they are slightly disappointing, but the story is still very strong and it is a great company.
Apologies if this got anybody excited, I was really only just trying to point out a few facts.
(reference: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/ - note they might updated 2020 to no longer be an estimate, I have a screenshot of the estimate if this does happen and people don't believe my above numbers)
Very happy holder here... as usual I just wish I’d bought more...
In context, seems excellent to me. Agree with trader_jackson that it is actually a very slight 'miss' on consensus, although the NPAT figure was slightly above my own forecasts, with the revenue being slightly below. But in context of everything else going on, very solid. LOVE the US result - that was a compelling enough reason for me to hang on over the last couple of years, and I still see that as driving plenty of future growth (even in a Covid environment).
A quick check-up from some articles suggest that the result was in line with expectations. If they'd reported "missed" I could have seen some sell-off today. It looks like a solid "HOLD" signal to me at the moment.
I predict I, along with many others, will be buying a bit more today.
Who really knows how long Covid will last, and here we have a covid proof business at a large scale.
Take my money.
$854.2m in cash sitting in the bank!
Down Jones is up a record high also.
Looks like tons selling down this morning?
3% drop on opening, not what I expected !!