Not impressed, surely a sign of an unhealthy workaholic culture in that organization. The CEO of a company that makes most of its money from Churches encouraging its staff to work on Good Friday..oh dear, that's more than a little sad really...
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Or an enlightened modern employer who allows the transfer of public holidays to days that better suit the employee rather than an enforced day off due to some archaic one dimensional observance by a shrinking population.
Just as well they were at work since they arent even able to buy a drink
If you are into the future of giving and why Push will make zillions you can download a report here
https://echurch.com/digital-giving-t...t-3-takeaways/
Should be exciting to see what they pull through, they currently only have 2% market share of $40Bn industry, plenty of room to grow.
It could be a nervous time leading to the 11th. There have been good rallies on both markets since Chris’s latest tweet. Going to be an interesting week ahead.
You heard it here first. Mid-Monday morning for quart results. Share price at $5 by the call on Wednesday.
I buy optimism by the barrel on this one :cool:
Up a bit today. Excitement building for tomorrow's Investor Briefing. 11.00 am and its all on. Hopefully those easter bunnies delivered!
edit. Up 2.4% for the day
Agreed the team at PPH don't disappoint, they under promise and over deliver, I won't expect anything different tomorrow.
Look for $130 million ACMR or more tomorrow! I'm expecting $140 million ACMR with blessings from the dream team!
$200 US million ACMR target by year end ;)
PPH have forecast a dip in ACMR in this soft giving quarter following Christmas... a decline in ACMR would have been the case in previous years if customer numbers were growing at the more modest pace they are now and that is what ( hopefully ) the market is expecting leading into the update...
90-110
Yes they have said that though I’m optimistic they will increase it
“Given seasonality, we expect ACMR and ARPC to decrease over the current quarter ending 31 March 2018, before steadily growing over the rest of the calendar year to 31 December 2018. We also expect Customer unit churn to decrease and Customer numbers to gradually strengthen over the calendar year.”
Setting expectations low for sure
Whatever, whether a bit on the low side or a boomer the report will be brilliant
Quarterly numbers are just ‘noise’
Don’t forget the big picture and continue to believe the story
I’m more interested in the financials come May and revenue and cash flow numbers ...much more important than this ACMR crap ....but even the financials will be amazing.
Just in
Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, 'Pushpay' or 'the Company') is pleased to announce that the Company doubled total revenue to US$70 million (unaudited) over the fiscal year to 31 March 2018. In addition, the Company surpassed US$3 billion in Annualised Processing Volume (previously Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume), an increase of 69.1% over the year to 31 March 2018.
Yup. gonna need a bigger barrel
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316611
A masterpiece of an announcement ....says so many brilliant things makes you wonder what’s missing
Okay I admit I was prematue with my optimism, but this is dissappointing
I dont think we are going to see a rocket under the share price like ATM! But that's ok. Just a nice steady increase will be happy days as far as I am concerned.
On ASX current bid = $4.21 or NZD$4.44. Will be an interesting open. In NZ currently trading at $4.35
The numbers for me show something wildly off, did they sign a lot of customers for trials on offers they couldn't refuse then afterwards drop off? Not only is ACMR off by a large margin, but monthly payment averages a down quite a bit. Cause ACMR went from last quarter 106 million to 86 million this quarter a loss of 20 million. Looks like they boosted something temporarily just to get to the 100 million target cause they knew they wouldn't have gotten to it this quarter. If someone says they will write you a letter and sends you a postcard does it really count? Revenue numbers are great without context, but reason ACMR is important as its the lead indicator for what revenue to expect.
Isn't that explained by seasonal changes with Christmas and end of financial year in the US falling in the previous quarter ? You will see in the graph on page 3 in the announcement that ARPC was $ 790 in the September quarter, then shot up to $ 1,233 in December quarter and down to $ 989 in the March quarter, which is 36% higher than same quarter last year.
Remember PPH get most of their revenue by clipping the ticket on donations NOT from subscription fees. So AMCR goes up when lots of donations are made and down in quiet periods. The December quarter contains Christmas and Thanksgiving both massive giving periods, thus the jump in AMCR in every December quarter.
Same will happen this year except this year we will have even more customers so it will be even bigger.
You're comparing the wrong quarter. PPH always state that the Q1 results show a dip. In 2017 the ACMR for Q1 was US$50M. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/299761
So their announcement of ACMR at $86M this 2018 Q1 is actually pretty good.
True, however - jump in customer numbers wasn't that big in the past year, was it (+8%)? Jump in per customer income wasn't outrageous either. Market saturation appears to be already pretty close if they have already 65% of the top 20 as customers.
I guess it is amazing how they can spin such quite slow growth and worse - growth potential into such a positive sounding announcement, but I guess at some stage will punters probably start asking in what time frame they will be able to pay back their $ 1.2 billion market cap with $70 m revenue (which so far is more than eaten by cost).
No doubt - they should be able to turn at some stage into a sustainable (i.e. money making vs money losing) business, but the question I would ask myself is - how long will it take for them to pay back their outrageous market cap plus accrued interest, considering as well that their time window to make hay before the next big payment thingy arrives might be limited in today's fast changing world? I am pretty sure the answer (re payback of market cap) will be: forever.
Still, punters are often happy to allow hype to drive the SP up (just look at crypto-currencies, and these make no money at all). So, yes - there might well be good trading opportunities ahead.
Discl: used to hold a small parcel, but currently don't;
Just looking at the trading numbers. Looks like SP went during amateur hour up to $4.40 ... and downhill from there. Not a good sign - SP tried already several time in the last months to break through the $4.40 and never succeeded. Problem is - if it can't get up, it likely will go down. Will it stay above 400? Who knows?
Actually out of all things to be concerned about I'm less concerned with ARPC since its not exactly the clearest indicator since its muddled by them signing bigger clients or charging high fees to exisiting clients. Overall its a good sign that its up, though theres a gap between ARPC and ACMR, ARPC dropped 19.8%, while ACMR dropped 18.8% so not perfectly proportional, which would explain a loss of large fee paying customers replaced by smaller ones.
My concern lies with the fact that Pushpays fee structure as previously noted (though not sure if they have changed it) is that large customers generally have a fixed monthly fee and small customers are offered a pay per giver structure in order to make it cost efficient. If Pushpay does infact have a fixed fee scenario with the large customers then ACMR should not fluctuate so largely unless they are experiencing a large churn on their large customers. I think the fee structure needs more clarity. They have stated churn needs to be decreased but has not stated their churn%
Its fair to say we're comparing the wrong quarters, but when you compare Q1 2018 to Q1 2017 its quite clear growth has dropped off, growth has gone from 157.7% to 46.8%, which for a growth company has dropped off quite a bit. Generally growth is hard to sustain as a company grows larger so the worrying sign is that growth might be even less going forward. Decrease in growth badly affects the valuation of a company particularly a newly minted billion dollar one.
Market digesting the news and not liking it. Down 4% at the moment
No matter which way you look atthe latest numbers this is the worst quarter ever growth wie (annual) in bith ACMR and customer numbers. Growth decay rate took a real dive .....hard to see how ACMR as at the end of the year will be anywhere near some of the numbers I've seen thrown around on here.
I just cant fathom why the market reckons what it is at the moment. Revenues of $70m convert to Cash Revenues of about $45m once Mastercard et al take there cut. Heck a market cap ~US$800m is about 18 times revenue
So on fundamentals stuffed (in my view( but heck this a follow the squiggly line on a chart stock .... sort of still looking OK and long term still heading up so might get to $5 or $6 later this year as long as the faithful remain faithful.
Must say got to give Chris 120% for that masterpiece of an announcement. Was the conference call just as good
Keep the faith and no worries ....but I'm getting worried (just a bit)
I got sucked into this break even stuff at the end of this year and all we need is growth growth growth attitude. I stay away from these investments unless for a quick buck. I lost way to much money on promises made by company directors about breaking even. Until it makes a profit to me it’s a lemon.
Share price recovering after sinking a fair bit
That’s good ...no worries now
Think you might have this a tab wrong Winner?
$3 billion in Annual Processing nets to Revenues of $70 mill. Aren't you double counting the MasterCard costs etc if you reduce Revenue to $45 Mill?
Attachment 9616
I guess I could be a bit glum with the drop today. But I am fortunate to have other performers who see me overall up at end of day.
Revenues include the gross amount of processing revenues received (presumably what they charge their customers)
MasterCard et al fees are shown in cost of sales (processing fees).
Look at the Cash Flow Statement and you will note that the ‘receipts from customers’ has the processing fees deducted. This in Pushpay words reflects the ‘physical cash in-flows’
Many analysts deduct such ‘tranasction fees’ from reported revenues and ACMR when assessing multiples, esp if they are significantly relative to total revenues.
Guru investor Ben Graham once said “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine”
Wonder what this means to Pushpay at the current point in time
It looks like their cash burn rate is improving. Their net cash position down only $2.3M compared to previous quarter of $5.3M. At this rate I'd expect them to be cashflow positive within two quarters and certainly by end of CY18 end as they have signalled.
Are you trying to say in a PC way that slowing growth in receipts and revenue, with a high transactional cost of business, substantial overheads (costs), with emerging global payments enablers as competition, in an uncertain unquantified market share (growth opportunity), against a priced-in SP at umpteen multiples of cap-value versus income, forecasting break-even (profitability) ... soon, hopefully, not to mention the macro-situation of vulnerable toppy capital markets, it's hard to reconcile whether investing or holding or bailing is a good decision, right now?
I get yah winner, this imho is subtly turning into a really slick investor sales pitch when the facts are suggesting caution. Already in? Sure hold, might be getting bumpy though. Buy in now? Hmmm, might be better buying later, not sure, hard to tell with the glossy reporting. Longevity? Difficult to put a finger on that with global payments enablers emerging. Sell? Uh hmm, be nimble and emotionally disconnected, it's only an investment, you don't have to buy or hold the 'story' forever and ever.
It's not the time for rose coloured spectacles.
Red flag when you hear a company say things like ‘there was an extra Sunday in the last quarter’ to make current quarter sound better ..and accidentally on purpose leaving out a long used chart that didn’t look too good was another red flag.
Growth rate decay has been consistently in the 80%/90% range for a while but droppong to about 50% in March quarter is pretty bad.
Maybe this quarter is an aberration ....let’s hope so.
Share held up yesterday afternoon. Let’s put the activity yesterday down to buy the rumour sell the fact ..and maybe profit taking.
Watching the squiggly line closely ...and hoping
So 111 sales people and only 86 new customers in the quarter
Doesn’t sound that good for a hypergrowth company
I don't think we should overlook the fact that they received 36% YoY increase in revenue per customer last quarter. I think this is a significant number in the latest release. The other interesting and positive number is their forecast (yes yet to be realised) for Gross Margin to grow from the current 54% to over 60%.
Agree though that growth in customer numbers is below expectations and a bit disappointing.
Masters of spin stuff again
If H218 margin is 54% thats lower than H217 (55%) and a lot lower than H118 which was over 57%
So setting things up to explain a poor margin performance when financials are released ....but suppose is a positive if they achieve 60% in H119
Yes, its bit disappointing to see the current reported quarter numbers are not what the market would've liked.
Don't forget to look at long term picture though, cash flow break even by end of this year and US listing later this as well. These are two very key milestones look ahead. And am sure Chris will leave no stone unturned to make sure the company achieves the best possible results before that.
I'm watching closely for a top up opportunity if price get really silly levels.
With you there on the DCF ....at best with outrageous assumptions I struggle to get $3
But there are ‘greater fools’ out there ...I hope in the USA
Your creativity pretty good BP ......somebody once said most creativity is much about doing the actual work than it is about being a frickin genius
We better be careful here mate ....the believers might turn on us.
TA suggests the turn away from a (perfect) triple top high will test the horizontal support low's around 3.68-3.70, maybe even tomorrow (it's been a sideways range-trade since the January high suggesting uncertainty).
If that breaks down, 3.3-3.4 support is strong. That's how it goes with strong growth stocks, there's multiple strong technical supports around the previous consolidations where after it boosted higher.
The results posted aren't encouraging for the fundamentals which the market has priced in quickly, perhaps surprisingly quickly for the devoted and not-so-nimble, but that doesn't suggest that a rout is imminent, far from it.
The question is how far sentiment against faltering fundamentals will take this down as there are so many bullish price points offering SP support (buyer confidence) below here, a full-on reversal is unlikely imho unless an external event compounds negative sentiment, which is anyones guess in this toppy market climate.
BAA
ACMR ended up more or less in line with what I was expecting.
I continue to hold the view that the low hanging fruit (big churches) has already been picked.
Its clear the growth rate is slowing.
Its not clear how they will address this, in fact a recent print edition Herald article this week suggested they would no longer focus on small medium churches.
Perhaps they will break even in 4Q 2018, perhaps they will miss yet again. I think on the balance of probabilities they will miss again and in Q1 2019 they will still be cash flow negative remembering that Q4 is their peak revenue quarter.
If they float this year as planned its an absolute lottery how U.S. investors will perceive their future prospects. I note this is right on the brink of breaking down through the 100 day MA. I wish investors well but this is too speculative for me.
From memory there was a time when they predicted to turn cash flow positive in FY 2017. Looks like they changed their mind on this somewhere on the way - they still are writing losses.
Now - I am sure, there was a good reason for this delay, there always is ;). However - I would not bet against the beagles inkling that they might find another good reason not to be cash flow positive come end of FY 2018.
Hey BP, you didn't copy that response from early in the DIL or ATM threads did you ? Reminds me of that discussion way back when, like quite a few comments on here of late :-)
Not saying they're wrong (in fact agree with many) but believe only time will tell when one invests in relative startups like PPH, DIL and ATM early on.
I am sure you can find similar comments as well on the WYN, PEB, EVO, MPG, IQE or CBL threads ;); And yes - you are right, only with 20/20 hindsight do we know whether raised concerns eventuated or not.
This is the nature of uncertainty. The future is fuzzy and even if we are able to calculate likelihoods we don't know whether risks will eventuate or not (otherwise they would not be risks but certainties) :).
So - what exactly does it prove that some posters pointed as well to risks in companies which happened to be (with hindsight) successful?
Looking at PPH - I never said that there is no chance of them turning into a sustainable business. I just find it difficult to imagine credible future revenues and margins for them which would justify the current share price. Having said that - it is not unusual for SP's to get ahead of themselves and to overshoot the securities long term value. This is still much more difficult to predict and the domain of traders ...
Totally agree BP. My post was just tongue in cheek. I only pointed to PPH, ATM and DIL as I invested in them but never in the others (except PEB for 1 week) you mentioned. All these companies are inherently difficult to assess and guess where the future will go for them, but of course we all try and have to rely on our own best guess. Many posters believed DIL would never be any good as they had only one product, like we're hearing with PPH.
But the discussion here is mostly very helpful and good to see the different views people hold.
yeah, sorry, right you are Iceman. Not sure what I was remembering. Some other company perhaps. Calendar year 2017 became December 2017 and now December 2018. Beagle's prediction 1Q18.
Hey BP can you not see any growth coming from other countries or other applications other than religion.I can so much so that I just bought some more.There are huge markets opening up all the time,as the world seems to go online,and not just financial ones Push Pay can be used for countless other applications in the information swapping markets etc.
Absolutely - and there are only a million other companies operating in the same domain (and some very succesful and much bigger than PPH).
I am sure that PPH will play them all as the Silver ferns played Malawi ... :p
OK - withdraw and apologize ... of course there might be a chance for them to grow into other areas, similar to PEB turning successful in Singapore, Spain, NZ or Australia. However - this growth into different industries or countries does not seem to be that easy.
Didn't they talk already years ago about moving into the education sector? I would not know whether they have there a fighting chance, but if they do, than they better ramp up their sales staff again. Ouch - more cost - later break even, another delay ...
I think the most interesting aspect of this most recent release was they have changed yet again what yardstick they're measuring their success upon.
If my memory serves me correctly they changed their ACMR calculation methodology a number of times last year.
Now they are saying their emphasis is on GAAP, (generally accepted accounting principle's) for measurement of revenue.
A cynical bean counter could very easily make the case that this latest change is yet another change / attempt to show their results in the absolute best possible light.
One of the most fundamental underlying basics of accounting is that of consistency. Whatever measurement yardstick you use, make it consistent.
https://www.aicpa.org/Research/Stand...s/AU-00420.pdf
PPH the masters at creativity and appear to have ignored conventional generally accepted accounting principle's right up to the point where it first suits them...does that seem a little odd to anyone else ?
Any way you slice and dice this it would appear the easy low hanging fruit, (the big churches) has already been picked and the growth rate is declining.
My personal measurement yardstick favorite is earnings per share.
I am just a simple dog and these interestingly different multiples of earnings measured so many varying ways I have lost count, to suit the various circumstances is far too creative for my liking. Whether their growth ever translates into real earnings is where all the doubt lies for me. Glad to be out and have my previous stake in something far more tangible, (Cash).
Credit to Beagle for getting through that post without mentioning a loss of 'faith', it must've been tempting....
Not sure if anyone read the Dec - 17 update or not, assuming literacy is not an issue this result was like inline with what ( expectations should have been )...
EX DEC17 BREIFING:
"Given seasonality, we expect ACMR to decrease over the current quarter ending 31 March 2018, before steadily growing over the rest of the calendar year to 31 December 2018. Pushpay expects to grow its ACMR based on further development of its product, direct sales, referrals strategy and through targeting customers that have existing relationships with Pushpay’s strategic channel partners and other distribution partners" - check
"Pushpay will begin providing quarterly revenue targets when it releases its quarterly operational update for the 31 March 2018 quarter on 11 April 2018. From the 30 June 2018 quarter and onwards, Pushpay will release its quarterly operational updates on the first Wednesday of the second month following each quarter end. Please refer to the end of this announcement for upcoming investor dates." - check
"Pushpay remains in a position to reach its targets of FY18 NZ GAAP revenue guidance of US$70 million and breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar 2018." - check
Trend is intact.
Attachment 9620
After the whole working through Easter saga, I had a look at employees reviews of Pushpay - search for Pushpay Glassdoor.
Frankly, the work environment seems pretty toxic. Long hours, small incentives and the stress of constant layoffs.
Not the kind of company that I feel comfortable investing my money in!
Perhaps a mistake in terms of $$$, but I'd rather go elsewhere for now.
One heder probably sums it up best: ""Great Place to Grow / Startups Not For the Faint-Hearted""
Glassdoor in itself is a bit of a whinge fest that I don't put any 'faith' in. Most companies on there have a whole bunch of horrible reviews. Any company over 3 stars is usually looking ok. My current employer is 3.7 and my previous employer is a 1.9, both overly harsh in my book.
I gave a tip to a friend of mine to buy some PPH when the price was still in the $2 range.He was at a function over xmas and met a member of staff from PPH.She had nothing but good things to say about the company,they were a dream to work for etc.You are always going to get the odd employee with an agenda,especially with a growing company.
Funnily enough I used Glassdoor reviews as part of my research before I bought PPH shares and came to the opposite conclusion. The majority of reviews were very positive and the few negatives came across as the kind of people that were not interested in working their way up the ladder or hard work in general.
Holding out for what the rest of the year holds.
Smaller customers may have been a relatively easy sale as the SaaS model means they didn’t have to commit to much. Selling to bigger customers means more of a solutions sale and it sounds like the sales teams didn’t transfer well. Makes sense to me (and for my sins, I ran global sales for a SaaS company for 7 years). I think pivoting to focus on the larger customers was a great move and hard to do, particularly as it can lead to a slowdown in the sales pipeline, and a lengthening of the sales cycle due to more complex sales. But it will lead to the right outcome down the track which is higher revenues and margins. Continue to accumulate. Trust the management team to keep delivering. (Disc: long from as low as $2 and as high as $4.29).
Interesting snippet from their report: " If PPH were to trade at SHOP’s 11x multiple, which we note is a company that has a similar revenue growth and gross margin profile, then it would imply an A$5.66 a share price 44% higher than current."
That's $6.00 NZD based on current exchange rate.
Up over 4% today on the ASX, which is $4.06 NZD on the current exchange rate.
400,000 just gone through at NS$3.98. Momentum building again.
17 May. Date locked in diary for Annual results
they are going to expand into schools. (intel gathered from sitting next to someone on a plane yesterday).
If Push used this profit measure like WeWork in the US do they would be showing a decent profit already.
It’s a thing called Community Adjusted EBITDA which is a profit measure which excludes interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation but also general expenses like sales and marketing, general admin, and development costs.
not GAAP but let’s hope Chris gets wind of this so he can say Push is profitable.
Funny world we live in eh
What acronym are they using to describe this new accounting convention...
EBITDAGESMGADC...yeap that really rolls off the tongue lol
Heck why don't we just go all the way and say earnings = sales and be done with it and price companies based solely on just sales...oh...hang on a minute aren't they doing that already :ohmy: Bad doubting Thomas dog, back in the kennel with me
@beagle we all know earnings = revenue less expenses. These hi flyers can spin it any way they want to but the underlying integrity of the fundamentals is not swayed by creative accounting, regardless of how they say it. Seems they think their owners (shareholders) are morons. Good luck with that.
Bumping just for the sake of it really. But results due 17 May same day as Budget. Which will have better news?
Heard this this morning .....totally irrelevant to Push but quite cute nonetheless. (Discussing Musks comments)
Cash burn questions are “boring”??? Investors need to always remember that unicorns only exist in little girls’ imaginations.
On days like today I am reminded of David Bowie's immortal lyrics
Ground Control to Major Tom (ten, nine, eight, seven, six)
Commencing countdown, engines on (five, four, three)
Check ignition and may God's love be with you (two, one, liftoff)
We'll just see if the rest apply after the 17th