Totally agree, let's get back to talking about markets rather than the fixation on one person's approach to trading.
Any thoughts Fiordland Moose?
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"Toxic Combo" Of Recent Events To De-Stabilize Markets? | Luke Gromen – Macro Analyst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4
36:42 The Dollar Milkshake Theory.
Brent Johnson has the dollar milkshake theory, which says if there is a global recession, if there are hard times a lot of countries are in even worse shape than us and when people get scared you have the euro dollar dynamics that that are pushing capital towards the U.S.
In times of panic capital runs to safety.
Could panicked capital around the rest of the world flow in rather than net selling our Treasuries?
When I say the net International Investment position of the U.S has gone from negative 10 in 2008 to negative 70 you know two years ago that's the capital flowing here. It's all here now, it's all here.
Where our views disagree is yes others are more in trouble. What are they going to do? They need dollars yes They're going to sell their dollar assets.
Yes, some capital will flow here but there is no capital to flow here. It's already here and they need dollars. They don't need Apple, they don't need Treasuries, they need dollars and so they will sell Apple, Treasuries, real estate etc get those dollars.
And you can see this unwinding in the other direction.
You can see it in the net International Investment position since December 2021 it's gone from negative 70 to negative 65.
So just unwinding five points of net International Investment position as a percent of GDP.
Look what it's done to the Treasury market. We had the worst year in the Treasury market, we had the worst bond market in 150 years.
40:06 This chart shows you when the market began discounting the US going into fiscal dominance which is the U.S can't pay its debt without the FED printing the money.
Bond vigilantes - it's when the bond market kind of wakes up and says hey you I don't really believe what you policymakers are selling me and I'm going to start taking yields higher because I want to be compensated for the greater risk that I see in the system.
When you run 200 billion dollars, you're a sovereign wealth fund and the United States starts raising rates like that and you do the math, and you go they can't afford those rates without printing the money.
You buy stocks and you sell bonds just like that chart shows because stocks will hedge your inflation and bonds will get killed on a real basis. that's what that chart is telling me.
What's not ok is the false claims being made, such as this:
Daytr has "done very well in recent times being short US indices, but switch to long in the last week or so"....? I call bullsh*t on that. How has he done it? The S&P and the Nasdaq have been on absolute tears, a massive bull market, for a good year now.
My only thought is that while there is a lot to be said for robust debate once it is clear everyone's point has been well and truly made it's time to move on. Endless back and forth, bickering, snipping, trolling, etc. is totally pointless and dilutes the value of a discussion forum. People have a lot to offer but sometimes it's like we get it - we don't need 10x posts a day from the same person on the same subject. Buffett is good, free float is good, ETF's are great, geographic diversification is good, a small clutch of people don't think daytr was a once a trader...fine, good, great and discuss...but my god do people sit glued to their computer or phone hitting refresh all day so they can make their next childish retort? It's worse than a daycare where at least the teachers can tell the children to separate. Witnessing it makes me embarrassed that I bother to contribute.
An approach to trading by Daytr that chooses a cash fund over an obvious, massive, and lengthy US bull market, and yet he somehow "did very well" being short the same indices over that time as well, whilst he manages to "day trade" while being asleep when the markets are open. It's either incompetence, or untruths, or both; take your pick.
I've got no issue with you or anyone else calling their perceived calls of BS. It's a healthy part of the debate if it is truly held and many of us do it (including myself). You've gotten your point across. You've given your reasons why. You also did so many weeks ago. There is no doubt from anyone who reads this thread as to where you stand.
so what point is there spending your days, your nights, your weekends, sending off rapid fire posts on the same subject ad nauseam?