Yeah but I actually bought it in the real world...
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So let's compare Serko with OCA :
Since IPO on May 5, 2017 at 79c, OCA has gone nowhere in 6 years (yes, six years) with its sp at 79c today. Ouch!
Since May 5, 2017, Serko has powered on from 35c to today's close at $3.55 - up 1000%.
Good on you with META but poor you with OCA! :scared:
Damn I must have forgot buying OCA on the IPO.
I just remember buying a large chunk at 42c selling at 86 and buying back at 86 about 2 years later.
So Balance, did you buy Serko on May 5th 2017?
Because I didn't buy OCA on the IPO, so why are we comparing?
Are we getting unbalanced again?
savage :scared: what happens when sailor rob stops buying
Respect the trend imo. The 10 and 20 ema on the weekly hasnt crossed. The last time it did, this was at $1.43 in 2021.
Just got off the phone to Bollinger, he said wait for the waxing crescent moon and the cross of the 7/13 aaemh pattern.
Then buy with outgoing tide.
Or did he say sell, I forget.
Riding the stock down from $1.43 to $0.77 is not a good thing. The maths on the drawdown work against you plus the opportunity cost over 18 months.
That’s true but only if you don’t take into account the dividends or drp. In that scenario both are under water but one is considerably less so. I’m happy to accumulate via drp, another few thousand coming my way soon. Value investors don’t worry about the share price except whether they’re getting some or more at low prices.
It is yes.
Also good to be able to instantly see stupid ideas for what they are.
Good to be able to think rationally, use common sense and question the implications, if what you were being told was actually true.
So if presented with a new idea that the Earth isn't flat it's actually square, it's not good to be open to that idea.
5000 years ago, yes be open to it.
Another glass half full guy I see. Stating the obvious. However there are many permutations about buying on the way down, the company is way oversold, the company is valued at a whole lot more, the company is profitable, the company is in a stable industry and amongst other things, just about to benefit in value by the construction cost inflation index pricing its property portfolio through the roof.
Very easy to value a share (not necessarrilly accurately) based on current assumptions such as interest rates and current demand on the market. It is a bit more difficult to value a share basing it on future events which have not materialised. But a drop in SP of 50% for a property holding company which is profitable in an economy in recession would indicate that there is a large propensity for the SP to increase. Buying in now at these bargain basement prices is a no brainier.
ARV RYM and OCA all reported results late May
Since reporting-
RYM share price up 15%
ARV share price up 8%
OCA share price down 5%
Has to be a reflection of what the market thought of the results and future outlook of each
The long entrenched ' pecking order' in the retirement sector remains in place .......market telling us something
I doubt whether that relativity (pecking order) will change any time soon
Thats presuming the market is always right. Even though you have to live by the market, it has been proven many times that in the short term the market is wrong more than it is right. The market suggested that at $1.50 the market was right, but in the longer term it was fundamentally wrong.
Or the market was right at $1.61 and then externals changed the outlook. Does anyone remember the banks being told to prepare for negative interest rates? We will all laugh about it one day. I don't see OCA as any different from 4 years ago, just the share price. Same issues, same potential.
The RV sector SP's may have finished falling and bottomed out, all RV's are up since the date that each of them bottomed out. The relative performance is RYM, then ARV, SUM and OCA. The point is though, the best buying is behind us now, so don't miss out on the sector sale of the century.
RV Sector SP Relative Performance Since Bottoming:
Date Bottomed What Bottomed RYM since ARV since SUM since OCA since 16-MarRYM 30.80% 16% 6.70% 0% 31-MarARV 22.90% 32.30% 4.30% 1.40% 18-AprSUM 21.50% 16% 13.30% 4.20% 21-AprOCA 21.20% 18.30% 12.50% 8.80%
Attachment 14641
Could be the same now, market is right but externals are changing, recession does not usually breed higher interest rates. I wonder, in this economic climate its the chicken and egg story. Is it the market that is right or wrong, our are the future fundamentals that have been misjudged. Perhaps a bit of both. At different times more of one than the other.
Well said Bottom feeder, great post.
The 5-7 years it takes to build and sell down an apartment block is what has frustrated any shareholder with a short time horizon. Villas can be built and sold in a year.
Its a classic "3 little pigs" tale when they build a wood house v`s the brick house.
The good news from here , as you imply Bottom feeder, is that the c. $400m of unsold new stock was build at yesteryear prices . Hence OCA achieving 38% new sales margin.
The CFO said 6 months ago..." imagine what it might cost to build the Helier if it was to start today".
With so many " brick house' now finished ready to sell down , all we need now is the market turnover to return to normal and it seems pretty clear that is currently underway.
My original comment was that the ‘pecking order’ (relative performance) nearly always has OCA at the bottom.
Not just now but been like it for years …no matter what you are measuring.
For this discussion when OCA share price takes off it is very likely that the RYM, SUM and ARV share price will do even better
I wonder why OCA is nearly always at the bottom of the pile ……..the market per se must have a reason.
Come on folks....once the sales of assets go through in August...the debts gearing is down to around 30-32%...very conservative really.
Not to mention most of OCA debts are locked in at 4% and mature in 2028
I called my insider again...he said u all talking sheet porky about CR...get a life people
Oceania has
entered into an agreement to sell two of its Auckland care sites to a
smaller, experienced operator. This agreement is conditional on the
purchaser obtaining the consent of the Ministry of Health and Te Whatu Ora to
the transfer and the sale is expected to settle in August 2023.
Agree, it's tedious and boring. Some can't help themselves though, they hang on a false 'reputation' (which is based on number posts, not the wisdom of posts) and enjoy winding up other shareholders by posting innuendo and sarcasm. To give them the benefit of the doubt, they do it for sport, for fun, because to not give that benefit of doubt, they could only being doing it to try and influence opinion of others to buy or sell so that they can better their own circumstances.
OCA ends week at 74 cents ……3 consecutive down weeks
Market telling us something, eso as others doing OK
But then getting closer to Rob’s 39 cents
Market is telling us the SP is 74cents. Dont read too much into it. Its now ex dividend, next dividend in six months. Why buy now. The market will pick up in a several months.
exactly , as proved in all history timing is important. OCA isa prime example if you brought at 1.40 +
will you ever get your money back ?
and if you do how many yr's is it going to take ?
of course no - one knows the answer to these questions precisely but they are valid questions in regards to your
likely % return in the long run , compounding when you have negative returns in the mix is not a very good situation to be in so i would suggest all the people who raVE on about long term compounding on this thread do some home work in regard s to yr's which involve negative compounding. you will realize this makes a huge difference to your long term returns
anyway back to my timing the market's .... still on track to reach nz rich list lol
Remember, you brought the beers you bought to the party.
Not really, the price you pay will have little effect over the long term unless you pay an immense multiple.
Your results will be determined by returns on capital and ability to reinvest.
All simple math.
Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you’re not going to make much different than a 6% return even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with a fine result. So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.
Well on the contrary no, it virtually guarantees it.
If I were you I'd spend a few weeks examining the 'ability to reinvest' aspect and the method of financing.
Or, like other sub performing imbeciles you can just watch the stock price and form conclusions based on that.
Holders should note that the Board and Senior Executive Officers all participated in the DRIP applying to the recent dividend payment, as per the Disclosure Notices filed today. Seems a good sign of confidence to me.
I would be even happier if more of the current properties presently "held for sale" reach the status of an unconditional agreement at prices that don't force a lowering of valuations of the stock intended to be retained long term on the balance sheet. Just two to settle in August so far, from 9 or 10 in that category, indicates disposal isn't easy at this time. But the reweighting of OCA's portfolio of properties away from those that are care/labour intensive in circumstances where the Government is less than generous in subsidy support is definitely the correct strategy to benefit holders going forward.
Yep, good sign Directors take the DRP
Liz Coutts doing well ….has managed to get her average down to $1.042 (has paid between $0.56 and $1.53 over the years)
She is now $584,824 under water on her investment in OCA
But SailorRob would say she doing the right thing and will be ‘fine’
Liz Coutts beside taking the DRP has been a regular buyer on market over the years as well.
Hasn’t acquired any on market recently …maybe her confidence is waning.
And those that did get allocated shares at a price above the now current price. While I appreciate the merits of DRP, I prefer to direct credit all divs to an investment fund and allow it to accumulate so I can make a play on a stock when I think the price is right. Like OCA now price. Sometimes I will invest div upon receipt if the opportunity presents itself. Each to their own.
I have taken myself off all DRP in any share I own as most of the time they go below that and then I just top up manually. It has saved me thousands over the years doing it that way. DRP are good for those that have a very small shareholding or can’t be bothered.
Of course in certain shares this may be different, but the shares I own it has a bad history.
I think this is a good ploy for some, (I don't bother myself though as I'm only dealing with less than 1000 shares allocated from DRP) historically you have been able to pick up shares on market within a few days of the dividend at a better discount than that offered by the DRP.
Small holders the difference may be absorbed by brokerage fees, so maybe the DRP makes sense.
Yep same here, occasionally I'll put my dividend into another dividend paying share, as long as I compounding :)
Seriously? This worries you?
Recurring theme it seems...the DRP cash doesnt evaporate, it stays inside the company. If you dont take up the DRP you have some dividend cash and own a slightly smaller piece of a slightly larger pie. A DRP discount is typically less than a share price oscillates in a week so it doesnt seem fruitful to get uptight about it until e.g. a broker gets a 20% discount on a placement.
Politically though your voting power indeed decreases. I wonder how many everyday stockholders really care about voting rights shrinking by 1%. Maybe they do, certainly if one aspires to taking control of the company one ought take up the DRP.
Probably not going to be material, but am against the DRP based on a cum dividend SP. OK 1% discount and no brokerage. But better to take control yourself. If an investor was so worried about minor dilution they could either keep buying shares or never sell any shares. So its always a dynamic situation.
Liz Coutts spending wisely for the long term https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413817
We all know this share will rise over time with interest rates dropping and if sales targets are met. People will live on and OCA will shine. Just which year will they shine 2025 or 2026
I've managed to build a significant position in OCA, holding 1M shares at an average price of 85 cents. My key concern is a potential early takeover at around $1.00 per share, which, despite offering a slight profit, doesn't reflect the company's true value. I believe MET, SUM, or RYM could be interested in OCA for industry consolidation. A takeover at a higher share price would be ideal, capturing OCA's intrinsic value and the efficiencies of a combined entity. Patience is my strategy as I wait for the market to recognise OCA's potential.
Joh13...not wise put all your money in one stock. Spread your risk!!!
Takeover??? Where SuM, Ryman and Met get the money from...all of them are in 30-35% gearing...
$1 takeover offer will be around $800million!!
Gosh....stop dreaming n talking porky....maybe private fundies
maybe the least of your concerns considering 850k you have invested will earn you a little over 2% after tax return while you wait and hope for your takeover/ yr compared to a 6% term deposit before tax current opportunity :scared: madness ?
basing your gamble on an unlikely takeover ( in my opinion ) when all participate's are conserving cash :scared: madness
anyway good luck maybe the price will rise one day over a dollar and you will do very well or maybe it will be 70c and you will have lost big in time and money that is the stock market
When and where did they say that they had put all money in one stock?
A significant position could be 10% of equity funds, meaning a 8/9 million dollar equity portfolio, then property and other stuff.
We don't know.
I would not assume as a holder of 4000 shares to be giving advice to a holder of a million.
Spread your risk a bit of a share market cliche. I’m a Munger man. If you have done your due diligence and researched fully back yourself and thump it. You won’t be right all the time so long as you get it right most of the time which is not to hard.
Currently I hold positions in three companies which is easy to manage.
My rule with the stock market....u only invest what u can afford to lose...
I might only have 4000 shares on this dog....but I spread my $10m fund across all the markets
Was good buying in the covid panic time of 2020 eh Joh
Suppose you bought heaps in the early stages of OCA being listed in 2017/2018
Like many the last couple of years must have been a bit painful for you. You were touting $1.90 not that long ago and added you were not concerned with the short term price because $7.00 in 10 years is what I’m looking at.
Never mind …..stick with it as your day will come and you’re still young.
the only time stuff gets disclosed is when it no longer works ..... you should know this from all your very in depth readings on buffett you have done
if he had disclosed his secret sailor rob may well be one of the richist people on the planet but alas you are not
All the markets...aka properties, shares, deposit, gold, weeds, women etc
The topic is “OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages:” If posters want to keep taking the piss out of other posters can they please open a new thread elsewhere. Back to reasoned respectful debate please.
We are all debating ethically....