Jeeze Mav & Sailor Boy, sounds like you’ll be voting Labour !
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Jeeze Mav & Sailor Boy, sounds like you’ll be voting Labour !
I hope Mav was posting his view 'It has been the most pleasant economy reshape I`ve ever witnessed' with a very strong dose of skepticism as that's certainly what I meant with my reply.
What he has witnessed is so far fact, but what I meant to convey is that 'Mav you been round long enough to know that this ain't how things work'
Time will tell, maybe this time is different.
Certainly no reason that prefect landings cannot be engineered.
But if you think Orr and G Robertson can engineer a perfect landing then I have something to sell you.
Remember.
If you want a 6% return and you are getting $650 a week in rent with a massive 50% margin (margin is under unprecedented attack) then you can only pay $280k
In other words 280k is overvalued for most of our provincial housing stock.
Yes....what I was really thinking was....hmmmm remember us recently discussing how accurate these guys were with respect to House Price Forecasts prior to COVID...and now we suddenly believe them. And....do we really, does the gov'ment really want house prices to recover ? A couple of bits highlighted below.
No 'we' don't believe them, seems like Mav likes the work they have presented but perhaps more on a return to normal turnover basis.
I can't see why turnover wont at least move towards more normal levels, but I would not have a clue. Perhaps turnover since the GFC has been higher than what a normal society requires in the from of non speculative transactional volume?
But ANZ have negative predictive ability, in other words if you went opposed to their predictions over the years you would end up having some ability to actually predict what was going to happen.
I wouldnt trust the bank economists. Probably worried about their security position on loans in arrears. Give a good pump is the answer.
I remember when the previous ANZ NZ CEO David something a few years back did a write up in the NZ herald taking the high road saying the RBNZ needed to put deposit limits on mortgages so that the market didnt overheat. I asked someone one high up near the senior leadership team what that was all about and he laughed and said ANZ was running out of money to lend because if equity requirements and the CEO didnt want to lose market share lol...... answer was to force everyone to lend less
Bank reports are purely for themselves......
Sally Evans... director bought 60000 shares at 79c
Great post and should be damned obvious.
These banks are leveraged way more than what people realise, if you look at assets vs equity and don't bother with all Orrs complex tier 1xyz ratios etc.
It only takes a slight mismanagement on the asset side (loan book) to totally wipe them out.
Yes, what would be ideal is large insider purchases with a falling share price.
What I mean is that directors buying shows confidence in the business, I never want a falling share price due to declining business fundamentals, I only want a declining share price with no change or an improvement in the business.
If the present value of net future cash flows falls and the share price falls as well then that is not a desirable outcome.
It 'should' support the price going up, but that's not what I want. And often it has no affect.