Anyone up for a round of golf then?
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Yes it would be terrible if the world starting feeling good about themselves again! Bring back the Bears!
Although earnings were better than expected in US*, Australia, and little old New Zealand, we must continue the doom and gloom motto that too cheap oil (of which banks have less than 5% exposure to) will cause the world to collapse.
*things were expected to be pretty bad, instead they were just 'not that good' (on the whole)
Disclosure: my portfolio has had its best 2 weeks ever, increasing 10%
NZ Reserve Bank governor Wheeler, thank you,the world has responded.!
It won't be oil that causes a collapse in world markets, though it may contribute as will many other factors, by far the largest being debt, or more precisely the slowing capital creation, velocity of money and inability to refinance burgeoning public, business and sovereign debt.
You're penchant for accusing all and sundry as doom and gloom, who choose to monitor global economic health and it's correlations to assets and investing in NZ, is trite and superficial. A brief period of outperformance in your personal portfolio clearly is clearly a joyous event, though will you be so emboldened when the opposite happens, or worse, perhaps much much worse?
As a matter of interest, have you personally been invested and experienced any of the previous severe equity markets declines. If so what did you do?
Being relatively young, I have not personally experienced any of the previous severe equity market declines, nor do I know everything there is to know, I am also not aware of any that was caused because of cheap oil, I would be interested to know what your view is on the "many other factors" as important headline numbers like job creation, factory output, housing and building numbers, and retail sales seem to be doing ok and in some cases beating expectations, both here, the US and Australia (although I realize there are other countries, and am probably missing alot).
My families lifestyle, including mine, changed dramatically after 2008 so in some way I do have a very sober experience of what a decline in financial markets can do.
John Cochrane, the Grumpy Economist says we can fix the world economic and financial problems with a bit of getting back to basics and doing a bit of hard yakker
Nice piece of writing anyway
Our economy is like a garden, but the garden is choked with weeds. Rather than look for some great new fertilizer to throw on it, why don’t we get down on our knees and pull up the weeds? At least we know weeding works! For another metaphor, our economy has become like a hoarder’s house. For a while he could get through the passages and keep life going, but now the junk is closing in. Well, rather than read the architectural magazines about just what the perfect house will look like, let’s get to work cleaning up the mess.
It has been stated more than once on this thread (and if you do your research ) that manufacturing output for the USA has increased a bit so that it didnt drop as much as the 2 quarters before--but it still dropped. American households are earning about the same as the early 80s(especially unskilled)---(Corporations are doing just fine) the country is going in the direction of a giant Walmart where the owners are disgustingly rich ,while the working man suffers.
The mechanics of this ''tampered with'' economy we live in is not an easy thing to get ones head around at times and outcomes are uncertain(and potentially disastrous)
Perhaps you should practice the art of being cautious and happy at the same time--how hard is it to have a back up plan?(other than trying to convince posters in a tiny country that all is well,and there is no need for one)
This thread is not about predicting Doom and Gloom and scoreing points if it happens--It is about putting our heads together with the intention of being best prepared to survive as best we can if things do get ugly(like they have before)
Dont forget the part where some others are sitting in a barren piece of land where even weeds will not grow and in some bizarre way ,giving them a helping hand could actually help us, further down the road.(instead of some fat world bank character coming in and buying their soul)
I completely agree with you, I am probably a bit to positive, and I agree this thread is designed to share views etc and prepare/adjust accordingly... my only 'thought' is that I do get the feel sometimes when things aren't to bad, us Kiwi's are very good at talking ourselves into an unreasonably deep hole when there probably isn't one (or at least not as deep)
I think most of the talk is about other parts of the world at this stage,but with globalization we all need to keep in touch--otherwise,just looking at the NZX its certainly not so bad.--There were some articles in the papers regarding the shock interest rate cut,that certainly did raise some concerns though---they mentioned the main concern is other countries slipping into a spiral of deflation,similar to japan,for the last decade.