100% correct.
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All the recent marketing to ‘raise brand awareness’ might come in handy now
Maybe they need to change tack and do more of a hard sell
Hi Jeff
That figure of $178.8 incudes new sales. I believe the correct figure for the dollar value of resales is $131m - but we need to be looking at the expiring ORA's to get the $ value of departures. Not the value paid by incoming residents. But the good news is the guesstimate of 275 is close.
$131m for resales is made up of $27m for resale gains plus $104m for the original value for outgoing residents ORAs. (Note 27/131 is close to the disclosed resale margin of 21%). $104m for outgoing residents ORAs is made up of cash outflows of $79m plus $25m DMF retained. All from page 22.
Sense checking the $131m we know we have 182 care suite sales @ $324k each gives $59m. And we have 98 units sold at a guessed average value of $736k to give the remaining $72m. Add $72m and $59m gives $131m for total resales value. $736k is around half way between the resales prices for villas and apartments.
Winner
FY23: average resale price in FY23 was $468k (being $131m/280). Deduct resale gains of 21% and I'm guessing average price for departed residents was $387k. This is assuming the same sales mix of units and care suites.
Using the departed value above of $104m divided into $387k original price, I estimate there were around 270 departures in FY23. Very close to the 275 guesstimate. These numbers exclude departures who did not have an ORA (e.g. care suites clients who pay weekly).
Average tenure for care suites is about 2 years. But a number of those are sold without an ORA. Average tenure for units is 5-7 years. But you can't divide those figures into the opening or closing stocks given the trajectory of stock growth over the last 5-7 years, the confusion surrounding unsold vs unoccupied care suites and there is a certain percentage unsold.
Thanks Ferg, much appreciated.
looks like breaking out from post results digestion ... not uncommom for oca to have a wee run post results if market likes them
also national flip flopping on building density etc just creates uncertainty thus tightening the market more providing a bottom quicker to the market as everybodty will wait till after election now to build
So even is the profit estimates as provided by Craigs are accurate out to 2026 and we apply what Mav has suggested is a paltry PE of 13 (I have no strong feeling on that) but 13 may indeed be low considering the runway for growth and the by then pristine balance sheet...
We get to a near billion in market cap.
Which is a compounded 20% return from here plus dividends.
Not too shabby and that's on very conservative estimates.
Oooh I'm back in positive this afternoon :)